美国选举政治一瞥

奥巴马取得具有历史性的胜利,使人们对美国的选举制度产生浓厚兴趣这次美国总统选举耗时21个月,总共耗资约24亿美元,终于在11月4日落下帷幕。民主党总统候选人奥巴马击败共和党对手麦凯恩。这场具有历史性的胜利使人们对美国的选举制度产生浓厚兴趣,对竞选活动中出现的一些术语似懂非懂,     

美国总统选举政治视角下中美关系思考

在近些年来的美国总统选举中,我们看到无论中国问题是成为其选举策略或是迫于舆论压力或是基于国家利益,其主张对其对华政策和中美关系走向都产生了一定的影响。通过研究冷战以来美国总统选举前后美国对华政策及中美关系的变化,探讨美国总统选举与现实的中美关系之间的关联性和影响。     

美国2008年总统大选面面观

目前．举世瞩目的美国2008年总统选举已经尘埃落定。美国民主党候选人奥巴马以压倒性优势击败共和党候选人麦凯恩．成为美国历史上第一位黑人总统．从而揭开了美国历史的新一页。今年的美国大选与往年的大选相比，有什么新特点？奥巴马何以能够战胜麦凯恩？奥巴马当选总统之后．美国的内政外交走向如何？这些都是大家关注的问题。本文试作简要分析。     

论美国战略思维矛盾的宗教根源

美国外交政策中所体现的战略思维一直存在着显著的矛盾性特点,主要体现在对外关系上的孤立主义与扩张主义之争,指导思想上的现实主义与理想主义并行,手段方式上的单边主义与多边主义并存。从主导美国信仰的新教入手,发现由新教所主导的美国信念是导致美国战略思维中以上三对矛盾出现的根源所在。并且,"拯救世界"的天赋使命观并不是美国外交政策的一个工具存在,而是美国信念一直诚心追求的终极理想目标,这也决定了美国将在通向理想的现实主义道路上继续前行。     

美国选民的一票诉求

此次美国大选,民众求变的心态压倒一切。谁能带领美国走出危机,选民就把选票投给谁复杂多变是今年美国大选的显著特点。就美国政治而言,执政8年的共和党政府,如今,内外交困。由于金融风暴持续影响,经济学权威人士预测,其影响至少要再持续一两年。随着近期经济数据的     

宪法视野下美国总统职权的理性透视

美国总统作为联邦的最高代表,是国家的象征。既然美国总统有如此显赫的地位,那么探讨美国总统的职权就显得格外重要。美国总统扮演着国家元首、外交家、武装力量总司令、立法者、最高行政长官这五个举足轻重角色,美国总统的职权也是集这五个角色的职权于一体,而不仅仅是国家元首的职权。     

“变革派”接掌美国

美国政坛自1995年以来,又一次出现民主党一党独大、一统天下的局面 2008年的美国大选,像一个热闹的舞台剧,各种角色陆续粉墨登场之后,帷幕终于徐徐落下。奥巴马将以美国第44任总统的身份,统领这个全球第一的政治、经济和军事强国;世界上不少国家则希望美国回归多边主义,更多地坐回谈判桌前。     

奥巴马白宫之路暗流汹涌

经过6个月的激烈角逐,美国伊利诺伊州国会参议员奥巴马6月3日晚最终力获民主党总统候选人提名。他不仅将成为有史以来首位非洲裔美国主要党派总统候选人,而且自此踏上了争夺总统宝座的新征程。但从各方面因素看,奥巴马通向白宫之路并不平坦。作为一名政坛新人,奥巴马能够后来居上,击败强大的对手,是今年美国总统选举的一个戏剧性结果。其中原因一部分是由于纽约州国会参议员希拉里的严重失误,但更重要的,还在于奥巴马提出的变革口号深得人心。     

精英论视角--乡村势力在基层选举中的作用

本文主要分析了农村中各种不同势力包括乡镇干部、村干部、宗族头人、富人等在基层选举中的角色定位和作用,指出了乡村政治在推进民主的进程中新旧力量的不同作用都是基于自身利益的理性选择,重要的是如何规范乡村势力,确保基层民主的稳步推进.     

选举与公共政策:美国的实践

在现代西方国家民主实践中 ,选举是各种政治行为当中普通公民控制政府最为有效的制度化工具。同其它政治行为一样 ,公民通过选举参政的主要目的是表达政治意愿 ,控制政府行为 ,使公共政策以民意为基础 ,这一过程也正是政府合法性的最重要源泉。而在选举与公共政策的关系问题上 ,历来争论颇多。本文试图通过对美国选举政治的历史考察 ,从另一种角度探讨美国选举对政府政策的控制功能。     

Are the Networks Biased? ``Calling' States in the 2000 Presidential Election

Among the controversies arising from the 2000 Presidentialelection was the accusation that media networks called, orprojected, a winner faster in those states won by Albert Gorethan in those states won by George W. Bush. We investigatethis accusation by estimating a Tobit model of the length oftime between states' poll closing times and the times at whichCNN projected a winner. Our results support the charge ofmedia bias. After controlling for other factors that affecthow quickly a state is called, states called for Gore werecalled 14 to 18 minutes faster than those called in favor ofBush.     

The 1988 Presidential Election in Finland

The article aims to describe and analyse the 1988 presidential election in Finland. The parties and candidates in the election are presented and the electoral system is discussed. For the first time a double-vote system was used in which there are two ballots, one for the direct election of the president and one for the elector of the president. If a candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote, then that candidate is elected. If, however, no candidate receives 50 percent or more of the vote, then the electoral college elects the president. Although it was fairly certain that the incumbent president Mauno Koivisto would be re-elected, the campaign was a heated one, with the electorate very politically engaged. It is concluded that despite the fact regional differences between north and south Finland were aggravated—the candidate for the opposition, Paavo Väyrynen, received considerable support especially in northern Finland-the presidential election showed that the Finnish political system functions relatively smoothly and that its overall effect is highly legitimizing.     

The 2000 American Presidential Election

Abstract

The 2000 Presidential election was one of the longest, most expensive and closest in American history. It was the Presidential election that exposed the flaws (or genius) of the electoral college system, demonstrated the imperfections of media dependency on exit polls and quick election calling, and showed how a third party candidate with just two percent of the popular vote could make the difference in the crucial state of Florida. Democrats lost states they should have won; Republicans lost every big city and most of their suburbs; and the Florida election came down to a five-to-four muddled decision by the Supreme Court. Americans collectively learned a great civics lesson: that even in a bitter, controversial contest, our candidates accept defeat graciously; the simple act of voting is not so simple; and that for all its shortcomings, the electoral college did work.     

The American Presidential Election in Perspective

In 2004 President Bush was elected more decisively than in 2000, but he would have lost if Ohio had voted for John Kerry. Turnout in a polarised electorate was the highest since the 1960s. Bush saw his party increase its existing majorities in both houses of Congress - the first Republican candidate to do so since 1924. The Republicans benefited from political trends in the South, international developments and the impact of social issues. Gains by Bush at the time of the national conventions were reduced by Kerry's strong showing in the televised debates. In the end, Americans were unwilling to eject their commander-in-chief during the wars on terror and in Iraq. While the Republicans have been advancing in national politics since the 1960s, it is unclear whether 2004 was a realigning election. There was not a realignment in the classic way that it occurred in 1932.     

The 1990 Presidential Election in Poland

This article examines the conditions that appear to have influenced political preferences of Poles during the presidential election in November 1990. The first section offers a short introduction to the political and economic situation of Poland after the rise to power of Solidarity. A short presentation of the main candidates, Walesa, Mazowiecki and Tyminski, and their political profiles is also provided here. Then results from a survey conducted one week before the first round of the presidential elections are presented and discussed. It is concluded that there were some systematic differences in socio-economic status and values of the supporters of the main candidates. Specific features of Mazowiecki's electorate were: high social position, high level of education and high income. Typical values for this group were political and economic liberalism. Characteristic of Walesa's electorate were a low level of education, higher age, and an occupation as a small businessman. Conservative Catholic morality, anti-Semitism and pro-market attitudes were overrepresented among Walesa's supporters. Tyminski's supporters, finally, were disproportionately working class and young persons. His electorate was anti-liberal in both the political and the economic meaning of the word. His supporters were often opponents of traditional Catholic morality.     

The Age Gap in the 2008 Presidential Election

The 2008 presidential election suggests a significant realignment among voters entering the electorate, with younger voters deviating considerably from older voters in their partisan preferences. Barack Obama won the vote of those under 30 years old by a 66% to 32% margin and first time voters favored him by an overwhelming margin of 69–30%. The fact that the age gap between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton during the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination contest was also among the largest age gaps in American electoral history suggests that part of the age gap was undoubtedly due to the appeal of Obama with younger Americans. Part of the age gap, however, was also due to the unpopularity of the George W. Bush administration. The strong youth vote for Obama in 2008 was thus both pro-Obama and anti-Bush in nature. The huge age gap in 2008 suggests a split of the electorate along generational lines and the long-term consequences of the age gap appear to overwhelmingly favor the Democratic Party. George W. Bush’s unpopular and divisive presidency helped to make the youngest generation of American voters increasingly Democratic in their vote preference. This suggests that if younger Americans follow other generations in keeping the same partisan voting patterns throughout their life, the Democrats are potentially poised to make considerable gains in future elections.