中美军事透明度问题的新安全观思考--兼与马伟宁(Brendan S.Mulvaney)先生商榷

仅仅以现实主义逻辑看待中美军事透明度问题,容易得出安全困境难以缓解的结论,进而失去认识该问题的必要前提,因而存在着很大局限性.从新安全观出发,积极寻求和构建互信互利、平等协作的新安全制度,才能找到安全困境的有效解决途径,也才能为解决军事透明度问题(包括能力透明和意图透明的关系)提供必要前提.树立新安全观、加强中美军事交流与合作、建立双边制度化保证的军事信任措施,是切实解决双方军事透明度问题分歧的具体途径.     

南海问题与中美新型双边军事关系的构建

南海领土争端非常复杂,与海上优势和领土主张有关的新利益和竞争背后存在战略动机。虽然20世纪90年代后期和过去十年间南海保持着相对和平,但是复现的争议及潜在的冲突升级除了凸显各声索国之间的角力外,更反映了南海问题正在由资源领土之争上升演变为中美两国的地缘战略博弈。中美两国在南海地区的互动,特别是两军愈发频繁的海空相遇以及由此引发的冲突或事故,因此中美两国发展新型双边军事关系是非常必要的。中美两国在南海附近的相遇存在冲突升级的可能性,同时,美国的亚太同盟的存在一定程度上阻碍了中美的双边军事交流。缺乏有效的沟通机制造成了中美双边军事关系的低互动性以及两国战略互信的缺失。考虑到南海作为至关重要的海上交通线,其潜在的海洋资源以及未解决的领土争端,中美两国应该如何更好地理解和解决不断出现的安全挑战并且建立管理危机的机制,这对亚太地区的重要国家(包括美国和中国)都有重大的政策启示。     

中美军事关系中的透明度问题

透明度问题是中美军事合作和交流中的一个长期问题,双方尤其对透明度的含义有着不同理解。尽管两国都从现实主义角度判断国际形势和制定国家安全政策,但因现实利益和各自历史背景不同,两国采取了迥异的政策。本文认为,中美双方应加强相互了解,并认可对方观点的合理性,以求减少分歧、奠定双方在合作中实现双赢的基础。发展军事交流与合作是解决双方透明度问题的重要途径,而两国更加透明的军事关系将有助于消除双方的利益冲突。     

中美军事关系60年回顾与思考

中美军事关系是中美关系的重要组成部分，60年来经历了从对抗到合作以及合作与斗争并存的曲折历程。中美军事关系深受国际战略格局和两国政治关系的影响，台湾问题始终是中美军事关系的核心问题。增进政治和军事互信是建立相对稳定并不断向前发展的中美建设性军事关系的重要前提。     

军事透明度与中美军事互信

近年来,美国不断有人就军事透明度批评中国,并以此为由影响中美关系的进一步发展。本文从理论和国际制度层面上对国家间军事透明度进行探讨,指明美国一面混淆军事透明度的基本概念,一面对中国进行指摘的真实用心。文章还就中美之间建立真正意义上的军事透明度与军事互信的可行性及前提条件进行了阐述。     

对中美“信任赤字”的一些看法

近年来,关于中美之间缺乏战略互信的问题在中美两国都引起了广泛讨论.最近,甚至有美国学者撰文说,中美之间的战略互疑达到了“空前高度”,两国之间正在展开一场“新冷战”.笔者对此不能认同.中美之间在许多方面是有互信的,但互信程度远低于两国之间的合作和相互依赖.现在不是过去三十多年中美互信最差的时候.中美两国实力差距的缩小是当前互信问题突出的一个原因.加强互信需要积蓄正能量,增进合作,扩大共同利益.在双方利益并不重合甚至冲突的问题上两国要多沟通、探讨、妥协.若如此,则中美双方都会有所失,也都会有所得.     

防止海上事件与中美海上军事互信机制建设

国际上已有的典型海上军事互信机制一般通过限制危险动作及骚扰行为、增强海上通讯联系、建立海军直接交流及定期审查机制来增强军事活动的可预见性,减少冲突风险。与之相比,中美海上军事安全磋商机制协定在取得进展的同时,仍缺乏实质性的行为约束机制及稳定的运行体制。究其原因,主要在于中美在专属经济区内军事活动权利上的争议,以及两国海上实力和战略需求的不一致。因此,中美海上军事互信机制建设应立足于未来,避免纠缠于复杂敏感的政治问题,先易后难,在互利共赢的基础上,从技术性问题及公海海域建立防止海上事件机制,推动中美海上军事互信机制建设。     

中美战略互信:概念、问题及挑战

中美除在经济领域享有基本互信外,双方围绕战略、美国的国际问题和中国的内政问题等都存在不同程度的互不信任。中美缺乏互信状态短期内不可能改变,但是,针对每个领域的不同特点,两国若采取适当应对措施,对逐步建立互信应能有所助益。     

中美海洋合作:特点与努力方向

建交后的三十多年里,中美两国在海洋多个领域积极展开对话与合作,取得了一定成效,总体呈现出非敏感领域进展顺畅、海上执法与安全合作有序推进、机制化建设不断加强等特点。两国海洋合作的健康、持续发展,体现了中美在海洋领域合作的深度相融,也将在一定程度上助推中美关系的发展。但由于中美两国结构性矛盾突出、战略互信不足、双方对国际海洋秩序和国际海洋法的理解存在分歧等现实制约,深化两国海洋合作面临诸多挑战。中国应从维护海洋权益、建设海洋强国大局出发,将中美海洋合作纳入构建中美新型大国关系的总体框架之内,积极推动双方务实合作。     

构建中美新型大国关系的历史条件与主要问题

不同于近代以来新老大国的关系发展,中美两国在经济、政治、安全等各个领域都有条件避免大的冲突.中美目前战略互信不足,并非只是政策层面因素造成,信息的不对称、不客观、不全面等因素造成的认识误区,也是双方增进理解、寻求共识的重要障碍.构建新型大国关系关乎中美国运,双方应加强沟通、增进相互理解、减少和消除各种认识误区,从而增强战略互信、减少和化解非理性战略焦虑.     

Population, Prophets, Pensions, and Politics

As immigrant populations in Western welfare states grow at a faster rate than the native populations, whose birthrates have declined dramatically in recent years, Europe's tradition of democracy and tolerance is threatened. The reasons for the birthrate decline and the resultant aging of the native population are many and complex, but one important contributing factor is the pay-as-you-go pension system, which reduces people's immediate dependence on children. Moreover, the payroll and social security taxes that support the welfare state reduce the earnings capacity of men and women of the traditional age for having children, thus pushing down the birthrate. It is time to consider whether modern Europe's small-size families and high pensions are sustainable     

Terrorism,counter-terrorism,and critique: opportunities,examples, and implications

This article explores the parameters, value and limitations of different critical strategies for those dissatisfied with the contemporary politics of terror. It argues, first, that the prominent (counter-)terrorism paradigm – in which terrorism is approached as a ubiquitous and very specific security challenge meriting appropriately exceptional responses – is far more critiqued than we might anticipate. And, second, that such critiques – which can be found across political language, popular culture, everyday life, and beyond – employ distinct critical resources to serve varying ends. Reflecting on these, the article offers a new heuristic distinguishing five critical strategies which seek to: (i) repudiate; (ii) question; (iii) subvert; (iv) replace, or (v) deconstruct the prominent counter-terrorism paradigm. This typology, it argues, offers scope for optimism and strategic resources for those attracted to a critical terrorism studies project going forward.     

Norway,Spitsbergen, and America, 1905-1920

In the Spitsbergen treaty of 1920, Norway acquired sovereignty over the Spitsbergen Islands. Rather than Woodrow Wilson, the American president, the architects behind the treaty were Robert Lansing, Wilson’s secretary of state, and, behind the diplomatic scene, the mining investor, John M. Longyear. In 1906, Longyear established a mining company to exploit the coal deposits at Spitsbergen. He induced Congress, the State Department, and the White House to forge an American policy for the European Arctic, including the appointment of Lansing, an international lawyer, as a counsel in the State Department. Lansing was a leading expert on both international law and the lack of state authority at the terra nullius, Spitsbergen. In 1915, he became secretary of State and, at the Paris Peace Conference, decided American policy regarding the Spitsbergen question. This analysis shows how the outcome of the Spitsbergen question was a result of American mining interests, supplemented by Norwegian-American shared interests in conflict resolution based on international law.     

Pakistan,India, China,and the United States: Energy,Climate Change,and National Security

This article focuses on the interplay of energy, climate change, and national security issues in Southwest Asia, using the newer definition of “national security” to include energy security, economic development, and climate change, as well as traditional security focusing on the military aspects.     

Indigeneity,Ethnicity, and the State: Australia,Fiji, and New Zealand

This article draws on the politics of indigeneity to distinguish the claims of first occupancy from simple ethnic identity politics, illustrating that relative political marginalization in Australasia is not so much a function of minority status but of indigeneity itself. The politics of indigeneity's aim is to create political space for self-determination and a particular indigenous share in the sovereign authority of the nation-state itself. The Australasian states are compared with Fiji to demonstrate that the significance of historical constraints on political authority transcend the withdrawal of a colonial power and the restoration of collective indigenous majority population status.     

International relations in Malaysia: theories, history, memory, perception, and context

The article makes a preliminary survey of the teaching of internationalrelations (IR) in Malaysia. It starts by describing the originsof the field, and the emergence of an IR epistemic communityjoining both academia and government. This account is necessarilyderived from the experiences of the four most established Malaysianuniversities distinguished by length of existence and officialfavor. Subsequently, the survey would describe course contentand influences going into their design. The penultimate sectionswould attempt to place the evolution of Malaysian IR teachingwithin a historical context. This survey nonetheless concludesthat nationalist aspirations continue to remain a secondaryinfluence when compared with intellectual dependence upon theWest in the design of IR education in Malaysia. Received for publication August 28, 2008. Accepted for publication October 2, 2008.     

Culture,liberation, and 'development'

Most of the socio-economic changes taking place in Africa and much of the South are externally driven. External agencies, often in league with the State, by-pass working people and do not involve them in the decision-making processes. Their economic approaches ignore people's cultures and their world view. This denies working people a creative capacity to adapt new techniques and knowledge to their own concrete reality. This article argues for the importance of the historical frame of reference and for the centrality of culture in socio-economic processes. The author argues against approaches which are not culturally familiar to working people.     

The roles of,and relationships between,expatriates, volunteers,and local development workers

This article reports on exploratory research based on interviews with expatriate and local aid workers employed by local and international NGOs in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Thematic analysis of the interviews found that personnel were placed in groups based on their job category – consultant, volunteer, or permanent staff – regardless of experience. These categories logically reflect each worker's pay level, purpose, and role, but they may also have an implicit power meaning which reinforces group differences and inhibits inter-group relationships. Relationship building was reported to be the most important factor contributing to the success of capacity-development initiatives. Four sub-themes were identified: communication, friendship, reciprocal learning/teaching, and confidence.     

Britain,France, and America's Year of Europe, 1973

Britain's entry into the European Community in 1973 coincided with an American initiative aimed at redefining relations between the United States and Western Europe. This confronted British diplomats with a serious dilemma. They wished to maintain close collaboration with Washington and, for the sake of European unity, to expand on their recently achieved reconciliation with France, a country whose Gaullist elite rejected any further institutionalization of transatlantic relations. French reluctance to engage in a constructive dialogue with the Americans resulted in a fractious debate over the drafting of two seemingly innocuous declarations, and this was exacerbated by the mixed response of the Europeans to the outbreak of the fourth Arab–Israeli war and the ensuing energy crisis. Finally, at the Washington energy conference of February 1974, the British chose to work with the Americans, rather than the French, in seeking to mitigate the economic impact of OPEC's oil policies.