伊拉克新总统亚瓦尔

6月28,美国提前把权力移交给6月1日晟立的伊拉克临时政府.舆论普遍认为,这是伊拉克政治过度进程中的重要事件.在6月1日拉克总统的推选中,伊临时管理委员会当月主席加齐·阿吉勒·亚瓦尔成为萨达姆下台后的首位伊拉克总统.     

日本核武器政策取向

朝鲜核危机的爆发,又引起了日本极右翼势力发展和拥有核武器的叫嚣。联系近年来一些日本政界人士的言行,以及日本积极扩充军力的事实,人们不禁要问:日本的核武器已经发展到了什     

Stabilising Iraq's Water Supply: what the Euphrates and Tigris rivers can learn from the Indus

The future stability of the young and relatively weak Iraqi government rests on its ability to provide basic public goods—water, food, and electricity—to its populace, which is related directly to stabilising the quality and quantity of its available water supply. Since 98% of Iraq's water comes from the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, both of which originate and flow through several countries before entering Iraq, stabilising the water supply becomes an international issue. In other words, to stabilise Iraq's water supply, there needs to be a comprehensive agreement between the states sharing the Euphrates and Tigris. As this article argues, an agreement is possible when states have an interest in co-operation, a neutral mediator facilitates the negotiations, and a river commission is established to maintain long-term co-operation. Due to important changes today the states sharing the Euphrates and Tigris rivers confront favourable conditions that can lead to an agreement.     

Terrorists and Laser Weapons Use: An Emergent Threat

The trends leading to the emergent threat of terrorist laser weapons use are that a military weaponry transition from conventional to Directed Energy Weapons is taking place; that laser weapons offer clear tactical and operational advantages over conventional weapons; that laser prices are dropping while laser performance is increasing; that criminals, criminal-soldiers, and foreign militaries have all utilized laser devices and weapons for counteroptical purposes; and that criminal-soldiers are evolving and getting more sophisticated from both an organizational and weaponry use perspective. This article will look at the aforementioned trends, analyze them, and then offer some concluding thoughts concerning terrorist laser weapons use futures.     

Al Qaeda,Deterrence, and Weapons of Mass Destruction

This article takes issue with the frequently-made assertion that Al Qaeda cannot be deterred from employing weapons of mass destruction. It argues that Al Qaeda's leadership employs terroristic violence in a manner calculated to achieve a set of political goals. They are, in other words, rational actors who are sensitive to the potential costs and benefits associated with their actions, and thus are to some extent deterrable. The article examines a number of ways in which the lack of discrimination and proportionality associated with weapons of mass destruction might be expected to produce more problems than benefits for Al Qaeda and thus deter their use. It also considers some ways in which the West might seek to bolster these deterrent effects.     

无核武世界：理想还是现实

2009年9月24日，美国总统奥巴马在联合国核裁军峰会上提出了“建立无核武世界”的决议并得到了全体与会国家的同意。自此，一个新的国际政治话语——“无核武世界”将成为这个秋季乃至未来世界舞台上最吸引人眼球的主张，但同时它也可能是迄今为止最难实现的主张。作为这一主张的提出者，奥巴马本人及其领导下的美国也因为这一新理念的提出而再次成为了世界焦点。一石激起千层浪，美国态度的重大转变引发了广泛争论。但一个不争的事实是，奥巴马的“无核武世界”的主张给人类社会带来了新的希望，激发起人们对于核武器的新思考。     

引人注目的美军"新概念"海战武器

在海战武器装备方面,美军正在推行高技术装备的开发运用计划,并将11项"核心技术计划"--主要是微电子技术、计算机技术、信息技术、人工智能技术、光电子技术、航空航天技术、新材料技术、隐形技术、定向能技术等运用于未来的海战武器装备中,进一步提升美国的超级海上力量优势.从当前的情况看,美军提出的一些"新概念"海战武器构想引起世人关注.     

White Paper Prepared for The Secretary of Defense Task Force on DoD Nuclear Weapons Management: Tradeoffs and Paradoxes: Terrorism,Deterrence and Nuclear Weapons

This article was written at the request of the Secretary of Defense Task Force on DoD Nuclear Weapons Management. While this analysis suggests that certain types of terrorists can be deterred from certain types of attacks, it is less optimistic about the use of nuclear weapons in a terrorist deterrent strategy. A broad approach to deterrence may be effective against certain types of terrorist groups and attacks, making it crucially important to disaggregate the terrorist threat when setting policy. The article goes on to address two types of terrorist groups with a “global reach” that pose a serious threat to the United States: non-state actors driven by doctrines permitting catastrophic attacks and state-sponsored groups capable of carrying out catastrophic attacks. The analysis reveals a number of previously unappreciated tradeoffs and paradoxes associated with the deterrence of terrorists.     

以色列与伊朗的恩怨情仇

在过去的2006年里,世界政治舞台上风云激荡,中东更是引人眼球.波斯硬汉伊朗总统内贾德频出惊人之语,公开置疑二战期间纳粹屠犹的真实性,威胁要把以色列从地球上抹去.以色列也不甘示弱地要求把伊朗驱逐出联合国,坚决反对伊朗的核计划,威胁要对伊朗核设施进行军事打击.以色列与伊朗唇枪舌剑,你来我往,互不相让.     

Comparing Motives and Outcomes of Mass Casualty Terrorism Involving Conventional and Unconventional Weapons

Western intelligence analysts fight an uphill battle to avoid parochial habits of thought that lump diverse Islamist identities together. The recent counterterrorism literature gives us tools for understanding a wide spectrum of Islamists, by focusing attention on what they say about themselves rather than on the intelligence labels we must ultimately assign to them. The main challenge for analysts is not the brute diversity of Islamist types, but their plasticity—the Islamist's flexible inhabitation of distinct, sometimes contradictory, identities. Contrary to generalizations about the duplicity of all Islamists, much plasticity is due to ordinary psychological- or ideological strain—the inability to resolve divided allegiances or sustain conflicted principles. Islamist preacher Yussef al-Qardawi and salafist group Hizb ut-Tahrir present prime examples of ordinary Islamist plasticity. In order to understand Islamism in all its complexity, analysts should develop methods for disaggregating and evaluating key components of the Islamist persona.