Event-Driven Political Communication and the Preadult Socialization of Partisanship

This study investigates political communication as a mediator of the socializing effects of major political events. We earlier found that presidential campaigns are occasions for increased crystallization of partisan attitudes among adolescents (Sears and Valentino, 1997). But what drives the socialization process during the campaign? Either the campaign saturates the media environment with political information, socializing all adolescents roughly equally, or greater individual exposure to political information is necessary for significant socialization gains during the campaign. The analyses utilize a three-wave panel study of preadults and their parents during and after the 1980 presidential campaign. Here we find that adolescents exposed to higher levels of political communication experience the largest socialization gains, that the socializing effects of political communication are limited to the campaign season, and that communication boosts socialization only in attitude domains most relevant to the campaign. We conclude that both a high salience event at the aggregate level and high individual levels of communication about the event are necessary to maximize socialization gains.

     

Refining the prize: Chinese oil refineries and its energy security

Since China became a net oil importer in 1993, oil refineries have played integral roles in China's quest for oil security. And yet, the capacity, security, and configurations of refineries were rarely featured in the discussions about China's oil policy. To fill this gap, this paper explains the basics of refinery economics and technology, and details the development in China's refining industry since the early 1990s. By taking refineries into consideration, it then revisits and reassesses the existing literature regarding the motives and drivers behind China's foreign oil policy, its effectiveness, and the political interactions between China and crude oil producers.     

Inferences from alarming events.

An extreme event, such as a nuclear accident, an earthquake, a cluster of adverse reactions to a particular drug, or excessive breakdowns of some class of equipment, frequently focuses attention for the first time on an important issue. By then, however, data on the incidence and magnitudes of relevant past events may be unavailable or too costly to reconstruct. Using a simple probability model, we derive methods for drawing statistical inferences based only on the magnitude of the first event noticed and the amount of exposure before this event occurred. We assume that an event is noticed only when its magnitude exceeds some threshold, and we develop methods of inference that are valid even when this threshold is unknown. One tempting but incorrect approach is to treat the magnitude of the observed event as if it were the threshold, forgetting that smaller magnitudes might have been noticed as well. The biases that arise when this mistake is made turn out to be substantial; risks can easily be overstated by a factor of 3.     

Gone with the Wind: Federalism and the Strategic Location of Air Polluters

In federal systems, both state governments and firms have incentives to strategically locate polluting facilities where the environmental and health consequences will be borne as much as possible by residents of other jurisdictions. We analyze air polluter location in the United States using a spatial point pattern model, which models where events occur in latitude and longitude. Our analyses indicate that major air polluters are significantly more likely to be located near a state's downwind border than a control group of other industrial facilities, results that are robust to a wide variety of model specifications and measurement strategies. This effect is particularly pronounced for facilities with toxic air emissions. The observed pattern of polluter location varies systematically across states and time in ways that suggest it is responsive to public policy at both the national and state levels.     

Focusing Events and Changes in Ecologies of Policy Games: Evidence from the Paraná River Delta

Solving environmental problems on a regional scale demands joint efforts by multiple stakeholders, but coordinating such efforts can be difficult in complex governance systems. In this article, we combine the literature in Adaptive Governance with the Ecology of Policy Games (EPGs) framework to enhance our understanding of how complex governance systems react to environmental focusing events. We study the EPGs in the Paraná River delta in Argentina following widespread fires caused by slash‐and‐burn practices in 2008, and analyze how new forums created to address the consequences of this event differ from the forums created prior to the event in terms of their capacity to attract stakeholders and to provide higher interconnectivity to the whole governance system. Furthermore, we offer an initial evaluation of the Comprehensive Strategic Plan for the Conservation and Sustainability of the Paraná River delta, the main forum in the EPGs created to address the negative consequences of the focusing event. Finally, we discuss the implications of our findings for the study of complex governance systems where stakeholders are able to address the management of natural resources at a regional scale.     

Cultural Penetration and Punctuated Policy Change: Explaining the Evolution of U.S. Energy Policy

Punctuated equilibrium theory (PET) suggests that the policy process is characterized by long periods of incremental change and short periods of punctuated change. The impetus for the latter is usually a focusing event that breaks open policy monopolies, allowing for major changes in legislative decision making. While a burgeoning body of literature, a shortcoming in the PET literature is that it has yet to explain why focusing events and subsequent breakdowns in policy monopolies sometimes fail to result in punctuated policy. We integrate theories on cultural change with punctuated equilibrium to explain why focusing events do not always result in the dramatic policy changes that we might expect. Specifically, we use the context of national energy policy and the lexical database, Google Ngram Viewer, to trace punctuating energy‐related events and the occurrence or lack thereof subsequent policy change from 1952 to 2000.     

Voter Decision Making in Election 2000: Campaign Effects, Partisan Activation, and the Clinton Legacy

How do citizens respond to campaign events? We explore this question with a unique repeated measures survey design, fielded during the 2000 presidential campaign. We model transitions in support for the major party candidates following the party conventions and presidential debates. In the aggregate, Gore support increases following the conventions (but not the debates), while Bush support increases with the debates (but not the conventions). But there is considerable microlevel variation in the data: responsiveness to campaign events is greatest among Independents, undecided voters, and “mismatched partisans,” but exactly how these groups respond differs for each event. Moreover, attitudes toward then President Clinton mediate the effect of the campaign events on voter preferences. Two primary conclusions follow: (1) rich data sets are required to observe the effects of campaign events; (2) the influence of campaign events on vote choice is conditional on previous preferences, partisan dispositions, and political context.     

The Separation Plot: A New Visual Method for Evaluating the Fit of Binary Models

We present a visual method for assessing the predictive power of models with binary outcomes. This technique allows the analyst to evaluate model fit based upon the models’ ability to consistently match high‐probability predictions to actual occurrences of the event of interest, and low‐probability predictions to nonoccurrences of the event of interest. Unlike existing methods for assessing predictive power for logit and probit models such as Percent Correctly Predicted statistics, Brier scores, and the ROC plot, our “separation plot” has the advantage of producing a visual display that is informative and easy to explain to a general audience, while also remaining insensitive to the often arbitrary probability thresholds that are used to distinguish between predicted events and nonevents. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this technique in building predictive models in a number of different areas of political research.     

Politically Significant Events and Their Effect on the Image of Political Parties

Abstract

This article begins by arguing that the image of a political party is of strategic importance in its pursuit of electoral success. More specifically, it is argued that important influences on party image are ‘politically relevant’ events. The paper then develops a conceptual model of how the images of political parties are influenced by such events. It considers internal and external factors that influence the power of a given event to affect party image. Next, the process of image transfer itself is discussed along with the factors that influence the way credit/ blame is apportioned from an event. Then, ways of dealing with ‘negative’ events are considered. The overall model is used to analyse a specific political event (the Iraq war) and assess its likely impact on party image. The article concludes by assessing the model's efficacy and limitations in analysing the case used and with events per se. Finally, future research ideas prompted by the paper are discussed.     

States to the Rescue? Aid to Central Cities Under the New Federalism

Central cities have been caught in a financial crisis caused by tax revolts and decreases in federal funding for cities during the Reagan administration. The impact of these events are examined, with particular attention to the response by states to the problems these circumstances have created for central cities and cities in general.     

Alain Badiou's Politics and the Problem of Social History

Abstract

This paper explores the plausibility of Alain Badiou's ahistorical theory of politics. By insisting that the events of egalitarian politics are radically subtracted from social and historical conditions Badiou imagines a form of political action that effectively comes out of nothing. However, in order to establish the very prospect of an event's occurrence Badiou is forced to ground the possibility of political intervention in his theory of "evental recurrence", which effectively enables the subjects of political action to draw on the consequences of a preceding event in order to act in the here and now. The paper argues that by introducing the social dimensions of evental recurrence it is possible to construct an alternative account of political action that resolves a number of inconsistencies in Badiou's otherwise miraculous vision of politics. Consequently, rather than a militant activist that comes out of nowhere, evental recurrence implies that the militants of political action are saturated in their immediate social and political circumstances and in the memory of past struggles.     

Regulatory policy outputs and impacts: Exploring a complex relationship

In this article, we pursue the objective of empirically testing the extent to which changes in environmental policy outputs can explain changes in environmental impacts. Previously, systematic testing of this relationship was hampered by the lack of a compelling measurement of changes in regulatory policy outputs. To remedy this, we present a novel approach to the measurement of events of regulatory output change. We illustrate our concept by employing data on changes in clean air regulations in 24 advanced democracies from 1976 to 2003. In a next step, we explore the extent to which changes in clean air regulations can account for changes in air pollutant emissions. The empirical analysis suggests that changes in clean air regulations cannot be unconditionally associated with changing intensities of air pollutant emission. We deem these results to have far‐reaching implications for the study of regulatory policy change.     

The 2020 U.S. presidential election: A litmus test

This paper provides an overview of what lies ahead of the United States in the event that Donald John Trump either lost or won a reelection bid. The uncertainty of the election outcomes is what we refer to as a litmus test. In this paper, we reflect on the ongoing events shaping the United States ahead of the 2020 presidential election and their implications on the United States. We suggest that the election provide a litmus test in shaping the politics of the United States in answering numerous questions raised in the current Trump administration. We deduce that the election could give birth to the new form of Brexit in the form of “U.S. exit” in the event the United States ignores processes that foster institutional legitimacy and civic engagement to build lost “trust” in the Americanized system.     

The roadmap to net-zero emission: Do geopolitical risk and energy transition matter?

Global crises have heightened policy uncertainties and efforts to address global climate change. Limited evidence exists in the literature on geopolitical risk's direct and indirect roles in addressing global emissions. In this study, we examine whether geopolitical risk could impede or facilitate efforts to attain a net-zero emissions target through energy transition using panel data for 42 countries from 1990 to 2020. Various econometric techniques were applied in this study to present robust findings and reliable conclusions. Estimates from the Driscoll-Kraay, Lewbel two-stage least squares and method of moment regression techniques consistently showed that countries' geopolitical risk directly increases emissions (total greenhouse gas, carbon, methane, and nitrous oxide). At the same time, energy transition, measured with renewable energy consumption, mitigates these emissions. In addition, evidence from the partial linear functional-coefficient model technique indicates that renewable energy consumption consistently mitigates emissions when geopolitical is minimal (at a minimum and mean level). However, the role of renewable energy consumption in reducing emissions becomes weaker when geopolitical risk is heightened—thus, when geopolitical risk reaches its maximum level. We recommend that efforts to sustain renewable energy transition and maintain geopolitical stability are vital for achieving net-zero emissions and climate change mitigation.     

The Political Consequences of External Economic Shocks: Evidence from Poland

How do external economic shocks influence domestic politics? We argue that those materially exposed to the shock will display systematic differences in policy preferences and voting behavior compared to the unexposed, and political parties can exploit these circumstances. Empirically, we take advantage of the 2015 surprise revaluation of the Swiss franc to identify the Polish citizens with direct economic exposure to this exogenous event. Using an original survey fielded prior to the 2015 elections and an embedded survey experiment, we show that exposed individuals were more likely to demand government support and more likely to desert the government and vote for the largest opposition party, which was able to use the shock to expand its electoral coalition without alienating its core voters. Our article clarifies the connection between international shocks, voters’ policy preferences, partisan policy responses, and, ultimately, voting decisions.     

Public Sector Change,Organisational Culture and Financial Information: A Study of Local Government

Local government has undergone substantial change in Victoria, but the reforms have not necessarily resulted in improved financial management practices. This article examines the organisational culture of a sample of local governments, the critical events which have impacted on them, and their use of accounting, budgetary and financial (ABF) information. We find that despite the change process, organisational culture is not focused on competitive practices, although compulsory competitive tendering remains the most influential event. Consistent with the aims of reform, the quality and use of ABF information has improved over the last decade. This article will be of interest to those in government wishing to implement change programs aimed at increasing financial resource use efficiency.     

Event Dependence and Heterogeneity in Duration Models: The Conditional Frailty Model

Suzanna De Boef and Kyle A. Joyce Department of Political Science, 219 Pond Laboratory, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 e-mail: sdeboef{at}psu.edu e-mail: kjoyce{at}psu.edu e-mail: jboxstef+{at}osu.edu (corresponding author) We introduce the conditional frailty model, an event historymodel that separates and accounts for both event dependenceand heterogeneity in repeated events processes. Event dependenceand heterogeneity create within-subject correlation in eventtimes thereby violating the assumptions of standard event historymodels. Simulations show the advantage of the conditional frailtymodel. Specifically they demonstrate the model's ability todisentangle the sources of within-subject correlation as wellas the gains in both efficiency and bias of the model when comparedto the widely used alternatives, which often produce conflictingconclusions. Two substantive political science problems illustratethe usefulness and interpretation of the model: state policyadoption and terrorist attacks. Authors' note: Three anonymous reviewers gave valuable advice.Replication materials and an online appendix are available onthe Political Analysis Web site. Any errors are our own responsibility.     

Politics and personal factors in retirement from the United States Supreme Court

A vacancy to be filled on the Supreme Court is a relatively rare event; continuity of service is the norm. In this paper I determine the circumstances under which justices decide to retire and, by extension, why they remain on the bench. Using a discrete-time method I find that political considerations do not appear to matter. Justices are more likely to retire when they are physically infirm and have qualified for pension benefits. But the more justices participate in the Court's activity, as evidenced by the number of opinions or dissents they write, the less likely they are to leave voluntarily.     

If I recall correctly. An event history analysis of forgetting and recollecting past voting behavior

The mechanisms behind vote recall inaccuracy are not well understood. The literature has been unable to separate inaccuracy due to the nature of the voter (such as non-attitudes) from inaccuracy due to interfering events after casting the vote (such as a change in vote intention). This paper employs event history analysis to disentangle time-invariant and time-variant explanations of recall inaccuracy. Using Dutch panel data on 20,936 respondents in 42 waves between 2010 and 2012 (and additional data collected between 2006 and 2010), we explain the likelihood of misreporting the 2010 vote during the subsequent electoral cycle. The analyses show that although both explanations play a role, voters’ general level of volatility before casting the recalled vote matters less than changes in vote intention after the vote. We conclude that accurate recall is affected mainly by events rather than the nature of voters. Our findings imply that survey measures of voting behavior could be improved by offering cues on the elections of interest.     

Committees and the core of the Constitution

An ongoing debate in the formal theory of legislatures involves the question of why these institutions (apparently) manifest so much stability. That is, why do the institutions not continually upset policies adopted only a short time before? A large number of answers have been advanced. This paper proposes that the stability derives from the interaction of two factors, (i) the fundamental constitutional rules (bicameralism, executive veto, and veto override) that structure the legislative process, and (ii) the committee systems endowed with veto powers that many American legislatures have developed. This interaction, we argue, can create a core — a set of undominated points — so large that even a substantial change in the legislature's members (reflecting electoral outcomes, for example) will be unlikely to shift its location enough for the status quo to be upset.