Flirting with Authoritarian Fantasies? Rodrigo Duterte and the New Terms of Philippine Populism

This commentary aims to take stock of the 2016 presidential elections in the Philippines that led to the landslide victory of the controversial Rodrigo Duterte. It argues that part of Duterte’s electoral success is hinged on his effective deployment of the populist style. Although populism is not new to the Philippines, Duterte exhibits features of contemporary populism that are befitting of an age of communicative abundance. This commentary contrasts Duterte’s political style with other presidential contenders, characterises his relationship with the electorate and concludes by mapping populism’s democratic and anti-democratic tendencies, which may define the quality of democratic practice in the Philippines in the next six years.     

The Role of Elections in the Peace-Building and Reconstruction of Afghanistan

Reconstruction of a failed state is possible by focusing on building up three pillars closely interlinked to each other: political process, civil order through security reform and reconstruction. Political process will provide a foundation for the other two. Civil order through security reform will allow the political process to proceed and reconstruction will enhance the people's confidence in the future. In Afghanistan, the political roadmap has been agreed upon in Bonn. Drawing upon traditional wisdom, the process has now come to the final stage, that is, the national-assembly and local elections. Prior to that, the presidential election was staged reasonably smoothly, against a tremendous number of difficulties, among them the terrorists' threat to the people not to vote. The main factor in the success of the presidential election was the people's participation through voting, thus defying the threat of terrorists. The tasks ahead towards peace and prosperity in Afghanistan are still tremendous and complex. It is, however, not an impossible task if the Afghan people and the international community are committed to working together henceforward, too.     

Is the middle east democratizing?

Elections have become a common feature of the political landscape of the Middle East and North Africa, where dozens of elections for office have taken place in recent years. But more, and frequent, elections, or even some political liberalization, is not synonymous with democratization. Where elections have become a feature of the political system, we still find some disturbing evidence of de‐liberalization as well. Looking at the record in more detail, this article attempts to highlight the continuing tensions between the pressures for democratization and the strategy of gradual opening up of political systems in the Middle East.     

Russia's Forced-Choice Presidential Election

Have there been changes in political institutions, parties, leaders, and regional political orientations in Ukraine after the "Orange Revolution"? If so, are the changes revolutionary or evolutionary? Most previous studies refer to the 2004 presidential elections and mass protest actions as a revolution. To test this claim, this article analyzes political changes in Ukraine. Survey data are used to compare changes in pro-Russian and pro-Western orientation, support for major parties in the 2002, 2006, and 2007 parliamentary elections, and support for leading presidential candidates since the 2004 presidential elections. The implications of these changes for development of democracy in Ukraine are also considered.     

The Personal Is Political: The Cuban Ethnic Electoral Policy Cycle

This article documents a U.S. Cuban foreign policy cycle that operated in tandem with the presidential electoral cycle between 1992 and 2004. During these post–Cold War years, when Cuba posed no threat to U.S. national security, influential, well-organized Cuban Americans leveraged political contributions and votes to tighten the embargo on travel and trade, especially at the personal level. U.S. presidential candidates, most notably incumbent presidents seeking re-election, responded to their demands with discretionary powers of office. When presidential candidates supported policies that made good electoral sense but conflicted with concerns of state, they subsequently reversed or left unimplemented Cuba initiatives. After describing the logic behind an ethnic electoral policy cycle and U.S. personal embargo policy between 1992 and 2004, this article examines Cuban American voter participation, political and policy preferences, lobbying, political contributions, and the relationship between the ethnic policy and presidential election cycles.     

Magic Mayors: Predicting Electoral Success from Candidates' Physical Attractiveness under the Conditions of a Presidential Electoral System

A range of empirical studies has shown that candidates' physical attractiveness can substantially influence the outcome of political elections. This applies to different countries, different electoral systems, and different levels of political systems, and equally affects simple direct or list candidates and front-runners. However, no previous investigation using actual election results has been made into whether candidates' attractiveness also has an effect under the conditions of a presidential electoral system. Theoretical reasons can be formulated that suggest attractiveness is ineffective under these circumstances. In order to clarify this point empirically, we analysed the 2009 North Rhine-Westphalia mayoral elections. Yet the results of the analyses clearly show that candidates' attractiveness has a substantial influence. Taking into account earlier findings, the influence of physical attractiveness in political elections appears to be resistant, to a large degree, to varying constraints.     

Risk vs Reward Strategies in Indirect Presidential Elections: Political Parties and the Selection of Presidential Electors in Germany, 1949–2017

Parties across parliamentary republics compete fiercely over capturing the presidential office. However, they are often torn between seeing their preferred candidate elected and exploiting the election for publicity purposes. The German case, specifically parties’ ability to nominate extra-parliamentarian electors (EPEs) as part of the electoral college, offers a particularly interesting perspective on how parties balance these competing goals. While EPEs allow parties to boost their profile and strengthen ties with selected groups, they also present a risk factor as their voting behaviour is more difficult to predict. Based on a novel data set on party delegations in German presidential elections, 1949–2017, the analysis shows that – contrary to traditional assumptions – competition in the electoral college did not play a role in EPE nominations. Rather, party strategies were influenced by the varying signalling power of the elections. Parties were more risk-averse and nominated fewer EPEs during grand coalitions, when they were part of the federal government, or when federal elections approached, yet nominated more EPEs when they had a larger support base to reward. The results call for further comparative research on indirect elections and different types of EPEs in Germany.     

Nigeria’s 2015 General Elections: The Salience of Electoral Reforms

Nigeria’s 2015 general elections were followed by positive remarks by trusted local and international observers. The highpoint of the elections was the emergence of the opposition candidate as the winner of the 28 March presidential elections. Clearly, this is unprecedented in the electoral history of Nigeria considering the enormous influence that surrounds the office of the incumbent executive in the country. This article analyses the reforms that enhanced the integrity of the elections. The article illustrates the electoral reforms introduced by the electoral management body and their connection to the improvement of the integrity of the 2015 general elections.     

The Formation of Cabinet Coalitions in Presidential Systems

Cabinet coalitions are central to the functioning of Latin American presidential systems. However, the reasons for their formation remain unclear. While recent studies suggest that presidents invite parties to the cabinet to facilitate governability and lawmaking, this study argues that the composition of cabinet coalitions is largely predetermined by commitments made before presidential elections. To analyze this argument, the study introduces the conditional logit model as a new empirical strategy for modeling cabinet choice under this type of regime. Based on a new dataset of 107 cabinets in 13 Latin American democracies, the study shows that pre‐electoral commitments strongly affect cabinet formation and thereby also confound the relationship between cabinet formation and governability.     

The Gambian 2016 Presidential Election and its Aftermath

This article explores the Gambian presidential election of December 2016, which was very surprisingly won by the leader of an opposition coalition, Adama Barrow, and its extraordinary aftermath. Barrow defeated Yahya Jammeh, who had won the four previous presidential elections, thus ending Jammeh’s 20-year rule of The Gambia, which had been marred by human rights abuses. Jammeh at first accepted the result, but changed his mind a week later, thus triggering a major political crisis. Over the next month, he made various desperate attempts to cling to power, before finally leaving the country on 21 January 2017, when faced with the prospect of being removed by force. Barrow, who had earlier been inaugurated as president, finally returned to Banjul on 26 January to assume office. The article concludes by considering the possible key features of a Barrow presidency and assesses the challenges that he will face.     

Latin America's Neocaudillismo: Ex‐Presidents and Newcomers Running for President… and Winning

Latin Americans have been voting for a surprisingly large number of ex‐presidents and newcomers in presidential elections since the late 1980s. This article looks at both the demand and supply sides of this phenomenon by focusing on economic anxieties and party crises as the key independent variables. Sometimes the relationship between these variables is linear: economic anxieties combined with party crises lead to rising ex‐presidents and newcomers. At other times the relationship is symbiotic: the rise of ex‐presidents leads to party crises, economic and political anxieties, and thus the rise of newcomers. This article concludes that the abundance of ex‐presidents and newcomers in elections—essentially, the new face of Latin America's caudillismo—does not bode well for democracy because it accelerates de‐institutionalization and polarizes the electorate.     

Liberal and Illiberal Democracy in Latin America

This article examines the incidence of liberal and “illiberal” democracy in Latin America from 1978 through 2004. It demonstrates, first, that illiberal democracy—which combines free and fair elections with systematic constraints on citizens’rights—became the norm throughout the region. Second, it shows that regime transitions most often ended not in liberal democracy but in illiberal democracy. Third, rare events logit analysis reveals that two variables, hyperinflation and presidential elections, had significant impact on movement toward fuller democracy. As a form of short‐term economic shock, hyperinflation generates widespread discontent; given the opportunity to vote, citizens elect reformist opposition candidates who, once in office, remove controls on civil liberties. This scenario substantially increases the likelihood of transition from illiberal to liberal democracy.     

Turkish Popular Presidential Elections: Deepening Legitimacy Issues and Looming Regime Change

This paper examines the politics of presidential elections in Turkey with particular reference to the 10 August 2014 presidential elections. It starts by scrutinising the change in the presidential election system from parliamentary to direct popular vote. It then probes the implementation of the new election rules, candidate selection, and the conduct of the campaign, followed by analysis of the election results and their influence on the Turkish record of democratisation. The paper concludes that the move to a partisan president elected by popular vote entails democratic dangers if the new incumbent does not abide by his or her constitutional role and attempts to intervene in government policy.     

INDONESIA’S 2019 ELECTIONS: A FRACTURED DEMOCRACY?

In April 2019, Indonesia carried out simultaneous presidential and legislative elections. With an estimated 192 million voters acceding to 800,000 polling stations, this was the world's largest direct presidential election. Barring some dispersed claims of irregularities, the mammoth task of electing public representatives at the national as well as provincial and local levels was successfully carried out. Indonesia's voters had to decide on the 575 members of the national parliament, as well as some 20,000 seats in the country's many provincial and local legislatures, including 2,207 provincial level MPs from 34 provinces and 17,610 local councillors from more than 500 local authorities. Voter turn-out was an estimated 81.9 percent, the highest yet since Indonesia's transition to full democracy. Thus, at first blush, this electoral exercise can be seen as a logistical and political achievement, and an addition to Indonesia's track record of successfully-held elections. Yet, despite its technical proficiency and solid participation, the 2019 polls highlight pervasive societal and geographic fault-lines and raise questions about the strength of Indonesia's democratic institutions.

In order to analyse the importance of these elections, this article is comprised of six parts. Following this introduction, the second section briefly discusses the salient aspects of Jokowi's first administration. The subsequent part sets out the run-up to the presidential campaign, paying particular importance to changes in ‘rules of the game’ that altered the structural dynamics of the elections. The fourth section compares and contrasts the campaigns of the two opposing coalitions and the fifth analyses the electoral results. The final section concludes by discussing the denouement of the elections before looking forward.     

Party opportunism among local politicians after Taiwan’s power transition

This paper probes into a hypothesised opportunism towards political party affiliation among local politicians in Taiwan since the power transition from Kuomintang (KMT) to Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) rule began in 2000. Longitudinal changes in election candidates' party affiliation are analysed to see what happened to the KMT's supposedly strong base of local politicians after the change of governing party. The research finds a generally high propensity of election candidates' changing or dropping their party affiliation between elections, and an increased propensity among KMT candidates after 2000. However, defections to other parties are more common in higher elections. In grassroots elections, many candidates flow in and out of their party affiliation depending on the political circumstances, but they rarely change party. Several years after the DPP gained power in presidential elections, the new ruling party is still struggling to build a strong local party organisation.     

从2018年地方选举看俄罗斯左翼政党发展态势

俄罗斯地方选举的结果往往能够反映出俄罗斯的政治社会形势、中央地方关系的变化情况以及精英的流动和发展状况,对国家杜马选举甚至俄罗斯总统选举都有一定的影响。2018年俄地方选举呈现出不同以往的特点,普京支持的“统一俄罗斯”党不仅失去多个地区的领导权,在地区立法机构的席位也大幅缩水。相比之下,俄罗斯联邦共产党则取得了不错的竞选成绩,在所有参选地区的得票率都有所提升,大幅提高了在地区立法机构中的席位占比。但是由于政治当局的打压、左翼政党内部的分裂和俄罗斯联邦共产党自身的发展局限,俄罗斯左翼政党在短期内依然无法与强大的政权党抗衡。不断进行理论创新、加强党的自身建设、联合其他左翼政党和爱国力量,才是俄罗斯左翼政党复兴的长远之计。     

An exploratory study of constitutional design in three island states: Seychelles,Comoros, and Mauritius

This article explores the effects of constitutional design on conflict management and democratisation outcomes in three African island states: Seychelles, Comoros, and Mauritius. As an exploratory framework, the article reflects upon Arend Lijphart’s theory of accommodative constitutional design in view of political developments in the three cases, beginning around their independence and continuing into recent times. The case studies provide some general support to Lijphart’s accommodative theory, and particularly to the need to facilitate broad representation and an overall sense of political inclusion, but they also raise critical questions regarding the effects of his institutional recommendations. Contrary to Lijphart’s approach, majoritarian legislative elections might under certain conditions facilitate greater inclusion than proportional representation, and direct presidential elections could sometimes be more inclusive than a parliamentary executive. The findings on Lijphart’s recommendations of group autonomy are less clear, particularly regarding the question of whether territorial autonomy might increase risks of secession.     

Minimum Winning Electoral Coalitions Under Presidentialism: Reality or Fiction? The Case of Brazil

This article studies the motivations of party leaders to form "minimum winning" electoral coalitions—alliances that cease to be winning if one member is subtracted. In Brazil, concurrent elections stimulate political actors' coordination, and electoral alliances are allowed. In 2002 and 2006, moreover, the Electoral Supreme Court obliged those parties with presidential candidates to replicate this electoral arrangement in the district. Under "verticalization," parties with presidential candidates could not form alliances with rival parties in the concurrent legislative and gubernatorial elections. Verticalization arguably pushed party leaders to form minimum winning electoral coalitions. This new rule forced them to reconsider the contributions of each possible ally in the elections for president, federal deputy, and governor. Examining the elections from 1998 to 2006, this study finds that under verticalization, while parties did form more electoral coalitions with those partners they considered crucial to win, they did so at the expense of policy.     

Iran as a Peculiar Hybrid Regime: Structure and Dynamics of the Islamic Republic

This article is based on the assumption that the Iranian political system is a peculiar form of a hybrid regime and is based on two hypotheses. The first is that the originality of the Iranian political system depends on two main factors: a constitutional compromise between the secular and clerical components and the particular way in which presidential elections are held. The second hypothesis concerns the consequences of this institutional arrangement. On the one hand, in particular phases, presidential elections may play an inclusive function thanks to a certain degree of responsiveness of ordinary policies. On the other hand, they may instead raise the expectations and political demands for regime change that, if suppressed, could generate tensions and instability. The first part of this work will be devoted to a brief presentation of the concept of hybrid systems and to the collocation of the Iranian system in this category. The second part will examine some crucial political phases experienced by Iran which highlight the functioning of the regime, explaining its stability and vulnerability.