Popularity functions for the Portuguese Prime Minister,Government, Parliament and President

Abstract. The purpose of this paper is to estimate popularity functions for the Portuguese Prime Minister, Government, Parliament and President using the ordinary least squares (OLS) and seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) methods. The results indicate that: (1) popularity polls for the Prime Minister and Government are better explained by economic conditions than are similar polls for the Parliament and President; (2) unemployment is a significant variable determining popularity while inflation is not; (3) honeymoon effects are significant; (4) popularity deteriorates over consecutive terms.     

Letter from North Haven … Or What the President Should Do Next

Letter from North Haven is an essay on American national identity that shows the depth of small town mentalities in American life—no matter that that life is mainly urban and industrial. We move from Chicago School sociology to the Catcher in the Rye; from Bob Dylan to Steven Spielberg; from Jacksonian Democracy to the Tea Party movement. The essay ends by using the example of politics in North Haven, Maine, to call upon the President to revive his campaign by explaining America's problems in the plain style and tangible context of small town USA.     

The Duty to Take Care: President Obama,Public Administration,and the Capacity to Govern

President Barack Obama inherited many challenges as he entered the White House. One of the most important obligations he faced was the constitutional duty to “take care that the laws be faithfully executed.” Meeting that commitment has been rendered more difficult because Obama seems not to have recognized that the people and organizations of the executive branch are facing a crisis in the capacity to govern. This essay argues that no matter how talented President Obama may be in public policy or on the stump, he likely will not accomplish his constitutional duty unless he engages that capacity crisis.     

The selling of the President 2004: a marketing perspective

• George W. Bush won the 2004 US Presidential election despite the facts of one thousand people losing their life in the Iraq war, the highest rate of increase in unemployment in 70 years and a vitriolic propaganda campaign (Michael Moore, etc.) against him. This case study seeks to explain the success through the prism of marketing theory and conceptual structures, that is, that the Bush team had a superior communications strategy and, within those parameters, superior marketing elements. Thus we seek to surface and integrate a number of causal explanations for his victory that arose from a political marketing orientation, specifically the offer of a ‘coherent narrative’; the conduct of a ‘permanent campaign’; more effective negative advertising (especially by pro‐Bush 527 groups), targeting and packaging; the success of the late campaign ‘big tent’ ploy. None of this however seeks to exclude the more purely political explanations for his success (located in such phenomena as the mobilization of the ‘Christian Right’ and the continuity to the aura attached to the ‘911 President’); nor is the application of marketing thought to political contexts treated uncritically.
• A further aim is to introduce political marketing modes of analysis to a political science audience—not to present them as a new ‘correctness’, for they are certainly vulnerable to challenge, but rather to precipitate more of an intellectual exchange between these two disciplines.

Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Science,Technology and the New President: Advancing Security,Prosperity, Resilience and Stability for 2009 and The 21st Century

At one time, only 20 years ago, the United States was the undisputed leader globally in virtually every field of science and technology with a reputation for being the place where innovation, technological breakthroughs and cutting‐edge science found a home and thrived. Not so any longer as several other nations, some friendly and others competitive rivals have surged ahead with a robust and growing infrastructure in the broad science and technology ['S&T’] field which surpasses many American programs and displays trends which will eclipse American leadership in the S&T realm. In nanotechnology, biotech and molecular engineering we find ourselves outperformed and outmaneuvered at risk of falling further behind other nations. The situation is not likely to change or improve unless the United States considers this problem to have serious strategic consequences and profound implications for our national security and prosperity.     

From Senators to the President: Solve the lumber problem or else

We use key events associated in the two decade-long U.S.–Canada softwood lumber trade dispute to present the dynamic relationship between U.S. Congress and the Administration in the formation of international trade policy. We find that the executive branch of the U.S. government responded quickly to several letters from a group of U.S. Senators demanding a solution to the “lumber problem.” A roll call analysis is used to identify factors influencing Senators’ willingness to sign these letters and pressure the President on behalf of the U.S. lumber industry. The results show that the economic importance of the lumber industry in a Senator’s home state is positively correlated with signatory on these letters and that the presence of a large housing industry in a state makes a Senator less likely to sign these letters.     

Preparing to Be President on Day One

Nearly 50 years ago, John F. Kennedy asked Clark Clifford to handle his transition planning; the day after the election, Clifford handed Kennedy a single memorandum. Transition for today's president-elect is much more complex. Managing the shift from campaigning to governing is the president-elect's greatest challenge and biggest opportunity. According to Martha Joynt Kumar in her foregoing essay, the newly elected would do well to learn from the successes and failures of their predecessors. In short, the risks rooted in the inexperience and hubris of new presidents may be mitigated or avoided by knowledge gained from analysis of transition precedents. In this essay, the author provides a practitioner's checklist of dos and don'ts drawn from his experience as a manager and advisor in presidential transitions.     

The Charismatic Body Politics of President Putin

Vladimir Putin's image and brand make sophisticated, culturally embedded use of his biography, martial arts expertise, and idiolect, with his physical self strongly privileged in the modes of his self-presentation. As a politically marketable product, his public persona enjoyed broad appeal among Russian voters in the period 2000–2011, when he and his United Russia party operated in an electorally uncompetitive environment. Since the urban protests of 2011–2012, Russia's political scene has become much more dynamic. Having initially configured himself as a charismatic leader whose very body symbolized a new and confident Russia, during his third presidential term, which began in 2012, Putin finds himself facing new presentational challenges that he may or may not be equipped to meet.