Altered Europeanisation of Pension Reform in the Context of the Great Recession: Denmark and Italy Compared

This article analyses the Europeanisation of national pension systems in Denmark and Italy. Through the analytical framework of a ‘two-level’ game, it analyses pension reforms in the two countries, which, in the wake of the crisis, breached EU budgetary requirements, and shortly after reformed their pension systems. The EU affects pension reform in both cases, but in distinct ways. When Denmark’s economy was financially vulnerable, the EU’s excessive deficit procedure affected the decision to reform pensions indirectly, by triggering a rapid political decision to speed up a pension reform. By contrast, the Italian economy’s critical vulnerability and the consequent risk for the whole Eurozone led to a situation whereby the European actors entered the domestic political scene and thereafter more forcefully induced reforms. The findings from the two cases show that the EU’s role in pension reform has been significant during crises, but through interaction with domestic actors. Furthermore, from a theoretical perspective, the intervening variables – domestic and EMU vulnerability as well as EU and domestic politics – are crucial to understanding the reform decisions through two-level games.     

The role of electoral geography in the territorialization of party systems

When does a country's social structure foster the development of territorialized party systems? This article argues that electoral geography – defined as the interaction between the geography of social diversity and electoral rules– is key to answering this question. I make two claims: first, the impact of geographically concentrated diversity on party system territorialization depends on the proportionality of electoral rules. Second, the types of geographic cleavages (ethnic versus economic) and whether they are overlapping or cross-cutting also affects the likelihood of party system territorialization (conditional on the electoral system). I test these claims with an original dataset measuring party system territorialization in 382 elections across 60 countries that also includes comparable cross-national measures of different types of geographically concentrated diversity (language, race, religion and income). The main conclusion is that proportional electoral systems and cross-cutting cleavages can act as a powerful constraint on the translation of territorial ethnic cleavages into territorialized party systems.     

Solidarity with whom? Why organised labour is losing ground in Continental pension politics

This article explains why the power of organised labour in the reform of Swiss and German pension regimes has faded over the last three decades. Postindustrialisation has brought two different sets of reform issues onto the pension policy agendas of Continental European welfare states: retrenchment of existing benefit levels, and the pension coverage of new, postindustrial social risk groups. Recent pension reforms increasingly combine these two types of measures in encompassing policy packages –‘modernising compromises’– in order to compensate for retrenchment with selective expansive reform elements. Continental trade unions attach a lower importance to postindustrial modernisation than do the left‐wing parties – notably the Social Democrats and the Green parties. Consequently, the distance between the labour movement and the left‐wing parties, as well as intra‐labour heterogeneity, increase and ‘modernising compromises’ tend to divide the left and to marginalise trade unions. The empirical analysis relies on coded actor positions from eight major pension reforms between 1972 and 2003.     

Will you still trust me tomorrow? The causal effect of terrorism on social trust

The absence of a deselection threat in incumbents’ last term in office can be negative or positive for the polity. Some politicians may reduce their efforts, while others may pursue beneficial long-term policies that may be unpopular in the short term. We propose a novel pension system that solves the effort problem while preserving the willingness to implement long-term policies. The idea is to give politicians the option to choose between a flexible and a fixed pension scheme. While in the fixed scheme, performance has no impact on the pension, the pension increases with short-term performance in the flexible scheme, using the vote share of the officeholder’s party in the next election as a performance indicator. Such a pension choice improves the well-being of citizens since officeholders are encouraged to invest in those activities that are beneficial for society. We analyze the properties and consequences of such a system. Finally, we extend the pension system with choice to non-last-term situations and derive a general welfare result.     

Next generation of individual account pension reforms in Latin America

Latin America led the world in introducing individual retirement accounts intended to complement or replace defined benefit state-sponsored, pay-as-you-go systems. After Chile implemented the first system in 1981, a number of other Latin American countries incorporated privately managed individual accounts as part of their retirement income systems beginning in the 1990s. This article examines the subsequent "reform of the reform" of these pension systems, with a focus on the recent overhaul of the Chilean system and major reforms in Mexico, Peru, and Colombia. The authors analyze key elements of pension reform in the region relating to individual accounts: system coverage, fees, competition, investment, the impact of gender on benefits, financial education, voluntary savings, and payouts.     

财政支出比较视角下公务员退休金制度设计

公务员退休金和企业职工养老保险金的待遇差是社会热点问题,并波及事业单位养老金制度改革,助长了提前退休浪潮。机关公务员与企业人员退休后收入的待遇差来自人员身份和计算方法的制度隔墙,本文审视了针对公务员养老金的政府责任和财政负担,探讨了中国公务员退休金制度的新路径,即三元组合的公务员养老金制度。养老金制度目标有两个,一是通过国民基础养老金避免老年贫困;二是通过职业养老金个人账户实现老年体面生活。公务员作为公民应享有国民基础养老金,作为政府雇员应享有职业养老金并附之以廉政奖励养老金,政府应当分别承担相应责任。通过模型计算和实际数据模拟计算表明,新制度初期财政支出超过原有制度,但若干年后低于原有制度,本文提出的模型和政策建议具有不降低公务员养老金待遇的同时减轻未来政府财政负担的效应。     

Pension coverage among private wage and salary workers: preliminary findings from the 1988 survey of employee benefits

Based on data for private wage and salary workers in May 1988, this article examined pension coverage under two types of employer-sponsored pension plans. Some of the factors associated with employer-financed pension coverage were also examined, and comparisons were made to findings on pension coverage of full-time workers in 1972, 1979, and 1983. "Covered" workers were defined as those actually participating in a pension plan. Among all private sector employees studied, 34 percent were covered by a "basic" pension plan (most of which, presumably, were defined benefit plans), and 14 percent were covered by a pretax retirement savings plan--a subtype of defined contribution plan. With 7 percent of the respondents covered by both types of plans, the total coverage rate under employer-sponsored plans was 41 percent. Twelve percent of the respondents reported that they had contributed to an IRA in 1987. The reported IRA usage was somewhat higher among those already covered by a pension plan than among noncovered workers. Six percent of the respondents were not covered by an employer-sponsored plan but were contributing to an IRA, yielding a total of 47 percent who were participating in either an employer-sponsored or an individual retirement plan. While it was assumed--as in previous studies--that all "basic" coverage was being funded by employers, only four-fifths of those in pretax retirement savings plans reported that employers were also contributing to these plans. The remainder of the analysis was restricted to coverage under employer-financed plans, and it was further restricted to full-time workers. A total of 46 percent of these workers were covered under employer-financed pension plans--33 percent covered only by a basic plan, 7 percent covered only by a pretax plan, and 6 percent dually covered. Among men, the coverage rate was 49 percent, compared with 43 percent among women. Several individual and job-related characteristics were found to be associated with employer-financed pension coverage among full-time employees. Coverage rates were quite low among workers under age 25, but were substantially higher among those aged 35-59. Pension coverage was also low among those with less than 5 years of employment on the job, but relatively high among those with 5 years or more of job tenure. Coverage rate differences by race were not substantial. Whites reported a coverage rate of 47 percent, compared with 42 percent among blacks and 45 percent among other races.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)     

强制性企业年金制度及其对金融发展的影响——澳大利亚、冰岛和瑞士三国案例分析

分析了澳大利亚、冰岛和瑞士三国建立强制性企业年金制度的历史原因,以及该制度的基本特征,考察了三国企业年金基金的投资管理,在分析现有数据的基础上,通过比较分析表明:企业年金资产要独立于雇主企业和政府,这是建立良好治理结构的前提;增加企业年金计划的竞争性、提高信息披露程度、增强决策透明度是提高企业年金投资回报率的有效手段;审慎和恰当的政府监管是企业年金发展的重要条件;在适当控制风险的前提下,追求投资回报率仍是企业年金最重要的目标。从养老金制度的充足性、可负担性、可持续性和稳健性四个方面评估了强制性企业年金制度的作用,从而得出:强制性企业年金制度不仅实现了全面覆盖,而且在保障养老金制度可负担、可持续和稳健性的同时较好地实现了充足性的目标。利用格兰杰因果检验,实证分析了澳大利亚和冰岛两国企业年金发展和金融发展之间存在的协整关系:澳大利亚的企业年金发展和金融发展互为格兰杰因果关系,而冰岛企业年金发展是该国金融发展的格兰杰原因。     

Gaining access or going public? Interest group strategies in five European countries

Interest groups differ in the strategies they use to influence public policy. Some mainly try to gain access (i.e., have direct contact with decision makers), whereas others tend to ‘go public’ by launching campaigns that aim to mobilise the broader public. In this article it is argued that group type – namely the distinction between business associations, professional associations and citizen groups – is a major determinant of the choice of strategy. The effect of group type, however, is conditional on the group's endowment with material resources and the issue context: the differences across group types are largest for resource‐rich associations and associations active in distributive policy fields. Original data from surveys of national associations in five European countries (Austria, Germany, Ireland, Latvia and Spain) enable the assessment of this argument. The theoretical expectations are supported, with the results having relevance for the normative evaluation of political systems and the positive study of interest group influence.     

Public pensions and voting on immigration

In a recent paper, Scholten and Thum (1996) analyze the impact of a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension system with a fixed replacement ratio on the immigration policy in a democracy. We extend the analysis of median voter's choice in two respects. First, in contrast to Scholten and Thum (1996) who assume myopic voting behavior, our paper considers fully rational agents and provides a solution under this more complex behavioral assumption. Voting with rational agents yields a more liberal immigration policy than with myopic voters. Second, we examine a different decision structure with a fixed contribution rate to the pension system. In this case the majority rule leads to a completely different solution.     

Public pensions and immigration policy in a democracy

The paper analyzes the link between the public pension system and the immigration policy. In a pay-as-you-go system, the incentives for immigration vary significantly between individuals at different lifetime periods. In the framework of an overlapping generations model, we show that the median voter's choice in general leads to inefficient levels of immigration. The median voter neglects the effects of the externalities within the pension system on other generations. An immigration policy that is not affected by the median voter's choice but instead is constitutionally determined will avoid welfare losses. The expected lifetime income of each generation can be increased by applying a rule of steady immigration.     

养老产业政策体系及其协调性--基于政策文本的量化分析

发展养老产业是应对未来深度老龄化的重要国家战略。聚焦养老产业政策体系,构建其协调性分析框架,选取调查2006—2018年中央、陕西省及安康市的资料,分析国家、省、市三级层面现行养老产业政策文本,应用MAXQDA软件对其进行编码,采用文本内容分析、共词分析、社会网络分析与聚类分析方法,对养老产业政策层级、政策发展历程、政策主体、政策效力、政策专项性、政策内容等进行双维协调性定量分析。研究发现:养老产业政策体系内部不同层级之间政策联系紧密,涉及的政策各要素较为完备,但仍然存在纵向、横向维度中的不协调因素。应通过丰富养老产业政策类型与内容、优化体系结构、加强相关部门合作等有效措施,进一步提升养老产业政策体系的协调性,为推动养老产业的健康可持续发展奠定制度基础。     

How do voters perceive ideological congruence? The effects of winning and losing under different electoral rules

The degree of ideological congruence between citizens and their elected representatives is an important feature of democratic systems of government. A long tradition of literature has examined the ideological linkages between citizens and governments, often drawing attention to the differences (or lack thereof) in congruence across different types of electoral systems. Previous research has largely relied on aggregate-level measures of ideological congruence, such as the ideological distance between the position of the median voter and the government. We turn our attention here to how congruence relationships are perceived by individual voters, and how the perceptions of congruence may vary across electoral system types. This individual-level measure of ideological congruence is important in that individual-level, rather than aggregate-level, congruence has been shown to influence other outcomes such as citizen satisfaction with democratic performance. We expect electoral “winners” – those who voted for a party that entered government – to perceive greater ideological congruence between themselves and the government compared to electoral “losers”. We expect this effect to be stronger in majoritarian systems where political competition takes place primarily between two parties, than in proportional systems where electoral losers are more likely to receive a proportional share of representation. We test these expectations by estimating random-effects regressions of perceived individual-level congruence using data from 54 elections held in 23 democracies included in the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES). The results provide consistent support for our expectations. Electoral winners in all types of electoral systems perceive greater ideological congruence between themselves and the government, and this effect is stronger in majoritarian systems.     

The evolution of Japanese employer-sponsored retirement plans

This article examines the development of Japanese voluntary employer-sponsored retirement plans with an emphasis on recent trends. Until 2001, companies in Japan offered retirement benefits as lump-sum severance payments and/or benefits from one of two types of defined benefit (DB) pension plans. One type of DB plan was based on the occupational pension model used in the United States before the adoption of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA), but lacked the funding, vesting, and other protective features contained in ERISA. The other type of DB plan allowed companies to opt out of the earnings-related portion of social security, commonly referred to as "contracting out." Landmark laws passed in 2001 introduced a new generation of occupational retirement plans to employers and employees. One law increased funding requirements and enhanced employee protections for employer-sponsored DB plans, while a second law introduced defined contribution (DC) plans for several reasons, chiefly to increase retirement savings and help boost Japanese financial markets. These laws complemented earlier changes in the tax code and financial accounting standards already affecting employer-sponsored retirement plans. As a result, new retirement plan designs will replace most prereform era company retirement plans by 2012. In 2001, the experience of 401(k) plans in the United States, where 42 million participants had accumulated more than $1.8 trillion in assets over 20 years, attracted considerable attention among Japanese lawmakers finalizing provisions of the DC pension law. Even with government support and encouragement from the financial services industry, Japanese companies have not adopted these new DC plans in large numbers. As a result, occupational retirement plans in Japan have remained predominantly DB-a surprising development in light of the shift in a number of countries from DB to DC plans observed in recent decades. However, recent proposals to make DC plans more attractive to employers in Japan are likely to be implemented in the near future. This article summarizes the Japanese retirement system, with an emphasis on private-sector employees, and the complementary role played by voluntary employer-sponsored retirement plans; describes the financial pressures that faced retirement plan sponsors in the late twentieth century and the factors motivating the reform of Japanese voluntary retirement plans; examines the 2001 legislative changes that have transformed company retirement plans; and concludes with a review of trends and recent developments in employer-sponsored retirement plans since the implementation of the 2001 pension laws.     

Why chads? Determinants of voting equipment use in the United States

This paper provides an empirical study of the determinants of voting equipment choice in the United States. We document that, in contrast to widespread belief, voting machines of older types, such as lever and punchcard systems, are not used in counties with lower income – and newer machines, such as optical scanners and electronic machines, are not used in – richer counties. We provide an economic explanation for this and other regularities of voting equipment usage in the United States. In our economic framework (a) the adoption of a new technology is more likely in richer and larger counties, but (b) the adoption of a new technology is less likely the more advanced is the technology already adopted in the county. The adoption of more advanced optical and electronic machines in the 1980s and 1990s was less likely in richer and larger counties that had already mechanized and computerized in previous decades than in poorer and smaller – and hence not yet computerized counties. Estimates of historical determinants of voting equipment choice support our hypothesis. In particular, the probability of using punchcard machines in the 1990s is positively related to a county’s income in the 1960s, when punchcard machines were first introduced. When the effect of past income is controlled for, the effect of more recent levels of income on the probability of using punchcard machines becomes negative.     

Voting on Low-Skill Immigration under Different Pension Regimes

Depending on the design of the domestic pension system and thetype of immigrants, voters will decide differently onimmigration policy. In this paper, we investigate the votingoutcome of three groups of heterogeneous voters (skilledworkers, unskilled workers, and retirees) under Beveridgian orBismarckian pension systems which are either of the fixedcontribution rate or the fixed replacement ratio type. We findthat while the use of a Beveridge or Bismarck system does notchange the results qualitatively, the fixed contribution ratevs. fixed replacement ratio distinction leads to substantialchanges in the optimal choices of different groups.     

21世纪西欧国家养老金改革述评

近些年来，西欧各国纷纷进行养老金改革以缓解人口老龄化所可能带来的公共养老金体系的可持续性危机。中国与西欧国家在人口老龄化趋势上面临着类似的压力，本文从老龄经济的视角，以德国、法国、英国三个拥有不同模式养老金体系的国家为研究对象，详细介绍上述三国新世纪养老金体系改革的具体措施，分析改革的共同趋势；并展望中国未来养老金体系的发展方向，认为，以税收优惠和灵活制度安排鼓励第二和第三养老保障支柱的发展是德法英三国改革的共同趋势，也是中国未来养老金体系发展的重要方向。     

Characteristics of individuals with integrated pensions

Employer pensions that integrate benefits with Social Security have been the focus of relatively little research. Since changes in Social Security benefit levels and other program characteristics can affect the benefit levels and other features of integrated pension plans, it is important to know who is covered by these plans. This article examines the characteristics of workers covered by integrated pension plans, compared to those with nonintegrated plans and those with no pension coverage. Integrated pension plans are those that explicitly adjust their benefit structure to help compensate for the employer's contributions to the Social Security program. There are two basic integration methods used by defined benefit (DB) plans. The offset method causes a reduction in employer pension benefits by up to half of the Social Security retirement benefit; the excess rate method is characterized by an accrual rate that is lower for earnings below the Social Security taxable maximum than above it. Defined contribution (DC) pension plans can be integrated along the lines of the excess rate method. To date, research on integrated pensions has focused on plan characteristics, as reported to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) through its Employee Benefits Survey (EBS). This research has examined the prevalence of integration among full-time, private sector workers by industry, firm size, and broad occupational categories. However, because the EBS provides virtually no data on worker characteristics, analyses of the effects of pension integration on retirement benefits have used hypothetical workers, varying according to assumed levels of earnings and job tenure. This kind of analysis is not particularly helpful in examining the potential effects of changes in the Social Security program on workers' pension benefits. However, data on pension integration at the individual level are available, most recently from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a nationally representative survey of individuals aged 51-61 in 1992. This dataset provides the basis for the analysis presented here. The following are some of the major findings from this analysis. The incidence of pension integration in the HRS sample is 32 percent of all workers with a pension (14 percent of all workers). The HRS can also identify integrated DC plans, a statistic that is not available from BLS data. The rate of integration for workers with only DC plans is 8 percent. After controlling for other variables, several socio-demographic characteristics are significantly related to the incidence of integration. The probability of having an integrated pension is 4.6 percentage points less for men compared to women. Non-Hispanic blacks are 6.4 percentage points less likely than non-Hispanic whites to have integrated pensions. Union members are 14 percentage points less likely to have integrated pensions, while workers with less than a graduate level education are at least 15 percentage points more likely to have a pension that is integrated. Some earnings and pension characteristics are also significantly correlated with pension integration. Earnings are positively related, with the probability of having an integrated pension increasing by 2 percentage points for an increase of $1,000 in annual pay. An even larger effect comes from earning at or above the Social Security taxable maximum. Workers at or above this income level are 10 percentage points more likely to have an integrated plan, but for those with more than one plan the probability of pension integration goes up by 13 percentage points.     

The political economy of unfunded public pension liabilities

This paper applies a public choice approach to the problem of unfunded pension liabilities and adopts the methodology of Congleton and Shughart (1990) to model underfunding of state-level public pension plans using the median voter theorem, along with the theory of “capture” by special interest groups, and a combined model of the two. With panel data from 2001 to 2009, the paper finds that the combined model provides the strongest explanation for the current levels of unfunded liabilities; hence, both median voter preferences and special interest group influence are affecting political outcomes. The special interest group model slightly outperforms the median voter model in direct comparisons.     

Personal vote‐seeking in flexible list systems: How electoral incentives shape Belgian MPs' bill initiation behaviour

It is well known that different types of electoral systems create different incentives to cultivate a personal vote and that there may be variation in intra‐party competition within an electoral system. This article demonstrates that flexible list systems – where voters can choose to cast a vote for the list as ordered by the party or express preference votes for candidates – create another type of variation in personal vote‐seeking incentives within the system. This variation arises because the flexibility of party‐in‐a‐district lists results from voters' actual inclination to use preference votes and the formal weight of preference votes in changing the original list order. Hypotheses are tested which are linked to this logic for the case of Belgium, where party‐in‐a‐district constituencies vary in their use of preference votes and the electoral reform of 2001 adds interesting institutional variation in the formal impact of preference votes on intra‐party seat allocation. Since formal rules grant Belgian MPs considerable leeway in terms of bill initiation, personal vote‐seeking strategies are inferred by examining the use of legislative activity as signalling tool in the period between 1999 and 2007. The results establish that personal vote‐seeking incentives vary with the extent to which voters use preference votes and that this variable interacts with the weight of preference votes as defined by institutional rules. In addition, the article confirms the effect of intra‐party competition on personal vote‐seeking incentives and illustrates that such incentives can underlie the initiation of private members bills in a European parliamentary system.