The resilience of the past: government and opposition in Kenya

The article discusses government and opposition in Kenya over the last 100 years. Major democratic changes have occurred, but legacies from the colonial period and Kenya's one-party state endure. Pushback efforts to perpetuate the status quo continue. Subverting formal legal changes, using violence, and polarizing ethnicity are among the means used to consolidate the past. The focus is on the interplay between stasis and change, using comparative political economy theories and similar examples from other times and places. The analysis highlights the resilience of the past and historic barriers to change, thereby raising broader questions and issues that are not well understood.     

Stable instability: the Syrian conflict and the postponement of the 2013 Lebanese parliamentary elections

Given the morass of the Syrian civil war and Lebanon’s exposure to the consequences, this article seeks to explore how the intersecting dynamics of Lebanese domestic conflicts and the multiple implications of the bloodbath in Syria have influenced the behaviour of Lebanese political parties in their ongoing struggle over the formulation of a new electoral law, leading to a broad consensus among the country’s parties to postpone the 2013 parliamentary elections. The article argues that, while the usual attempts to profit at the expense of other groups in society are still present and external patrons still wield great influence, the decision to postpone the elections also demonstrates a degree of pragmatism and political development since, despite dire predictions to the contrary, Lebanon has not succumbed to the return of its own civil war. Instead a complex mixture of pragmatism, elision of interests and external influence, combined with local agency, has led Lebanon into a situation of stable instability.     

How single-member districts are reinforcing local independents and strengthening mayors: on the electoral reform in Polish local government

In this article, we investigate whether the design of the electoral system used in the elections of local councils affects the position of national parties and their main competitors, local independent lists. We study the case of the electoral reform enacted recently in Poland which modified the rules of council elections by introducing the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system, quite rarely used in local elections. Using empirical evidence from the municipalities where FPTP replaced the open-list proportional representation (OLPR) system, we demonstrate that the introduction of single-member districts, and majoritarian rule in council elections, increased the number of single independents, unaffiliated to any party or committee, and limited the (already poor) presence of party candidates and councillors. The reform also strengthened the position of directly elected mayors, in Poland – usually independent, by assuring many of them safe majorities in councils. We found that the share of seats for the winning mayor’s list increased by 10 pp on average after the reform.     

From Brigade to Service: An Examination of the Role of Fire and Rescue Services in Modern Local Government

Over the last ten years, local government modernisation and the growth of community safety agendas have called for change in the public sector at a local level. This has been typified by partnership work, improvement and inspection and community governance. The fire and rescue services, despite some initial cultural difficulties, haveworked hard to adapt themselves to modern local government, for example through community fire safety work, which is presented as a case study. However, the culmination of the modernisation project, Comprehensive Area Assessment, does not favour the fire and rescue service, and to an extent excludes them from its formula. In this light, it seems that there is little incentive for the Fire Service to continue its modernising trajectory.     

The iron law of Erdogan: the decay from intra-party democracy to personalistic rule

Michels’ ‘iron law of oligarchy’ suggests that oligarchic party rule is inevitable, yet many parties have shown a strong commitment to intra-party democracy. However, Turkey’s akp is a typified case of Michels’ law, displaying an explicit commitment to intra-party democracy, only to later abandon it. I ask what factors have facilitated this transformation. Why does the iron law of oligarchy display itself in some parties but not in others? I argue that intra-party democracy owes its existence to three indicators – inclusiveness, decentralisation and institutionalisation. Conversely, it should be observed that a party shifting from democratic to oligarchic or personalistic intra-party rule will display decreasing levels of these three indicators in terms of policy formation and candidate selection. By tracing akp’s internal party operations since its founding in 2001, I demonstrate a gradual deterioration in these indicators, reflecting a gradual deterioration of democracy within the party to oligarchy and then to personalism.     

Knowledge sharing and lesson learning: consultants' perspectives on the international sharing of political marketing strategy

Political marketing consultants who offer specialist skills and experience in political marketing – polling, strategy, voter profiling, segmentation, micro-targeting, voter-responsive product design – travel around the world sharing ideas from one campaign to the next, raising concerns that these unelected advisors wield global power; that political products will become all the same, and political leaders are prevented from offering an appropriate vision geared to the needs of their individual country. Whilst previous literature on political consultancy generally debated whether such global activities represented Americanisation or globalisation this article presents new qualitative interview data with consultants that suggest alternative perspectives. Political marketing strategy and tools are shared, but not just from the USA but between all countries, and they are adapted to suit the particular situation of each country, or indeed, each election. Politics is truly being marketised all over the world but each election remains a unique exercise.     

Islam and Attitudes toward U.S. Policy in the Middle East: Evidence from Survey Research in Lebanon

This study examines the impact of religious orientation on attitudes toward U.S. Middle Eastern policy among Muslim Lebanese. The data came from a stratified random sample, consisting of 262 Sunni and Shi'i respondents of both genders, conducted in the Greater Beirut area during February and March of 2002. Consistent with the literature about Islamism, the present analysis reveals an empirical distinction between personal and political dimensions of religion in Lebanon. Specifically, support for political Islam is associated with unfavorable attitudes toward U.S. policy in the region, but personal religiosity is unrelated to attitudes toward foreign policy. The study findings contribute in clarifying the debate that has been raging since the September 11 attacks, pitting Islam against the West and associating Islam with political violence.     

Why fascists took over the Reichstag but have not captured the Kremlin: a comparison of Weimar Germany and post-Soviet Russia

Like Weimar Germany, contemporary Russia is home to fascist actors and widespread nationalism. But unlike interwar Germany, the party system in post-Soviet Russia is heavily manipulated and civil society remains underdeveloped. This means that fascists have not had a chance to use elections or to penetrate civil society in order to build up political support. The continuing presence of a resolutely authoritarian, yet non-fascist “national leader” (Vladimir Putin) keeps the country from becoming a liberal democracy but it also, for now, makes it less likely that the regime will become fascist.     

Political security: from the 1990s to the Arab Spring

The 1994 Human Development Report (HDR) set out the definition and parameters of political security in fewer than 400 words. It was defined as the prevention of government repression, systematic violation of human rights and threats from militarization. This was intended to establish an agenda that would protect people against states that continued to practice political repression, systematic torture, ill treatment and disappearance. Yet, the concept of political security has evolved in both theory and practice. This has been done through an ongoing debate, which has been shaped more by immediate crises and the practice of international relations, than the parameters set out in the 1994 HDR report. In practice, achieving the ambitions of the political security agenda has become tied to questions of humanitarian assistance and intervention. This was narrowly interpreted throughout the 1990s as a debate surrounding the nature and legitimacy of humanitarian intervention. In the 2000s, this was institutionalized into a Responsibility to Protect agenda, only to see the second decade of the twenty-first century reveal the need for a far more complex and nuanced debate about how this should be carried out.     

South Caucasus from 1918 to 1921: history and historical parallels with the contemporary era

The republics that make up the South Caucasus today gained brief independence after the fall of the Tsarist Empire, before the integration of the region into Bolshevik Russia. This period, even though short, gives interesting historical background to understand the present. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to study the South Caucasian republics from 1918 to 1921 at the regional and international levels, paying particular attention to the historical continuities with the contemporary era (since 1991). The results of the study show three main parallels between the early twentieth century (1918–1921) and the present. First, the region is still internally divided (e.g. the unresolved conflicts). Second, externally, it is torn between sometimes opposing powers (e.g. Russia and the Western powers). Finally, third, the partnerships with international or regional powers still remain asymmetrical; consequently, the need to cooperate with Russia exceeds the aspirations of the Western powers toward the South Caucasus. Based on archival research, this study contributes to the historiography of the region and gives a framework for understanding the South Caucasus in contemporary international relations.     

Designing Health Service Organization in the UK, 1968 to 1998: from Blueprint to Bright Idea and 'Manipulated Emergence'

Four sets of reforms of the National Health Service are employed to illustrate the changing character of policy making in this sector over a thirty year period, from the production of a carefully developed technocratic blueprint for its organization to the promulgation of a series of bright ideas accompanied by incentives for local actors to develop them into concrete organizational arrangements consonant with these ideas. We term this latter approach 'manipulated emergence' and relate it to the literatures of organizational culture and of post-Fordism. The approach adopted by the 1997 Labour government is largely, though not wholly consistent with this, and it remains to be seen whether the high-water mark of manipulated emergence has passed.     

South Tyrol's changing political system: from dissociative on the road to associative conflict resolution

South Tyrol (Italy), with its three officially recognized language groups (Germans, Italians and Ladins), is a successful model of how a minority problem can be solved. It is based upon the principle of dissociative conflict resolution, which means separating the language groups as much as possible between themselves, as well as the principle of consociational democracy, which focuses primarily on the cooperation between the language groups' elites. In the last few years it has been observed that while the institutional frame has not changed, society has, thereby starting to undermine the existing political and institutional system from below. This concerns mainly the ethnic division, which is being questioned more and more by civil society, as well as aspects of cooperation between the elites. As a consequence of this process, South Tyrol's autonomy is moving toward further integration, with the latter again translating into strengthening the two factors of territoriality and identity.     

Iran's Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism: A view from the pulpit

Abstract

This paper examines the Friday prayer sermons delivered by Iran's new leadership to answer the question of whether Iran's Islamic fundamentalism has crested with the death of its spiritual leader Ayatollah Khomeini in June 1989. The analysis shows that an attempt is underway to articulate the Islamic identity of post‐Khomeini Iran in economic, political, and social relations. The study concludes that although President Rafsanjani is willing to reevaluate Iran's domestic and foreign relations, the totalitarian, Islamic, and revolutionary structure that Khomeini helped build is still intact. As such, the regime's tendencies toward radicalism and export of the Islamic revolution remain unchanged. In this scenario, resort to terrorism by the Islamic Republic in order to maintain its structure and tendencies cannot be ruled out.     

Bottom-up peacekeeping in southern Kyrgyzstan: how local actors managed to prevent the spread of violence from Osh/Jalal-Abad to Aravan,June 2010

In the aftermath of the June 2010 violence in southern Kyrgyzstan, much scholarly attention has focused on its causes. However, observers have taken little notice of the fact that while such urban areas as Osh, Jalal-Abad, and Bazar-Korgon were caught up in violence, some towns in southern Kyrgyzstan that were close to the conflict sites and had considerable conflict potential had managed to avoid the violence. Thus, while the question, “What were the causes of the June 2010 violence?” is important, we have few answers to the question, “Why did the conflict break out in some places but not others with similar conflict potential?” Located in the theoretical literature on “the local turn” within peacekeeping studies, this article is based on extensive empirical fieldwork to explore the local and micro-level dimensions of peacekeeping. It seeks to understand why and how local leaders and residents in some places in southern Kyrgyzstan managed to prevent the deadly clashes associated with Osh, Jalal-Abad, and Bazar-Korgon. The main focus of the project is on Aravan, a town with a mixed ethnic population where residents managed to avert interethnic clashes during the June 2010 unrest. The answers to the question of why violence did not occur can yield important lessons for conflict management not only for southern Kyrgyzstan, but also for the entire Central Asian region.     

Law,democracy and the fulfilment of socioeconomic rights: insights from Indonesia

In recent years a debate has emerged about the conditions under which justiciable legal frameworks facilitate the fulfilment of socioeconomic rights. This debate has pitted institutionalist perspectives that emphasise the progressive potential of democratisation against structuralist perspectives that emphasise the constraints imposed by relationships of power and interest. This paper considers the debate in light of Indonesia’s recent experience. It suggests that we need to examine how institutional and structural factors interact within particular contexts to shape socioeconomic rights fulfilment, not examine these factors in isolation. It also considers the strategic implications of this argument for rights proponents.     

Seasonal migration and symbolic power: the case of Muslim Meskhetians from Nasakirali

The repatriation and inclusion of Muslim Meskhetians, forcefully displaced by the Soviet government from Georgia to Central Asia during the 1940s, is still ongoing. In 1977, some Meskhetian families settled in the village of Nasakirali in western Georgia. The Soviet Georgian government built houses for the repatriates in a separate district, referred to as the “Island.” The location acquired a symbolic meaning for Meskhetians. After 40 years of repatriation, Meskhetians still remain “islanders:” isolated from the majority population, speaking a different language, practicing a different religion, and facing different employment opportunities. This study explores the coping mechanisms used by Muslim Meskhetians to sustain themselves and their families and improve their social conditions in a strictly Christian post-socialist country where “Islam is taken as a historical other.” The study primarily asks how employment/seasonal migration in Turkey changed the lives of Meskhetians by adapting their social, cultural, economic, and symbolic capital and became the only viable solution for overcoming social marginalization. The study explores how informality allows social mobility, changes gender attitudes, and helps “islanders” reach the “mainland” by becoming “Halal” – truthful and reliable. The study applies Pierre Bourdieu’s concepts of “capital” and “symbolic power” for understanding Meskhetians’ informal economic practices.     

Peripheral states and conformity to international norms: the dilemma of the marginalised

Abstract

This paper seeks to understand the seemingly paradoxical behaviour of states of the Global South, which on one the hand conform to transnational norms in order to integrate into the international society and on the other hand (sometimes simultaneously) differentiate themselves from them. To that end, this article develops the dilemma of the marginalised in order to show that conformity and differentiation become two paradoxical strategies for marginalised actors to pursue the same goal: equality with powerful states. The transformation of the Organisation of African Unity to the African Union, where significant changes in Africa’s policy vis-à-vis global powers took place, serves as a case study to illustrate how marginalised actors struggle between conformity and differentiation in order to claim their place in the international arena. It also shows how the dilemma of the marginalised can be compelling to help us understand the predicaments of marginalised actors across vastly different situations of structural inequality. Acknowledging the dilemma helps us understand their behaviour rather than to dismiss it as irrational, thereby recognising Third World agency in shaping the international system.     

Myanmar's Electoral System: Reviewing the 2010 and 2012 Elections and Looking Ahead to the 2015 General Elections

Myanmar's 2010 multi-party election was the nation's first in two decades, signaling a manufactured transition from nearly half a century of military dictatorship toward parliamentary democracy. The current single-member district, plurality voting electoral system limits the parliamentary representation of smaller, ethnic political parties, and inflates the influence of larger, enfranchised parties, jeopardizing peaceful national reconciliation between various factions and the country's inchoate democratic institutions. Myanmar's Union Electoral Commission should consider electoral reforms that: (a) maximize proportional representation; (b) guarantee peace and political stability; and (c) guarantee a sufficient parliamentary majority that can govern the nascent democracy. The ideal system for the upcoming 2015 general elections is a Mixed-Member Proportional (MMP) one, with one parliamentary house electing ministers by plurality in regional districts and the other with proportional representation by party list. This paper considers alternative electoral systems in light of the status quo and argues that MMP would produce the most stable and representative results for all parties concerned.