South Korea’s presidential transition and strategic challenges

Moon Jae-in, South Korea's new president, faces stiff domestic challenges and is less inclined towards confrontation with North Korea than either his predecessor or the Trump administration. Nevertheless, South Korea’s alliance with the United States is likely to endure with some modifications and perhaps, given North Korea’s provocations, some upgrades.     

Turkey’s increasingly assertive foreign policy

President Erdogan has moved aggressively in recent years to demonstrate that Turkey sees itself as the pre-eminent political and military power in the Middle East and eastern Mediterranean. This policy shift reflects growing Turkish capabilities, but is also an attempt by Erdogan to preserve his domestic standing amid deteriorating economic conditions that have undermined the popularity of his political party, the AKP.     

Israel’s new government

In May 2020, the formation of a national unity government brought one political crisis to a close just as another began, with the start of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s criminal corruption trial. Israel will be consumed in the coming months by debate over Netanyahu’s legal problems alongside the critical issue of territorial annexation in the West Bank.     

Turkey’s diminishing policy options in Syria

The increase in the Islamic State's power vis-a-vis the moderate Syrian opposition has reduced Turkey’s ability to shape the course of the Syrian conflict in line with its long-term goals of uprooting the Assad regime and expanding its influence in the Middle East. ISIS's rise has also degraded Turkey's domestic security. Ankara currently appears caught between its inability to realise its regional objectives with respect to Syria and its refusal to moderate them, but may soon find political compromise unavoidable.     

India’s new maritime strategys

In a departure from the attitudes of past governments, the Modi administration perceives the Indian Ocean as a foreign-policy priority. With the region now the focus of a new outreach initiative, Modi hopes that his country can act as a stabilising force there.     

Libya’s faltering new government

The new UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) has based itself in Tripoli. But the GNA has failed to muster an effective nationwide military capability and is rivalled for national authority by the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HOR), which controls the Libyan National Army, Libya's most cohesive armed organisation, as well as Libya's oil ports. Although GNA-linked forces have decimated the Islamic State in and around Sirte, the new government's unsteady hold on Tripoli is vulnerable to HOR challenge.     

Taiwan’s presidential election and sino-U.S. relations

This article analyzes the dyadic relationship between mainland China and Taiwan and between China and the United States by focusing on the internal factors in the three countries. It has been an important assumption in theories of international relations that there is an inextricable linkage between foreign policies and domestic socio-economic and political conditions. Yet, policy makers as well as some policy analysts in Beijing, Taipei and Washington still do not pay enough attention to the internal factors in each of the three countries. Misperceptions continue to be a major source for the conflicts in the bilateral relations between mainland China and Taiwan and between China and the United States. More often than not, the misperceptions are culturally and ideologically based. Until the three sides can minimize their misperceptions of the other parties, the future relationships between Beijing and Taipei and between Beijing and Washington look grim indeed. His research interests include East Asian and Chinese politics, political culture and participation in China, Sino-American and cross-Taiwan Strait relations. His publications have appeared in journals such asAsian Survey, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, East European Quarterly, Journal of Contemporary Asia, Journal of Contemporary China, Political Research Quarterly, PS: Political Science and Politics, andProblems of Post-Communism.     

Campaign shocks and party support: evidence from Brazil’s 2014 presidential election

This article investigates the effect of exogenous shocks during an election cycle on electoral outcomes. Specifically, we examine the impact of the unexpected death of a prominent candidate, Eduardo Campos, in the 2014 Brazilian presidential election on support levels for the three main parties. Did the effects die out relatively quickly, providing only a temporary “bounce” or dip in support levels? Or did they alter the fundamentals of the campaign environment and produce a lasting change or “bump” in support levels that lasted until the election? Our results show that while the shock did have short-term effects on all parties’ support, it was only the party that lost its leading candidate where any longer lasting shift in support is detected; we estimate that the party received around 11 percentage points more support than they would otherwise have garnered, had Campos not died. While this was not enough to secure victory, it shows that individual candidates should be understood as a “fundamental” feature of the campaign environment, any change in which is likely to have a lasting effect on voter behavior.     

Enacting multi-layered citizenship: Turkey’s Armenians’ struggle for justice and equality

Throughout the history of the Turkish Republic, Turkey’s Armenians have been subjected to a trade-off between the limited minority rights granted by the 1923 Lausanne Treaty and equal national citizenship. Traditionally a closed, depoliticized community, the citizenship practices of the Armenian minority have become increasingly differentiated in recent years. Building on a notion of citizenship as multi-layered and constituted through collective practice, this article investigates the implications of the political acts of Turkey’s Armenian minority on sub-national and national citizenship in Turkey. We show that Turkey’s Armenians are coupling rights demands, identification, normative references, and mobilization at the sub-national, national, and transnational levels in innovative ways, and are thereby negotiating different layers of citizenship in Turkey in a way that strengthens equal national citizenship.     

Turkey’s tamed civil society: Containment and appropriation under a competitive authoritarian regime

ABSTRACT

Under the Justice and Development Party (AKP) rule, Turkey’s civil society has enlarged both in size and diversity of civic engagement. This development is puzzling since Turkey’s weak democratic credentials do not allow an enabling political and legal setting for civil society’s expansion. This study argues that the expansion can be explained through a particular dilemma of rulers in competitive-authoritarian (CA) regimes. The AKP is caught between the conflicting interests of appropriating and containing civil society. While the government needs to cherish civil society to sustain CA regime, it also needs to repress it, as civil society is the only arena where dissenting social forces can still carve pockets of resistance and challenge the dominant paradigms of the regime. Based on extensive fieldwork, this study discusses the patterns of containment and appropriation that have led to the steady expansion of civil society under pressure. The AKP’s dilemma has also rendered Turkey’s civil society ‘tamed’, namely politicized, disabled and segregated. The study broadens the understanding of relations between civil society and the state in CA regimes by offering essential insights into how these regimes are sustained, entrenched and also contested through and within civil society.     

It’s the economy, and then some: modeling the presidential vote with state panel data

Using data for the 50 US states for presidential elections from 1972 to 2004 two theories for determining state voting outcomes are considered jointly: the ‘economy matters’ and ‘home grown-ness’ theories. Fixed-effects regressions show that measures of the ‘economy matters’ (real income, unemployment and a proxy for inflation) have the predicted effects on state voting patterns for presidential elections. The home grown theory receives mixed support. There is weak evidence that incumbent-party candidates garner greater support in their home states. There is strong support, however, for the proposition that incumbent-party candidates fare worse in the home state of rival-party candidates.     

Levi’s Auschwitz and Dante’s Hell

On reading Primo Levi’s Holocaust memoir If This is a Man, one is immediately struck by its literary quality, and especially its generous use of Dante’s Inferno, both of which point to the more general problem of Holocaust witnessing. This paper focuses on Levi’s reasons for using Dante’s poem in particular to communicate his experience. Levi’s choice of Inferno is pointed, not only because of the obvious trope of existence in Hell, but also because Levi conceived of Auschwitz as an experiment designed to destroy the “human,” created in part, at least in the West, by Dante’s poem. What I will be suggesting is that Levi emphasizes the distinctions between his and Dante’s experiences by including in his conversation with Dante’s Inferno (paradoxically) his rejection of that conversation. There may or may not be something “human” which persists after Auschwitz, and the only way to ask this question, without preconceiving an answer, is to dramatize silence. The resultant ambiguity urges readers to, as Levi puts it, “participate in” the events described and/or dramatized.

British nationalists’ new start

The right‐extremist Front National, led by Jean Marie Le Pen, has gained significant support among the electorate. The Front's campaign is populist and it exploits the resurgence of xenophobic feeling in France, using the imagery of antisemitism to influence public opinion.     

Learn,Frame and Deploy? Cross-National Policy Ideas and Comparisons in Turkey’s Health Reform

Comparative analysis in health policy not only helps us learn about the organization of health care systems and reforms in other countries but also addresses the difficulties of drawing cross-national policy lessons. This case study on the Turkish health reform of 2003 focuses on the national policy discourse to identify how cross-national ideas and comparative analyses are used by policymakers and other key stakeholders. Building on the ideational perspectives and Kingdon’s streams approach, it explores agenda setting and ideological framing activities. The results provide evidence for the political nature of the process whereby cross-national ideas were deployed in domestic policy battles.     

Libya’s conflict

With the battle for Tripoli, Libya’s civil war has entered a key stage. Powerful outside states are fuelling the conflict, and recent events have raised the prospect of more direct military intervention. No diplomatic solution is foreseeable while the United Nations Security Council’s permanent members support different factions. Moreover, each side in the conflict currently believes it can achieve more through fighting than through the necessary compromises of a peace settlement.     

Israel’s election

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears most likely to form Israel’s next government following its election on 9 April, although it is unclear how stable such a government would be. Further elections within the next two years are quite possible. Whatever the outcome of the election, Israel’s next leader will be forced to address a range of serious and interrelated strategic challenges.