族群分裂与宗教冲突:伊斯兰国恐怖组织的崛起、特征与发展前景

极端恐怖组织伊斯兰国的诞生与美国发动伊拉克战争、挑起叙利亚内战紧密相关,也与基地组织密切相连。在"建国"目标、军事能力、财政经费、招募手段、人员构成等方面伊斯兰国远远超过了基地组织,由此开辟了恐怖主义的新纪元。伊斯兰国极端恐怖组织与行为具有极端残忍性、种族主义、宗教分裂与教派冲突、国际化和国家实体化的特征。在美国及盟国、俄罗斯的打击下,伊斯兰国的军事攻势和侵略扩张将受到有效遏制,但伊斯兰国的组织及其恐怖行为将依然长期存在,而且有死灰复燃的可能;随着战略收缩,伊斯兰国有可能在中东地区以外的国家如欧美西方国家以及中国、印尼、马来西亚等,发动更频繁的恐怖袭击。     

美《新闻周刊》 大家都未注意到的重要情况

过去的一年是“9.11”恐怖事件之后第一年。因此,在2002年即将过去之际,现在正是回顾一下的时候,那么“到底谁是世界新秩序的赢家和输家呢?”输家显然是萨达姆、沙特阿拉伯、穆巴拉克、阿拉法特,当然还有“基地”组织。“基地”组织可能没有被消灭,而是在逃。而赢家是以色列、印度和饿罗斯。很     

英国国防学院冲突研究中心(CSRC)最新报告——北高加索上空的鹰 第二次车臣战争中的俄军空中力量

始于1999年秋的第二次车臣冲突分为两个阶段。第一阶段包括俄军在达吉斯坦共和国实施的三次军事行动,时间为1999年8至9月;第二阶段从1999年开始,到目前仍在持续。俄军空中力量在冲突早期的使用背景和作战达吉斯坦是俄联邦的一个共和国,由30多个以穆斯林为主的民族组成。1999年8至9月间,俄军在该共和国实施了三次反击车臣叛乱分子进攻的军事行动。1999年8月初,车臣与达吉斯坦边境的紧张气氛不断加剧,俄军第一次军事行动是回击几股伊斯兰武装分子(总数约为1500人)的进攻。后者自8月2日起从车臣渗透至达吉斯坦西部地区并占领了一些村庄;俄军第二次作战行动始于8月29日, 目的是结束伊斯兰武装分子从1年前开始对这些地区的控制;9月5日,俄军实施了第三次作战行动,主要目的是阻止约2000 名车臣伊斯兰武装分子向其已入侵地区以     

韩国反恐法案为何长期搁浅?

正在野党坚持认为,如果国家情报院成为反恐主力,组织规模将过于庞大,可能导致一系列问题。而在立法上操之过急,韩国也有一些现实教训。1月20日上午,韩国政府和执政的新世界党在国会就反恐对策召开党政会议,呼吁在野党对通过反恐法展现积极的态度。1月14日印尼雅加达市中心的数起爆炸和枪击事件,造成包括5名凶嫌在内27人伤亡,"伊斯兰国"声称对此负责。此事表明中东恐怖主义蔓延到亚太国家,令韩国政府深感威胁。在被"伊斯兰国"锁定为将     

学“讲话”见行动 北京分局丰台工务段现场办公

丰台电务段工会以“学‘讲话’见行动”为主题,积极组织各车间工会干部学习江总书记“七一”重要讲话,在思想理论进一步提高的基础上,于8月20日至24日,由段工会主席带队,深入     

“伊斯兰国”对美国全球战略的影响

<正>2014年8月以后,面对"伊斯兰国"对中东地区和全球构成的严重威胁和挑战,美国在一个多月内通过一系列外交努力迅速组织起有近50个国家参与的反"伊斯兰国"全球联盟,其中有十国左右加入了以美国为首的空中打击行动。美国在打击"伊斯兰国"的问题上获得广泛支持的同时,也面临着自身全球战略选择的难题和考验。过去六年,以从伊拉克撤军为抓手,奥巴马政府对美国全球战略进行了以收缩为特征的重大调整,基本     

恐怖组织能力在升级

人们对“纽约港事件”的关注,首先集中在对恐怖主义的认识上。可以说,这次恐怖事件也是人类有史以来规模最大,造成损失最严重,影响最大的恐怖事件,它标志着世界范围内的恐怖主义浪潮的一个高峰,标志着恐怖主义从一般的行动上升为世界规模的战争,标志着世界恐怖主义性质的变化,可能也使越来越多的人们认识到,恐怖主义现在已经超过了美国一再声称的所谓“导弹武器的扩散”的威胁,超过了毒品的威胁,成为对人类生存、安全和生活价值观念的最大威胁。     

法国军机来袭

法国总统奥朗德9月19日发表公报说，法国“阵脚’式战斗机已于当天上午开始行动，对“伊斯兰国”位于伊拉克东北部的目标进行了空袭。未来几天法军还将继续采取行动。     

“伊斯兰国”与“基地”:恐怖双煞的竞争

<正>"伊斯兰国"的崛起,明显损害了"基地"组织的"名气"与"正统",触发了双方愈演愈烈的竞争。但双方就战略问题争论之后,最终可能会在哈里发国家模式上趋于一致。"伊斯兰国是当今世界最危险的恐怖主义组织。"澳大利亚反恐专家戴维·基尔卡伦说,"这是因为他们既具备‘基地'组织的作战能力,又具备真主党的管理能力。"与"基地"组织相比,"伊斯兰国"不依赖国外捐款和国际金融系统,而是从富产石油的本地获得收入,从而能在全世界招兵买马。目前,"伊斯兰国"控     

泛伊斯兰主义：概念、实践及思想主张

泛伊斯兰主义也被称为“原型民族主义”或“大民族主义”,它是行为主体针对穆斯林群体进行宣传动员,试图通过促成“伊斯兰联合”以实现特定政治目标的主张和实践,其标志性特征是：使用伊斯兰符号、谋求政治目标和实施跨国行动。泛伊斯兰主义的行为主体可能是非穆斯林,其实践和理论主张也是多元的,纳米克·凯末尔、哲马鲁丁·阿富汗尼和部分伊斯兰主义者对为什么“联合”的见解各异。纳米克·凯末尔的着眼点是挽救奥斯曼帝国危机。阿富汗尼的核心关切是伊斯兰复兴和反对帝国主义。伊斯兰主义中的泛伊斯兰主义支系可称为“全球伊斯兰主义”,它对“伊斯兰秩序”有特殊解读,主张建立与“乌玛”空间重叠的、覆盖全球的哈里发国家,其中的激进极端主义派别还主张“全球圣战”。泛伊斯兰主义不是伊斯兰主义的标配,而只是部分伊斯兰主义者的偏好和选择。泛伊斯兰主义的力量来自伊斯兰教固有的感召力以及穆斯林的宗教信仰和感情,但它所倡导的“伊斯兰联合”和“穆斯林团结”主要服务于特定政治目标的手段,其“政治性”和“工具性”使它有别于伊斯兰教规定的教胞互助互爱原则。     

Impacts of Bribery in Healthcare in Vietnam

This study explores how bribery in the health sector is associated with people’s well-being and with universal health coverage. By using the data of Vietnam from 2011 and 2012, this study reveals a negative correlation between the prevalence of bribery and health outcomes and the health insurance coverage. Additionally, the results indicate that bribers feel neither cured of injury/disease nor satisfied with healthcare service quality. Furthermore, there is a significantly negative correlation between the belief of the necessity to give a bribe and the health insurance enrolment decision.     

上海青少年网吧经验调查分析

网络时代给青少年的生存方式带来了巨大变化，而青少年网吧经验的探究是认识这一问题的路径之一。本文通过定量研究的方法，分析网吧青少年的基本情况、网络使用经验、以及网络成瘾状况，以期能够对青少年网吧经验做一描述性分析。最后，就网吧管理和青少年服务提出如下建议：规范网吧管理规定、实施统一执法队伍，加强青少年网络教育、丰富青少年休闲场所，引入社会工作制度、促进家庭功能恢复。     

The challenge of design of intergovernmental relations in economies in transition

The governments of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union are at a crucial juncture in their movement from highly centralized command economies to more decentralized market economies. While there is a belief in these countries that decentralization brings greater economic efficiency, the reality is that such a transition is a difficult process. This paper examines what types of administrative reforms are needed for the decentralization process, how far along the countries are with respect to these reforms, and what reforms are missing. As we discuss, many of the necessary administration reforms are missing and we argue that more attention must be paid to these elements for successful decentralization of these governments.

This paper examines the recent experience and reform needs of the key administrative aspects of the design of intergovernmental relations in countries in transition in Eastern Europe and in the former Soviet Union. There is a widespread realization in all of these countries that decentralizing government will help increase efficiency in the public sector just as privatization will improve efficiency in their economies. Decentralization of government operations is also attractive as a way to cement a democratic form of government. Despite the appearances of the existence of an already decentralized system, such as in the case of the Soviet Union, this experiment started in practically all cases with a lack of institutions and experience on how decentralized government operations should be organized.

As different as these countries are, there are many similarities in the reform process they are following in order to decentralize government structure. While the basic components of a decentralized system of government are emerging in many of these countries the structure of government has not fully evolved in a manner that can support such a decentralized system. Often, governments remain structured along a vertical hierarchy: information, budgetary authority, and revenue pass from the central government down to subnational levels of government while little communication or interaction exists at a horizontal level. In general, the assignment of revenue and expenditure has not been clearly defined among the two or three levels of government, central government transfers continue to occur in a relatively ad hoc manner, and the entire budgeting system still rests in many cases on more or less formal system of negotiations and bargaining among the different levels of government. There has been some change in this structure in certain countries. Over the last three years, both Poland and Hungary have legally increased the automony of subnational governments. In 1994 in Russia a new and more transparent system of intergovernmental grants has been established between the federal government and the regions. In 1994 also, Latvia introduced a more transparent formula-driven, transfer formula for the regional and municipal governments.

The focus of this paper is to develop a “blue print” for necessary changes in organization and administration of intergovernmental relations in countries in transition. While many experts have recently been discussing the public finance policy components of this new, evolving relationship among levels of government, less attention has been paid to the structural and administrative challenges and the information design issues that must be met in order to develop and support a system of intergovernmental relations.

The paper is organized as follows: First we review the major responsibilities and their allocation among levels of government, the assignment of revenue sources, and the system of transfers. We then turn to a discussion of the current experience of Eastern European and NIS countries in the context of the structural components of an intergovernmental fiscal system. Next, we analyze the organizational reforms that are necessary for the efficient functioning of a decentralized system of government in the economies in transition. Finally we “rate” the transition economies in relation to their current design of the system of intergovernmental relations and support mechanisms.     

Changes in surveillance of regulatory enforcement progragrammes in Singapore

In recent years Myanmar underwent drastic political changes. While many see these changes as first tentative steps towards democratization, we argue that the current political transformation is not a deliberate process of liberalization, but a survival strategy of the military regime. Using arguments of the ‘new institutionalism’ as a theoretical foundation, this article explores the hypothesis that the high degree of professionalization of the Burmese military creates the incentive to institutionalize power-sharing among the ruling elite. Our empirical analysis finds evidence for both a highly professionalized military and institutions that by securing the military's continuing dominance serve the purpose of institutionalizing military power- sharing. These results imply that further democratization is unlikely as it must be initiated from within the still dominating military itself.     

Slapping Accountability in the Face: Observance of Accountability in Malawi's Local Governments in the Absence of Councilors

Against the background of Malawi having had no councilors since the second quarter of 2005, this article aims at establishing the effects of the absence of councilors on the promotion of accountability as a tenet of good governance as espoused in the National Decentralization Policy. Adopting a mixed research design with a strong bias towards qualitative research methodologies, the article finds out that in the absence of councilors, observance of accountability by local governments has been negatively affected. The article argues that in the absence of councilors there has been reversal of accountabilities whereby horizontal accountability has been given more emphasis than vertical accountability; having a secretariat that is both a decision-maker and implementer of decisions has been a recipe for abuse of power; and interim mechanisms and emerging institutions responsible for advocating accountability are limited and a mockery of good governance.     

The Portrayal of Female Terrorists in the Media: Similar Framing Patterns in the News Coverage of Women in Politics and in Terrorism

Abstract

Although women have been among the leaders and followers of terrorist organizations throughout the history of modern terrorism, the mass media typically depict women terrorists as interlopers in an utterly male domain. A comparison of the framing patterns in the news about women in politics and the entrenched stereotypes in the coverage of female terrorists demonstrates similarities in the depiction of these legitimate (women in politics) and illegitimate political actors (women in terrorism). Just like the managers of election campaigns are cognizant of the electorate's stereotypical gender perceptions, terrorist organizations know about and exploit cultural gender clichés that are reinforced by the media. The argument here is that the implementation of anti- and counterterrorist policies must not be influenced by the mass-mediated images of female terrorists because they do not reflect reality.     

中东地区社会政治思潮发展趋势简析

中东地区社会风气相对保守,不容易受外部世界思想的影响。近年来,中东地区社会政治思潮没有出现什么大的波动。但回顾2008年中东地区发展形势以及内外关系的互动,还是可以看出该地区在社会政治以及政治思潮方面的一些苗头性或倾向性趋势。