何为布什主义

布什执政以来,推行导弹防御系统,退出反导条约,借反恐提出“先发制人”理论,先后发动打击阿富汗和伊拉克两场战争,以“遏制”与“威慑”为中心的“布什主义(Bush Doctrine)”露出真实面目。     

Russian Hypersonic Glide Vehicles: What to Know and What to Fear

Recent news of hypersonic tests in both Russia and China stoke fears of a technological gap for the United States. However, a sober analysis of the state of hypersonic technology raises doubts of its capabilities, or usefulness in military operations. Instead, overassessment of hypersonics gives them their strategic value: political leverage. A nuclear-tipped hypersonic might not actually tilt the balance of deterrence at all but would nonetheless require a complex arms control negotiation between the United States, Russia, and China. A conventional hypersonic would have to overcome serious technical barriers to even match current precision weapon systems, but not fulling knowing the system’s capabilities means the United States must treat it as a credible threat. Without a careful measure of the technology, policymakers risk diplomatic missteps, budgetary waste, and an escalatory miscalculation.     

北非中东政治变局原因初探

2010年底起于突尼斯、2011年以来迅速扩散的北非、中东动荡引起了世界广泛关注,其发生的根源、发展趋势及其影响、对中国的启示及中国的应对也是目前我国政界、学界集中探讨的热点问题。当前中东变局的深层根源是什么?骨牌效应会扩散到哪里?会不会改变中东政治力量对比甚至重塑中东战略格局?会不会影响全球战略态势?中东变局对中国的经济影响与战略影响如何?中国从中东变局的发生根源及其影响中可得到些什么启示?围绕这些问题,中国现代国际关系研究院《现代国际关系》杂志社于2011年3月10日举办了题为"当前北非、中东变局及其影响"的学术研讨会,来自北京大学、清华大学、中国人民大学、中共中央党校、国防大学、北京航空航天大学、北京外国语大学、南开大学、中国社会科学院及中国现代国际关系研究院的20多位专家学者与会。他们从不同角度就上述问题展开了热烈而深入的探讨。现将部分与会专家学者的主要观点辑录如下,以飨读者。     

What Kind of Mechanism

Yang: In recent years, under the new international security environment, multilateralism has gradually played greater roles in various international and regional topics, especially in the settlement of regional security issues. Theoretically, regional multi-lateral security cooperation can increase the cost of destroying the status quo or invasion while increasing mutual confidence, alleviating feeling of security threat, decreasing or eliminating security predicament. This is caused by the limitations of the mechanism and the consideration of cost.……     

What Next for NATO?

Whether or not nato still matters depends on whether or not it is able to deliver security where needed, which in turn depends on whether a broader agreement on its overall mission can be developed and sustained. U.S. security policy goals and the Europeans’ ability to share American priorities and accept the attendant risks are the main variables as nato's problems with ongoing operations deepen, especially the increasingly uphill battle its troops face in Afghanistan. Operations in that country are becoming the key test for nato's viability.     

What Would Harvey Say?

Former Secretary of the Navy remembers his classmate from the University of Pennsylvania's International Relations program. Their subsequent careers intersected often in the years ahead—in Philadelphia, Washington, and beyond. John Lehman said Harvey “was an invaluable counsel on matters great and small, professional and personal.”     

What is Development Studies?

This article is concerned with some initial reflections on the distinctive features of Development Studies (DS). The aim is to trigger further debate, rather than attempt ‘closure’. Discussion of the nature of DS is timely because of the expansion of taught courses at various levels during the previous decade; because of sustained critiques of DS in recent years; and because DS has entered a period of introspection – illustrated by several journal special issues and events – to identify its defining characteristics. The author argues that DS is a worthwhile endeavour (how could a concern with reducing global poverty not be?), but the field of enquiry needs to think about how it addresses heterogeneity in the ‘Third World(s)’ and how it opens space for alternative ‘voices’.     

What Is Critical Globalization Studies?

From a critical perspective, precisely what kind of knowledge about globalization is meaningful? The distinctive province of a critical orientation to globalization is coming to be defined by a complex of five interacting components: reflexivity, historicism, decentering, crossovers between social inquiry and other streams of knowledge, and an emphasis on strategic transformations. Critical globalization studies may be employed to identify diverse tendencies in world order, parts of a contradictory whole that coexist, with different logics colliding with one another. These are elements of the old configuration, multilateral globalization ; the contemporary structure, militarized globalization ; and the potential constellation, democratic globalization . The motor of transformation is not only countervailing power but also alternative knowledge, which should be demystifying and enabling.     

What could Development Studies be?

Over the past 10–15 years there has been an expansion of interest in the subject of Development Studies (DS). There are now significantly more taught courses focused on DS, and research funds are booming. However, over the same period, DS has faced sustained critiques about its essential nature. This has led us to ask: what is Development Studies? And what could or should it be?     

What Is Training All About?

This article compares "training" to "education" generally and, specifically, with respect to the question of how this distinction plays a role in teaching negotiation and the possible emergence of a "second generation" of negotiation theory and practice.     

What really happened at Paris?

Lloyd E. Ambrosius, Woodrow Wilson and the American Diplomatic Tradition: The Treaty Fight in Perspective, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1987. £27.50.

British Documents on Foreign Affairs: Reports and Papers from The Foreign Office Confidential Print (General Editors K. Bourne and D. Cameron Watt). Part II. From the First to the Second World War. Series I. The Paris Peace Conference of 1919 (ed.) M. Dockrill, Vols. 1-7. University Publications of America, 1989. $1050 (14 vols).

Bruce Kent, The Spoils of War. The Politics, Economics and Diplomacy of Reparations 1918-1932, Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1989. £40.

F.S. Northedge, The League of Nations: Its Life and Times 1920-1946, Leicester: Leicester University Press, paperback edition, 1988, £12.95.

Klaus Schwabe, Woodrow Wilson, Revolutionary Germany, and Peace-making, 1918-1919: Missionary Diplomacy and the Realities of Power. Translated from the German by Rita and Robert Kimber, Chapel Hill, NC: University of North Carolina Press, 1985. $40.

Arthur Walworth, Wilson and His Peacemakers: American Diplomacy at the Paris Peace Conference, 1919, New York: Norton, 1986 £24.75.     

What Makes Conflict Resolution Possible?

Much of the negotiation literature emphasizes dispute resolution process, seemingly based on the assumption that resolution is indeed possible in a rational environment. The author outlines the history of transformations in social and political thought that have led to this shared assumption. However, the rationality assumption is seriously challenged in the contemporary era by terrorists and others who predicate their actions on a moral certitude that justifies their actions, no matter what the costs. Interveners perhaps should place more emphasis on changing the environment in which disputes occur, so that resolution is at least a possibility.     

What makes the European identity?

This paper aims to find out the factors that affect the formation of European identity, by which the author means a self-identification of individual citizens of the EU member states with this supranational entity. Following a comprehensive and critical review of the main approaches which try to explain the formation of European identity, i.e. the essentialist, rational choice, functionalist, social–psychological, social-constructivist, and neo-institutionalist approaches, the author establishes his hypothesis: what matter most in the shaping of a European identity are the factors of rational choice and institutional construction. This hypothesis is being examined with statistical analyses on the Eurobarometer Trend File Database, as well as against historical experiences.     

Failed States After 9/11: What Did We Know and What Have We Learned?

This paper addresses the relationship between accumulated knowledge and U.S. policy dealing with failed states and terrorism. The central thesis is threefold: (1) that more was known about the possible linkages between failing states and terrorism than appears in pre-9/11 U.S. policies; (2) that since 9/11 some important realignment of knowledge and practice has occurred, but it remains partial and incomplete; and (3) that new knowledge, especially about the policies to sustain and promote legitimate governance, needs to be generated in order to support an effective grand strategy for addressing the threats and challenges of the twenty-first century. The paper recommends such a grand strategy and, in addition to the required new knowledge, a significant reorganization of the U.S. national security policy-making apparatus. International studies curricula appear well suited for contributing to that new knowledge and the practitioners we require.     

What Went Wrong with NATO?

This article provides a perspective on strategic trends in the NATO alliance and the broader transatlantic relationship. It evaluates the extent of NATO's successes and failures over the last 15 years in the areas of the Balkans, NATO enlargement, and the international campaign against terrorism. The central conclusion is that, while NATO's members have significant technical reforms available that could help to reinvigorate the institution, none is likely to come to fruition without a major change in strategic concepts on both sides of the Atlantic.     

What really happened at Paris?

Lloyd E. Ambrosius, Woodrow Wilson and the American Diplomatic Tradition: The Treaty Fight in Perspective, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1987. £27.50.

British Documents on Foreign Affairs: Reports and Papers from The Foreign Office Confidential Print (General Editors K. Bourne and D. Cameron Watt). Part II. From the First to the Second World War. Series I. The Paris Peace Conference of 1919 (ed.) M. Dockrill, Vols. 1–7. University Publications of America, 1989. $1050 (14 vols).

Bruce Kent, The Spoils of War. The Politics, Economics and Diplomacy of Reparations 1918–1932, Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1989. £40.

F.S. Northedge, The League of Nations: Its Life and Times 1920–1946, Leicester: Leicester University Press, paperback edition, 1988, £12.95.

Klaus Schwabe, Woodrow Wilson, Revolutionary Germany, and Peace‐making, 1918–1919: Missionary Diplomacy and the Realities of Power. Translated from the German by Rita and Robert Kimber, Chapel Hill, NC: University of North Carolina Press, 1985. $40.

Arthur Walworth, Wilson and His Peacemakers: American Diplomacy at the Paris Peace Conference, 1919, New York: Norton, 1986 £24.75.     

China: Converging to What?

Rather than looking at the entire East Asian region, this article studies one of its major economies--that of China--and questions where it is heading. After outlining the history of the Chinese economy over the past two decades, during which it moved toward an increasingly market-based economy, Perkins contends that the Chinese system is still not close enough to the Anglo-American model to comply with international standards as exemplified by the World Trade Organisation (WTO) or the International Monetary Fund (IMF). China is instead closer to the South Korean and Japanese models, where the state plays a greater role in the economy. Yet even this similarity is limited, making China's economy unique among all others in the current international order. While China must continue to move toward an economy in accordance with international norms, the current situation requires an international organisation that will recognise China's advances rather than demand immediate compliance.     

What makes good development management?

In a previous paper published in 1996, the author gave two views of development management. One was management in the context of development as historical change. The other was the management of deliberate efforts at progress, of development tasks. This paper adds a third: a style of management with a development orientation, that is, an orientation towards progressive change. It is argued that this third view allows for a normative definition of development management. Thus a distinctive notion of what is good development management is that it should consistently promote the values of development at all levels, even if this is not the most straightforward way of getting particular development tasks done successfully.