The effect of (the absence of) multinationals' foreign direct investment on the level of Eastern European trade

Identifying the most important systemic characteristics that have determined the behavior of CPEs is crucial for the choice of a transition path within the ongoing economic reforms in these countries. The empirical literature on the comparative behavior of CPEs and MEs often gives little help in explaining exactly why the economic performance of CPEs differs from that of MEs. This is certainly the case for studies that have previously examined the comparative levels of CPE trade. Employing the data and methodology of an existing study (Browning, 1985), and adding a variable representing the level of MNC activity in each country, it is shown that the low levels of CPE trade can be completely explained by the NMC activity, without recourse to other effects of the economic system.     

Slack resources,exploratory and exploitative innovation and the performance of small technology-based firms at incubators

This paper aims to contribute (1) to the understanding about how small technology-based firms in spite of being constrained by limited resources, can still perform exploratory and exploitative innovation and (2) to extend knowledge about the role of slack resources in the context of small technology-based firms in facilitating those innovation activities. Herein, we focus on two types of slack resources: internal slack, resources that are available within the firms and external slack, additional resources that are gathered through the facilitation of external sources such as business incubators. Using a sample of 141 small technology-based firms located at incubators, this study combined two streams of research on incubator studies and innovation to construct some hypotheses examining the role of slack resources and innovation activities in enhancing the performance of small technology-based firms operating in incubator setting. Our findings demonstrate that neither slack resources nor innovation activities alone explain firm performance. Instead, small technology-based firms fit their innovation activities to their slack resources. While the relationship between internal slack and performance is mediated by exploitative innovation, exploratory innovation plays a role as a mediator for the relationship between external slack and performance.     

Exploring a Regional Technical Efficiency Frontier in the Former USSR

Using 1971–90 panel data from a Siberian province, two econometric methods are used side by side to examine technical inefficiency with a suggestion as to how the methods might be used in sequence. Estimates derived from a random effects method reveal that technical inefficiency is both substantial and not time invariant. Results using either a random or fixed effects method suggest that existing estimates of technical inefficiency in centrally planned economies may be biased downward because of the choice of the estimation method. Using either method, the increasing technical inefficiency found is likely to be one cause of the decline in the performance of centrally planned economies and their regions.     

Topics in macro-modelling of East European countries in the period of transition

Central and European former Centrally Planned Economies (CPEs) entered a period of transition towards market economies. The evolution is marked by a transition from shortage- to demand-determined economies, associated with the abandonment of price control and the introduction of tight wage control. Stabilization programmes (in Poland from 1990), implementing tough deflationary fiscal and monetary policies, brought about the suppression of hyperinflation. The high adjustment costs — deep recession, high rates of unemployment — are characteristics of the early '90s. The deregulation of the public sector and the building of the private one commenced, and will be a long-lasting process. To meet the changes in economic regimes and mechanisms, the existing models had to be adequately respecified and new models constructed. The large W-5 macromodel for Poland, which covers the final and intermediate demands, had to be extended to introduce the market adjustment mechanisms and, more broadly, the financial flows. To meet the needs of short-term financial policies, new quarterly models had to be built, as, for instance, the WK macromodel for the Polish economy. The paper discusses the major problems of the models' specification under the data constraints.     

Modeling Supreme Court Strategic Decision Making: The Congressional Constraint

This paper addresses the contradictory results obtained by Segal (1997) and Spiller and Gely (1992) concerning the impact of institutional constraints on the U.S. Supreme Court's decision making. By adapting the Spiller and Gely maximum likelihood model to the Segal dataset, we find support for the hypothesis that the Court adjusts its decisions to presidential and congressional preferences. Data from 1947 to 1992 indicate that the average probability of the Court being constrained has been approximately one‐third. Further, we show that the results obtained by Segal are the product of biases introduced by a misspecified econometric model. We also discuss how our estimation highlights the usefulness of Krehbiel's model of legislative decision making.     

Forecasting economies in transition: The case of Romania

Structural change is endemic in the Eastern European economies and the newly emerging Commonwealth of Independent States yet conventional econometric modelling techniques proceed under the assumption that there is a structurally stable ‘true’ economy to be discovered. This paper extends the analysis of Hall (1993) by exploring the consequences of endemic structural change for forecasting and building structural econometric models. We propose a model formulation which makes the econometric model itself able to adjust its parameters in the light of economic change using the Kalman Filter. The paper then illustrates this approach by building a small model of Romania and investigating its forecasting properties.     

A Procedure for Calculating the Vertical Space Height of the Sacrum When Determining Skeletal Height for Use in the Anatomical Method of Adult Stature Estimation

Estimating stature from skeletonized remains is one of the essential parameters in the development of a biological profile. A new procedure for determining skeletal height (SKH) incorporating the vertical space height (VSH) from the anterior margin of the sacral promontory to the superior margins of the acetabulae for use in the anatomical method of stature estimation is introduced. Regression equations for stature estimation were generated from measurements of 38 American males of European ancestry from the William M. Bass Donated Skeletal Collection. The modification to the procedure results in a SKH that is highly correlated with stature (r = 0.925–0.948). Stature estimates have low standard errors of the estimate ranging from 21.79 to 25.95 mm, biases from to 0.50 to 0.94 mm, and accuracy rates from 17.71 mm to 19.45 mm. The procedure for determining the VSH, which replaces “S1 height” in traditional anatomical method models, is a key improvement to the method.     

Does Capital Punishment Have a Deterrent Effect? New Evidence from Postmoratorium Panel Data

Evidence on the deterrent effect of capital punishment is importantfor many states that are currently reconsidering their positionon the issue. We examine the deterrent hypothesis by using county-level,postmoratorium panel data and a system of simultaneous equations.The procedure we employ overcomes common aggregation problems,eliminates the bias arising from unobserved heterogeneity, andprovides evidence relevant for current conditions. Our resultssuggest that capital punishment has a strong deterrent effect;each execution results, on average, in eighteen fewer murders—witha margin of error of plus or minus ten. Tests show that resultsare not driven by tougher sentencing laws and are robust tomany alternative specifications.     

Responding to the immunoglobulin shortage: a case study

In fall 1997, a shortage of intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) developed in the United States because of increased demand for the product, reduced supply, and product recalls. This shortage is a useful model for understanding how our health care system responds to scarcity. Although the U.S. government took steps to inform the medical community of the shortage, with few exceptions, the government did not respond to the shortage in a timely or effective manner. Instead, it took a relatively passive role, leaving IVIG manufacturers and distributors, health care institutions, and clinicians to fend for themselves. The shortage likely had an uneven impact on patients, based on the relative market strength of the health care institutions in which they received care and the individual patient's ability to absorb the increasing out-of-pocket costs of scarce IVIG. Market mechanisms have now largely alleviated the shortage and significantly reduced its detrimental impact on patients. However, future shortages of IVIG or other scarce medical products, such as vaccines and antibiotics, would benefit from more immediate and coordinated efforts not only to make sure that scarce health care resources are distributed in a just manner but also to identify and remedy the sources of health product supply problems.     

Modelling structural change using the Kalman Filter

Structural change is endemic in the Eastern European economies and the newly emerging Commonwealth of Independent States, yet conventional econometric modelling techniques proceed under the assumption that there is a structurally stable ‘true’ economy to be discovered. This paper explores the consequences of endemic structural change for econometric modelling by considering the model reduction problem when the data generation process is itself undergoing structural change. The resultant econometric model, it is argued will generally exhibit time varying parameters where much of the structural change is reflected in the changing parameters. The use of Kalman Filters to estimate such changing parameters is then discussed and a range of specifications which allow the inclusion of different forms of identifying information is given. The paper then illustrates these ideas by modelling the determination of the black market exchange rate in Poland over the period from the mid 1970s to the early 1990s.     

THE INTERPLAY OF THE STATE AND THE FIRMS: OVERSEAS LISTING AS A GOVERNANCE INSTITUTION FOR CHINESE SOES

There are both considerable horizontal and vertical governance problems with the Chinese state-owned-enterprises (SOEs), which mean the firm operators are basically unaccountable. Due to the SOEs’ privileged positions in the Chinese political economy, almost all kinds of traditional institutions of corporate governance are far from perfect. Thus the value of overseas listing as a governance mechanism is highlighted, and that could be well revealed by a deeper analysis of the cost-and-benefit balance done by the government, which controls the SOEs and makes the real decision of overseas listing. Such a listing would bring a variety of economic benefits to SOEs, but the major driver for the action is the government’s wishes to employ an effective mechanism to restructure and discipline the old SOEs, solve the problems such as manager slack and still keep things under control. A change of the main overseas listing place from New York to Hong Kong after the shock of a class action further testifies such considerations from the state. But interestingly, during this process, bound by the external rules, the powerful state itself has gradually been driven in a more market-oriented and rule-abiding direction. This implies the complexity of the interplay of the state and the firm and reflects a typical market-oriented reform and an institutional evolution story of China in the past decades.     

我国知识产权制度建设成效及问题实证分析——兼论我国知识产权对外交往策略

我国现代知识产权制度建设始于改革开放初期,经过30余年发展,已成为现代社会一种重要的无形财产权制度.统计数据和计量经济分析表明,我国的专利、商标和著作权制度已走上正轨,发挥着正当的制度功能,但其中存在的问题,如知识产权法实施难仍需得到正视和理性解决.对知识产权制度成效的客观评价是中国知识产权对外交往策略的基础.应保持必要的自信心,不妄自菲薄,积极采取主动与防御结合的策略,以免在知识产权对外交往中进退失据,陷于被动.尊重知识产权制度的内在逻辑,防止冒进,拒绝外部干扰,将有助于知识产权制度理性发展.     

恢复性司法理念下社区矫正相关问题研究

2011年2月25日,十一届全国人大常委会第十九次会议审议通过了刑法修正案﹙八﹚,其中明确规定对判处管制、缓刑及裁定假释的罪犯依法进行社区矫正。由于我国的社区矫正起步较晚,经验不足,在实践中仍然会面临诸多问题。恢复性司法理念作为当今世界流行的司法观念对理顺我国社区矫正中刑法、刑事诉讼法与社区矫正相关规定之间的关系,解决社区矫正机构及人员配备上存在的不足以及对社区服刑人员进行监督管理等方面都具有十分重要的意义。     

Aggregation,ratio variables,and measurement problems in criminological research

Issues of measurement error, level of aggregation, and ratio variables have been considered serious problems in criminological research. Although there have been many recent discussions of these issues in sociology and criminology, studies designed to assess the impact of these problems on the results of empirical research have, for the most part, been absent. After reviewing what is known theoretically and conceptually about these issues, an investigation which compares empirical analyses of a particular type of crime, homicide, that use different measurement strategies, different levels of aggregation, and ratio versus nonratio variables is presented. Utilizing homicide data from the mid-1970s and selected independent variables, the results of this investigation indicate that these three problems can interact in an empirical setting such that potential solutions to these problems do not always apply in the manner suggested in previous studies. The results also indicate that there is great risk in ignoring one or more of these problems in empirical research, in that different substantive conclusions can be reached from analyses that ignore these issues compared with analyses that deal directly with them.     

Competitive analysis using a flexible demand specification

Econometric methods can be helpful when one is trying to understandthe nature of competition between products in differentiatedproducts industries, an issue that arises in many competitionpolicy contexts. However, misspecification of the consumer demandsystem can result in biased econometric results and misleadingconclusions. We discuss some considerations that go into choosinga demand system specification and suggest that a ‘flexiblefunctional form’ be used. This approach avoids placingrestrictions on the demand elasticities. We identify and discussother issues that arise in the estimation of demand systems.We conclude with an empirical example concerning the calculationof lost profits damages in a patent infringement case. Thisexample demonstrates how using a flexible functional form leadsto a substantially more reliable damages calculation than usingthe particular restrictive functional form that is commonlyused to calculate lost profits damages in patent litigation.     

A formulation of the aggregation problem in terms of coalition and bargaining theory

The object of this paper is to demonstrate in economic terms the equivalence of the problem of aggregation in input-output analysis with coalition and bargaining problems. Depending on the specific norm for aggregation it is shown that the aggregation criterion and the coalition forming criterion in an n-person game leads to a broadly similar situation in the market sense given that the market operates to that criterion. It is also shown that a mathematical analogue to this formulation may be obtained via the techniques of geometric programming.     

Plan Evasion and Supply Instability in a Double-Track System

In the reforms of centrally planned economies (CPEs), variants of thedouble-track system as a transitional measure. While there have been somestudies of the system from the demand side, little effort has been spentby economists to analyze its consequences from the t supply side. Thispaper is an attempt to do so in a disequilibrium framework. We show thatgiven a particular form of plan evasion, it is possible for the plannedprice to affect output, a result which contrasts with that of a generalequilibrium model (Sicular, 1988). Moreover, quantum changes in supplycould take place, generating instability in the system. The model isextended into a two-product case, where we illustrate that supplyinstability may still take place. Some alleviating factors that reducefluctuations are then discussed.     

Regional Technological Differences: The Case of Southern European Union

This paper examines the spatial spillover effects and the productivity rate of patents in southern European Union. It provides a systematic analysis of the relationship between productivity of patents and the factors that generate economically useful new technological knowledge. An applied spatial econometric framework is employed since this approach is particularly useful in the study of the spatial patterns of patents productivity, at the lowest possible levels of spatial aggregation.     

A Nonlinear Least Squares Approach to Time of Death Estimation Via Body Cooling

The problem of time of death (TOD) estimation by body cooling is revisited by proposing a nonlinear least squares approach that takes as input a series of temperature readings only. Using a reformulation of the Marshall–Hoare double exponential formula and a technique for reducing the dimension of the state space, an error function that depends on the two cooling rates is constructed, with the aim of minimizing this function. Standard nonlinear optimization methods that are used to minimize the bivariate error function require an initial guess for these unknown rates. Hence, a systematic procedure based on the given temperature data is also proposed to determine an initial estimate for the rates. Then, an explicit formula for the TOD is given. Results of numerical simulations using both theoretical and experimental data are presented, both yielding reasonable estimates. The proposed procedure does not require knowledge of the temperature at death nor the body mass. In fact, the method allows the estimation of the temperature at death once the cooling rates and the TOD have been calculated. The procedure requires at least three temperature readings, although more measured readings could improve the estimates. With the aid of computerized recording and thermocouple detectors, temperature readings spaced 10–15 min apart, for example, can be taken. The formulas can be straightforwardly programmed and installed on a hand‐held device for field use.     

Body height estimation based on dimensions of sacral and coccygeal vertebrae

This study is to evaluate whether it is possible to predict living stature from sacral and coccygeal vertebral dimensions. Individual vertebral body heights, sacral height (SH), and sacrococcygeal height (SCH) were recorded from the magnetic resonance images of 42 adult males. Sum of the heights of five sacral vertebrae (sigmaS), the first four coccygeal vertebrae (sigmaC), and the total height of the sacral and the first four coccygeal vertebrae together (sigmaSC) were also recorded. Linear regression equations for stature estimation were produced using the above mentioned variables. The regression equations were constructed and tested by using jack-knife procedure. Statistical analyses indicated that the combined variables (SH, SCH, sigmaS, sigmaC, sigmaSC) were more accurate predictors of stature than the heights of individual vertebrae. The results of the study pointed out that the equations derived from sacrococcygeal dimensions perform somewhat better than ones based on foot and head variables, but worse than those based on long-bone length. As a conclusion, the dimensions of sacral and coccygeal vertebrae could be used for stature estimation when long bones are not available.