Congressional Partisanship and Presidential Success: The Case of the Clinton and Bush Presidencies

Recent scholarship has documented the increased cohesion and influence of the congressional parties. In this new context, the status of the government as either unified or divided should function as an independent variable in determining presidential success rates. Occurring in just such a period, the Bush and Clinton presidencies can be used to test whether presidential success rates vary according to whether the national government is unified or divided. All the relevant data and comparisons confirm the hypothesis. In addition, a comparison of the presidential success rates for Carter and Nixon's first four years indicate that in the preceding period of less cohesive congressional parties there was a much weaker relationship between presidential success and the status of government as either unified or divided.     

Federal Deficits, Debt and Interest Costs

Current federal government deficits are of a size unprecedented since World War II. While budget surpluses have been infrequent, deficits before 1982 were small enough that the federal debt shrunk in relation to the size of the economy. Now, however, the federal deficit is stuck at about 5 percent of gross national product, and the ratio of federal debt to gross national product (GNP) is growing rapidly. These large deficits are driving up interest rates, hurting American exports, turning the United States into a debtor nation, and causing government interest outlays to spiral. The possibilities are limited for lowering interest costs through directly reducing interest rates or introducing new Treasury debt management strategies. The only way to cage the interest monster is to enact a substantial package of tax increases and cuts in noninterest spending. We list some possible elements of such a package and show how they might be combined to tame the growth of debt.     

历史视野中的美国经济"双赤字"问题

多年来,美国经济发展中的一个重要特征是存在着高额的财政赤字和经常项目赤字.双高赤字起自上世纪80年代里根政府时期,可以说是"里根经济学"为取得成功所付出的代价.90年代的克林顿政府所采取的削减联邦财政赤字为主要内容的宏观经济政策获得了成功,而美国经济的持续繁荣则继续导致了美国贸易赤字的增长.小布什政府上台次年重新出现财政赤字,其后双赤字不断攀升,创下了历史最高记录.布什政府推行的减税计划造成政府税收下降和9.11事件以后美国政府开支的大幅度增加是联邦财政重现赤字的主要原因;美国贸易赤字居高难下并不断增加,从根本上说则是美国经济中消费和支出远远大于其产出的结果.双赤字对美国经济有利有弊,但归根到底弊大于利,同时也给世界经济增长蒙上了阴影,带来了诸多不确定因素.美国的双高赤字形势虽然可能会有所改观,但作为一种总体的状况恐会长期存在下去.     

How the Clinton Administration Can Make Foreign Aid Work

The changes taking place in the world today are exposing the inadequacies of the U.S. foreign assistance program. Beyond external changes such as the fall of communism, internal changes have occurred in the policy decisions and purposes governing the program, management and operations of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), level of public attention on scandal, and aggressiveness of congressional oversight. After describing the purposes of the foreign assistance program, this article assesses the evolving role of the agencies involved in foreign assistance planning, budgeting and implementation processes; the processes themselves; the changes affecting the program; and the decision-making structure. Three reforms are needed to make the U.S. foreign aid program more responsive to U.S. foreign policy interests and more effective in accomplishing its development mandate. First, a strong policy focus is needed to direct the program toward realistic objectives and the best mechanisms for achieving those objectives. Second, the foreign aid program must move away from implementing projects with limited objectives and toward programs that promote broad-based economic growth, pluralism and democracy. Finally, AID should be merged into the State Department, and its field structure reorganized and reduced to better integrate development and foreign policy considerations.     

Fiscal Policy,Deficits and Politics of Subnational Governments: The Case of the German Laender

The first part of the paper briefly describesinstitutional aspects of the German federal system andexamines the economic and fiscal performance of theGerman Laender since 1970. Taking into account theinstitutional settings, especially the fact that theGerman Laender cannot set tax rates individually, wedevelop a highly stylized model of subnationalgovernments that do not have access to the tax rateinstrument and thus have to use expenditures as apolicy variable. The model implies an expendituresmoothing policy of subnational governments andcomplements the famous tax smoothing model. Theempirical section examines whether governments ofvarious ideology show significant differences infiscal stabilization policy. Our results indicatethat regional differences in public debt accumulationand public expenditure policy in general is largelydetermined by interregional differences in economicperformance, whereas we do not find any significantimpact on the ideological composition of the Laendergovernments.     

The Political Economy of Fiscal Policy: An Experimental Study on the Strategic Use of Deficits

Field data on the strategic use of deficits to limit thebudgetary scope of future governments are inconclusive aboutthe effects of political polarization or a government'sre-election probability on fiscal policy. Therefore, wedesigned a controlled experiment to examine the strategic useof deficits. Using a within-subjects design, we find thatdeficits rise with a higher degree of polarization and a lowerreelection probability. However, in a between-subjects designneither polarization nor reelection probabilities have asystematic effect. We discuss the implications of ourexperimental results for empirical tests of the strategic useof deficits with field data.     

The Influence of Jurisdiction Size and Sale Type on Municipal Bond Interest Rates: An Empirical Analysis

The authors use data on municipal bond sales in Oregon from 1994 to 1997 to explore whether population (as a proxy for financial-management capacity) and sale type (competitive or negotiated sale) influence interest rates. They find that smaller jurisdictions pay an interest cost penalty in the municipal bond market, and that competitive sales result in significantly lower interest rates compared to negotiated sales. The authors suggest that measures to enhance the financial-management capacity of small governments are warranted and that state laws requiring justification for negotiated sales are appropriate.     

行政管理专业案例教学的困境与突破

案例教学符合加强实践教学、实施素质教育的指导思想,符合行政管理专业由学术型向应用型转变的发展趋势,对于激发学生学习的积极性和自主性、培养学生的认知能力和实践能力具有重要作用。但在教学实践中,认识上的误区和本土案例的匮乏成为行政管理专业案例教学的两大制约因素,全面认识案例教学的性质与特点、强化本土案例的搜集和编写是突破困境的必然选择。     

The National Interest and the Politics of Threat Exaggeration: The Blair Government's Case for War against Iraq

During the 2005 General Election the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown, suggested that the invasion of Iraq was in 'the national interest'. Whether he knew it or not, this phrase has often referred to controversial decisions taken by governments, away from scrutiny and subject to criticism when made public, but which they believe are in the best interests of the British state.
The article summarises the consequences of the invasion in terms of the subsequent criticism and official inquiries before addressing the question of what is the national interest. The article then considers what exactly was the threat, and whether or not it was exaggerated, and what evidence is now emerging to indicate that the decision to invade was taken 'in the national interest'. It concludes that there was a decision to support the USA and that the threat was exaggerated to justify this decision.     

How to Succeed in Reorganizing: The Case of the Norwegian Health Administration*

There has been a growing concern about administrative reform in many countries during the last 10–20 years. The central administrative apparatus has been restructured, partly as an instrument to fulfill collective, political goals. This study of the reorganization of the central health administration in N orway shows that political and administrative leaders increase their control through a planned reorganization. But such a comprehensive reform also creates problems in adjusting to new administrative roles.     

The Political Economy of Transition in Post-Socialist Systems: The Case of the Baltic States

The nature of the failed socialist systems calls for a transition which is as comprehensive in its objectives as were the systems themselves before they failed. Hence, the transition to democracy in the post-socialist systems cannot be treated as separate from the transition to a market economy and national independence. The critical part of the transition is the economic reforms inasmuch as the institutions of the planned economy are the major power base for the conservative elites. To be successful, the economic transition must be able - in both the short and the long term - to command political support, to achieve social acceptance of the distributional consequences involved and to be compatible with democratic institutions. Analysis reveals that in the case of the Baltic states widespread support for the transition to a market economy can be detected and that the democratically elected governments have so far been fairly active in establishing a legal framework for transition, but appear unable to implement the necessary stabilization policy. The reforms have produced strong social protests, and the governments have been under pressure to maintain social guarantees during the period of transition. The non-Baltic minorities in particular defend previous social privileges and are distressed by their uncertain status after independence. The ultimate outcome of political and economic transition in the Baltic states, therefore, remains in doubt.     

Public Administration in a Conflict Situation: The Case of Northern Ireland

This article examines recent developments in the public administrative system in Northern Ireland. The conflict in Northern Ireland has received widespread publicity, Yet government in the region continues. Public services are delivered. The article considers how the public administrative system has played its part in the management by the British government of the conflict. There are many other situations where there is political violence. The Northern Ireland case may offer insights to public administrators and policymakers in managing such situations.     

The Importance of Trust in Government for Public Administration: The Case of Zoning

Many scholars argue that citizens with higher levels of political trust are more likely to grant bureaucratic discretion to public administrators than citizens with lower levels of trust. Trust, therefore, can relieve the tension between managerial flexibility and political accountability in the modern administrative state. Unfortunately, there is little empirical evidence showing that trust is actually associated with citizens' willingness to cede policy-making power to government. This article tests theories about political trust and citizen competence using the case of zoning. Trust in local government is found to be an important predictor of support for zoning, but trust in state government and trust in national government have no effect. These findings suggest that trust affects policy choice and helps determine how much power citizens grant to local administrators.