拉美民主的现状与未来——从权力结构的视角看拉美民主

拉美民主向何处去?对于这个问题,学术界有迥然不同的回答。从拉美民主的现状来看,政治文化中非民主的成分仍然很大,公民社会发育不健全,公共机构腐败严重、运转不灵,选举缺乏实质意义,政党丧失社会信任,政策导向具有严重的倾向性,国际环境的影响也很不确定,权力高度集中于新兴的经济精英手中,权力结构出现严重失衡。在这种情况下,拉美社会不平等的程度会进一步加深。在宏观经济形势较好时,拉美的民主尚可保持稳定。一旦经济形势逆转,拉美的民主体制便岌岌可危。     

Democracy in Latin America: Problems and prospects

This essay examines, by way of a series of brief country sketches, the current state of democratization in Latin America. It argues that in the formal sense progress has been significant but that only in a handful of countries has the economic development which democracy requires taken place. Many serious impediments (corruption, party weaknesses, public alienation, and poor policy implementation among them) remain. It will be decades before a definitive judgement can be reached.     

对拉美民主的解析--读《拉丁美洲的民主:公民民主的未来》

20多年前拉美民主化进程启动时,拉美精英阶层、普通民众以及国际社会都对拉美民主化发展充满期待。然而,进入新千年以来,拉美民主化进程正面临着前所未有的危机,拉美国家已有多位总统迫于民众压力提前卸任;一些国家的选举投票率下降,民众示威抗议等活动时有发生。2004年4月,联合国开发计划署发表了由专家学者完成的关于拉美18国民主现状的报告《拉丁美洲的民主:公民民主的未来》(UNDP,DemocracyinLatinAmerica:TowardsaCitizens’Democracy,Argentina,2004)。这份理论与事实并重的报告对拉美民主问题进行了独到的解析,为深入了解拉美民…     

Trends and Constraints of Partial Democracy in Latin America

This article analyses the mixed forms and results of the institutionalisation of partial democracy in conjunction with free market policies in the last two decades in Latin America. It assesses trends and constrains in domains with important implications for the quality of democracy in the region, by asking the following questions: Is there an unequivocally new political and administrative culture or are older cultures proving to be resilient? Are the new means of delivering what have hitherto been regarded as public goods facilitating democracy, or hindering it? And are new constitutional arrangements and their legal corollaries and consequences facilitating participation and the formation of democratic public spheres? Posing these questions and looking for answers in the actual processes of democratisation and the introduction of free-market policies, moves analysis from the realm of models of democracy to the realm of democratic practice and highlights the ensuing tensions with the models of democracy adopted and shared with the core countries of the developed West. This research was supported by a generous grant from the US-Israel Binational Science Foundation (1999-2002), which is gratefully acknowledged. The authors would like to thank the participants of the workshop on 'Limits of politics, market crises and social disintegration' (Centre for Latin American Studies, Cambridge University, 29-30 November 2002), as well as the editorial board of Cambridge Review of International Affairs and the anonymous readers, for their criticisms and constructive remarks.     

Party systems in Latin America: institutionalization,decay, and collapse,edited by Scott Mainwaring

Although coming of age under a totalitarian regime drastically reduces the chances of acquiring democratic values or supporting democracy, factors other than the formal nature of the political regime shape political values as well. The informal structure of the political regime, which consists of rules developed in political practice and economic and human development, may shape individual values and attitudes and produce different attitudes towards democracy in different totalitarian regimes. This article focuses on the effect of early socialization on the support for democracy among citizens who have been ruled under two different non-democratic regimes. We compare the dynamics in Spain and Romania during the post-totalitarian period with the aim of identifying how coming of age operated in these two different totalitarian regimes and how each type of non-democratic regime affected the legitimacy of the new democratic rule. Using survey data from various sources (Standard Eurobarometer, Central and Eastern Eurobarometer and Candidate Countries Eurobarometer) that allow both longitudinal and cross-sectional comparisons, we decompose the social change in support for democracy over the post-totalitarian period in both countries using cross-classified fixed effects models. The analyses demonstrate the different effects of socialization on support for democracy in these two different totalitarian contexts.     

Nationalism and its discontents

The New Conservatism: Cultural Criticism and the Historians’ Debate by Jürgen Habermas; edited and translated by Shierry Weber Nicholsen; introduced by Richard Wolin. Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press, 1989; Cambridge, UK: Polity Press, .1994, Pp.270. £39.50 (hardback); £13.50 (paperback). ISBN 0 7456 067 92 and 1411 6     

太平洋联盟的建立、发展及其地缘政治影响

由秘鲁总统阿兰·加西亚倡议成立的太平洋联盟自2011年4月开始组建后快速发展。太平洋联盟的建立和快速发展是本地区一体化分化和重组的结果,也表达了这些国家对巴西主导的南美一体化发展的不满,希望拉美一体化重回经济,特别是自由贸易的轨道,同时也有太平洋联盟国家自身战略及政治上的考量。此外,亚太地区地缘政治的变化也是重要因素之一。太平洋联盟是目前拉美最具影响力和经济开放的一体化组织,随着合作的快速推进及新成员国的加入,其实力、地位还将进一步壮大和提升。太平洋联盟的成立将对南方共同市场、拉美和西半球一体化格局产生重要影响。     

Democracy and state bias in Latin America: Some lessons from Mexico,Peru and Venezuela

This discussion considers why democracy has not so far led to the creation of impartial, honest and effective state institutions in Mexico, Venezuela and Peru. The explanation offered is essentially historical‐institutional. Non‐impartial (that is, biased) types of governance have a tendency to reproduce themselves over time due to the advantages that they offer to the powerful. However this observation, while true, does not explain why democracy has not done more to bring about the rule of law. The research focuses on Mexico, Peru and Venezuela because these are all cases in which democracy has failed spectacularly to discipline political competition within a framework of law. The Mexico's ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party maintains significant popular support despite conclusive evidence of previous ballot rigging, and continuing evidence of large‐scale corruption. Peru's Fujimori was re‐elected as president in 1995 despite previously using force to close the national Congress. Venezuela's Chavez convincingly won presidential elections in 1998, only six years after leading a coup attempt against an elected government.     

The United States and the Promotion of Democracy in Latin America: Then, Now and Tomorrow

The United States has been deeply involved in Latin American affairs for over a century, but promoting democracy has only recently become a priority. The end of the Cold War presented a unique opportunity to provide greater support for democracy in the Western Hemisphere. This article examines the main multilateral and bilateral actions undertaken by the United States to promote democracy in Latin America in recent decades. It makes use of a newly available dataset that specifies the investment made on democracy in different countries and sectors between 1990 and 2005. It also addresses the challenges that the United States confronts in promoting democracy in the region at the current time and the possible scenarios for the near future.     

2004年的拉丁美洲形势

2004年是拉丁美洲出现近30年来少有的新景观、新现象、新机制的一年。经济上,恢复势头强劲,出现历史上罕见的中高速增长;政治上,整个地区局势保持平稳,只偶有个别国家掀起波澜;社会上,躁动状况趋于和缓,但不安宁因素依然存在;外交上,南美共同体诞生,全方位外交亮点闪烁。一、经济形势令人欣喜继2002年拉美经济严重衰退、2003年开始恢复增长后,2004年拉美经济出现近30年来少有的喜人景象。这是伴随世界经济恢复增长步伐加快,尤其是在美国经济和中国经济两个“助推轮”的强劲推动下出现的。(一)经济增长创近七年之新高。2004年拉美经济形势一…     

拉美反美主义探析

拉美反美主义由来已久,无论是其持续时间还是影响范围,在世界反美主义浪潮中都值得关注.拉美反美主义长期存在的主要根源是美国长期以来在拉美实行一系列霸权主义政策.只要美国不放弃对拉美的霸权主义政策,拉美反美主义就会持续存在,并可能出现新的高潮.     

新自由主义与拉丁美洲

最近 30年间 ,新自由主义一直主导着拉美国家的经济改革 ,拉丁美洲成了新自由主义的“实验场”。是新自由主义者对拉丁美洲格外青睐 ,还是拉美人对新自由主义情有独钟 ?总之 ,新自由主义为什么能在拉美大行其道 ,是一个值得探讨的问题。大凡一种思想或意识形态能在某个地区流行 ,都不会是某种偶然现象 ,而必然有其特定的历史背景和条件。拉丁美洲之所以从 70年代以来成为新自由主义的“实验场”,是多种内外因素互动的结果。(一 )进口替代工业化模式的衰落为新自由主义进入拉美提供了历史机遇2 0世纪 30年代的资本主义大萧条沉重打击了拉美国…     

中拉关系与重视拉美无形资源的开发

人文交流是中拉关系的基础。在发展中拉关系的过程中,我们不仅应该重视拉美的资源和市场,更应该重视对拉美现代化经验的总结。中国和拉美国家都是发展中国家,都处在现代化的进程之中。而拉美国家是在第三世界中最早获得独立的国家,也是最早开始探索现代化道路的国家。拉美国家所经历的现代化道路曲折艰难,积累了丰富的经验教训,这是一笔宝贵的无形资源,有待于我们的开发和利用。     

拉美国家的腐败与可治理性问题

腐败是影响实现可治理性目标的一个核心的问题,对于一个国家政治制度的合法性、民主政治的发展、民众对政府的信任和参与政治的热情、社会公正乃至社会伦理道德的清明都会产生极为严重的损害。拉美地区腐败现象比较严重,造成民众对各类正式制度产生不信任,从而使政府和政治体制的合法性面临威胁,导致可治理性问题和可治理性危机。拉美地区的反腐斗争在一段时期内取得了一定成绩,除少数国家外,腐败恶性发展和持续蔓延的势头有所遏制,但腐败并没有得到有效控制,尤其是腐败程度没有发生根本性改观,拉美的反腐败斗争还面临着严峻的挑战。     

拉美国家的腐败问题与反腐败斗争评析

制度性腐败、腐败的跨国化趋势和选举腐败突出,成为20世纪90年代中期以来拉美地区腐败问题的新特点。严重的腐败问题对政府治理和民主制度造成极大的破坏。在这种背景下,拉美各国政府一方面加大了惩处腐败的力度,另一方面将反腐败重点转向完善法律和制度建设,试图通过建构本国的廉政体系,将预防、监督和惩处结合起来,推动反腐败斗争的深入发展。然而,在继续加强和完善制度建设方面,拉美国家还有很长的路要走。在腐败问题非常严重的拉美地区,治理腐败将需要一两代人的持续奋斗。     

浅析拉美客户工业及其对就业的影响

20世纪70年代以来,墨西哥和一些中美洲国家通过客户工业的制成品出口迅速提升了国际贸易地位。历经40多年的发展,墨西哥的客户工业逐渐从劳动密集型产业向知识密集型产业转型。在这一过程中,它对墨西哥的出口和就业作出了重要贡献。但客户工业就业也受到美国经济周期、激烈的外部竞争、客户工业与国内经济二元分割和人力资本投资不平衡等不利因素的严重影响。客户工业以前仅被当作就业政策的一部分,后被视为国家创汇的机器,将来应把其纳入国家的经济发展战略。     

拉美的“过度不平等”及其对中产阶级的影响

最高收入阶层同其他收入阶层之间的"过度不平等"是拉美收入分配结构的典型特征。这也正是长期以来拉美中产阶级难以发展壮大的关键因素。本文首先分析了收入不平等和中产阶级之间的关系,接着从再分配政策、税收政策、公共支出政策,以及教育政策等视角重点考察了1980～2002年拉美国家收入"过度不平等"的政策性根源。基于上述分析,中产阶级的成长诚然要靠个人的力争上游,但同时更需要国家政策的扶持、保护和培育。新兴市场国家尤其要重视通过社会政策降低收入不平等、增强社会流动性和扩大中产阶级,以建立橄榄型的现代社会结构。     

拉美公共养老保险私有化改革比较

从1981年的智利开始到20世纪末,拉美的10个国家全部或者部分地进行了公共养老保险金的私有化改革。在人口结构、经济发展等因素的影响下,私有化成了世界范围内的养老金改革趋向。一些经验表明,私有化对经济有积极的影响,能促进金融结构的调整和资本市场的发展,增加国民储蓄率和经济增长速度。同时私有化也造成了一些问题,如对妇女和低收入者的不平等。     

对拉美国家社会冲突的初步分析

拉美国家的社会冲突是社会矛盾不断积累所导致的社会局势失控、社会动荡以及民众和某些社会阶层对国家体制有组织的反抗。有许多因素可以引起社会冲突,但最根本的社会冲突是由社会不平等、由各社会阶层和集团之间的利益冲突引起的。传统财产占有制度孕育了拉美国家早期的社会冲突,城市化和社会转型、现代化进程中经济与社会发展失衡,进一步加剧了社会矛盾和社会冲突,而社会政策的体制设计缺陷削弱了其缓和社会矛盾的能力。拉美国家的社会冲突有潜在的和间接的,也有公开和直接的。20世纪以后拉美国家的社会冲突出现过4次高潮。社会冲突损害了拉美国家的总体形象和投资环境,危及民主政治的发展,动摇了民众对经济改革的信心,损害了国家的竞争力基础。