Counterterrorism in an Era of Great Power Politics

How should the United States recalibrate its counterterrorism policy for an era of great power competition? With the end of unipolarity, the United States cannot fight terrorists and compete with Russia and China with equal energy, but must instead make hard choices about its priorities and resources. Among those hard choices are what to do with the web of counterterrorism partnerships with other governments that have formed in the post- 9/11 era. This article proposes three broad principles—linkages, license, and legitimacy—that the United States can use to evaluate its policy and these partnerships, with the aim of recasting U.S. counterterrorism policy for an era of great power competition.     

Neville Chamberlain and Strategic Relations with the US During his Chancellorship

The standard appreciation of Neville Chamberlain's attitude towards the United States and its relationship to Britain's strategic position in the interwar most often begins its analysis with his becoming Prime Minister in 1937. Those works make it appear as if the man never considered what the strategic worth of the United States was until that moment. This article argues that to do so misses the vital influences and the legacy of Chamberlain's important formative years as Chancellor of the Exchequer. It was in that role, and in particular during the confrontational era of negotiations concerning war debts in the period between 1932 and 1934, that his perceptions of the worth of the United States were influenced greatly. This article hopes to redirect future studies of Chamberlain's strategic thinking toward the idea of looking at the formulation of that strategic thinking in a more comprehensive fashion.     

Working with the European Union

The past year saw growing uncertainty about the future of the European Union. Whether it becomes weaker or stronger, and whether it acts as a global partner or competitor, the United States cannot afford to ignore the eu. By understanding the different eu decision-making processes for defense, foreign policy, counterterrorism, and economic issues, the United States can do a better job of advancing its interests in Europe.     

Defining Mediator Knowledge and Skills

A two-year collaboration among researchers, practitioners, and advisers from the major national organizations of mediators produced a job analysis relevant to mediators involved in interpersonal disputes (i.e., divorce, community, formal parent-child mediation, etc.). One byproduct of the job analysis is an extensive list of the knowledge areas and skills important to effective job performance. This essay defines the knowledge and skill areas that emerged from the analysis.     

Sixty years of Sino-Afghan relations

Afghanistan and the People's Republic of China (PRC) established diplomatic relations in 1955. Since that time, the changing relationship of China with Afghanistan has mirrored those of the PRC with other nation states. What began as an attempt by the PRC to establish international legitimacy for its new government and to offer third-world nations a socialist-communist path other than following the Soviet Union turned into a quest for natural resources. Using a variety of primary sources, including recently declassified intelligence files, secondary sources and open source material, this article traces the development of this changing relationship, demonstrating how it has complemented or complicated the United States' relationship with Afghanistan. It also shows how changing world events have affected the Chinese perception of the role Afghanistan can play in its foreign policy. The article concludes with a presentation of what role China is playing and can play in Afghanistan today, ending with a discussion of the dangers that the PRC faces in its current relations with Afghanistan, especially with regard to its ever-changing relationship with the United States.     

Imperial Allies

The United States has had, and will continue to have, a difficult time gathering allies because of the supremacy it enjoys. States support the United States not because they share a common objective, but because they want to benefit politically, economically, and strategically from being associated with Washington. In other words, the United States has allies not because of the objective it tries to achieve but because of what it can offer to them. Such alliances are fickle and last only as long as the benefits allies derive from Washington outweigh the costs. For the United States, managing this situation requires three skills: first, the continued ability to offer benefits to potential allies; second, diplomatic dexterity to manage mostly bilateral alliances; and third, the strategic flexibility required in order to be able to change swiftly from one ally to another.     

China's Naval Rise and the South China Sea: An Operational Assessment

Over the last fifteen years, the steady rise of China's naval capabilities has received a level of attention unmatched since the Soviet navy's expansion following the Cuban Missile Crisis. Yet much of that attention has focused on what that rise has meant for Taiwan's security or a possible contest with the United States.¹ But Beijing's seaward territorial concerns also reach far into the South China Sea. And it is there that the military balance has most swiftly swung in China's favor as a result of its modernization program. This article will examine not only how the military balance has shifted, but also what Southeast Asian countries, particularly Vietnam and the Philippines, could do to best preserve their territorial interests in response to that shift.     

菲律宾:2008～2009年回顾与展望

2008年的菲律宾社会,总体来说比较稳定,但也有一些不安定的因素:年初出现了示威游行活动,但没有从根本上动摇现政府的统治;年中出现了感染病和暴风,先后有近1000人丧生.外交上,在继续搞好与美国、日本、中国等大国的关系的基础上更加倒向美国;处理好与周边国家尤其是东盟各国的关系.经济上,由于受到经济危机的影响,增长率在2007年的历史高峰之后迅速下滑,但在政府的强有力措施和国际力量的支持下克服了经济危机的影响,仍然实现了4.6%的经济增长率.     

Nuclear Abolition: A Dangerous Illusion

A rising and influential tide of opinion is pressing for the United States to take major steps towards actually realizing “a world without nuclear weapons,” including by taking steps towards dismantling its nuclear arsenal. This article argues that a world without nuclear weapons, and particularly American nuclear weapons, is not desirable nor is real and effective nuclear disarmament possible. Therefore, while non-proliferation is an important objective, the United States should not abandon or move substantially towards the abandonment of its arsenal in pursuit of nuclear abolition. Instead, the United States should seek the worthy goal of preventing and retarding the spread of nuclear weapons while maintaining a strong nuclear deterrent, a policy that can be followed by de-linking non-proliferation from disarmament.     

The Limits of Populist Diplomacy: Fidel Castro's April 1959 Trip to North America

This article asks what lessons about diplomacy can be drawn from Fidel Castro's April 1959 trip to the United States and Canada, a trip long neglected by historians as an aberration in US-Cuban relations because of its apparent public relations success. The trip's meaning, rather, lies in the populist style Castro practiced to circumvent normal protocol, and more importantly in the failure of that populism to sway not only US foreign policy makers but also the US public. Based on comprehensive media and archival research and of interviews in Cuba and the United States, this is the first ever article-length treatment of this diplomatic visit. It helps to understand not only the US-Cuba divide that soon followed Castro's trip but also the limited potential of a populist diplomacy.     

The American Role in European Defense Reform

In order to influence the direction and outcomes of defense reforms occurring across Europe, the United States needs to refocus its military-to-military engagement programs with its European allies. Instead of seeking to build partner capacity among the newest NATO members or aspirants, Washington will be better served by maintaining and strengthening interoperability with those allies that are adaptive and innovative, deployable and expeditionary, and capable of full spectrum operations—that is, allies such as France, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. This finding is based upon what Washington itself sees as the future of conflict and the kinds of coalition partner skills and abilities the United States will need to counter post-International Security Assistance Force International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) threats to U.S. and collective security. Given budget and force structure cuts facing the United States as well, the American military cannot afford to waste its limited security cooperation resources.     

Confronting Islamist Insurgencies in Africa: The Case of the Islamic State in Mozambique

The proliferation of Salafi-jihadi insurgencies across Africa challenges the United States’ counterterrorism approach. From its inception, the insurgency in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique was driven by local and foreign dynamics, which have been complicated by additional external intervention in the conflict. Using the Cabo Delgado insurgency, we demonstrate how efforts to address its global dimensions, such as the group's affiliation with the Islamic State, can work against attempts to mitigate its local drivers. We conclude with recommendations for a more effective U.S. response that takes both the local and global dynamics into account. This article builds on our February 2021 report “Combating the Islamic State's Spread in Africa: Assessment and Recommendations for Mozambique,” published by the American Enterprise Institute.     

The “Japan Card” in the United States Rapprochement with China, 1969–1972

United States rapprochement with China should be re-examined by taking into consideration the American negotiating approach towards Beijing regarding the role of Japan, the United States' major Asian ally and China's long-term rival in East Asia. Whilst announcing the Nixon Doctrine, which increased pressure on Japan to strengthen its defense and regional responsibilities, Nixon and Kissinger used the so-called “Japan Card,” Japan's possible military resurgence and China's long-term fear of it, as a tacit negotiating tool to justify to Chinese leaders the continued United States military presence in East Asia. This article examines the impact of the United States rapprochement with China on the American negotiating process with Chinese leaders for the continuation of the United States–Japan Security Treaty and to what extent it changed China's policy toward American relations with Japan.     

The Limits of Populist Diplomacy: Fidel Castro's April 1959 Trip to North America

This article asks what lessons about diplomacy can be drawn from Fidel Castro's April 1959 trip to the United States and Canada, a trip long neglected by historians as an aberration in US–Cuban relations because of its apparent public relations success. The trip's meaning, rather, lies in the populist style Castro practiced to circumvent normal protocol, and more importantly in the failure of that populism to sway not only US foreign policy makers but also the US public. Based on comprehensive media and archival research and of interviews in Cuba and the United States, this is the first ever article-length treatment of this diplomatic visit. It helps to understand not only the US–Cuba divide that soon followed Castro's trip but also the limited potential of a populist diplomacy.     

Blazing a trail while lazing around: knowledge processes and wood-fuel paradoxes?

Using autobiographical experience with reference to wood-fuel research in two locations in West Africa, this article illustrates how knowledge processes influence what can be produced as knowledge; how such knowledge is actually produced; and what is eventually produced as knowledge. However, although it explores the various roles that knowledge plays in the social relations at particular historical moments in the personal and professional development of a single individual, the questions that this subjective experience raises are of wider import: whose knowledge matters? How do certain knowledges get suppressed or denied, while others are privileged? In turn, this raises additional questions concerning the ways in which research and practice are mediated through local research, policy, and development prisms. In a general sense, the article is about the way in which wood-fuel philosophies, methodologies, and practices are constructed, modified, and maintained in existence as knowledge; and a reminder that such knowledge processes cannot truly be understood in isolation, but need to be situated within complex, diversified contexts of individual agendas, and group strategies, as well as in multiple sites of production.     

Taiwan and East Asian Security

This article offers an assessment of cross-Strait relations almost 30 months into the Ma Ying-jeou administration, and two years before Hu Jintao likely will begin to give up the titles that make him China's paramount leader. The article briefly describes the essential character of cross-Strait relations before President Ma came to office; reviews what has happened during his administration; clarifies what this process represents; examines what might happen in the future, and concludes with implications for other countries— particularly the United States.     

The Return to the Pressure Track: The Trump Administration and the Iran Nuclear Deal

During the 2016 United States presidential election campaign, Donald Trump promised to “renegotiate” the July 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, better known as the Iran nuclear deal. The deal does not prevent Iran from building nuclear weapons and in some ways actually makes it easier for Iran to go nuclear in the future. The mere continuation of the current deal could undermine America’s interests in the Middle East and its global non-proliferation policy. How then can the Donald Trump Administration work to renegotiate the deal? This analysis provides a strategy that the Trump Administration can follow to improve American policy toward Iran, namely do what Iran is doing to the United States: abide by the strict terms of the agreement, whilst competing in all of the ways not covered in the deal. From an American perspective, increasing pressure on Tehran will constrain Iran’s destabilising influence in the region. Over time, Washington can leverage the pressure to force Iran back to the table to strike a renegotiated agreement that eliminates, not just delays, the Iranian nuclear and missile threat.     

The Politics of U.S.–UN Reengagement: Achieving Gains in a Hostile Environment

From 1999 to 2001, the United States actively tried to improve its image and role in the United Nations (UN). This was a difficult process due to the many areas of disagreement between the United States and other UN members. However, throughout this period, the focus of reengagement was centered on resolving the large and longstanding U.S. arrears to the UN. While the United States was not able to achieve everything it desired, this period of reengagement resulted in new scales of assessment for the UN's regular and peacekeeping budgets that were much more favorable to the United States. This article draws on practitioner interviews to analyze the U.S. campaign to resolve its arrears, most specifically focusing on six factors that explain why the United States was able to achieve so much in the face of such an inhospitable environment at the UN. In doing so, the article identifies several areas where scholars and practitioners are highlighting similar dynamics, and it uncovers important policy implications for future U.S. efforts to push other UN members in directions that they may not be eager to go. These policy implications are especially relevant for current U.S.–UN relations given the U.S. failure to secure Security Council authorization for the use of force against Iraq in March 2003 .     

论南海问题中的美国因素

在影响南海问题的外部力量中,美国是最重要的第三方。冷战时期,美国对南海问题主要采取不介入和不表态的中立政策。冷战结束以来,美国开始关注和介入南海问题,并逐步采取具有明显倾向的政治和军事干预政策。美国的介入和干预加大了南海问题的复杂性和中国解决南海问题的难度。