State Unemployment Insurance Trust Solvency and Benefit Generosity

This paper employs panel estimators with data on the 50 American states for the years 1963 to 2006 to test the relationship between Unemployment Insurance (UI) trust fund solvency and UI benefit generosity. We find that both average and maximum weekly UI benefit amounts, as ratios to the average weekly wage, are higher in states and in years with more highly solvent trust funds. This result holds after controlling for state‐level unemployment rate, gross domestic product, population growth, legislative political ideology, partisan control of the executive and legislative branches, and gubernatorial election year across multiple specifications, including fixed‐effects and dynamic panel estimators. We propose a theory of moderate coupling as the causal mechanism, whereby UI program benefits and financing are directly related but are not as tightly linked as in other social insurance programs, such as Medicaid. The findings have important policy implications for the funding of states’ UI systems. As a consequence of moderate coupling, the countercyclicality of the UI program is dampened.     

Actuarial status of the Hospital Insurance and Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds

This article, adapted from a summary of the 1983 Annual Reports of the Medicare Boards of Trustees, presents the present and projected future actuarial status of the Hospital Insurance (HI) and Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI) Trust Funds following the enactment of the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982 and the Social Security Amendments of 1983. Although the Trustees characterize the outlook for the HI Trust Fund as slightly more optimistic than it was a year earlier, they report that the fund may be exhausted sometime between 1988 and 1996 unless benefits under the HI part of Medicare are reduced or financing is improved. The SMI Trust Fund, which is financed by premiums adjusted each year to reflect actual experience and by general revenue contributions, is characterized as actuarially sound. The Trustees note, however, the growing extent to which general revenue financing is becoming the major source of income for the SMI part of Medicare.     

Does Unemployment Insurance Displace Familial Assistance?

The objective of this study is to examine the extent to whichbenefits received from the Unemployment Insurance Programdisplace assistance that the unemployed receive from theirextended family. Using data from a supplement to the PanelStudy of Income Dynamics, it is found that the unemployedreceive private support and that these private networks arefairly pervasive; twenty-nine percent of those receivingUnemployment Insurance benefits also receive cash transfersfrom their family or friends. Moreover, it is found thatunemployment benefits displace familial support by as much as24–40 cents per dollar.     

公务员参加养老保险统一改革的思路——“混合型”统账结合制度下的测算

中国当前的机关事业单位基本养老保险制度对保障退休人员待遇、稳定机关事业单位职工队伍、促进经济社会文化各项事业全面发展发挥了重要作用,但还存在很多问题,如单位保险的性质未变、碎片化倾向严重、政企待遇差过大、财政负担沉重等.提出了中国机关事业单位养老保险制度改革的基本思路和原则,即从新入职的人员开始,逐步把机关事业单位工作人员纳入全国统一的基本养老保险制度,在此基础上建立职业年金,以避免其待遇下降.最后,测算了改革和不改革情况下机关事业单位养老金支出对财政负担的不同影响.测算结果发现,虽然改革初期会增加财政负担,但是到2061年开始将会大大降低财政负担.     

The implementation of complex social policy: Institutional layering and unintended consequences in the National Disability Insurance Scheme

In this article, we identify the unfolding unintended consequences which flow from one instance of policy layering in Australia's National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS). We show how use of a causal diagram, which highlights feedback loops and emergent properties, to map complex chains of causal factors can assist policy scholars and policy practitioners to understand the likely direction of change and possible responses. In the case of Australia's National Disability Insurance Scheme, our analysis suggests that the likely direction of change will work against two of the fundamental design features of the NDIS: providing participants with more choice and control, and ensuring all eligible Australians are able to access appropriate services and supports regardless of where they live. Our analysis points to the use of price regulation as the site of potential intervention because of the role it plays in subsequent feedback loops and the development of the two, unwelcome, emergent properties.     

Interactive governance and implementation effectiveness in India's National Health Insurance Program

Many public sector programs, such as those directed at public health, are often multiagency tasks where structural incongruity in the program design is liable to emerge over time from changing operational requirements. Yet, successful implementation remains possible because of the interactions and relationships between implementation parties that encourage cooperation and collaboration despite incongruence in the program design. We examine how the dynamics of these interparty relationships influence implementation success in a comparative study of India's National Health Insurance Scheme. We find that implementation parties exhibiting support and complementarity in their interactions created a virtuous cycle of continually encouraging better performance and vice versa. Thus, our findings exhibit a distinct functionary role of interparty interactions and relationships for eliciting effective implementation and governance. The analysis also showcases the need for policy makers and policy designers to be cognizant of the inadvertent introduction of structural inconsistencies and veto points into program designs and their potential influence on implementation outcomes.     

The Effect of Lower Transaction Costs on Social Security Disability Insurance Application Rates and Participation

Transaction costs pose significant barriers to participation in public programs. We analyze how Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) application behavior was affected by iClaim, a 2009 innovation that streamlined the online application process. We use a difference‐in‐differences design to compare application rates before and after 2009 across counties with varying degrees of access to high‐speed internet. We estimate that counties with internet connectivity one standard‐deviation above the mean experienced a 1.6 percent increase in SSDI applications, and a 2.8 percent increase in appeals after the reform. We estimate that the increase in applications due to iClaim can explain 15 percent of the overall increase in applications between 2008 and 2011. Higher exposure to the online application led to a slightly larger increase in SSDI awards, meaning there was a small but significant increase in the overall award rate. Application rates increased the most in rural areas, while appeals and awards had more significant increases in urban areas. These results suggest that the online application reduced transaction costs to applicants, and the lower costs improved the overall targeting efficiency of the application process.     

Health Insurance in Transition: The Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996

The Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA)of 1996 (PL. 104–191) brings the federal government fullyinto insurance regulation for the first time. Despite the Republicanmajority's rhetoric about state control, election-year politicstrumped federalism. HIPAA's immediate impact oncoverage maybe modest, but its ultimate significance is great because itcreates a template for more farreaching federal involvementin regulating insurance. HIPAA amends the Employee RetirementIncome Security Act (ERISA), the Public Health Service Act,and the Internal Revenue Code, creating a complicatedstructuredictated by efforts to avoid an unfunded mandate. The historyof insurance regulation and the activity surrounding the enactmentof PL. 104–191 suggest that HIPAA continues an incrementalprocess of transition between state insurance regulation andfederal oversight driven by recent and accelerating changesin the structure of the health-care marketplace.     

Recent trends in the Social Security Disability Insurance Program

Earlier analysis documented the rapid growth of the Disability Insurance (DI) program from 1966 to 1975; this article discusses trends since 1975. Over the decade of the 1970's, the population insured for disability increased by 34 percent, and women as a proportion of the insured population rose from 32.4 percent in 1970 to 39.1 percent in 1980, reflecting the increase in female labor-force participation. Of disabled workers receiving benefits, the proportion that were women rose from 28.4 percent in 1970 to 32.4 percent in 1979. Although inflation caused total benefit costs to rise over the entire period, the number of DI beneficiaries began to decline in 1978. Disabled-worker awards reached a peak in 1975 and fell subsequently so that the 1969 and 1981 figures are approximately equal. Relative to 1970, the fraction of awards going to women increased, the share for persons aged 50-54 rose, and the proportion received by those aged 60-64 declined. Decreased in total awards, and hence recipients, stemmed primarily from higher rates of denial at both the initial application and the reconsideration stages. Higher denials were countered by substantial rises in the number of hearings and reversals by administrative law judges (ALJ's). in 1980, only 65 percent of all awards came from initial applications, while over a fourth resulted from ALJ reversals. In future years, recent legislative changes may be expected to curtail program expansion further.     

Longitudinal statistics on work activity and use of employment supports for new Social Security Disability Insurance beneficiaries

We present longitudinal employment and work-incentive statistics for individuals who began receiving Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) benefits from 1996 through 2006. For the longest-observed cohort, 28 percent returned to work, 6.5 percent had their benefits suspended for work in at least 1 month, and 3.7 percent had their benefits terminated for work. The corresponding percentages are much higher for those who were younger than age 40 when they entered the DI program. Most first suspensions occurred within 5 years after entry. Cross-state variation in outcomes is high, and, to the extent observed, statistics for more recent cohorts are lower.     

Alternative Methods of Experience Rating Unemployment Insurance Employer Taxes

For most states the methodology used for assigning Unemployment Insurance tax rates to employers arose when the program was first established in 1935. More than 80 years later, with evolving employment relationships, state systems have become outmoded. This paper critiques current experience rating methods and presents new methodologies that are much easier to operate and that improve the incentives for employers to increase employment. The proposed methods would assess taxes based on employment or payroll variation such that growing firms would have lower taxes. A simulation analysis illustrates the impact of the new methods on employer groups.     

新型农村社会养老保险政策评估——基于土地流转制度背景下的研究

面对人口老龄化加剧、劳动力乡城流动、土地流转加速、土地养老功能弱化、农村养老需求增长的严峻局势和新农保试点扩面迅速推进的整体性战略规划,以公共政策评估和政策外部性理论为基础,从政策执行主体、政策服务对象的双重视角评估土地流转制度背景下新型农村社会养老保险政策执行状况和实施效果,通过对东、中、西部新农保试点地区的实态调查,分别获取基层政府工作人员、新农保经办机构人员、农村常住居民三类群体共2779份有效问卷,综合运用描述性统计和通径分析方法,进一步探寻改善政策效果的有效路径。研究结果表明:政府一定程度存在职能缺位、越位,立法、财政、监管责任缺失等问题,而广大农民未能将土地流转潜在养老保障功能与新农保统筹考量,使政策难以达到预期目标,可通过发挥政府主导作用、增强农民土地流转意识、提升经办机构服务能力、有效整合养老政策等具体对策,进一步促进土地流转、提高新农保参保意愿、改善政策执行与实施效果。     

Actuarial status of the HI and SMI Trust Funds

This article is adapted from the 1986 annual reports of the Medicare Board of Trustees. It presents a summary of the current financial and actuarial status of the Hospital Insurance (HI) and Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI) Trust Funds. The Board found that the present financing schedule for the HI program is barely sufficient to ensure the payment of benefits through the late 1990's if the intermediate (II-A and II-B) assumptions underlying the estimates are realized. Although steps have been undertaken to reduce the rate of growth in payments to hospitals, the Board urges Congress to take remedial measures to bring future HI program costs and financing into balance. The Board found the SMI program to be actuarially sound but recommends that Congress take action to curtail the rapid growth in that part of Medicare.     

Workers' compensation, Social Security Disability Insurance, and the offset: a fact sheet

This article offers a brief summary of the workers' compensation and Social Security Disability Insurance programs. Information highlighted includes the differences between the two programs' types and terms of coverage. It compares the differing patterns in workers' compensation and Social Security disability benefits as a percentage of wages over the past few decades and considers the potential causes for such trends. The article also explains the offset provision included in the 1965 Social Security Amendments, the intention behind the offset, and how and when offsets are applied.     

The Impact of Rehabilitation and Counseling Services on the Labor Market Activity of Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) Beneficiaries

We use data from a social experiment to estimate the impact of a rehabilitation and counseling program on the labor market activity of newly entitled Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) beneficiaries. Our results indicate that the program led to a 4.6 percentage point increase in the receipt of employment services within the first year following random assignment and a 5.1 percentage point increase in participation in the Social Security Administration's Ticket to Work program within the first three years following random assignment. The program led to a 5.3 percentage point increase, or almost 50 percent increase, in employment, and an $831 increase in annual earnings in the second calendar year after the calendar year of random assignment. The employment and earnings impacts are smaller and not statistically significant in the third calendar year following random assignment, and we describe SSDI rules that are consistent with this finding. Our findings indicate that disability reform proposals focusing on restoring the work capacity of people with disabilities can increase the disability employment rate.     

Actuarial status of the HI (hospital insurance) and SMI (supplementary medical insurance) Trust Funds

This article is adapted from the 1987 Annual Reports of the Medicare Board of Trustees. It presents a summary of the current financial and actuarial status of the Hospital Insurance (HI) and Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI) Trust Funds. The Board found that the present financing schedule for the HI program is sufficient to ensure the payment of benefits over the next 12-14 years if the intermediate (II-A and II-B) assumptions underlying the estimates are realized. Although steps have been undertaken to reduce the rate of growth in payments to hospitals, the Board urges Congress to take remedial measures to bring future HI program costs and financing into balance. The Board found the SMI program to be actuarially sound but recommends that Congress take action to curtail the rapid growth in that part of Medicare.     

The Political Economy of Growth: Democracy and Human Capital

Democracy is more than just another brake or booster for the economy. We argue that there are significant indirect effects of democracy on growth through public health and education. Where economists use life expectancy and education as proxies for human capital, we expect democracy will be an important determinant of the level of public services manifested in these indicators. In addition to whatever direct effect democracy may have on growth, we predict an important indirect effect through public policies that condition the level of human capital in different societies. We conduct statistical investigations into the direct and indirect effects of democracy on growth using a data set consisting of a 30-year panel of 128 countries. We find that democracy has no statistically significant direct effect on growth. Rather, we discover that the effect of democracy is largely indirect through increased life expectancy in poor countries and increased secondary education in non poor countries.     

Actuarial status of the HI and SMI Trust Funds

This article is adapted from a summary of the 1984 annual reports of the Medicare Board of Trustees. It presents the actuarial status of the Hospital Insurance (HI) and the Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI) Trust Funds. Although the Social Security Amendments of 1983 have made the HI program potentially less vulnerable to excessive rates of growth in the hospital industry by providing the Secretary of Health and Human Services some discretion over the level of payments to hospitals, the Board found the financing schedule for the HI program barely adequate to ensure the payment of benefits through the end of this decade if the assumptions underlying the estimates are realized. The Board found the SMI program to be financially sound, but it noted with concern the rapid growth in the cost of the program and the extent to which general revenues have become SMI's major source of financing. For both HI and SMI, the Board recommends that Congress consider ways to curtail the rapid growth in program costs.     

人口老龄化与农村老年医疗保障制度

人口老龄化导致老年人医疗服务需要增加。然而,经济因素制约了老年人医疗服务需要向需求的转化,阻碍了老年人健康状况的改善。为实现世界卫生组织(W H O)提出的“健康老龄化”目标,促进全面建设小康目标的实现,必须为老年人尤其是收入低且几乎没有任何医疗保障的大量农村老年人建立医疗保障制度。建立制度面临筹资来源少、技术难度高、医疗卫生条件落后等制约因素,需要采取“低水平、广覆盖、采用多种模式、利用各方力量、加强配套设施”的发展策略。通过建立农村老年医疗救助、合作医疗、“时间储蓄”等多种制度,提供完善的医疗供方体系,保障农村老年人的基本医疗需求,促进其健康状况的改善。     

The Politics and economics of revenue growth: A cross–national analysis

Despite considerable interest in comparative fiscal policy in general, and the high salience of tax policy and tax reform in the industrialized democracies, there are relatively few cross–national studies of the economic and political correlates of revenues over time. We undertake a cross–national time series study of revenue growth in fourteen OECD countries between 1958 and 1990.We test a number of political and economic hypotheses about revenue change, including political business cycle, 'fiscal illusion', elasticity, and ideological theories. For the 1958—1990 period, we find that all countries, regardless of revenue structure, experience higher real revenue growth as a result of inflation, but that revenue growth is more responsive to unemployment in countries that rely more on direct taxes compared to countries with less direct–tax reliance. We find that this effect is most pronounced in the post–1972 period. We also find that revenue tends to increase in the years following elections, consistent with the idea that governments try to minimize the political fallout from tax increases by separating them as much as possible from election campaign periods; this effect, too, is most pronounced in the post–1972 period. We find no support for 'fiscal illusion' and ideological theories of revenue growth.