Extension of the portfolio allocation model to surplus majority governments: a fuzzy approach

Scholars have long studied the conditions under which the cabinet making process will result in minority, surplus majority, or minimum-winning governing coalitions in parliamentary systems. Since Riker, a good number of these attempts have been based on rational choice assumptions. Among formal approaches in this vein, Laver and Shepsle’s (Making and breaking governments: Cabinets and legislatures in parliamentary governments, 1996) portfolio allocation model argues that parties centrally located in policy space have a greater potential for being part of any governing coalition and that parties located at the issue-by-issue median have a high likelihood of forming a minority government. However, the model predicts that surplus majority coalitions will only form when the number of salient policy dimensions in the political system is greater than two. We incorporate fuzzy set theory in the portfolio allocation model, permitting us to model ambiguity in parties’ policy preferences. The reformulated model accounts for the formation of surplus majority coalitions in two-dimensional policy space. We illustrate the model’s conclusions with a case study of the 1996 surplus majority coalition in the Lithuanian Seimas.     

The organization of influence on the EC's common agriculturalpolicy: A network approach

The common agricultural policy of the EC with its market regulations is decided at EC level by a multilevel system of government, in which the Commission and the parliamentary parties of the European Parliament play the supranational role and the national ministries of agriculture act as parts of the intergovernmental system of the Council of Ministers. National interest groups have thereby three major access routes to the EC system, first through their national governments, or second indirectly, transmitted by their European peak organizations, or third directly to the supranational EC actors. The network approach is applied to study empirically the densities of access through these various routes. The links between actors in the agricultural policy domain are conceptualized as links for the exchange of resources, the most important resource of a policy domain being the final control of policy decisions. The political actors of the governance system originally hold full control of this valuable resource which they exchange for influence resources possessed by the interest groups, as public support or expert knowledge. Empirically, answers to the network questions depend on the type of resource and the viewpoint of the interviewed actors. An index is developed which indicates the resource flows between actors and the distribution of equilibrium control of policy decisions. It is shown that the national ministers of agriculture depend very much on the support and expertise of their national farmers' lobby, whereas the Commission relies more on contacts within the political sector itself. Multilevel systems need a lot of political coordination, so that the political actors within such systems, especially at the supranational level, seem to deal first of all with each other and not so much with the demand side of politics, compared to the national ministers of agriculture.     

The organization of influence on the EC's common agricultural policy: A network approach

Abstract The common agricultural policy of the EC with its market regulations is decided at EC level by a multilevel system of government, in which the Commission and the parliamentary parties of the European Parliament play the supranational role and the national ministries of agriculture act as parts of the intergovernmental system of the Council of Ministers. National interest groups have thereby three major access routes to the EC system, first through their national governments, or second indirectly, transmitted by their European peak organizations, or third directly to the supranational EC actors. The network approach is applied to study empirically the densities of access through these various routes. The links between actors in the agricultural policy domain are conceptualized as links for the exchange of resources, the most important resource of a policy domain being the final control of policy decisions. The political actors of the governance system originally hold full control of this valuable resource which they exchange for influence resources possessed by the interest groups, as public support or expert knowledge. Empirically, answers to the network questions depend on the type of resource and the viewpoint of the interviewed actors. An index is developed which indicates the resource flows between actors and the distribution of equilibrium control of policy decisions. It is shown that the national ministers of agriculture depend very much on the support and expertise of their national farmers' lobby, whereas the Commission relies more on contacts within the political sector itself. Multilevel systems need a lot of political coordination, so that the political actors within such systems, especially at the supranational level, seem to deal first of all with each other and not so much with the demand side of politics, compared to the national ministers of agriculture.     

Persuading the undecided: An interdisciplinary approach to increase public support for the arts

This paper uses an interdisciplinary approach to address the issue of lack of public support for the arts. The paper utilizes an acquisition- and transaction-value approach from marketing and economic theory to identify 4 segments that vary in the degree to which members of each segment value and support the arts. Using system 1 and system 2 processing styles as discussed in management literature, as well as central and peripheral routes to persuasion as studied in psychology, the segments are examined in order to understand their potential information-processing styles. Last, using advertising and communication theories, the paper proposes the use of information and transformational communication strategies to create better persuasive communications that match the processing styles of targeted segments of undecided decision makers in order to garner greater public support for the arts.     

The portfolio allocation paradox: An investigation into the nature of a very strong but puzzling relationship

Abstract.  Perhaps the strongest empirical finding in political science is 'Gamson's Law': the near-perfect relationship that exists in parliamentary systems between a coalition party's seat contribution to the government and its quantitative allocation of cabinet portfolios. Nevertheless, doubts remain. What would happen if the salience or importance of the various portfolios was also taken into account? Should it not be the case that payoffs correspond with bargaining power rather than seat contributions? And perhaps most significantly, would addressing these issues produce evidence that the parties designated to form governments extract disproportionately large payoffs for themselves, as predicted by 'proposer' models of bargaining? Utilizing the results of a new expert survey of portfolio salience in 14 Western European countries, the authors of this article explore each of these questions. Their basic finding is that salience-weighted portfolios payoffs overwhelmingly mirror seat contributions, contra proposer models and any other models based on bargaining power. The article concludes with a discussion of the implications for formal models of bargaining.     

An empirical approach to the optimal size of the civil service

This article attempts a purely empirical approach to the issue of optimal civil service size by looking for a systematic relationship between observed size and underlying explanators. The residuals from such a fitted relationship then serve as a first approximation to whether the government in question is overstaffed or not. The data are from Indian subnational states, which as members of a single federation, follow the same definitional conventions with respect to the civil service. The contribution of the article is methodological, and addresses an issue of central importance, since staff downsizing conditionalities attached to externally funded structural adjustment programmes are not analytically underpinned. The article also explores issues surrounding the composition of the civil service. There is no evidence that overstaffing, as determined from the residuals of the estimated specification, is the joint outcome along with staff composition, as proxied by mean salary, of job creation pressures at the lower salary scales. This suggests that correction of overstaffing might be possible without political opposition, while at the same time leaving unexplained the variation in staff composition across states. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Two models of the urban crisis: An analytical essay on banfield and forrester

This essay examines the arguments and evidence used in two recent models of the urban crisis—Edward C. Banfield'sThe Unheavenly City and Jay W. Forrester'sUrban Dynamics. Although Banfield's model is sociological and Forrester's is economic and physical, both imply that not much can be done to alleviate urban problems and that positive programs may make them worse. The authors of this critique contend that the articulation of argument and evidence is inadequate to support the implication. They advocate that promising current programs be refined on the basis of evidence and experience and that policymakers continue to search for efficient new programs through social experiments.     

Measuring Political Brands: An Art and a Science of Mapping the Mind

The field of political brands has developed a host of approaches and explored a variety of cases over the last years. However, less attention has been devoted to brand measurement—specifically efforts to construct a measure that attempts to explain the relationship between voters and parties. Against this backdrop, this article discusses how to measure a political brand by first selecting one part of the diverse brand concept for further investigation. Next, the two existing brand measures in the literature are evaluated, and the article proposes an alternative measure that underlines a stronger connection to the immense political science literature on voters and parties. Then, the three measures are compared by empirically investigating which measure is best at explaining voters' party sympathy. Here, it is demonstrated that the alternative measure seems to be the most valid and reliable construct when it comes to explaining voters' sympathy for a particular party. Finally, the proposed alternative measure is further validated in a representative sample (N = 2251), establishing a preliminary correlation between party brand and voter sympathy.     

Comparing the legitimacy and effectiveness of global hard and soft law: An analytical framework

The international norms that are developed as tools of global governance can be placed on a continuum from traditional “hard law” treaties to the vaguest and voluntary “soft law.” In this article we develop an analytical framework for comparing norms on different positions along the continuum, thus for comparing international hard and soft law. We root the framework in both the rationalist and the constructivist paradigms of international relations by focusing on two overarching evaluative criteria: effectiveness and legitimacy. These broad concepts are divided into smaller building blocks encompassing mechanisms through which norms can exert influence; for example, by changing material incentives, identities, and building capacity, and by contributing to building source‐based, procedural, and substantive legitimacy. We illustrate the applicability of the framework with three norm processes of varying degrees of “softness” in global climate governance.     

Modeling and testing the diffusion of expectations: An EITM approach

This paper uses the empirical implications of theoretical models (EITM) framework to examine the consequences of the asymmetric diffusion of expectations. In the spirit of the traditional two-step flow model of communication, less-informed agents learn the expectations of more-informed agents. We find that when there is misinterpretation in the information acquisition process, a boomerang effect exists. In this equilibrium the less-informed agents’ forecasts confound those of more-informed agents. We apply the EITM approach to a key economic variable known to have a relation to economic fluctuations – inflation expectations. Using surveyed inflation expectations data for the period, 1978–2000, we find the boomerang effect exists. One implication of this finding pertains to economic policy and economic volatility: because policymakers have more information than the public, the boomerang effect can lead policymakers to make inaccurate forecasts of economic conditions and conduct erroneous policies which contribute to economic instability.     

Thalidomide, BSE and the single market: An historical-institutionalist approach to regulatory regimes in the European Union

Abstract.  The success of the European Union in regulating the safety of products in the single market differs widely. In the last decade, the regulatory regime for pharmaceuticals has functioned without raising public concerns. The establishment of a European agency for pharmaceuticals in the early 1990s has been evaluated positively by both producers and consumers, and there have been no large scandals so far. At the same time, the food sector was subject to a whole range of crises, of which the BSE scandal was certainly the most significant one. In reaction to this, the regulatory regime for foodstuffs was reformed by setting up the European Food Safety Agency in 2002. This article adopts an historical-institutionalist approach, and thus tries to give an explanation for the striking differences between the two regulatory regimes. Accordingly, the development of supranational regulatory regimes is distinguished by two critical junctures: a crisis of consumer confidence and the establishment of a single market. It is crucial which of these occurred first. If a crisis of consumer confidence leads to the establishment of national regulatory authorities, these authorities act as stakeholders, which could be an obstacle for harmonization, but also ensures a necessary commitment to health and consumer protection once a single market is set up. If national regulatory authorities are missing, it might be easier to set up a single market, but a regulatory deficit is more likely to occur and, in case of a crisis, the whole regulatory regime has to be established at the supranational level.     

Estimating policy positions using political texts: An evaluation of the Wordscores approach

This paper evaluates a recently developed method for extracting policy positions from political texts, known as Wordscores. This computerized content analysis technique is a potentially powerful tool for scholars interested in the study of political elites, since it promises an easy and efficient way of inferring policy position from texts and speeches. In this article, we provide a systematic evaluation of this promising method. Using Danish manifestos and government speeches from 1945 to 2005, we compare the policy positions extracted using Wordscores with measures of positions from the well-known Comparative Manifesto Project and cross-validate these with party expert surveys. Our analysis shows that the word scoring technique arrives at largely similar estimates to independently derived position measures and produces time series of government positions with high face validity.     

An approach to the legislative production of the Spanish parliament (1979–1982)

Abstract. Analysis of Spain's first constitutional legislature (1979–1982) reveals (with the logical reservations derived from the fact that this was the first democratic legislature after the many years of Franco's dictatorship) the Spanish Parliament's important influence on the legislative process in terms of both initiating legislation and proposing amendments to bills introduced. This influence may possibly have stemmed from the fragile government of Union de Centro Democrático (UCD) at a time when the party had only a relative majority in Parliament and was torn by serious internal problems, both ideological and personal, which caused it to all but disappear in the 1982 election. All of this took place within the framework of a system of centralized political decision-making in which political leaders played a starring role.     

加压式减负:基层减负难的一个解释性框架

基层减负是加强基层治理现代化建设的重要议题。对珠三角A镇的实地调研显示:基层减负取得了一定的成效,但基层工作人员的减负获得感仍然不强,工作压力有增无减,加班加点仍是常态,无效劳动时间越来越长。“加压式减负”的解释框架有助于理解基层负担“越减越负”的悖论:基层减负难,难在做形式主义减法的同时不断地做实质性职责扩张的加法,加压环境的刚性存在使基层处于一种任务超载而资源匮乏的境地,进而造成基层形式主义应对方式的蔓延。基层减负,不是要减少基层政府的工作量,而是要厘清政府与市场、政府与社会的边界,优化纵向政府间权责资源配置,完善基层工作激励约束机制,真正使基层更好地把工作重心落到为公众服务上来。     

中国政府绩效管理的研究热点与前沿解析——基于科学知识图谱的方法

当前政府绩效管理已成为与公共部门人力资源管理、政府财政与预算、政府信息资源管理、政府组织管理与战略、风险与公共危机管理等一并备受公共管理学界竞相推崇的热点议题。近十年来,国内学术界产出的政府绩效管理文献可谓汗牛充栋,亟待对这些文献及其研究主题予以科学评估和综述概览。运用CiteSpace Ⅳ可视化分析软件对中国知网(CNKI)期刊数据库政府绩效管理主题文献进行聚类和计量分析,发现中国政府绩效管理研究热点主题集中于政府绩效管理体系构成与制度要件、政府绩效管理与行政管理体制改革、政府绩效管理的合法性与外部宏观改革逻辑等研究层面,而未来的研究倾向于政府绩效管理的"预算绩效""公共价值""行政体制改革"及其他如"政府绩效评估"等维度。运用知识图谱和文献聚类方法梳理政府绩效管理研究的学术热点与前沿动态,有助于提升政府绩效管理研究质量和学术元意识,明晰政府绩效管理研究的知识进路和逻辑脉络,促进中国特色政府绩效管理理论体系与话语建设。