21世纪俄罗斯在亚太地区的发展战略要点述评

普京执政以来．俄罗斯对外发展战略重心明显向亚太地区倾斜。21世纪俄罗斯将利用其东部——西伯利亚与远东的优势．积极参加亚太经济一体化．从中央到地方将制定和实施一系列优惠政策和实际措施发展该地区与亚太国家的多领域合作。本文主要阐述了2000年9月贝加尔经济论坛通过的《21世纪俄罗斯在亚太地区发展战略》的要点．并提出了对发展中俄经贸关系具有一定意义的几个结论。     

Trade liberalization and the new regionalism in the Asia-Pacific: taking stock of recent events

In the aftermath of the regional financial crisis of 1997–98,many Asian economies have underscored the need consciously andaggressively to explore alternative liberalization paths or‘fallback positions’. This is where the ‘newregionalism’ or new regional trade agreements (RTAs) becomerelevant. This paper explores some of the primary rationalebehind, and main concerns regarding, the proliferation of bilateraland plurilateral trade pacts in the Asia-Pacific region. Italso considers the ‘dynamic time path’ of AsianRTAs. Do they facilitate or hinder multilateral trade liberalization?     

What Kinds of Trade Liberalization Agreements Do People in Developing Countries Want?

One of the most striking developments in the global economy in the past decades is the rapid proliferation of preferential trade agreements (PTAs), with many of them concluded among or with participation of developing countries. On the presumption that current popular debates on trade policy are not so much about whether citizens want free trade but rather what kinds of trade liberalization they want, we examine individual trade policy preferences with regard to PTAs that can vary in content along several dimensions. To that end we carried out conjoint choice experiments embedded in representative surveys in three developing countries that differ strongly in income levels, political system, and trade liberalization history: Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Vietnam. We conceptualize trade policy preferences as preferences over the scale and scope of trade liberalization, environmental and labor standards, and labor market access (migration). Two main findings emerge. First, non-economic considerations, such as sympathy/antipathy toward particular countries and environmental and labor rights concerns influence citizens’ preferences at least as much as factors based on standard economic logic. Second, preferences over particular facets (attributes) of trade liberalization, that is PTA content, are surprisingly consistent across countries, despite strong differences in macro-economic and political context.     

俄罗斯远东地区外资发展态势分析

俄罗斯远东地区由于具有丰富的资源和临近亚太地区,对国外的资金注入具有极大的吸引力。经济转轨以来,远东地区把发展外贸、吸引外资,作为加快地区经济发展,改革地区经济构成,促进工业现代化、丰富市场及加快向市场经济靠拢的重要措施。远东地区外资的分布不尽合理,各国投资的额度差距也很大。     

International System and China’s Asia-Pacific Strategy

What impact does a shift in the global distribution of power have on the international order? According to the views of traditional realists,power transitions in the international order are usually accompanied by major wars,the best example being the two world wars of the twentieth century.China’s peaceful rise is conducive to the peace and stability of Asia and Pacific regions.The steady rise of China’s position and its role in dealing with international and regional problems have proved China’s success in...     

The European Union’s trade and investment policy in Asia: new challenges and opportunities in a changing global environment – or: following individual roadmaps

Asia is Europe’s largest trading partner and EU-Asia trade relations have undergone a rapid change since the global financial crisis. On a global scale, the new multilateral trade agreements such as the now stalled Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) involving European Unions’ (EU) major trading partners such as Japan, Singapore and Vietnam also have the potential to change the trade equations. In this paper, we evaluate the new EU trade policy which has been designed to ensure that the EU benefits from the changing global trade scenario and also look at the steps which have been taken by the EU to promote trade relations with its major trading partners in Asia in the predicted ‘Asian century’. We look into the Free Trade Agreements, which are being negotiated with its Asian partners and seek to understand the reasons which have resulted in delays in their signing and negotiations. We evaluate new policies pushed forward by its Asian partners such as the One Belt One Road policy by China and Japan’s policy of securing a large number of trading agreements in the America. Moving ahead, we also shed light on the indirect factors that may influence the success of EU trade negotiations in Asia such as the EU policy on granting China market economy status and the commencement of the ‘Brexit’ process. Lastly, we try to present a list of immediate priorities for EU in Asia, which will ensure that it secures a toehold in trade with the region. All in all, it is shown that the EU has not one and the same approach for all Asian countries but it negotiates flexibly and individually country by country. Because of this “country by country approach” the EU is also not ready to enter into general EU-ASEAN trade negotiations again.     

How effective are preferential trade agreements? Ask the experts

Limited data on regional and preferential trade agreements prevent social scientists from testing some of the international cooperation literature??s most important claims. Expert surveys??a technique that is widely used in the field of comparative politics but thus far underutilized in international relations??allow us to capture many aspects of trade agreements for which data would otherwise be unavailable. They also provide us with a means of comparing agreements across regions and issue areas. We present a new dataset of expert opinion on the world??s regional trade organizations. Our survey covers 24 dimensions of 40 different regional agreements??including the perceived effectiveness of trade liberalization, the degree to which dispute settlement mechanisms are easy to use, and the political and international influence of the agreement. Bayesian factor analysis allows us to extract a principal dimension of effectiveness.     

冷战时期澳大利亚与东南亚的安全关系

冷战时期,随着外交和经济交往的日益增多,澳大利亚对东南亚的认识发生了重要的变化,东南亚在其外交和安全政策中的地位不断上升,重要性不断显现。在这种背景下,澳大利亚通过几次政策调整,最终与东南亚国家建立了一种良性互动的双边安全关系,从根本上改变了以欧洲为中心的传统政策,亚太成为澳大利亚外交和安全的新中心。     

Seal the Deal: Bargaining Positions,Institutional Design,and the Duration of Preferential Trade Negotiations

Multilateral negotiations at the World Trade Organization have stalled. This has contributed to a steep rise in preferential trade agreements (PTAs). At the same time, negotiations for PTAs have not always proven quick and painless: While some treaties are sealed within a few months or days only, other agreements are preceded by protracted bargaining processes in trade and trade-related issue areas. In this article, we provide a theoretical explanation for this empirical variation. More specifically, we argue that PTA negotiations take longer the greater the distance between the prospective partners’ initial bargaining positions. Moreover, we contend that negotiation processes become more protracted the higher the relative ambition of the prospective PTA. Due to the limited links to the domestic political arena in autocracies, we expect this latter effect to play out for groups of democratic bargaining partners only. We test these two hypotheses for 198 preferential trade negotiations using novel measures for bargaining templates and the ambition of PTA clauses. In our two-stage survival models, we find support for our argument. In line with qualitative evidence from recent preferential trade initiatives, our models indicate that services, investment and intellectual property rights are particularly sticky agenda items for democratic leaders at the international bargaining table.     

东盟区域经济一体化及其效应

近年来，东盟的区域经济一体化方兴未艾，并出现一系列格局性变化。东盟加快了自身区域一体化步伐，东盟与区外国家的自由贸易区迅速兴起，东盟成员国与区外国家的双边自由贸易协定不断涌现。东盟区域经济一体化的效应开始逐步显现，它不同程度地表现为区内贸易的扩大，产业内分工与贸易的增强，以及对区内外投资的吸引。     

‘We care about you,but …’: the politics of EU trade policy and development

The European Union (EU) is one of the most important markets for developing countries, and trade policy has long been one of its most important instruments for promoting development. There is, however, a paradox at the heart of the relationship between the EU's trade policy and development. On the one hand the EU's trade as development policy has undergone a paradigm shift, the objective shifting from supporting the former colonies of the EU's member states to addressing poverty and with a greater emphasis on reciprocal liberalization. On the other hand, the EU's conventional trade policy initiatives—particularly its market access objectives in the Doha Round and in commercially motivated bilateral trade agreements—have adverse consequences for developing countries, as does its tendency to adopt stringent product regulations. We argue that this paradox is explained by differences in how much traction the emphasis on the development implications of trade has had in the EU's various trade policy subsystems.     

Australia's dilemma between geography and history: how consolidated is engagement with Asia?

Australia's relations with Asia have been variously envisionedas integration, enmeshment or engagement, and this relationshipdescribed as comprehensive, close, cooperative, positive andmultifaceted. Among its components, economic, political, socio-cultural,and military or strategic spheres have been distinguished. Theuse of several designations, and the emphasis of distinctivecharacteristics and components, has led to the appearance ofdifferent meanings and implications. In order to overcome thisproblem, this article aims to provide a conceptual frameworkin terms of which the process of Australia's engagement withAsia can be described, explained and predicted. Thus, a conceptualframework is developed, and tested empirically for the period1991–2001. This article argues that Australia is stillfar from achieving behavioral, attitudinal and institutionalconsolidation in its engagement with Asia.     

试论奥巴马第二任期以来亚太安全政策的调整

美国总统奥巴马开始第二任期后,继续推动"亚太再平衡"战略,并对亚太安全政策进行了调整。主要表现为继续强化在亚太地区的军事能力和安全存在、注重发挥盟友和安全伙伴的作用、通过多元化资源投入弥补安全的有限性以及对地区热点问题采取有效管控等。但美国亚太安全政策也受国内的孤立主义思潮、国防预算的削减、其他地区热点问题的掣肘以及亚太地区其他国家的动能不足等因素的制约。中国应把握奥巴马政府安全政策调整的机会,降低来自美国的安全压力。     

Think globally,buy locally: International agreements and government procurement

Do international treaties constrain national governments? The answer appears to be “yes” when it comes to the use of traditional barriers to trade, such as tariffs. Yet, while many governments have cut tariffs to comply with international agreements, they have often raised non-tariff barriers in their place. One increasingly prominent non-tariff barrier is discrimination in public procurement. Governments frequently discriminate against foreign suppliers in favor of domestic ones when buying goods and services. In an attempt to reduce procurement discrimination, international organizations, such as the World Trade Organization, have devoted ever more attention to members’ procurement practices. Additionally, a growing number of preferential trade agreements seek to regulate public procurement. It remains unclear, however, whether international rules are effective in changing governments’ purchasing behavior. Using original data, we find that neither multilateral nor preferential procurement agreements substantially reduce governments’ propensity to “buy national.” These results illustrate the difficulty of regulating non-transparent policy areas via international treaties.     

从同盟角度看日澳结盟趋向的原因及影响

20世纪以来,日澳军事互动升温,逐渐呈现出在多边框架中的双边互动趋势,日益彰显军事互动的机制性,日澳关系结盟化。从同盟角度来看,日澳声称的共同威胁状况、日澳的结盟经历及其对两国的影响、日澳在文化观念上的相互认同状况是分析日澳结盟趋向原因的有益视角。日澳走向军事结盟的趋势对包括中国、美国在内的亚太及全球安全形势必将产生巨大而深远的影响。     

Why do some international institutions contain strong dispute settlement provisions? New evidence from preferential trade agreements

To understand why some international institutions have stronger dispute settlement mechanisms (DSMs) than others, we investigate the dispute settlement provisions of nearly 600 preferential trade agreements (PTAs), which possess several desirable case-selection features and are evoked more than is realized. We broaden the study of dispute settlement design beyond “legalization” and instead reorient theorizing around a multi-faceted conceptualization of the strength of DSMs. We posit that strong DSMs are first and foremost a rational response to features of agreements that require stronger dispute settlement, such as depth and large memberships. Multivariate empirical tests using a new data set on PTA design confirm these expectations and reveal that depth – the amount of policy change specified in an agreement – is the most powerful and consistent predictor of DSM strength, providing empirical support to a long-posited but controversial conjecture. Yet power also plays a sizeable role, since agreements among asymmetric members are more likely to have strong DSMs due to their mutual appeal, as are those involving the United States. Important regional differences also emerge, as PTAs across the Americas are designed with strong dispute settlement, as are Asian PTAs, which contradicts the conventional wisdom about Asian values and legalization. Our findings demonstrate that rationalism explains much of international institutional design, yet it can be enhanced by also incorporating power-based and regional explanations.     

Intellectual property provisions and support for US trade agreements

Intellectual property rights are a key piece of the expanded trade agenda, and the United States has pushed hard to strengthen protections beyond WTO standards in its trade agreements. While agreement provisions governing intellectual property are commonly thought to be an important driver of corporate preferences over US trade policy, systematic empirical evidence for this proposition, especially in comparison to other determinants of trade policy, is generally lacking. To fill this void, this paper examines variation in reliance on intellectual property across US industries to explain attitudes and lobbying on US trade agreements. The effects of IP provisions on support for US trade agreements are politically substantial, though trade remains the primary determinant of preferences over trade agreements.     

Trade and investment: Introduction to the special issue

This special issue focuses on a variety of political-economy questions on trade and investment and is guided by a shared understanding that trade and investment processes can no longer be studied in isolation from each other. Three articles provide new insights into the study of the design of preferential trade agreements and effects thereof, two of which focus on the politically salient issues of non-trade concerns. A third one investigates which export sectors win from improved market access opportunities, in order words, how gains from trade are distributed. Two articles study the World Trade Organization’s dispute settlement system. One contribution is unpacking the role of the most important and influential firms and investors in affecting US behavior in WTO disputes, a second contribution studies how leadership changes in democracies and autocracies have different effects on dispute behavior. Finally, the special issue includes a new study on how the shadow economies in developing states are affected by the integration into the world economy (trade and investment) and by policy programs of the International Monetary Fund.     

Preferential Trade Agreements and Trade Expectations Theory

Studies find that members of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) are less likely to be involved in militarized conflict. An expectation of continuing amicable trade relations is among the factors linking PTAs to peace. However, this role of PTAs is difficult to test due to the problem of observational equivalence; PTAs correlate with trade levels and liberalization, factors also linked to peace. In this article, we isolate the impact of PTAs on trade expectations by distinguishing between signed agreements and those in force. A focus on signed but not-yet-in-force PTAs allows us to assess the correlation between agreements and peace before other pacifying, and therefore potentially confounding, elements emerge. Statistical tests spanning 1957 to 2000 demonstrate that signed PTAs are pacifying, while in-force agreements have no statistically significant impact when controlling for other factors linked to peace.     

EU enlargement and the rise of Asian FTAs: Implications for Asia-Europe relations

  Over the past few years, there has been resurgence in regionalism and preferential trade across the global economic system. The European Union has taken steps at enlargement of their economic community to include countries in Central and Eastern Europe. Bilateral trade arrangements are proliferating in Asia involving the region's largest economies Japan and China. These arrangements mirror similar initiatives in the Americas. These developments have profound implications on the world trading system, in general, and to Asia-Europe relations in particular. The rise of preferentialism runs the risk of heightened discrimination, trade diversion and the fragmentation of the multilateral trade order. This prospect will have a direct impact on the future relations between Asia and Europe. Both Europe and Asia should remain outward oriented, open to reciprocal arrangements with non-member economies, and supportive of the multilateral trading system.