HCR-20 violence risk assessments as a guide for treating and managing violence risk in a forensic psychiatric setting

Abstract

Over the past decades there has been a vast development in the research into risk factors for violence and the development of risk assessment instruments. One instrument that has been given special attention is the HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme. However, little attention has been paid to the clinical applicability of this tool, i.e. how does this assessment scheme perform when utilized in clinical practice as a tool to guide intervention and management in order to alleviate risk of violent behaviour? The present study was a true prospective study into the utilization of the HCR-20 as a clinical routine. Data on forensic psychiatric patients (n = 81) from a forensic unit in Denmark are presented. As part of a clinical routine all patients were assessed for risk of future violence utilizing the structured professional judgement model, the HCR-20. Outcome measures were aggressive episodes during hospitalization and new convictions post discharge. The predictive validity of the HCR-20 was lower compared with previous findings. It is argued that this does not necessarily indicate poor predictive accuracy of the HCR-20. Rather, it may indicate that the HCR-20 is suitable for guiding risk management in order to prevent violent behaviour.     

Assessing change in dynamic risk factors in forensic psychiatric inpatients: relationship with psychopathy and recidivism

This study explored change in dynamic risk for violence using the Clinical and Risk Management subscales of the Historical Clinical and Risk Management-20 version 3 (HCR-20 v3) and sought to determine whether change was associated with violent recidivism. The association between the magnitude of change and psychopathy was also assessed. Participants were 40 male (n = 32) and female (n = 8) forensic psychiatric inpatients discharged from a secure forensic mental health service. Results showed that participants significantly improved on the HCR-20v3 Clinical subscale but significantly worsened on the Risk Management subscale. Psychopathy was unrelated to change in Clinical and Risk Management subscales. The hypothesis that changes in dynamic risk would predict recidivism over and above total pre-treatment risk (HCR-20v3 Total score) and psychopathy was not supported. These results suggest that improvements in mental state risk factors alone are insufficient with regard to lowering violence risk.     

Violence risk profile of medium- and high-security NGRI offenders in Belgium

Under Belgian law, offenders not guilty by reason of insanity (NGRI) are committed by the courts to forensic mental health treatment. The use of violence risk assessment tools has become routine in these settings. However, there are no national statistics regarding violence risk assessment in the Belgian forensic population. A study was undertaken to collect risk assessment data (PCL-R, VRAG, HCR-20) on a large cohort of forensic patients committed to Medium Security units in the Flanders region and in High-Security units in the Walloon region. Flemish patients were expected to present a lower risk compared with their Walloon counterparts. Instead, data yielded by a structured risk assessment method demonstrate the opposite. Moreover, the majority of patients in Flemish facilities had committed violent offenses and were institutionalized for shorter periods whereas the majority of Walloon patients had committed sexual offenses and were institutionalized for markedly longer periods.     

Prospective Replication of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide in Predicting Violent Recidivism Among Forensic Patients

An exhaustive survey of a cohort of forensic patients provided an opportunity for a prospective replication of the predictive accuracy of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG). Data collected during the original survey also permitted a test of the predictive accuracy of clinical assessments of risk on the same cohort. The VRAG yielded a large effect size in predicting violent recidivism (ROC area = .80) over a constant 5-year follow-up and performed significantly better than averaged clinical opinions. The superiority of the VRAG was also observed at very short follow-up times and for very serious violence. Moreover, for 16 subsamples, observed rates of violent recidivism did not differ significantly from the expected rates. VRAG score was unrelated, and clinical judgments inversely related to violent recidivism in the small low-risk sample of female forensic patients. The authors conclude that, regardless of length of opportunity or severity of outcome, actuarial methods are more accurate than is clinical judgment.     

The Influence of Actuarial Risk Assessment in Clinical Judgments and Tribunal Decisions about Mentally Disordered Offenders in Maximum Security

Research has shown that actuarial assessments of violence risk are consistently more accurate than unaided judgments by clinicians, and it has been suggested that the availability of actuarial instruments will improve forensic decision making. This study examined clinical judgments and autonomous review tribunal decisions to detain forensic patients in maximum security. Variables included the availability of an actuarial risk report at the time of decision making, patient characteristics and history, and clinical presentation over the previous year. Detained and transferred patients did not differ in their actuarial risk of violent recidivism. The best predictor of tribunal decision was the senior clinician's testimony. There was also no significant association between the actuarial risk score and clinicians' opinions. Whether the actuarial report was available at the time of decision making did not alter the statistical model of either clinical judgments or tribunal decisions. Implications for the use of actuarial risk assessment in forensic decision making are discussed.     

Examining the Role of Static and Dynamic Risk Factors in the Prediction of Inpatient Violence: Variable- and Person-Focused Analyses

Although the construct of psychopathy is related to community violence and recidivism in various populations, empirical evidence suggests that its association with institutional aggression is weak at best. The current study examined, via both variable-level and group-level analyses, the relationship between standard violence risk instruments, which included a measure of psychopathy, and institutional violence. Additionally, the incremental validity of dynamic risk factors also was examined. The results suggest that PCL-R was only weakly related to institutional aggression and only then when the behavioral (Factor 2) aspects of the construct were examined. The clinical and risk management scales on the HCR-20, impulsivity, anger, and psychiatric symptoms all were useful in identifying patients at risk for exhibiting institutional aggression. These data suggest that factors other than psychopathy, including dynamic risk factors, may be most useful in identifying forensic patients at higher risk for exhibiting aggression.     

Predictive Validity of the SVR-20 and Static-99 in a Dutch Sample of Treated Sex Offenders

In this retrospective study, the interrater reliability and predictive validity of 2 risk assessment instruments for sexual violence are presented. The SVR-20, an instrument for structured professional judgment, and the Static-99, an actuarial risk assessment instrument, were coded from file information of 122 sex offenders who were admitted to a Dutch forensic psychiatric hospital between 1974 and 1996 (average follow-up period 140 months). Recidivism data (reconvictions) from the Ministry of Justice were related to the risk assessments. The base rate for sexual recidivism was 39%, for nonsexual violent offenses 46%, and for general offenses 74%. Predictive validity of the SVR-20 was good (total score: r = .50, AUC = .80; final risk judgment: r = .60, AUC = .83), of the Static-99 moderate (total score: r = .38, AUC =.71; risk category: r = .30, AUC = .66). The SVR-20 final risk judgment was a significantly better predictor of sexual recidivism than the Static-99 risk category.     

Field validity of the HCR-20 in forensic medium security units in Flanders

Structured risk assessment has become a part of routine practice in forensic settings. However, little attention has been paid to the clinical applicability of existing tools. The present research focused on the performance of the Historical Clinical Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) – one of the most commonly used tools for structured professional judgment – in the daily practice of three medium security units in Flanders. Areas under the curve for the prediction of violent recidivism during (N?=?168) and after (N?=?105) medium security treatment were non-significant. In addition, analyses showed that the HCR-20 was mainly of interest in identifying low-risk individuals. Further research measuring different aspects of predictive validity in applied settings is recommended.     

Applying a forensic actuarial assessment (the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide) to nonforensic patients

The actuarial Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) was developed for male offenders where it has shown excellent replicability in many new forensic samples using officially recorded outcomes. Clinicians also make decisions, however, about the risk of interpersonal violence posed by nonforensic psychiatric patients of both sexes. Could an actuarial risk assessment developed for male forensic populations be used for a broader clientele? We modified the VRAG to permit evaluation using data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study that included nonforensic male and female patients and primarily self-reported violence. The modified VRAG yielded a large effect size in the prediction of dichotomous postdischarge severe violence over 20 and 50 weeks. Accuracy of VRAG predictions was unrelated to sex. The results provide evidence about the robustness of comprehensive actuarial risk assessments and the generality of the personal factors that underlie violent behavior.     

Risk factors for recidivism among spousal assault and spousal homicide offenders

Abstract

The Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide (SARA; Kropp et al., 1995) is a 20-item checklist for the structured professional assessment of risk for partner violence. This study reported on a retrospective follow-up of file-based SARA assessments of offenders convicted 1988–1990 in Sweden. A total of 88 male batterers referred for court-ordered forensic psychiatric evaluations were included. During the 7-year follow-up, twenty-five (28%) were re-convicted of spousal assault. A few SARA items were statistically significantly associated with increased risk of recidivism, namely: Items #3, Past violation of conditional release or community supervision, #10 Personality disorder with anger, impulsivity, or behavioural instability (psychopathy), and #16 Extreme minimisation or denial of spousal assault history. The severity of the index crime (#18 Severe and/or sexual assault) was negatively related to risk for recidivism during follow-up. Offenders scoring above the median on the SARA were at more than 2.5 higher the risk for recidivism than those scoring below the median. In terms of predictive validity, the SARA actuarial score exhibited a marginal but statistically significant improvement over chance in this sample.     

Characteristics and offences of women with borderline personality disorder in forensic psychiatry: a multicentre study

Although female forensic patients diagnosed with borderline personality disorder (BPD) are generally considered taxing in clinical practice, little is known about their specific characteristics or offences. In this study, 156 female forensic psychiatric patients diagnosed with BPD were compared to 113 diagnosed otherwise. Information on demographic and psychiatric characteristics, victimization, index offences, and incidents during treatment was gathered from patient files. Risk factors for recidivism were assessed using the PCL-R and historical items of the HCR-20, including items from the new Female Additional Manual (FAM). Compared to non-BPD women, BPD women were more likely to have been abused as children and to have a history of outpatient treatment. While less likely to be convicted for (attempted) homicide, a higher percentage of BPD women was convicted for arson. Comorbid substance abuse was more frequent in the BPD group and incidents towards others and themselves were more violent in nature. The PCL-R and the H-scale of the HCR-20/FAM indicated several risk factors especially important for BPD women, such as poor behavioural control, impulsivity, and irresponsibility. The results support the clinical impression that women diagnosed with BPD are a subgroup within the female forensic psychiatric population, with specific focus points for treatment and management.     

Assessing Violence Risk in Stalking Cases: A Regression Tree Approach

Advances in the field of risk assessment have highlighted the importance of developing and validating models for problematic or unique subgroups of individuals. Stalking offenders represent one such subgroup, where fears of and potential for violence are well-known and have important implications for safety management. The present study applies a Classification and Regression Tree (CART) approach to a sample of stalking offenders in order to help further the process of identifying and understanding risk assessment strategies. Data from 204 stalking offenders referred for psychiatric evaluation to a publicly-funded clinic were used to develop and assess putative risk factors. A series of nested models were used to generate tree algorithms predicting violence in this sample of offenders. Both simplified and more extensive models generated high levels of predictive accuracy that were roughly comparable to logistic regression models but much more straightforward to apply in clinical practice. Jack-knifed cross-validation analyses demonstrated considerable shrinkage in the CART, although the models were still comparable to many other actuarial risk assessment instruments. Logistic regression models were much more resilient to cross-validation, with relatively modest loss in predictive power.     

Risk assessment for intimate partner violence: how can the police assess risk?

ABSTRACT

The use of risk assessment tools by frontline police for intimate partner violence has the potential to make a difference to policing. In this paper, the key aspects of intimate partner violence risk assessment are outlined critically with a particular emphasis on how they can be used in practice. Two, evidence-based, exemplars are reviewed. These are the Ontario Domestic Abuse Risk Assessment (ODARA), an example of the actuarial approach, and the Brief Spousal Assault Form for the Evaluation of Risk (B-SAFER), an example of the structured professional judgement approach. In addition, the victim giving his or her own appraisal of risk is discussed. All three approaches have some validity when administered properly but practical factors reduce this validity. The content of the risk assessment tools are outlined and practical concerns such as training, time to administer, reliability, validity, and the overlap of intimate partner violence with other forms of offending are discussed. A balanced overview of the strengths, weaknesses and future potential of intimate partner violence risk assessment is provided.     

Patient characteristics related to length of stay in Dutch forensic psychiatric care

Create an overview of characteristics of patients in long-term forensic psychiatric care (LFPC) with a higher length of stay (LOS) care compared to patients in regular forensic psychiatric care (RFPC) with a shorter LOS. Data were collected from 139 patient records. This study examined whether patients in LFPC differ from patients in RFPC on sociodemographic data, legal data and clinical data and whether those characteristics are able to predict LOS. Patients in LFPC were more often born in a Dutch Caribbean country, less often had a substance abuse disorder, were more often emotionally neglected during childhood, had a higher HCR-20 risk item score, a higher security needs score, a higher (less successful) recovery score, were more often recidivist and had absconded more often than RFPC patients. Certain characteristics were able to distinguish the longer LOS group which might be useful to establish sequel services and enhance treatment efficiency.     

Judging risk: key determinants in British domestic violence cases

Data from the largest study to date of the working practices of British victim support workers (known as Independent Domestic Violence Advisors or IDVAs) are used to provide insight into how "risk judgments" are made in cases of domestic violence. Using data from more than 2,000 victims, this study found a convergence between actuarial data and IDVAs' risk judgments when the risk score was high, but in cases with a lower risk score, IDVAs often used their professional judgment to upgrade risk. Next, we identified the specific factors underpinning IDVAs' risk judgments. Consistent with existing research, we found that IDVAs relied on a subset of available information when forming risk judgments, and characteristics of the abusive situation, such as the escalation of violence, use of weapons, stalking, and significant injuries, were particularly salient to them. Furthermore, IDVAs paid attention to victims' perceptions and when they felt very frightened or afraid of further injury then IDVAs were more likely to label them as high risk. Although we identified some encouraging overlap between the subset of factors informing risk judgments and those associated with victims' reabuse at a later date, some notable differences indicate a need for messages from research about the significance of particular risk factors to be reinforced to frontline practitioners on a regular basis.     

Violent girls in adolescent forensic care are more often psychotic and traumatized than boys in the same level of care

Background: Most research on violent perpetrators is based on male samples. Aims: To compare girls and boys admitted to an adolescent forensic unit due to physically violent and/or sexually coercive behavior. Methods: On an adolescent forensic ward, demographics, family, treatment, crime and victimization histories, diagnose, psychiatric symptoms and violent behaviors during care of all adolescents are collected in a cumulative database. These were compared between girls and boys admitted due to violent behaviors. Results: Girls were more often diagnosed with schizophrenia group psychoses. The symptom profiles and violence risk ratings did not differ by sex. The girls were less antisocial in general. They were more suicidal and displayed more promiscuous behaviors, and they had more commonly been victims of sexual abuse. During inpatient care they displayed much more often violent and uncontrollable behaviors than the boys. Conclusion: Treatment approaches that respond to the special needs of aggressive girls are required.     

Violent women: a multicentre study into gender differences in forensic psychiatric patients

To gain insight into the relatively small, but increasing group of women in forensic psychiatry, a retrospective multicentre study was started gathering information from the files of 275 female patients of four Dutch forensic psychiatric hospitals on characteristics and violence risk factors. Overall, a picture emerged of severely traumatized women with complex psychopathology with multiple previous treatment failures and many incidents during treatment. The present study investigates specific psychiatric and criminal characteristics of female patients by comparing their data to those of 275 male forensic psychiatric patients. Various prominent differences were found, for example, women had more complex histories of victimization, were more often diagnosed with borderline personality disorder, were more likely to commit homicide and arson and less likely to commit sexual offenses, and were more often involved in inpatient aggression than their male counterparts. Several recommendations for gender-responsive treatment and directions for future research are provided.     

Mental disorder in violent women in secure settings: Potential relevance to risk for future violence

The relevance to women of common violence risk factors identified in men has in many instances yet to be established. Consequently, there is a reluctance to accept without question the application to women of practices relating to violence risk assessment and management developed from research into men. This study examines mental disorder in women who are violent in order comment on its relevance to the practice of violence risk assessment and management. A sample of 95 violent women in high secure prison and forensic psychiatric care were assessed. Structured assessments of Axis I and II mental disorders and psychopathy were undertaken on all women and conviction histories were recorded. Very high levels of psychiatric morbidity were noted and patterns in comorbidity were detected. Among Axis I conditions, psychotic disorders and disorders of mood co-occurred at a very high rate. Among the Axis II conditions, dimensional ratings of borderline personality disorder (PD) correlated with dimensional ratings of avoidant, dependent and paranoid PDs while ratings of antisocial PD correlated with those of narcissistic, histrionic and obsessive–compulsive PDs. Women who had been incarcerated for a major violent offence were four times more likely to have a diagnosis of borderline PD than women whose index offence was one of minor violence. A number of the findings reported are in contrast to those reported in similar studies of men. Findings suggest that practitioners are right to question the application to women of knowledge derived from research into men. The practice of violence risk assessment and management with women should emphasise the development of individual risk formulations and responding to psychiatric comorbidity should be the rule rather than the exception with this population.     

159例家庭暴力损伤的法医学鉴定分析

目的　探讨家庭暴力损伤的特点及其有关的法医学鉴定问题。方法　对 1 998年 4月～ 1 999年 1 2月间来诊的 1 59例家庭暴力损伤鉴定案件进行回顾研究。结果　家庭暴力的受害者绝大多数为妇女(占 93 1 % ) ,主要发生在配偶间 ( 85 5% ) ,其次为虐老 ( 7 5% )和虐儿 ( 5% )。家庭暴力一般发生在家中 ,以晚上为发生高峰。致伤方式以拳脚为主 ,其次为随手可得的钝器或锐器。损伤多为软组织损伤 ;有4 0 %的受害人投诉前未去医院就诊 ;损伤程度多为轻微伤 ,达轻伤标准占 1 0 %。结论　家庭暴力损伤具有隐藏性和复杂性 ,准确及时地进行法医学鉴定可为受害人主张权利提供有力的证据和帮助 ,对揭露家庭犯罪有着重要意义     

Workplace Assessment of Targeted Violence Risk: The Development and Reliability of the WAVR‐21

This study describes the development of the WAVR‐21, a structured professional judgment guide for the assessment of workplace targeted violence, and presents initial interrater reliability results. The 21‐item instrument codes both static and dynamic risk factors and change, if any, over time. Five critical items or red flag indicators assess violent motives, ideation, intent, weapons skill, and pre‐attack planning. Additional items assess the contribution of mental disorder, negative personality factors, situational factors, and a protective factor. Eleven raters each rated 12 randomly assigned cases from actual files of workplace threat scenarios. Summary interrater reliability correlation coefficients (ICCs) for overall presence of risk factors, risk of violence, and seriousness of the violent act were in the fair to good range, similar to other structured professional judgment instruments. A subgroup of psychologists who were coders produced an ICC of 0.76 for overall presence of risk factors. Some of the individual items had poor reliability for both clinical and statistical reasons. The WAVR‐21 appears to improve the structuring and organizing of empirically based risk‐relevant data and may enhance communication and decision making.