Prospective Replication of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide in Predicting Violent Recidivism Among Forensic Patients

An exhaustive survey of a cohort of forensic patients provided an opportunity for a prospective replication of the predictive accuracy of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG). Data collected during the original survey also permitted a test of the predictive accuracy of clinical assessments of risk on the same cohort. The VRAG yielded a large effect size in predicting violent recidivism (ROC area = .80) over a constant 5-year follow-up and performed significantly better than averaged clinical opinions. The superiority of the VRAG was also observed at very short follow-up times and for very serious violence. Moreover, for 16 subsamples, observed rates of violent recidivism did not differ significantly from the expected rates. VRAG score was unrelated, and clinical judgments inversely related to violent recidivism in the small low-risk sample of female forensic patients. The authors conclude that, regardless of length of opportunity or severity of outcome, actuarial methods are more accurate than is clinical judgment.     

Static and Dynamic Patient Characteristics as Predictors of Criminal Recidivism: A Prospective Study in a Dutch Forensic Psychiatric Sample

If clinicians in forensic psychiatry want to reduce risk of reoffending in their patients, they require insight into dynamic risk factors, and evidence that these add predictive power to static risk indicators. Predictors need to be evaluated under clinically realistic circumstances. This study aimed to validate dynamic and static variables as predictors of reconviction in a naturalistic outcome study. Data on static and dynamic risk factors were collected for 151 patients discharged from Dutch forensic psychiatric hospitals. Community follow-up was prospective, with a 5.5 year minimum. A prediction model was developed using Cox regression analysis. The magnitude of the predictive power of this model was estimated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The final prediction model contained four static and no dynamic predictors. The model's ROC area under the curve was .79 (95% CI .69–.89). Clinical risk ratings were non-predictive. Post hoc analyses exploring the influence of subgroups of patients did not yield better models. It is concluded that a small set of static predictors yielded a good estimate of future reconvictions; inclusion of dynamic predictors did not add predictive power.     

Assessing the Risk of Domestic Violence Reoffending: A Validation Study

Little research has been conducted to validate available instruments for assessing the risk of domestic violence reoffending, especially research using some form of prospective design. This study uses a prospective design to determine the reliability and validity of the Domestic Violence Screening Instrument (DVSI). The analysis is based on a sample of 1,465 male domestic violence offenders selected consecutively over a 9-month period. Data on reoffending were collected in a 6-month follow-up period from a subsample of the victims (N = 125) of these perpetrators and from official records for all perpetrators during an 18-month follow-up period. The empirical results suggest that the DVSI was administered reliably, and they provide significant evidence of the concurrent, discriminant, and predictive validity of this instrument. Implications for further research and utilization of the DVSI are discussed.     

暴力危险量表中文版的信度

目的引入、修订具有评估暴力危险及危险变化的暴力危险量表(Violence Risk Scale,VRS),对修订后的暴力危险量表中文版(VRS-C)进行信度检验。方法通过标准的翻译程序形成VRS-C,3位评估者独立评估14个案例以检验评分者信度,以125例来自成都安康医院监管病区、四川华西法医学鉴定中心法医精神病学教研室及华西心理卫生中心的精神疾病患者为被试,对VRS-C的信度进行检验。结果初步修订的VRS-C具有较好的评分者信度(ICC=0.80)、同质性信度(克朗巴赫α系数=0.921)、分半信度(0.906)及题总相关性(0.246～0.849)。结论初步修订的VRS-C具有较好的信度。     

Examining the Science and Practice of Violence Risk Assessment with Female Adolescents

While the field of violence risk assessment among adult males has progressed rapidly, several questions remain with respect to the application of forensic risk assessment tools within other populations. In this article, we consider the empirical evidence for the assessment, prediction, and management of violence in adolescent girls. We discuss limitations of generalizing violence risk assessment findings from other populations to adolescent girls and point out areas where there is little or no empirical foundation. Critical issues that must be addressed in research prior to the adoption or rejection of such instruments are delineated. Finally, we provide practice guidelines for clinicians currently involved with adolescent females within risk assessment contexts.     

Predictive validity of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) during residential treatment

This prospective study examines the predictive validity of the Dutch version of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) by examining relationships between SAVRY scores and various types of disruptive behavior during residential treatment. The SAVRY, a risk assessment instrument, was coded for 66 male adolescents on the basis of file information and interviews. The adolescents were referred to Rentray, a juvenile correctional and treatment facility, by the Dutch juvenile courts because of severe behavioral problems or serious offenses. Institutional infractions were retrieved from incident registration files, which included acts of physical violence, verbal threat, verbal abuse, and violation of institutional rules. The interrater reliability of the SAVRY scores was good. The predictive validity of the SAVRY for physical violence against persons was excellent (Risk Total: AUC=.80, r =.33; Summery Risk Rating: AUC =.86, r =.48). The SAVRY also had good predictive validity for violence against objects, verbal threats and violations of rules, but not for verbal abuse. Implications for assessment and management of violent behavior among adolescents in residential treatment are discussed.     

Integrating DSM-IV Factors to Predict Violence in High-Risk Psychiatric Patients

Abstract:  This study incorporated Axis-II and Axis-IV factors in DSM-IV to test the relationship between predicted risk for violence assessed in the psychiatric emergency room and actual violence during hospitalization. Psychiatric nurses lack an objective instrument to use during the acute psychiatric assessment. The retrospective study comprised consecutive psychiatric admissions ( n  = 161) in one tertiary veterans' hospital. Statistical testing for the predictive power of risk factors, relationships between variables, and violent events included nonparametric tests, factor analysis, and logistic regression. Of the 32 patients who committed violence during hospitalization, 12 had committed violence in the psychiatric emergency room. Statistical significance was shown for violent incidents and dementia, court-ordered admission, mood disorder, and for three or more risk factors. The 13-item Risk of Violence Assessment (ROVA) scale suggests validity and sensitivity for rating DSM-IV factors and psychosocial stressors to predict risk for violence during hospitalization. Replication studies are recommended to strengthen validity of the ROVA scale.     

The Relationship Between Confidence and Accuracy in Clinical Assessment of Psychiatric Patients' Potential for Violence

The authors studied the relationship between confidence and accuracy in clinical assessments of psychiatric patients' short-term risk of violence. At the time of entry to the hospital, physicians (N = 78) estimated the probability that each of 317 patients would physically attack other people during the first week of psychiatric hospitalization. The clinicians also indicated the degree of confidence they had in their estimates of violence potential. Nurses rated the occurrence of inpatient physical assaults with the Overt Aggression Scale. The results showed that when clinicians had a high degree of confidence, their evaluations of risk of violence were strongly associated with whether or not patients became violent. At moderate levels of confidence, clinicians' risk estimates had a lower, but still substantial relationship with the later occurrence of violence. However, when clinicians had low confidence, their assessments of potential for violence had little relationship to whether or not the patients became violent. The findings suggest that the level of confidence that clinicians have in their evaluations is an important moderator of the predictive validity of their assessments of patients' potential for violence.     

Assessing the Generalization of Psychopathy in a Clinical Sample of Domestic Violence Perpetrators

This study proposed that domestic violence perpetrators in a clinical sample could be categorized into distinct subgroups and that a particular subgroup of batterers would exhibit sufficient psychopathic characteristics to be clinically meaningful. Participants were interviewed in order to gather a relevant social, familial, educational, criminal, and substance abuse history. They were then administered several psychological measures including the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV). Results lent support to the empirical batterer typology identified by Holtzworth-Munroe, A., Meehan, J. C., Herron, K., Rehman, U., & Stuart, G. L. (2000). However, despite the presence of a more antisocial subgroup, psychopathy did not consistently differentiate among batterers across the measured dependent variables.     

The Criminogenic,Clinical, and Social Problems of Forensic and Civil Psychiatric Patients

Forensic psychiatric patients consume an increasing proportion of mental health resources in Canada and the United States. To inform mental health policy and practice, we compared the criminogenic, clinical, and social problems of forensic patients to those of civilly committed psychiatric patients in two Canadian studies. We predicted that forensic patients would score higher on criminogenic problems and lower on clinical and social problems than civil patients in two studies: one comparing 83 forensic and 189 civil inpatients on a clinician-completed form, the Resident Assessment Instrument--Mental Health, at an urban mental health center, and the second comparing 423 forensic and 178 civil patients assessed at different times using the Patient Problem Survey. The two studies were quite similar in their findings, despite differences in their samples, measures, and data collection methods. In both studies, forensic patients were similar to or lower than civil psychiatric patients in all criminogenic, clinical, and social problems. We conclude that forensic mental health services would benefit greatly by drawing from knowledge accumulated in the general psychiatric literature. This finding also supports the idea that many forensic patients can be appropriately diverted to nonforensic mental health services.     

The Impact of Marital Aggression on Women's Psychological and Marital Functioning in a Newlywed Sample

The impact of husband-to-wife physical aggression on changes in wives' personal and marital well-being was examined in a representative sample of newlywed couples. The sample consisted of couples who completed baseline (time of marriage) and first anniversary assessments as part of the Buffalo Newlywed Study (n = 543). After controlling for sociodemographic variables, initial relationship satisfaction, and verbal aggression, wives who experienced physical aggression from their husbands during the first year of marriage reported increased stress and lower marital satisfaction at the first anniversary. Further, they were more likely to report separation from husbands due to marital problems during the first year of marriage. Experiences of partner physical aggression during the premarital period were associated with greater frequency of heavy drinking episodes among wives, although they were not associated with changes in average daily volume of ethanol consumed. Results suggest that among a community sample, experiences of husband-to-wife physical aggression have negative consequences for both women's psychological well-being and marital functioning.     

The Incidence and Impact of Family Violence on Mental Health Among South Korean Women: Results of a National Survey

This representative national survey examined incidence of husband-to-wife violence in the past year, lifetime exposure to parental violence, and the relationships between victimization experiences of family violence and mental health among South Korean women (N = 1,079). The major findings were that incidence rate of husband-to-wife violence among Korean women was 29.5%, which was much higher than those of other nations, and that their experiences of physical violence by husbands in the last year and lifetime verbal abuse by parents had strong associations with the mental health of victims. The findings suggest that preventive intervention programs for male perpetrators as well as domestic violence victims with mental health problems and comprehensive interventions for Korean couples are urgently needed. In addition, parents should be educated about how to modify their children’s behavior without physical punishment or verbal abuse.

A Comparison of Men and Women Arrested for Domestic Violence: Who Presents the Greater Threat?

Recent increases in the number of women arrested for domestic violence raise important questions about implementation of proarrest policies, equivalency of intimate partner aggression across genders, and management of female domestic violence offenders. This study compares demographic characteristics, criminal history variables, and the past domestic violence history of men (n = 5,578) and women (n = 1,126) arrested for domestic assault against a heterosexual intimate partner. Using victim reported information and data collected by local criminal justice agencies, we found that female arrestees were significantly less likely than males to have histories that warrant concern regarding the potential for future violence. Implications of these findings are discussed.     

Risk and Protective Factors for Recurrent Intimate Partner Violence in a Cohort of Low-Income Inner-City Women

The purpose of this study was to identify longitudinal predictors of any (versus no) episodes of recurrent intimate partner violence (IPV) and their severity among low-income inner-city women. A secondary analysis was conducted on data from an inception cohort of 321 previously abused women from the Chicago Women’s Health Risk Study. In a multivariable logistic regression model, pregnancy, frequency of IPV in the year prior to the baseline interview, and the partner’s use of power and control tactics increased the odds of recurrent IPV during the follow-up period and leaving an abusive partner reduced the odds. In a multivariate proportional odds logistic regression model, partner violence outside the home was associated with higher severity of recurrent IPV, but leaving an abusive partner was not. The results suggest that, for low-income women, leaving an abusive partner may reduce the risk of recurrent victimization without increasing severity of the recurrent attacks that do occur.     

Clinically Significant Trauma Symptoms and Behavioral Problems in a Community-based Sample of Children Exposed to Domestic Violence

This study assessed the associations of characteristics of domestic violence incidents with clinically significant levels of traumatic symptoms and behavioral problems in a socio-economically and ethnically mixed sample of 687 children participating in a community-service program for children witnessing violence. Study predictors included child/family demographic characteristics, type and chronicity of exposure, and child’s perceptions of control over the event and threat to personal safety. Outcomes consisted of traumatic symptoms and behavior problems. Results showed that perceived threat and control were associated with greater odds of clinically significant levels of several trauma symptoms (and behavior problems in the case of perceived threat) after adjusting for effects of demographic factors and violence characteristics. Child co-victimization increased odds of reaching clinically significant levels of traumatic symptoms compared to children who witnessed the event but were not victimized. Female sex and White ethnicity increased odds of specific trauma symptoms and behavior problems. Increasing age reduced odds of some trauma symptoms. Associations between predictors and one outcome measure did not generalize across the other outcome measure. Implications of study findings, and directions for future research are discussed.     

Intimate Partner Violence and Psychological Health in a Sample of Asian and Caucasian Women: The Roles of Social Support and Coping

This study examined the potential mediating effects of social support and coping strategies on the relationship between intimate partner violence (IPV) and psychological outcomes. A sample of 100 Caucasian women and 61 Asian women were recruited from domestic violence agencies. Structural equation modeling was used to test the proposed model. Analysis of the combined group revealed that there was an indirect effect of the level of violence on psychological outcomes via the mediating variables of perceived social support and passive coping strategies. Ethnic group comparisons, however, indicated differences between Caucasian and Asian women. In the Caucasian group, the level of violence had an indirect effect on psychological outcomes via the mediating variables of perceived social support and passive coping strategies. In contrast, in the Asian group, the direct effect of the level of violence on psychological outcomes was strong and significant, and the mediating roles of these variables were not found. Research implications for practice are delineated. This study was funded by the Institute on Domestic Violence and Sexual Assault (IDVSA) at the University of Texas at Austin.     

Gender Differences in the Impact of Family of Origin Violence on Perpetrators of Domestic Violence

This study examines the applicability of theories related to the intergenerational transmission of violence. Studies of the impact of violence in the family of origin on the propensity to engage in domestic violence as an adult have commonly focused on boys as potential perpetrators. This study examined the impact of previous violent victimization on males and females charged with domestic violence perpetration, finding previous violence significantly related to increased fear and hyper-vigilance to threat in adult relationships. In addition, the study explored the theoretical assertion that those who use violence in their homes are not also generally violent and found that the majority of individuals using violence, both males and females, were not violent outside the home.     

Predictive Validity of the SVR-20 and Static-99 in a Dutch Sample of Treated Sex Offenders

In this retrospective study, the interrater reliability and predictive validity of 2 risk assessment instruments for sexual violence are presented. The SVR-20, an instrument for structured professional judgment, and the Static-99, an actuarial risk assessment instrument, were coded from file information of 122 sex offenders who were admitted to a Dutch forensic psychiatric hospital between 1974 and 1996 (average follow-up period 140 months). Recidivism data (reconvictions) from the Ministry of Justice were related to the risk assessments. The base rate for sexual recidivism was 39%, for nonsexual violent offenses 46%, and for general offenses 74%. Predictive validity of the SVR-20 was good (total score: r = .50, AUC = .80; final risk judgment: r = .60, AUC = .83), of the Static-99 moderate (total score: r = .38, AUC =.71; risk category: r = .30, AUC = .66). The SVR-20 final risk judgment was a significantly better predictor of sexual recidivism than the Static-99 risk category.     

The Impact of Officer and Agency Characteristics on the Likelihood of Arrest in Domestic Violence Situations among Rural Law Enforcement Officers

Domestic violence cuts across all demographic groups. The factors related to why police officers arrest in some domestic violence situations but not others have been often studied. Little research, however, has been conducted on the arrest views of rural police officers. One hundred seventy line officers in six rural Midwestern counties were surveyed to determine the impact of officer personal characteristics and agency type on arrest decisions in various hypothetical domestic violence scenarios. First, the same situational factors appeared to be important in shaping the arrest decision in domestic violence calls of rural officers as have previously been found with urban officers. Second, the characteristics of officers and the type of agency had some impact on the likelihood of arrest, particularly if there was evidence of a physical assault. Third, the presence of evidence of a physical assault helped shape the arrest decisions of rural officers. Fourth, situational factors were more important than officer characteristics and the type of agency. Nancy Hogan and Shannon Barton contributed equally to the paper. The authors thank Janet Lambert for editing and proofreading the paper. The authors also thank the anonymous reviewers for their comments and suggestions.     

论独立性对司法会计鉴定风险的控制

在我国经济自由程度不断深入的趋势下,司法会计尤其是司法会计鉴定在解决经济纠纷与案件中的作用就显得越来越突出了。这就要求我们的司法会计鉴定更加规范化、程序化,为社会主义法治建设提供必要的保障。本文重点讨论独立性在司法会计鉴定风险控制中的应用。