Vote splitting as insurance against uncertainty

The present article offers a rational choice explanation for political ticket splitting. It considers a game-theoretic model of voting and bargaining within Congress and between Congress and the president. When parties are ideologically oriented and voters' utilities are state dependent, the model shows that if there is uncertainty about the true state of the world, ticket splitting emerges as a tool risk-averse voters use in order to insure themselves against extreme policies in bad states of nature.     

在分散与统一之间——美国食品安全监管事权划分探析

美国食品安全事权划分,在形式上呈现分散特征,联邦层面有十多个机构参与食品监管事务,州、地方、部落、领地有3000多个独立的监管机构来保障本地食品安全,这种分散特征主要是由美国的宪政体制、权力结构的分散性和政策输出的不确定性造成的。但在实际运行过程中,各监管机构之间通过正式的和非正式的协调活动,彼此之间分享了权力,共享了食品安全监管标准,达到了一定的统一性。我国食品安全事权划分可在明晰监管机构间的责任、保持事权划分稳定性以培养专业能力、建立倒金字塔式的监管任务结构方面借鉴美国的经验。     

Bargaining and Learning While Fighting

Much of the existing formal work on war models the decision to go to war as a game-ending, costly lottery. This article relaxes this assumption by treating war as a costly process during which the states run the risk of military collapse. The model also allows for uncertainty over either the cost of fighting or the distribution of power. The analysis makes four contributions to the growing costly-process literature: (i) the present model provides a more general treatment of the learning process that occurs when states are uncertain about the distribution of power, (ii) it explicitly compares the bargaining and learning processes for the two different sources of uncertainty, (iii) it suggests a way to empirically distinguish wars arising from these two sources, and (iv) it shows that the equilibrium dynamics of informational accounts of war may be quite sensitive to the underlying bargaining environment through which information is conveyed .     

Fiscal Reaction to State Aid Uncertainties: Evidence from New York State

Late budgets have become increasingly present across the states and especially persistent in states such as New York and California. The combination of delayed states budgets and institutional constraints may trigger specific budgetary strategies. Uncertainty over state aid may lead school districts to over‐ or underestimate school budgets, which ultimately may have an effect on real property taxes and the amount of education consumed. Evidence from New York State school districts suggests that school districts react to uncertainty in the state budget through a combination of revenue, expenditure, and fund balance changes. The findings suggest that districts engage in “gaming” the institutional constraints, and tend to build up large fund balances as a response to perceived uncertainty.     

Foreign Aid,Democratization, and Civil Conflict: How Does Democracy Aid Affect Civil Conflict?

It has been suggested that democratizing states are prone to civil wars. However, not all democratizing states experience domestic political violence. We argue that one of the key factors that “shelters” some democratizing states from domestic political violence is the receipt of democracy aid. Democratizing states that receive high levels of democracy assistance are less likely to experience civil conflict than countries that receive little or no external democracy assistance. During democratic transitions, the central authority weakens and uncertainty about future political commitments and promises among domestic groups increases. Democracy aid decreases the risk of conflict by reducing commitment problems and uncertainty. Using an instrumental variables approach that accounts for potential endogeneity problems in aid allocation, we find empirical support for our argument. We conclude that there is a potential path to democracy that ameliorates the perils of democratization, and democracy assistance programs can play a significant positive role in this process.     

Politics and the Limits of a Science of Governance: Some Reflections on the Thought of Bernard Crick

This paper examines Bernard Crick's ideas on the nature of politics and explores their implications for a scientific approach to governance like that advocated recently by public management writers. It is argued here that such an approach generally downplays the inherently political character of governance because it ignores the conflicts of values and the uncertainty that are an inherent part of the way in which we have come to govern ourselves.     

Organizing for Crisis Management: Building Governance Capacity and Legitimacy

What makes a well‐functioning governmental crisis management system, and how can this be studied using an organization theory–based approach? A core argument is that such a system needs both governance capacity and governance legitimacy. Organizational arrangements as well as the legitimacy of government authorities will affect crisis management performance. A central argument is that both structural features and cultural context matter, as does the nature of the crisis. Is it a transboundary crisis? How unique is it, and how much uncertainty is associated with it? The arguments are substantiated with empirical examples and supported by a literature synthesis, focusing on public administration research. A main conclusion is that there is no optimal formula for harmonizing competing interests and tensions or for overcoming uncertainty and ambiguous government structures. Flexibility and adaptation are key assets, which are constrained by the political, administrative, and situational context. Furthermore, a future research agenda is indicated.     

JOBS Implementation in 1991: The Progress of Ten States

The Job Opportunities and Basic Skills Training Program (JOBS),enacted by the Family Support Act of 1988, provides an arrayof services intended to increase the earning capacity and labor-forceparticipation of welfare recipients. Because the law gives statesdiscretion in creating JOBS programs, a ten-state, three-yearstudy of JOBS implementation is under way. During federal fiscalyear 1991, the first year in which all states must operate JOBS,most of the ten states made incremental changes to the programsthey had in place before JOBS. They designed their programsto be flexible enough to cope with uncertainty about the typesand availability of service components. As a group, they spentenough to draw down 43 percent of their federal JOBS funds.To obtain education, training, and employment services, statewelfare agencies are contracting with many organizations. Moststate welfare agencies are also obtaining resourcesfrom otheragencies without payment. Although states generally implementedJOBS with little fanfare, they all planned to meet the federalmandates for program participation and targeting of expendituresin 1991.     

Steering through Complexity: EU Environmental Regulation in the International Context

The nature of governance in the European Union (EU) and its member states is continuing to evolve as the EU develops. This paper focuses on the challenges to this governance process in the sector of environmental policy, and particularly the role of external organizations and states in providing alternate policy fora. The policy impact of these institutions and organizations leads to more actor participation in a way that EU players may not be able to anticipate or control since the EU is only one of several arenas involved. Both states and non-governmental actors actively seek to shift issues to arenas that provide them advantages. Consequently, developments in other arenas shape and are shaped by EU issues as actors pursue forum shopping. The paper presents two cases, the amendment of the Basel Convention to ban hazardous wastes export and the EU regulation of chemical risk, which demonstrate how external players can shape EU regulation.     

Emerging technologies and problem definition uncertainty: The case of cybersecurity

For governments to regulate, they must first define the problem and decide which policymakers have the authority to make decisions. Technological development can disrupt the authority-allocation process by fostering uncertainty about which actors are responsible for making policy. This article examines the role that changing technology has played in the development of cybersecurity policy in the United States. New technologies have increased the type and scope of assets vulnerable to cyberthreats, and with them the number of governing units who can claim jurisdiction over cybersecurity-related issues. Uncertainty about the nature of the problem has led the U.S. Congress to rely heavily on bureaucratic witnesses and focus on how existing regulations can be brought to bear. Emerging technologies create regulatory challenges for governance not only through unforeseen consequences but through uncertainty over who can regulate. Fragmented authority can produce piecemeal responses and a reliance on existing frameworks that benefit regulated industries.     

Identities of Competitive States in U.S. Presidential Elections: Electoral College Bias or Candidate-Centered Politics?

When discussing the biases of the U.S. Electoral College, researchersconclude that competitive states seem to occur randomly withoutany explanation. This study examines the consistency with whichthe same states have been competitive in presidential electionsfrom 1824 to 2000. It also identifies "spectator" states. Spectatorstates are those that have not been competitive for ten presidentialelections in a row. A statistical analysis illustrates thatthe identities of competitive states have become more unpredictable.In addition, few states have been spectators for long periods.In terms of representation, the facts that competitive statesare not consistent and that there are few spectators mean differentstates are in the presidential spotlight at different times.As opposed to any biases associated with the Electoral College,the changes in consistency coincide with the rise of candidate-centeredpolitics and decreasing voter loyalty to parties. The highlychangeable nature of competitive states strengthens the federalismargument for continuation of the Electoral College.     

Directionality Theory: Neo-organicism and Dialectical Complexity

In this paper I shall examine the evolution of directionality theory expressed as organicist, dialectical approaches to the nature of reality and conclude with an assessment of its newly expressed form, that of complexity theory. In the history of ideas before complexity theory, Hegelian philosophy came closest to providing a systematic, organicist and evolutionary approach to the comprehension of life as a complex adaptive system moving in a particular direction and of knowledge as a conceptual complement of the achievements of self-organised physical and biological evolution. In the work of Murray Bookchin, we find a neo-Hegelian iteration of the directionality thesis expressed as the theory of dialectical naturalism. Beyond Bookchin, in the last few decades we have seen the emergence of new ways of understanding complex systems. Complexity theorists have provided novel insights into the way complex systems evolve and produce increasing states of complexity and diversity. I shall argue that these new insights provide important links to the directionality tradition of Aristotle and Hegel. However, the elements of chance and uncertainty within complexity theory are at odds with the more deterministic aspects of dialectical naturalism. The tensions between these two perspectives shall be resolved through the synthesis of dialectical complexity.     

不信任文化中的非人格化管理——匿名评审、年龄界限与一刀切现象的综合分析

匿名评审、年龄界限和一刀切三种现象看似毫不相关,但是其内涵却存在着一种共性,即凭借一种貌似客观的技术、数字和理性规则来实行管理,希望以此来克服管理过程中个人主观因素和其他不确定因素的影响.这种管理模式可以称之为非人格化管理,它产生于不信任文化的背景之上,相信技术而不相信个人的能动判断.这种管理模式落后于民主化和人性化的社会进程,必须用一种信任管理模式来替代它,重构和谐、创造、能动的管理关系.信任管理以人为中心,强调负责任的个人对公共政策的主动执行;信任管理是充分授权的管理,并不是完全依赖技术的控制力来实现集权化从上到下的管制;信任管理也是开放的管理机制,吸收环境中的支持力和压力要素,与环境展开积极的互动.信任管理是和谐社会的管理机制.     

Controlling partners and proxies in pro-insurgency paramilitary operations: the case of Syria

Pro-insurgency paramilitary operations (PMOs) are a rare type of covert action that aim to destabilize or overthrow a hostile government or defeat nonstate groups with no cooperation from a host government. The article analyzes US covert operations in Syria since 2011 by applying Principal–Agent Theory (PAT) to explain the inherent difficulties involved in controlling partner states and proxies. The nature of pro-insurgency PMOs is such that main tasks have to be delegated to partners and proxies, which reduces the ability of the US government to achieve desirable outcomes, especially whenever the goals of the partners and proxies are not well-aligned with US objectives as is the case in Syria.     

The Political Consequences of the Crash

The financial crash of 2008 precipitated a major recession. It shattered the financial growth model that had dominated the previous twenty years and plunged the international economy into a period of economic and political restructuring of uncertain duration. The immediate origins of the crash lay in the lending practices associated with the sub-prime mortgages in the United States which produced the credit crunch in 2007, but the wider causes were the unbalanced character of growth in the international economy and the particular role played by finance. The crisis has been explained in a number of different ways, focusing on the behaviour of the financial markets, the institutional and policy conditions that made the boom possible and then undermined it, longer-term economic and policy cycles and the nature of uncertainty and risk in complex social systems. The political impact of the crash and the recession has not been uniform; it has been highly uneven, depending on the position of particular states in the international economy. The rapid interventions by governments to stave off financial collapse at the end of 2008 were successful, but at the cost of creating serious problems of adjustment for the future. The political debate around what were the causes, who should be blamed and what should be done is only just beginning, and the way this crisis comes to be understood will play a major part in determining how it is eventually resolved and how far-reaching will be the changes to the international economy and to domestic politics.     

Understanding the Challenge of China’s Rise: Fixing Conceptual Confusion about Intentions

Journal of Chinese Political Science - What are intentions and how should states decipher them? For scholars, the debate about uncertainty and intentions lies at the heart of international...     

India and the US as enduring global partners: An assessment

This paper examines the nature of India and the US relations. The relations between two the states have improved in the post?/11 era. The willingness of the US to provide India political support at the regional and global level is one aspect that resulted in changing the nature of that relationship. Second, growing defense ties both in conventional and nonconventional sectors fundamentally galvanized the nature of that relationship. This paper further analyzes the geopolitical compulsion of both states to counter various state and non‐state actors' threats such as China's increasing maritime presence in the Indian Ocean region and terrorism. Moreover, this discussion argues about the political, strategic, commercial aspects of the strategic partnership till date. Much part of this paper analyzes what is the nature of this relationship and how it developed?     

Interbranch Negotiations over Policies with Multiple Outcomes

Whereas presidents represent the entire nation, members of Congress serve districts and states. Consequently, presidents and members of Congress often disagree not only about the merits of different policies but also about the criteria used to assess them. To investigate the relevance of jurisdictional?and by extension criterial?differences for policymaking, we revisit classic models of bargaining under uncertainty. Rather than define uncertainty about the mapping of one policy into one outcome, as all previous scholars have done, we allow for every policy to generate two politically relevant outcomes, one local and another national. We then identify equilibria in which the president's utility is increasing in the value that a representative legislator assigns to national outcomes. As an application of this theory, we analyze budgetary politics in war and peace. We find that during periods of war, when members of Congress assign greater importance to the very same national outcomes that preoccupy presidents, congressional appropriations more closely reflect presidential proposals.     

Legislative Capacity and Credit Risk

Legislatures differ in their institutional capacity to draft and enact policy. While strong legislatures can increase the congruence of policy outcomes to the electorate's preferences, they can also inject uncertainty into markets with their ability to alter the political economic landscape. We argue that this uncertainty will manifest in a state's ability to borrow and hypothesize a negative relationship between legislative capacity and creditworthiness. Using ratings of general obligation bonds issued by the American states over nearly two decades and data on the institutional capacity of state legislative assemblies, we find support for the claim that having a legislature that is better equipped to affect policy change increases credit risk evaluations. The results we present broaden our understanding of the importance of legislative institutions, the determinants of credit risk, and the economic implications of democratic responsiveness.     

Learning under Uncertainty: Networks in Crisis Management

This article examines learning in networks dealing with conditions of high uncertainty. The author examines the case of a crisis response network dealing with an exotic animal disease outbreak. The article identifies the basic difficulties of learning under crisis conditions. The network had to learn most of the elements taken for granted in more mature structural forms—the nature of the structural framework in which it was working, how to adapt that framework, the role and actions appropriate for each individual, and how to deal with unanticipated problems. The network pursued this learning in a variety of ways, including virtual learning, learning forums, learning from the past, using information systems and learning from other network members. Most critically, the network used standard operating procedures to provide a form of network memory and a command and control structure to reduce the institutional and strategic uncertainty inherent in networks.