The Impact of State Rainy Day Funds in Easing State Fiscal Crises During the 1990–1991 Recession

This article examines the degree to which rainy day funds eased the fiscal stress experienced by states during the 1990–1991 recession. In the first section, a state fiscal policy of neutrality over the business cycle is used as a benchmark for evaluating the use of budget stabilization funds. The next section looks at data from the last three recessions to see how recessions have affected the taxes and expenditures of states. A measure of degree of fiscal stress experienced by each state during the 1990–1991 recession is then calculated. These results are used to empirically investigate the impact of explicit state rainy day funds in easing state fiscal stress. Next, the article examines whether states that had rainy day funds in 1989 were more likely to have less fiscal stress, and whether the specific deposit and withdrawal provisions of these funds made a difference.     

Do supermajority rules limit or enhance majority tyranny? evidence from the US States, 1960–1997

Buchanan and Tullock (1962) demonstrates that supermajority rules can reduce tyranny of majority problems in a democracy. However, recent theoretical work by Dixit, Grossman, and Gul (2000) postulates that this static analysis of supermajority rules may be inadequate to explain political decisions in a dynamic setting. In fact, supermajority rules may increase the incidence of majority tyranny because of rotating political representation. Using data from US state legislatures we examine the effect of supermajority rules on different categories of government expenditures and tax revenues during the latter half of the 20th century. We find supermajority rules have little effect on general government expenditures and tax revenues. However, supermajority rules are associated with lower public welfare transfers, which supports the traditional analysis of the fiscal effects of supermajority rules.     

Interdependenz und ideologische position: Die konditionale Diffusion der Zigarettenbesteuerung in den US-amerikanischen Bundesstaaten 1971–2006

This paper inquires into the interdependence of cigarette taxation in the US states between 1971 and 2006. It is argued that diffusion influences emanating from the tax policies of other states have an effect that is conditional upon the government ideology in a focal state. Specifically, it is shown that only those state governments that are not positioned on the far right end of an ideology continuum use an environment of high cigarette taxes to pursue their fiscal and health policy goals. At the same time, interventionist ideology can only be effective if it operates within a favorable policy environment. I argue that casting policy diffusion as conditional allows for empirically more accurate and theoretically richer models.     

Determinants of the probability and timing of commercial casino legalization in the United States

The adoption of lotteries by state governments has received significant attention in the economics literature, but the issue of casino adoption has been neglected by researchers. Casino gambling is a relatively new industry in the United States, outside Nevada and New Jersey. As of 2007, 11 states had established commercial casinos; several more states are considering legalization. We analyze the factors that determine a state’s decision to legalize commercial casinos, using data from 1985 to 2000, a period which covers the majority of states that have adopted commercial casinos. We use a tobit model to examine states’ fiscal conditions, political alignments, intrastate and interstate competitive environments, and demographic characteristics, which yields information on the probability and timing of adoptions. The results suggest a public choice explanation that casino legalization is due to state fiscal stress, to efforts to keep gambling revenues (and the concomitant gambling taxes) within the state, and to attract tourism or “export taxes.”     

Fiscal Capacity and Tax Effort of the American States: Trends and Issues

The author examines the historic context of state taxing power and fiscal capacity, and the current efforts of the U.S. Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations to measure fiscal capacity and tax effort using a Representative Tax System (RTS). The two most commonly used methods of distributing federal aid to states are population and personal income, both incomplete measures of fiscal capacity. RTS estimates how much revenue each state and its localities would raise if it levied the national average tax rate for commonly used state and local taxes. The author considers the strengths and weakness of RTS as a measure of fiscal capacity and examines state rankings and trends since 1975.     

Preventing Local Government Fiscal Crises: Emerging Best Practices

What type of oversight should states exercise over local units in order to prevent fiscal crises? This article discusses a sequence of three best practices that some states use to prevent fiscal emergencies. They first monitor local government finances to predict fiscal distress. After detecting signs of fiscal distress, states actively assist local units in ameliorating the problem. Finally, assistance notwithstanding, if a situation becomes grave, states require local units to take strong remedial measures, including increasing taxes and reducing expenditures.     

Ranking state fiscal structures using theory and evidence

This paper offers unique rankings of the extent to which fiscal structures of U.S. states contribute to economic growth. The rankings are novel in two key respects: They are well grounded in established growth theory, in which the effect of taxes depends both on the level of taxes and on the composition of expenditures; and they are derived from actual estimates of the link between fiscal structures and economic growth. Estimates for the latter yield a growth hill, in which the incremental effect of taxes spent on productive services and infrastructure initially rises, reaches a peak, and then declines. Rankings derived from these estimates differ sharply from typical rankings based on levels of taxation alone. Two hypothetical policy experiments highlight both the growth‐hill effects of tax investments in productive services and infrastructure and the short‐ and long‐term tradeoffs in attempting to fund strong social services. © 2008 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

State Sales Tax Policy in a Changing Economy: Balancing Political and Economic Logic Against Revenue Needs

Soon after implementation in the 1930s, the general sales taxes emerged as the largest state tax source. In 1990, income taxes produced nearly as much state revenue as did sales taxes. Although income tax revenue have increased significantly, the sales tax is not in jeopardy of being replaced in the immediate future. The sales tax still remains a vital state fiscal concern, particularly to those states without a broad individual income tax.     

Property Tax Responses to State Aid Cuts in the Recent Fiscal Crisis

Many states experienced fiscal crises at the beginning of this decade. Some responded by cutting state aid to local governments. This paper explores the extent to which local governments responded to these aid cuts by raising property taxes. The authors hypothesize that changes in aid help explain the observed differences in per capita property tax revenue changes across states. They find that on average school districts increased property taxes by 23 cents for each dollar cut in state aid. These results highlight the important role that the property tax plays in maintaining the stability of the state and local sector.     

State Fiscal Strategies for the 1990s: Balancing Budgets in a Recession

The fiscal crunch facing many states in FY 1991 has its rootsin the recession, federal mandates, election-year politics,and rapid growth in spending for Medicaid and corrections. Southernand midwestern states that made drastic cuts in response tothe 1981–1982 recession have fared relatively well, butstates in the Northeast have faced tax increases, layoffs, cutsin services, and prolonged conflict over state budgets. Althoughthe tax revolt has not led to appreciably lower taxes, it hasmade raising taxes more difficult, and has heralded a shiftto "boutique government," which may create further fiscal problemsin the long run. State tax increases and spending cutbacks mayalso delay recovery from the recession.     

The Impact of Tax Revenue from Capital Gains Realizations on State Income Tax Revenue and Budget Conditions

We explore the effect of the rapid increase in capital gains realizations on state income tax revenue during the 1990s and 2000s, and the effect that this had on state fiscal decisions regarding the use of these revenue. We find wide variation in the growth of capital gains realizations across states and that the growth in capital gains had a significant effect on state income tax revenue for many states. We find that states used a sizable portion of the additional revenue from capital gains to fund reserves in the year the revenue was generated, and that capital gains revenue lead to some reductions in taxes but not to increases in expenditures. The evidence suggests that states were conservative in their use of capital gains related revenues.     

President Clinton's Fiscal 1998 Budget: Political and Constitutional Paths to Balance

This article examines President Clinton's FY 98 budget proposals and the political and economic factors that led to the balanced budget agreement. Also explored are the constitutional approaches to fiscal discipline: the balanced budget amendment, the tax supermajority amendment, and the line item veto that was used 80 times by President Clinton to delete over a billion dollars. The analysis reveals that budget bargaining was continuous before and after the budget agreement was reached, moving downward from decisions on macro-budgetary totals to micro-budgetary choices on tax cuts and appropriations. The study concludes that President Clinton was relatively successful in achieving budgetary goals under divided government, that the agreement was significant despite the economic growth that made it easier, and that constitutional remedies will continue to be important in the coming years.     

Legislative term limits and state spending

Supporters of legislative term limits often claim that they will lower state spending levels. Using fiscal data from 48 states from 1977 to 2001, this paper finds little support for this assertion. Instead, this analysis finds that states with term limits have higher spending levels than states without term limits. These results suggest that term limits give legislators greater incentives to deviate from socially optimal fiscal policy by altering the legislative environment in which such policy is formulated.     

Developing and Testing a Composite Model to Predict Local Fiscal Distress

One of the thorniest issues of intergovernmental fiscal relations is state oversight of local fiscal affairs. States have oversight responsibility and must take action when local governments run afoul of responsible fiscal behavior. Less accepted is how states can detect local financial difficulties before they become emergencies that require state takeover. Research in the 1970s provided some assistance to states wishing to recognize local financial emergencies. But the time has come to look at this issue anew, particularly with an eye toward predicting local financial problems before they become serious. This article describes a 10-point scale that predicts these problems and tests the scale to predict local fiscal stress in a sample of Michigan local governments.     

Intergovernmental Structure and Fiscal Management Strategies: A Crossnational Analysis

Does intergovernmental structure have a systematic effect on the impacts of local governments' fiscal policy responses? Using empirical data from more than 800 local governments in five countries, the article concludes that intergovernmental structure is associated with the impact attributed to various fiscal management strategies. Such strategies have generally had greater impact in local governments in federal systems than those in unitary state systems. There are similarities between federal and unitary local governments regarding the fiscal management strategies that have least impact, and both types stress the importance of productivity gains via technology. But the differences in relative importance and level of impact are more striking than the similarities. In particular, fiscal management strategies involving the relations of the local government with other governments, such as obtaining intergovernmental revenue and shifting service provision to other governments, have greater impact in significantly more federal systems than in unitary state systems. These federal local governments also experience greater impacts from increasing user charges and raising local taxes. In contrast, local governments in unitary state systems place greater reliance on the more politically expeditious strategy of across–the–board expenditure reductions and on reductions of capital spending. These findings suggest that local governments in more decentralized systems have greater flexibility to manipulate relations with other governments in order to enhance their own fiscal situation. The data also suggest that the government's level of fiscal stress is not systematically associated with the level of impact from most fiscal management strategies, especially in the unitary state systems.     

Interstate tax competition after TRA86

When a governor announces that a tax increase is necessary, how do voters decide whether the governor is representing the situation honestly, or just preparing to line his or her pockets? This paper presents evidence that voters may look at the tax increases in neighboring states to obtain information on whether a tax increase is appropriate and, using this information, decide whether to reelect their governor. The data suggest that comparisons with neighbors influence gubernatorial behavior: Governors are more likely to raise taxes when neighbors are doing the same. TRA86 allows us an extra check on the rnodelpresented: I f the marginal dollar taken in state taxes is more costly to state residents, this may increase the extent to which residents use information provided through neighboring states to sort good governors from bad.     

A Successful Transition? ACT Public Finances Under Self-government

Generous Commonwealth funding before self-government in 1989 meant that the ACT enjoyed high government expenditures and low taxation compared with the states. Self-government meant a transition to normal state funding, ultimately involving substantial reductions in Commonwealth grants. Successive governments aligned taxes with other jurisdictions, but failed to reduce expenditures, which remained well above Commonwealth Grants Commission (CGC) assessments of levels necessary to provide a standard level of services. The fiscal position — however measured — has worsened. The transition to normal funding has been unsuccessful and, without the necessary adjustments, a heavy burden will be placed on future Canberrans.     

Historical Estimates of Total Taxable Resources for U.S. States, 1981-2000

Analysts have historically relied on slate personal income (SPI)as the benchmark for comparing state spending on public goodsand services and levels of state taxes. This occurs despitethe widely acknowledged shortcomings of using SPI as a measureof fiscal capacity, a state's ability to raise revenues fromits own sources. The U.S. Department of the Treasury has developeda more comprehensive measure of fiscal capacity, Total TaxableResources (TTR). Treasury has generated official estimates ofTTR since 1992 and has used two distinct methodologies to doso. The lack of a time series using a single methodology andcurrent estimates of income and production in the United Statesrepresents a significant barrier to the widespread use of TTRfor analytical purposes. This research note generates a timeseries (1981–2000) using Treasury's current methodologyfor estimating TTR and the latest estimates for income andproductionin the United States.     

Do citizens care about government debt? Evidence from survey experiments on budgetary priorities

Ever since the Great Recession, public debt has become politicised. Some research suggests that citizens are fiscally conservative, while other research shows that they punish governments for implementing fiscal consolidation. This begs the question of whether and how much citizens care about debt. We argue that debt is not a priority for citizens because reducing it involves spending and tax trade-offs. Using a split-sample experiment and a conjoint experiment in four European countries, we show that fiscal consolidation at the cost of spending cuts or taxes hikes is less popular than commonly assumed. Revenue-based consolidation is especially unpopular, but expenditure-based consolidation is also contested. Moreover, the public has clear fiscal policy priorities: People do not favour lower debt and taxes, but they support higher progressive taxes to pay for more government spending. The article furthers our understanding of public opinion on fiscal policies and the likely political consequences of austerity.     

An Evaluation of Alternative Tax and Expenditure Limitation Policies on Kansas Local Governments

Cross-sectional time series data in a partial adjustment model are used to examine county government fiscal behavior under a "hard" tax and expenditure limitation policy, an aggregate property tax levy limit, versus a "soft" limit under Truth in Taxation in Kansas. Results indicate that under the aggregate levy limit, per capita property taxes, own-source revenues and own-source expenditures were significantly higher than under the Truth in Taxation policy where local officials face many fewer restrictions on their ability to raise the levy.