Expanding the Conversation: Multiplier Effects From a Deliberative Field Experiment

Do formal deliberative events influence larger patterns of political discussion and public opinion? Critics argue that only a tiny number of people can participate in any given gathering and that deliberation may not remedy—and may in fact exacerbate—inequalities. We assess these criticisms with an experimental design merging a formal deliberative session with data on participants’ social networks. We conducted a field experiment in which randomly selected constituents attended an online deliberative session with their U.S. Senator. We find that attending the deliberative session dramatically increased interpersonal political discussion on topics relating to the event. Importantly, after an extensive series of moderation checks, we find that no participant/nodal characteristics, or dyadic/network characteristics, conditioned these effects; this provides reassurance that observed, positive spillovers are not limited to certain portions of the citizenry. The results of our study suggest that even relatively small-scale deliberative encounters can have a broader effect in the mass public, and that these events are equal-opportunity multipliers.     

Killing and Voting in the Basque Country: An Exploration of the Electoral Link Between ETA and its Political Branch

We deal in this article with the relationship between ETA attacks and electoral support for Batasuna, its political wing. We show that the relationship is twofold, since the geographical distribution of electoral support for the terrorists affects the location of ETA attacks, but violence also influences electoral support for the terrorist cause. On the one hand, when ETA chooses a location for its attacks, it takes into account the electoral strength of Batasuna. Our results show that the higher the vote for Batasuna in a municipality, the more likely members of the security forces will be killed there. With regard to the targeting of civilians, the relationship is curvilinear. ETA kills civilians in municipalities that are polarized, where support for Batasuna falls short of being hegemonic. On the other hand, our results also show that ETA attacks have an effect on the size of its support community. When ETA kills members of the security forces, voters punish the Batasuna party electorally. In the case of civilians, it depends on the specifics of the various campaigns. We find that when ETA kills informers and drug-dealers, the vote for Batasuna increases. ETA's killing of non-nationalist politicians, however, decreases Batasuna's vote share.     

Local determinants of an emerging electoral hegemony: the case of Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey

“Party hegemony” is a macro-level characteristic of party systems, which is a product of persistent and overwhelming electoral victories that leads to domination of the parliamentary system by a single party. Party hegemony can only emerge through a collection of individual-level (albeit aggregated), lower-level structural, and macro-level institutional factors. This article intends to shed light on hegemonic party systems by incorporating all of these aspects. It analyses the case of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey as a hegemonic party in the making. Based on individual-level survey data as well as an original province-level dataset, the article examines the role of ideology, pork barrel politics, economic voting, demographics, and political institutions in AKP's rising hegemony. The replicable nature of the dataset enables further testing of these findings in comparable cases for generalizability.     

The Potential of Internet Mobilization: An Experimental Study on the Effect of Internet and Face-to-Face Mobilization Efforts

In recent years, voluntary associations and political organizations have increasingly relied on Internet-based mobilization campaigns, replacing traditional forms of face-to-face recruitment and mobilization. Within the literature, one can observe an intensive debate about the possible consequences of this transition. Most importantly, the question is whether political mobilization through the Internet is just as effective as mobilization in a face-to-face setting. In this article, we report on a mobilization experiment using both traditional (face-to-face) and modern (Web site) incentives for mobilization. The experiment was conducted among undergraduate students in Belgium and Canada and included a test of medium-term mobilization effects. Results suggest that the Internet is successful in transferring knowledge and raising issue salience among respondents, but neither experimental manipulation led to significant behavioral changes. We do not find any indication that among this experimental sample Internet-based mobilization would be less effective than traditional face-to-face forms of mobilization.     

The Mix of Media Use Matters: Investigating the Effects of Individual News Repertoires on Offline and Online Political Participation

In contemporary high-choice media environments, people increasingly mix and combine their use of various news media into personal news repertoires. Despite this, there is still limited research on how people compose their individual news repertoires and the effects of these news repertoires. To address this and further our understanding of how media use influences political participation, this study investigates (a) how people combine the use of offline and online media into personal news repertoires and (b) the effects of different news repertoires on both offline and online political participation. Based on a two-wave panel study covering the 2014 Swedish national election, this study identifies five news repertoires, labeled minimalists, public news consumers, local news consumers, social media news consumers, and popular online news consumers. Among other things, the results show that social media news consumers are more likely to participate in politics both offline and online.     

The Electoral Salience of Trade Policy: Experimental Evidence on the Effects of Welfare and Complexity

Why do some trade policies become electorally salient while others do not? While much of the literature argues that citizens act as a domestic constraint in the formation of trade policy, a general consensus has emerged that trade is most often a nonsalient issue among voters. This poses a paradox. On the one hand, trade models hinge upon voters’ rational self-interest and preferences for varying levels of protectionism to keep their governments accountable. On the other hand, the conditions by which trade becomes salient to these very voters in the first place are both undertheorized and untested. Using experimental evidence, I argue that two dimensions of a trade policy affect the likelihood of that issue becoming electorally salient. First, policies with large welfare effects should be more salient. Second, more complex issues should be less salient because such agreements are more likely to obfuscate an individual’s ability to discern its effects. I find support for my hypotheses that a trade policy’s salience tends to increase with the magnitude of its welfare effects and decrease with its complexity.     

A Concerto of Cultural Mutual-learning:Side Notes on the 1~(st) China-US-Europe Young Leaders Exchange Program

正From October 14 to 23,2014,CAFIU successfully hosted the 1st China-US-Europe Young Leaders Exchange Program.Targeted at young leaders from China,the US and Europe with a focus on political,economic and cultural exchanges,this program has selected Beijing and Guangdong to make field visits in the forms of themed talks,     

拉美"增长性贫困"与社会保障的减困功能——国际比较的背景

在考察1980～2008年拉美增长与贫困等数据时发现,拉美地区存在一个比较特殊的社会经济现象:一方面经济呈增长状态(虽然增幅很小),但另一方面贫困率却也呈持续上升趋势,只有当增长率超过3%时贫困率才开始下降.作者将拉美这个特殊现象称之为"增长性贫困"和"3%拐点假说".索罗一斯旺增长模型的引入在理论上检验了增长可以减困和"3%拐点假说"的"增长性贫困"存在的依据,诠释了1981年以来智利增长与收入分配不公得以并存的现象,解释了分配不公会降低增长对减困的弹性的事实.实证分析的结果显示,有些相关在欧盟和美国是失灵的(如"3%拐点"),有些则没有失灵(如"奥肯定律").重要的是,在比较欧盟和美国等经济体时发现,欧美社保制度的减困效果在拉美基本是"失灵"的,在作者估算中发现拉美地区社保制度的减困幅度和减困系数都远远小于欧盟和美国,并发现拉美社保制度的减困效果之所以会出现这个差距,之所以出现"增长性贫困",除初次分配不公和初始贫困率较高等其他因素之外,与拉美社保制度在改革之后存在一些问题存在高度相关:在缺乏再分配作用的同时,个人缴费率较高,对参保人遵缴率和缴费密度的要求较高,这与拉美就业市场多元化发展趋势形成冲突,参保人难以满足,导致替代率逐年下降;这一制度问题对制度外非参保人员形成负面影响,导致预期低下,进而致使制度覆盖面不但不能扩大,反而比改革前还要低.拉美式"半覆盖"社保制度却使其"合法性"逐渐开始演变成一个"政治问题":2008年11月阿根延私有化社保制度的"国有化事件"和两年前厄瓜多尔私有化社保的"骚乱事件"可视为颠覆其"合法性"的开端,可见,拉美私有化社保模式将面临严峻考验.     

牛病毒性腹泻弱毒活疫苗的安全性和免疫保护效果研究

为评价牛病毒性腹泻病毒弱毒株的安全性及其免疫保护效果,将致细胞病变型牛病毒性腹泻病毒(BVDV)驯化培养,接种MDBK细胞,优化病毒增殖条件,并将其免疫牛,评价其安全性及免疫保护效果。结果显示,优化后的病毒效价可达107.5TCID50/mL。动物试验结果显示,1月龄牛接种该弱毒株后,体温正常,白细胞数量没有下降,无任何临床异常表现。免疫牛用BVDV强毒株进行攻毒;结果表明,免疫保护效果良好。表明该毒株可以作为弱毒活疫苗研究的候选毒株。     

论联合国大陆架界限委员会在外大陆架划界中的作用——兼谈中国及周边国家的外大陆架申请

《海洋法公约》关于外大陆架申请期限的规定,导致大批国家近期向联合国大陆架界限委员会提出了申请。大陆架界限委员会的主要职能是在审议沿海国提交的划界案的基础上,就有关划定外大陆架外部界限的事项向沿海国提出建议。大陆架划界委员会所做出的建议既非一个司法式的判决,又非一个纯粹的参考意见。沿海国基于委员会的建议而划定的外大陆架外部界限具有"确定性和拘束力"。在当前的情势下,中国在掌握充分的科学技术数据编写好我们自己的外大陆架划界申请案的同时,还应注意妥善处理与日本、菲律宾、越南等周边一些国家之间的相关争端,以更好地维护我国的主权和国家利益。