Dynamic risk and protective factors

ABSTRACT

This paper reviews the literature regarding the identification and measurement of risk factors considered imminent precipitants of subsequent criminal conduct (i.e. dynamic risk factors). This paper also frames these risk factors against the so-called protective factors that are presumed to mitigate risk. Commonality among recent dynamic risk and protective measures reflects general agreement regarding viable candidate variables. Empirical studies suggest such factors yield incremental predictive validity and should inform case-formulaic understanding of criminal conduct and pathways to desistance, although this is not common practice. As well, definitional and measurement considerations are not well advanced and speak to the need for further conceptual clarity.     

Construct validity and internal reliability of the Finnish risk and needs assessment form

Validation of risk and needs assessment instruments used to predict, and reduce, recidivism and misconduct is of ethical, practical and scientific importance. We argue for a focus on variable (i.e. changeable over time) risk factors, and that validation begins with establishing construct validity. The Finnish Risk and Needs Assessment Form, in Finnish Riski- ja tarvearvio (RITA), is a semi-structured interview form adapted from the Offender Assessment System used in England and Wales and consists primarily of variable risk factors. In this study, we examined the construct validity and internal reliability of RITA. The results suggest that the original RITA sections do not provide an adequate statistical model for describing the relationship between scored questions, and we, therefore, offer an improved model. In our proposed model, several scores are influenced by more than one dimension of risk and the dimensions correlate with each other considerably. We suggest that the dimensions that can be measured with RITA are Problems managing economy, Alcohol problems, Resistance to change, Drug abuse and associated behaviour, Aggressiveness and Employment problems. All factors except Drug abuse and associated behaviour had very good internal reliability. We propose this new model to be used in future research with, and in development of, RITA.     

Assessing change in dynamic risk factors in forensic psychiatric inpatients: relationship with psychopathy and recidivism

This study explored change in dynamic risk for violence using the Clinical and Risk Management subscales of the Historical Clinical and Risk Management-20 version 3 (HCR-20 v3) and sought to determine whether change was associated with violent recidivism. The association between the magnitude of change and psychopathy was also assessed. Participants were 40 male (n = 32) and female (n = 8) forensic psychiatric inpatients discharged from a secure forensic mental health service. Results showed that participants significantly improved on the HCR-20v3 Clinical subscale but significantly worsened on the Risk Management subscale. Psychopathy was unrelated to change in Clinical and Risk Management subscales. The hypothesis that changes in dynamic risk would predict recidivism over and above total pre-treatment risk (HCR-20v3 Total score) and psychopathy was not supported. These results suggest that improvements in mental state risk factors alone are insufficient with regard to lowering violence risk.     

Measurement Properties of the Communities That Care<Superscript>®</Superscript> Youth Survey Across Demographic Groups

Prevention science has produced information about risk and protective factors that predict adolescent drug use and related problem behaviors. This paper investigates the Communities That Care Youth Survey that measures multiple risk and protective factors. Using a sample of 172,628 students who participated in surveys administered in seven states in 1998, analyses were conducted to test the factor structure of these risk and protective factors and to test the equivalence of the factor models across five racial/ethnic groups (African Americans, Asians or Pacific Islanders, Caucasians, Hispanic Americans, and Native Americans), four grade levels (6th, 8th, 10th, and 12th) and both gender groups. Results support the construct validity of the surveys risk and protective factor scales and indicate that the measures are equally reliable across males and females and five racial/ethnic groups. Implications of these findings for science-based prevention planning are discussed.     

Examining the Role of Static and Dynamic Risk Factors in the Prediction of Inpatient Violence: Variable- and Person-Focused Analyses

Although the construct of psychopathy is related to community violence and recidivism in various populations, empirical evidence suggests that its association with institutional aggression is weak at best. The current study examined, via both variable-level and group-level analyses, the relationship between standard violence risk instruments, which included a measure of psychopathy, and institutional violence. Additionally, the incremental validity of dynamic risk factors also was examined. The results suggest that PCL-R was only weakly related to institutional aggression and only then when the behavioral (Factor 2) aspects of the construct were examined. The clinical and risk management scales on the HCR-20, impulsivity, anger, and psychiatric symptoms all were useful in identifying patients at risk for exhibiting institutional aggression. These data suggest that factors other than psychopathy, including dynamic risk factors, may be most useful in identifying forensic patients at higher risk for exhibiting aggression.     

Measuring Neoliberalism: Development and Initial Validation of a Scale of Anti-Neoliberal Attitudes

Critics of neoliberalism argue that so-called meritocratic and identity-neutral social policies and political positions actually reinforce and exacerbate intersecting inequalities, namely racism, sexism, heterosexism, classism, and ethnocentrism/xenophobia. The purpose of these studies was to develop and initially validate a scale of neoliberal attitudes from a wide range of existing instruments that reflect anti-neoliberal theory. A series of three studies resulted in a 25-item instrument—the Anti-Neoliberal Attitudes Scale (ANAS)—that exhibits initial evidence of construct validity, internal consistency, and test–retest reliability. Exploratory factor analysis with students from two universities revealed a four-factor structure of Racism and Sexism Awareness, Communitarian Values, Multicultural Ideology, and Inequality Consciousness. However, a confirmatory factor analysis with an independent sample of undergraduate students suggests a bifactor model in which the general factor explains most of the variance and that the instrument should be treated as a single scale, rather than independent subscales. Significant correlations with measures of right-wing authoritarianism and social dominance orientation suggest convergent validity. Temporal stability was established via a test–retest analysis in an independent sample of undergraduate students. Finally, responses from a sample of MTurk workers provided evidence of the ANAS’s incremental validity when compared to an existing measure of neoliberal beliefs. Implications for future empirical work on the psychological dimensions of neoliberalism are discussed.

     

“Because you’ve got faith it doesn’t mean that you’ve got wings on your back”: a qualitative analysis of the accounts of Christian prisoners serving time for a sexual offence

Religious beliefs have been variously promulgated as both protective and risk factors for sexual reoffending. Moreover, therapists working with religious prisoners struggle with unravelling cognitive distortions embedded within religious views, with concerns about accusations of prejudice salient in their mindset. This paper presents a novel contribution to research by combining the qualitative analysis of the accounts offered by individuals (n?=?12) convicted of sexual offences who describe themselves as Christians. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews and analysed using Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis. This paper focuses on two superordinate themes: (i) The God Effect and (ii) The Shadow Side of Religion. Implications of this research are discussed with reference to the assessment of dynamic risk and protective factors with religious individuals who have been convicted of a sexual offence.     

The differential predictive validity of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory: the role of gender

Most criminogenic risk assessments are developed and empirically validated on samples of boys or samples comprised of mostly boys, and subsequently applied to girls. Using a sample of male (n = 1,267) and female (n = 453) probationers, the purpose of the current study was to examine the potentially differential performance of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) and the instrument’s eight domains for female juvenile offenders. Findings revealed gender differences in the predictive validity of the YLS/CMI in which girls scored significantly higher on the risk assessment, but recidivated at significantly lower rates than boys two years following the administration of the assessment. The predictive validity of the instrument was impacted by these gender differences in which the YLS/CMI total score was a better predictor of recidivism for boys (area under the curve (AUC) = .623) than girls (AUC = .565). The only subscales that significantly predicted recidivism for girls were the family (AUC = .607) and personality (AUC = .572) domains, whereas all of the subscales significantly predicted recidivism for boys. Directions for future research as well as gender-responsive assessment, programming, and policy implications are discussed.     

Socially desirable responding and psychometric assessment of dynamic risk in sexual offenders against children

Does socially desirable responding (SDR) represent a threat to the validity of dynamic risk assessment in sex offenders’ self-reports? We studied a sample of men (N?=?218) who completed a psychometric assessment battery while enrolled at Kia Marama, a prison-based treatment program for sexual offenders against children. SDR, as measured by the Marlowe-Crowne scale, was elevated compared to non-offender samples, increased from pre- to post-treatment, and was negatively correlated with dynamic risk (rs?=??.30 to ?.40), consistent with previous research. Measures of dynamic risk factors derived from the psychometric battery were correlated with sexual recidivism, but correlations were little changed when variance associated with SDR was removed using a regression procedure [Mills, J. F., &; Kroner, D. G. (2006). Impression management and self-report among violent offenders. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 21(2), 178–192.]. These results suggest that there is a substantial component of the variance in psychometric self-reports of sexual offenders that is associated with SDR (approximately 10%), but that it does not compromise the predictive or construct validity of dynamic risk measures derived from these reports.     

Forecasting Recidivism in Mentally Ill Offenders Released from Prison

Little research has focused on assessing the risk of mentally ill offenders (MIOs) released from state prisons. Here we report findings for 333 mentally ill offenders released from Washington State prisons. Logistic regression identified sets of variables that forecasted felony and violent reconviction as accurately as state-of-the-art risk assessment instruments. Sums of simple recoded versions of these variables predicted reoffense as well as complex logistic regression equations. Five of these 9 variables were found to be relative protective factors. Findings are discussed in terms of the value of stock correctional variables in forecasting risk, the need to base actuarial risk assessments on local data, the importance of protective factors in assessing MIO risk, and the need for dynamic, situational, and clinical variables that can further sharpen predictive accuracy of emergent risk in the community.     

The measure of wife abuse: Steps toward the development of a comprehensive assessment technique

The lack of an adequate assessment tool for wife abuse has hindered empirical research. The Measure of Wife Abuse (MWA) was developed to improve on previously developed instruments, mainly by using empirical methods of construction, which has enabled the MWA to assess a broader range of wife abuse behaviors. The purpose of this study was to determine the factor structure of the MWA items, and to assess its reliability and validity. Confirmatory multiple group factor analyses of the MWA responses of 164 abused women yielded four factors: Physical, Sexual, Psychological, and Verbal Abuse. The MWA was found to possess adequate levels of both reliability, estimated from its internal consistency, and concurrent validity, with the Conflict Tactics Scales as the criterion measure.     

Dynamic risk and sexual offending: the conundrum of assessment

ABSTRACT

The potential to reduce sexual victimisation, promote community safety, and decrease incarceration costs has resulted in considerable progress in terms of how we understand and predict sexual recidivism. And yet, the past decade has seen a degree of fragmentation emerge as research attention has shifted away from relative risk prediction (with its focus on static risk factors) to the identification of factors capable of reducing risk through intervention (i.e. dynamic risk). Although static and dynamic risk are often treated as orthogonal constructs [Beech, A. R., & Craig, L. A. (2012). The current status of static and dynamic factors in sexual offender risk assessment. Journal of Aggression, Conflict and Peace Research, 4(4), 169–185. doi:10.1108/17596591211270671], there are arguments to support a claim that the two are in fact functionally related [see Ward, T. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: Scientific kinds or predictive constructs. Psychology, Crime & Law (in 22(01–02), 2–16); Ward, T., & Beech, A. R. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: A theoretical dead-end? Psychology, Crime & Law, 21(2), 100–113. This discussion clearly affects how we assess dynamic risk. This review considered several commonly used methods of assessment and the evidence offered for their predictive accuracy. Of note were differences in the predictive accuracy of single psychometric measures versus composite scores of dynamic risk domains and the conventions used for establishing effect sizes for risk assessment tools.     

Validation of the factor structure and predictive validity of the Forensic Evidence Evaluation Bias Scale for robbery and sexual assault trial scenarios

In order to investigate the role of pre-trial attitudes about forensic science in juror decision-making, a previous study demonstrated the predictive validity of the Forensic Evidence Evaluation Bias Scale (FEEBS), using a murder trial scenario, which featured ambiguous prosecution DNA evidence. The current study validates the FEEBS using two new crime types and the conditions include a manipulation of the presence of DNA evidence in the trial scenario. The FEEBS successfully predicted mock jurors' perceptions of the probative value of DNA evidence for both robbery and sexual assault trials. The two subscales of the FEEBS were demonstrated to have different predictive ability depending on the presence or absence of DNA evidence. A confirmatory factor analytic technique was used to validate the underlying two-factor structure of the FEEBS, as previously proposed. These results are discussed with reference to the CSI Effect literature, and the potential for improvement to less empirically supported voir dire questioning techniques.     

Predictive validity of the dynamic risk assessment and management system in individuals with intellectual disability residing in the community

Background. The Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management System (DRAMS) was created to measure dynamic risk in individuals with intellectual disabilities (ID). Steptoe, Lindsay, Murphy, and Young, (2008) examined the construct validity, reliability and predictive validity of the dynamic risk assessment and management system (DRAMS) in offenders with intellectual disability and found that the total DRAMS score and sections on mood, antisocial behaviour and intolerance/agreeableness predicted incidents with a medium effect size for offenders with ID residing in high secure settings.     

Challenges for the theory and application of dynamic risk factors

ABSTRACT

The inclusion of dynamic factors in risk assessment measures used with forensic populations has largely been considered an improvement in both the accuracy and utility of these assessments in informing treatment and sentencing. However, there are important challenges associated with the current approach to the conceptualisation, identification, and use of dynamic factors in risk assessment. Whereas some of these challenges relate to applied settings (such as the use of measures with different offender populations), there are also deeper questions regarding the construct validity of dynamic risk measures and the methodological strategies used to identify them. More emphasis on theoretically driven research is needed, to identify causal and explanatory relationships between dynamic risk factors and recidivism. We hope that highlighting these challenges can help to build a consensus on a future research agenda for dynamic risk factors.     

Job satisfaction: validating Dantzker’s four-factor model using structural equation modeling

The purpose of this study was to examine the validity of the four-factor structure from a job satisfaction instrument. Dantzker’s job satisfaction instrument was designed to capture information on four factors: general administration, extras, job, and equipment. Using data from police officers that are middle management (n?=?136), we performed confirmatory factor analysis via structural equation modeling to validate that the four factors are actually capturing job satisfaction. The results of the study show that the four-factor solution fit the model satisfactorily. All of the factor loadings were large expect for one. The results suggest that the four-factor solution has proper validity to use with middle manager police officers. Post hoc simulation analyses (n?=?1000 replications) show that no bias in the factor loadings or standard errors was present in this analysis, and the study had sufficient statistical power.     

A coffee can, factor analysis, and prediction of antisocial behavior: the structure of criminal risk

The predictive accuracy of the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised, Level of Service Inventory-Revised, Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, and the General Statistical Information on Recidivism were compared to four instruments randomly generated from the total pool of original items. None of the four original instruments better predicted post-release failure than the four randomly generated instruments. These results suggest two conclusions: (a) the instruments are only measuring criminal risk, and (b) no single instrument has captured sufficient risk assessment theory to result in better prediction than randomly derived instruments measuring criminal risk. A two-stage factor analysis was completed on 1614 cases. This analysis of the risk items indicated a 4-factor solution and all 4 factors were equal to the original instruments in predicting post-release failure. Thus, the original instruments did not improve prediction over randomly structured scales, nor did the restructuring of items improve risk assessment, suggesting substantial deficiencies in the conceptualization of risk assessment and instrumentation. We argue that developing a risk-based construct, which involves hypothesis testing and an explanation of behavior, is the optimal method to advance risk assessment within the criminal justice and mental health systems. Such an approach would provide targeted areas for clinical intervention that are salient to risk.     

HCR-20 violence risk assessments as a guide for treating and managing violence risk in a forensic psychiatric setting

Abstract

Over the past decades there has been a vast development in the research into risk factors for violence and the development of risk assessment instruments. One instrument that has been given special attention is the HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme. However, little attention has been paid to the clinical applicability of this tool, i.e. how does this assessment scheme perform when utilized in clinical practice as a tool to guide intervention and management in order to alleviate risk of violent behaviour? The present study was a true prospective study into the utilization of the HCR-20 as a clinical routine. Data on forensic psychiatric patients (n = 81) from a forensic unit in Denmark are presented. As part of a clinical routine all patients were assessed for risk of future violence utilizing the structured professional judgement model, the HCR-20. Outcome measures were aggressive episodes during hospitalization and new convictions post discharge. The predictive validity of the HCR-20 was lower compared with previous findings. It is argued that this does not necessarily indicate poor predictive accuracy of the HCR-20. Rather, it may indicate that the HCR-20 is suitable for guiding risk management in order to prevent violent behaviour.     

Beyond static and dynamic risk factors: the incremental validity of release planning for predicting sex offender recidivism

Both desistance research and strengths-based approaches to offender rehabilitation suggest that attempts to reduce sex offender recidivism should attend to an offender's release environment. Recent research has demonstrated that better quality release planning is associated with reduced recidivism; however, whether release planning contributes significant incremental validity in predicting recidivism over and above static and dynamic risk factors is unclear. In the present study, release planning was retrospectively assessed for a sample of child molesters (n = 196) who had been released into the community following completion of a prison-based treatment program and its relative contribution to recidivism risk prediction was investigated. The average follow-up period was 11.08 years, during which 13.3% of the sample were convicted of a new sexual offence. Hierarchical Cox regression analyses showed that release planning contributed additional predictive validity for sexual recidivism after controlling for static and dynamic risk factors. Findings suggest that assessment of release planning might improve accuracy of sex offender risk assessments and that improved release planning should contribute to reductions in recidivism.     

Criminogenic need and women offenders: A critique of the literature

Purpose . This paper considers the criminogenic needs of women offenders, raising the question of whether there may be women‐specific criminogenic needs. Arguments . The risk‐needs model of offending has become increasingly influential in both research and practice. Simply, the risk–needs model holds that some aspects of an individual's functioning are risk factors for offending. The distinction can be drawn between static and dynamic risk factors: the former are historical, the latter reflect current functioning and are amenable to change. These dynamic attributes linked to offending – such as financial status, emotional problems, and substance use – are referred to as criminogenic needs. Needs assessment instruments, such as the Level of Service Inventory‐Revised (LSI‐R; Andrews & Bonta, 1995 ) have been developed to assess criminogenic need and predict risk of offending. Much of the research informing the risk–needs model has been carried out with male offenders, leading to questions about the criminogenic needs of women offenders and whether there may be women‐specific criminogenic needs. Conclusion . An overview of typical criminogenic needs, as assessed by the LSI‐R, suggests that there are probably common needs for male and female offenders. A common need does not imply that aetiology or level of importance of that need is the same for men and women, while some events, such as physical and sexual abuse, are arguably criminogenic needs for women. The implications for practice and research of understanding more about women‐specific criminogenic needs are considered.