The development of a filter model for prioritising suspects in burglary offences

Abstract

This paper discusses the development of a filter model for prioritizing possible links in dwelling burglary. The filters utilize the central aspects of crime scene information that is available and accessible to investigators in burglary, namely geo-spatial, temporal, behavioural, and dwelling information. The proposed filters were analysed using a sample of 215 dwelling burglaries committed by 43 serial burglars (i.e. 5 offences each) in order to determine the sequence in which the filters should be considered in prioritizing possible linked offences. The results indicated that the following order (i.e. better performance to worse performance) was most effective at linking offences, utilizing: (1) geo-spatial information, (2) temporal aspects, (3) behavioural information and, lastly, (4) dwelling characteristics. Specifically, the results indicated that offences in close proximity to one another should be given priority. Further, any offence occurring within a 28-day span before or after the index offence should be given priority. The paper argues that behavioural and dwelling characteristics are less effective for linking than geo-spatial and temporal information because the former two aspects are influenced significantly by situational and contextual cues on offender decision-making.     

Distance travelled and offence characteristics in homicide,rape, and robbery against business

Purpose. We aimed (1) to describe distances from home to offence locations (journey‐to‐crime) of offenders in difficult‐to‐solve homicides and rapes as well as robberies against businesses; (2) to see whether the distances in these offences differ from each other; and (3) to test whether selected features related to the offence would be associated with the distances. Methods. Lists of difficult‐to‐solve (DTS) homicides (N = 99) and rapes (N = 56) as well as robberies against businesses (N = 275) from the city of Milan (Italy) were acquired. The collected data consisted of home and offence location coordinates with information on the behaviour of the offenders (for rapes and homicides). The journey‐to‐crime functions were calibrated using the journey‐to‐crime module of CrimeStatIII©. Results. Most distances were short. In homicides, distances were below 1 km, in rapes below 2 km whereas in robberies against businesses almost 6 km. Some crime features were correlated with the distances in rape and homicide cases. Combining the behavioural information to a spatial behaviour measure allowed for better prediction of travelled distances compared to using single variables. Conclusions. The results have practical implications for crime investigations as the crime features explored were, as a rule, such that they would be known by the police prior to the offender being identified. A general theoretical framework for binding together journey‐to‐crime distances and offender crime scene behaviour and other important crime features is needed.     

Another look at across-crime similarity coefficients for use in behavioural linkage analysis: an attempt to replicate Woodhams,Grant, and Price (2007)

Abstract

In the absence of physical evidence, investigators must often rely on offence behaviours when determining whether several crimes are linked to a common offender. A variety of factors can potentially influence the degree to which accurate linking is possible, including the similarity coefficient used to assess across-crime similarity. The current study examines the performance of two similarity coefficients that have recently been compared to one another, Jaccard's coefficient (J) and the taxonomic similarity index (Δ_s), using samples of two crime types, serial homicide (N=237) and serial burglary (N=210). In contrast to previous research, the results indicate that Δ_s does not significantly outperform J with respect to linking accuracy. In addition, both coefficients lead to higher levels of linking accuracy in cases of serial homicide compared to serial burglary. Potential explanations for these findings are presented and their implications are discussed.     

The relationship between the detection of acquisitive crime by forensic science and drug-dependent offenders

Drug- and nondrug-related acquisitive crime offences such as burglary, theft, and motor vehicle theft, were compared to assess whether drug abusers were more likely to be apprehended via forensic science techniques. Data were all acquisitive offences committed over a 6-year period within a police force area in England. Drug-dependent offenders committed a wider range of offence types than nondependent offenders, and they were significantly more likely to be detected via their DNA or fingerprints (p < 0.01). A logistic regression (n > 14,000) revealed a number of predictors that influence the detection of the crime by forensic techniques. The results indicate that a number of these predictors are of statistical significance; the most significant of these being drug use by the offender with sex, ethnicity, and employment status also being relevant. Age of the offender and number of offences committed were found not to be significant. Of the four hypotheses considered to explain this, the most likely was thought to be the physical and mental impact of drug use on crime scene behavior. Consideration is given to the disciplines of forensic science and forensic psychology working closely together to distinguish factors that influence crime scene behavior.     

A Multidimensional Approach to Ascertaining Individual Differentiation and Consistency in Serial Sexual Assault: Is It Time to Redefine and Refine?

Whilst investigative use of behavioural evidence to help link and solve serial offences has long been in use, the empirical and theoretical grounds for whether and how to use this evidence effectively have begun to emerge only in recent decades. The present study empirically tested (a) the potential for effectively differentiating between rape offence crime scenes using quantitative and qualitative distinctions within the behavioural dimensions of control, violence, and sexual activity, and (b) the extent to which redefining behavioural consistency more broadly to include dynamic trajectories of behavioural change may be more effective than limiting this definition to behavioural stability. Results confirmed that sexual offences can be successfully differentiated based on the specific degree and subtype of these behavioural dimensions present in each crime scene. The analysis of consistency and behavioural trajectories showed that whilst none of the offenders exhibited complete consistency across behavioural dimensions, a subsample of offenders remained fully consistent in at least one. Furthermore, of those who were not consistent, the vast majority followed an identifiable trajectory of change. Findings are discussed in the context of psychological theories of behavioural consistency as well as practical aspects of advancing the utility of behavioural linkage.     

Profile of forensic state patients at a psychiatric unit in KwaZulu Natal,South Africa: demographic,clinical and forensic factors

State patients are mentally ill offenders whose charges involved serious offences. Research on association between psychiatric morbidity and offences is important however data from Southern Africa is limited. To examine the demographic, clinical and forensic characteristics of state patients, and to evaluate the determinants of offending by an investigation of the association between mental illness and other variables (offence, comorbidity). Retrospective record review of state patients admitted to a forensic unit in KwaZulu-Natal from the 1 June 2013 to the 31 May 2016. Most patients were male (n = 90, 98.90%), single (n = 89, 97.8%), unemployed (n = 89, 97.80%) and had a diagnosis of intellectual disability (n = 33, 36.26%). Majority of participants had comorbid diagnoses (n = 70, 76.92%) and most of them (n = 52, 57.14%) had substance use disorder. Forty (43.96%) patients had past forensic history and 18 (72.5%) were non-adherent with treatment. Offences were predominantly against persons (n = 80, 87.91%), and rape was the most common offence (n = 50, 54.95%). Findings regarding diagnosis and offence were not consistent with the literature and suggest the need to explore the differences further. A better understanding of the association between mental health and crime in resource restrained settings may assist in developing appropriate prevention and rehabilitation programmes.     

Behavioural case linkage with solved and unsolved crimes

Offender behaviour is used to distinguish between crimes committed by the same person (linked crimes) and crimes committed by different people (unlinked crimes) through behavioural case linkage. There is growing evidence to support the use of behavioural case linkage by investigative organisations such as the police, but this research is typically limited to samples of solved crime that do not reflect how this procedure is used in real life. The current paper extends previous research by testing the potential for behavioural case linkage in a sample containing both solved and unsolved crimes. Discrimination accuracy is examined across crime categories (e.g. a crime pair containing a car theft and a residential burglary), across crime types (e.g. a crime pair containing a residential burglary and a commercial burglary), and within crime types (e.g. a crime pair containing two residential burglaries) using the number of kilometres (intercrime distance) and the number of days (temporal proximity) between offences to distinguish between linked and unlinked crimes. The intercrime distance and/or the temporal proximity were able to achieve statistically significant levels of discrimination accuracy across crime categories, across crime types, and within crime types as measured by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. This suggests that behavioural case linkage can be used to assist the investigation, detection and prosecution of prolific and versatile serial offenders.     

PROTECTION OF MALE SEXUAL RIGHTS IN THE CRIME OF RAPE

Crimes relevant to sexual offence in the current Criminal Law of the PRC, such as the crime of rape, the crime of forcible molestation and humiliation of women, the crime of indecency with a child, establish a relatively close net for protecting female sexual rights. However, the protection of male sexual rights is surprisingly neglected or disregarded. In current China, sexual offences against males （including sexual offence against a male by male and sexual offence against a male by female） are getting worse. Unfortunately, male victims of sexual offences cannot seek for legal remedy due to the lack of legal provisions. In theory, the Criminal Law needs to bring in the protection of male sexual rights. This thesis will focus on the issue relevant to sexual offences against males on the crime of rape. The authors will present increasing evidence of sexual offences against males and explore the reasons. We will analyze the necessity of amending the provisions of the crime of rape based on theoretical and practical research, and learn from the advantages of legislations of different times and places in China and other countries. We will conclude with suggestions for amending the current Criminal Law about the crime of rape in order to fill up the gap in legal protection of male sexual rights in China.     

Gender ‘Hostility’, Rape,and the Hate Crime Paradigm

This article examines whether crimes motivated by, or which demonstrate, gender ‘hostility’ should be included within the current framework of hate crime legislation in England and Wales. The article uses the example of rape to explore the parallels (both conceptual and evidential) between gender‐motivated violence and other ‘archetypal’ forms of hate crime. It is asserted that where there is clear evidence of gender hostility during the commission of an offence, a defendant should be pursued in law additionally as a hate crime offender. In particular it is argued that by focusing on the hate‐motivation of many sexual violence offenders, the criminal justice system can begin to move away from its current focus on the ‘sexual’ motivations of offenders and begin to more effectively challenge the gendered prejudices that are frequently causal to such crimes.     

A fundamental attribution error? Rethinking cognitive distortions†

The notion of ‘cognitive distortion’ has become enshrined in the offender treatment literature over the last 20 years, yet the concept still suffers from a lack of definitional clarity. In particular, the umbrella term is often used to refer to offence‐supportive attitudes, cognitive processing during an offence sequence, as well as post‐hoc neutralisations or excuses for offending. Of these very different processes, the last one might be the most popular and problematic. Treatment programmes for offenders often aim to eliminate excuse‐making as a primary aim, and decision‐makers place great weight on the degree to which an offender “takes responsibility” for his or her offending. Yet, the relationship between these after‐the‐fact explanations and future crime is not at all clear. Indeed, the designation of post hoc excuses as criminogenic may itself be an example of fallacious thinking. After all, outside of the criminal context, post hoc excuse‐making is widely viewed as normal, healthy, and socially rewarded behaviour. We argue that the open exploration of contextual risk factors leading to offending can help in the identification of criminogenic factors as well as strengthen the therapeutic experience. Rather than insist that offenders take “responsibility” for the past, we suggest that efforts should focus on helping them take responsibility for the future, shifting the therapeutic focus from post hoc excuses to offence‐supportive attitudes and underlying cognitive schemas that are empirically linked to re‐offending.     

The linking of burglary crimes using offender behaviour: Testing research cross‐nationally and exploring methodology

Purpose. The current study tests whether existing behavioural case linkage findings from the United Kingdom (UK) will replicate abroad with a sample of residential burglaries committed in Finland. In addition, a previously discussed methodological issue is empirically explored. Methods. Seven measures of behavioural similarity, geographical proximity, and temporal proximity are calculated for pairs of burglary crimes committed by 117 serial burglars in Finland. The ability of these seven measures to distinguish between pairs of crimes committed by the same offender (linked pairs) and different offenders (unlinked pairs) is tested using logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Two methodologies for forming the unlinked pairs are compared; one representing the ‘traditional’ approach used by research and, the other, a new approach that represents a potentially more realistic and statistically sound approach to testing case linkage. Results. A wider range of offender behaviours were able to distinguish between linked and unlinked crime pairs in the current Finnish sample than in previous UK‐based research. The most successful features were the kilometre‐distance between crimes (the intercrime distance), the number of days separating offences (temporal proximity), and a combination of target, entry, internal, and property behaviours (the combined domain). There were no statistically significant differences between the two methodological approaches. Conclusions. The current findings demonstrate that a wider range of offender behaviours can be used to discriminate between linked and unlinked residential burglary crimes committed in Finland than in the UK. The use of a more realistic and statistically sound methodology does not lead to substantial changes in case linkage findings.     

The Moving Home Effect: A Quasi Experiment Assessing Effect of Home Location on the Offence Location

Objectives

This study aims to test whether the home location has a causal effect on the crime location. To accomplish this the study capitalizes on the natural experiment that occurs when offender??s move, and uses a unique metric, the distance between sequential offenses, to determine if when an offender moves the offense location changes.

Methods

Using a sample of over 40,000 custodial arrests from Syracuse, NY between 2003 and 2008, this quasi-experimental design uses t test??s of mean differences, and fixed effects regression modeling to determine if moving has a significant effect on the distance between sequential offenses.

Results

This study finds that when offenders move they tend to commit crimes in locations farther away from past offences than would be expected without moving. The effect is rather small though, both in absolute terms (an elasticity coefficient of 0.02), and in relation to the effect of other independent variables (such as the time in between offenses).

Conclusions

This finding suggests that the home has an impact on where an offender will choose to commit a crime, independent of offence, neighborhood, or offender characteristics. The effect is small though, suggesting other factors may play a larger role in influencing where offenders choose to commit crime.     

Cashlessness and Street Crime: A Cross-national Study of Direct Deposit Payment and Robbery Rates

Substantial variation in national crime rates suggests social structure and cultural context influence offending and victimization. Several prominent criminological theories anticipate a positive association between the prevalence of cash in a society and its rates of pecuniary crime. We examined the association between one form of “cashlessness” and national robbery rates across nations (n = 67), controlling for several structural covariates of national crime rates. We obtained data on robbery from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, and data on government-based cashlessness from the Global Financial Inclusion Database. We found nations with higher levels of government-based cashlessness had lower robbery rates (β = ?.41, p = .02). We also undertook several sensitivity analyses, including tests for a relationship with commercial cashlessness and for crimes like homicide and burglary. Our results suggest technological advancements that reduce cash in a society may have implications for a nation’s robbery rates.     

ROLE OF THE STREET NETWORK IN BURGLARS' SPATIAL DECISION‐MAKING*

Explaining why crime is spatially concentrated has been a central theme of much criminological research. Although various theories focus on neighborhood social processes, environmental criminology asserts that the physical environment plays a central role by shaping people's activity patterns and the opportunities for crime. Here, we test theoretical expectations regarding the role of the road network in shaping the spatial distribution of crime and, in contrast to prior research, disentangle how it might influence offender awareness of criminal opportunities and the supply of ambient guardianship. With a mixed logit (discrete choice) model, we use data regarding (N = 459) residential burglaries (for the first time) to model offender spatial decision‐making at the street segment level. Novel graph theory metrics are developed to estimate offender awareness of street segments and to estimate levels of ambient guardianship, distinguishing between local and nonlocal guardianship. As predicted by crime pattern theory, novel metrics concerning offender familiarity and effort were significant predictors of residential burglary location choices. And, in line with Newman's (1972) concept of defensible space, nonlocal (local) pedestrian traffic was found to be associated with an increase (decrease) in burglary risk. Our findings also demonstrate that “taste” preferences vary across offenders, which presents a challenge for future research to explain.     

Participative leadership and hierarchical structures in multiple perpetrator rape: replicating and extending a scale of influence among offenders

ABSTRACT

This paper replicates and extends Porter and Alison’s (2001. A partially ordered scale of influence in violent group behavior: An example from gang rape. Small Group Research, 32(4), 475–497) method of leader identification in Multiple Perpetrator Rape (MPR). The study examined 216 MPR offences (totalling 712 different offenders), collected from archival sources (predominantly law reports). Porter and Alison’s original coding scheme was refined and Multidimensional Scaling identified a partially ordered scale of influence based upon the decisions, actions and orders made by the offenders at each chronological offence stage. The updated scale identified leaders in 97% of the sample groups. The hierarchical structures of the groups were also examined through the distribution of influence among co-offenders. While the majority (68%) of cases exhibited a dichotomous leader/follower structure, some “followers” also exhibited influence tactics to varying degrees with the presence of “lieutenants” and linear hierarchies. The findings are discussed in relation to group dynamics as well as the reliability and validity of the influence scale.     

Moroccan adolescent suspect offenders in the Netherlands: ethnic differences in offender profiles

Ethnic minority youths are over-represented in the juvenile justice system in Western societies. However, research on the nature of crime committed by these youths is lacking. In the present study, offending patterns of incarcerated native Dutch adolescents and adolescents of Moroccan origin were compared. Criminal record data were used to examine the offence history of 291 incarcerated adolescents. Offender types were determined through latent class analysis. Adolescents of Moroccan origin were incarcerated more often, for more offences and at a younger age than native Dutch adolescents. A four-class model of offender types was found: property offenders, violent offenders, sexual offenders and arsonists. Property offenders were mainly Moroccan adolescents, the other offender types consisted predominantly of native Dutch adolescents. Moroccan adolescents in pre-trial arrest in the Netherlands can be characterized as early starting offenders who persist in being incarcerated for property-based crime.     

Examining the relationship between sexual offenders and their victims: Interpersonal differences between stranger and non-stranger sexual offences

Abstract

The present study examined the behavioural differences in sexual assault offences in relation to the offender–victim relationship (stranger versus non-stranger). These differences were examined specifically in the context of four interpersonal themes of interaction: dominance, submission, hostility and cooperation. The details of 100 sexual offence cases (50 stranger and 50 non-stranger) were content-analysed, generating 58 dichotomous variables, covering offender and victim behaviour during the offence. χ² tests comparing the two samples found that offenders who were strangers to their victims were more likely than non-stranger offenders to display behaviours that indicate a hostile, violent offence style. In contrast, those offenders who knew their victims were more likely than strangers to display a less violent and more personal, compliance-gaining offence style. These findings are discussed in terms of their implications for offender rehabilitation and victim support.