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1.
    
Abstract

Sturidsson et al. (Psychology, Crime & Law, 12, 221–230, 2006) published an article on the replicability of early multidimensional scaling (MDS) behavioural research by Canter and Heritage (Journal of Forensic Psychiatry, 1, 185–212, 1990). Sturidsson et al. were unable to find a ‘readily apparent, simple interpretation’ of their MDS solution and therefore suggested that the MDS approach may be flawed as a device for interpreting sexual assault. The current paper explains how the methods employed by Sturidsson et al. represent an incorrect use of MDS, specifically in their input of Jaccard similarity data into the MDS (ALSCAL) procedure in SPSS as opposed to the correct MDS (PROXSCAL) procedure. A comparative example is used to illustrate how adopting the ALSCAL procedure will result in an inverse MDS solution, where objects appearing closer together are more dissimilar, making interpretation of the MDS plot meaningless in this context. The current paper discusses this methodological flaw in greater depth and in the context of behavioural investigative research using MDS in general. It concludes with some general guidelines in utilizing the MDS procedure in SPSS specific to criminal profiling research.  相似文献   

2.
    
Abstract

Crime scene profiling has received considerable attention, particularly in popular media. First, since low inter-rater reliability would affect the validity of profiling, we tested inter-rater agreement for 33 variables often used in manuals for the coding of crime-related behaviour. Thirty cases were chosen randomly from 146 cases of assault rape with unknown male offenders in Sweden during 1990–1994. Second, we used multidimensional scaling (MDS) with all 146 cases to replicate earlier work by Canter and Heritage (Journal of Forensic Psychiatry, 1, 185–212, 1990) regarding motivational dimensions in unknown assault rapists. On average, inter-rater reliability was good; physical behaviours were more reliably coded than were verbal behaviours. However, a two-dimensional MDS solution with the motivational dimensions suggested by Canter and Heritage was not replicated. We argue for better empirical support for the inclusion of specific variables in coding formats for crime scene information. This is particularly important for analyses like the MDS, since the number, representativity, and intercorrelations of such variables could affect results considerably.  相似文献   

3.
    
Abstract

Multidimensional scaling (MDS) has become a popular form of statistical analysis in the field of psychology and law. A recent paper in this journal by Sturidsson and colleagues (12, 221–230, 2006) used MDS to replicate an earlier study of sexual offence behaviour by Canter and Heritage (Journal of Forensic Psychiatry, 1, 185–212, 1990). They concluded that the model was not replicable and cast grave doubts on the applicability of MDS for the analysis of sexual offences. In this paper I argue that neither conclusion is correct. Initial difficulties in interpretation of the MDS results were clearly due to errors in calculation that should have been recognised. Indeed, a frequency analysis of Sturidsson and colleagues’ variables indicated that their results were in fact remarkably congruent with those of Canter and Heritage. It is concluded that statistical software should not obviate the need for a working knowledge of the statistics being computed.  相似文献   

4.
    
The current study aimed to identify distinct types of crime scene behaviors based on the criminal planning and motivation of offenders with mental illness in South Korea. Furthermore, our study examined the relationships between the identified types of crime scene behaviors in terms of the offenders’ sociodemographic characteristics, modus operandi, and types of mental illness. Utilizing latent class analysis, the associations between crime scene behavior types and offender characteristics such as demographic factors, crime scene actions, and criminal information were empirically investigated. In particular, based on a sample obtained from a national police database of offenses committed between 2006 and 2014, four offense groups were identified: (i) instrumental–planned, (ii) instrumental–unplanned, (iii) expressive–unplanned, and (iv) hybrid. Additionally, significant relationships were found between offense styles and offender characteristics as well as criminal backgrounds. The findings suggest that mental disorders influence the types of actions exhibited by offenders during the commission of their crime. The results are discussed in terms of their theoretical and practical utility to criminal investigation.  相似文献   

5.
    
Abstract

Claims have been made that critical thinking is a necessary skill for constructing accurate offender profiles. However, in studies purporting to demonstrate this, critical thinking ability amongst participants has never been adequately assessed, making it impossible to draw any valid conclusions about the importance of this skill for profiling. In order to empirically examine the relationship between critical thinking ability and profile accuracy, participants (n=36) in the current study completed a mock profiling exercise and the Watson–Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal – Form S (WGCTA-S). Profile accuracy scores were calculated for each participant and correlated with his or her scores on the WGCTA-S. Although the majority of participants were found to be adequate critical thinkers, no significant relationship was found between critical thinking ability and profile accuracy. Potential explanations for this finding are discussed.  相似文献   

6.
    
Abstract

Recent studies examining the Psychopathy Checklist – Revised (PCL-R) have argued for a range of factorial solutions to describe and explain the dimensions of psychopathy. This study details an empirical analysis of North American PCL-R data for 4630 male offenders, using multidimensional scaling (MDS) as a non-linear alternative to factor analysis. The emergent structure of Hare's psychopathy psychometric can be interpreted in more than one way and at different levels of specificity. The multidimensional scalograms reveal a set of facets consistent with the two- and four-factor solutions that emerge from the same data. Equally the structure of the PCL-R can be interpreted through personality theory as a set of core traits and behavioural manifestations, consistent with an evolutionary basis for psychopathic tendencies. These analyses provide support for a multidimensional structure within the PCL-R, and suggest that psychopathy can be viewed as an extreme variant of multiple dimensions of personality.  相似文献   

7.
8.
    
Soil, being diverse and ubiquitous, can potentially link a suspect or victim to a crime scene. Recently scientists have examined the microbial makeup of soil for determining its origin, and differentiating soil samples is well-established. However, when soil is transferred to evidence its microbial makeup may change over time, leading to false exclusions. In this research, “known” soils from diverse habitats were stored under controlled conditions, while evidence soils were aged on mock evidence. Limited quantities of soil were also assayed. Bacterial profiles were produced using next-generation sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene. Overall, known soils stored open at room temperature were more similar to evidence soils over time than were known soils stored bagged and/or frozen. Evidence soils, even as little as 1 mg, associated with the correct habitat 99% of the time, accentuating the importance of considering ex situ microbial changes in soil for its successful use as forensic evidence.  相似文献   

9.
    
Soil has the potential to be valuable forensic evidence linking a person or item to a crime scene; however, there is no established soil individualization technique. In this study, the utility of soil bacterial profiling via next‐generation sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene was examined for associating soils with their place of origin. Soil samples were collected from ten diverse and nine similar habitats over time, and within three habitats at various horizontal and vertical distances. Bacterial profiles were analyzed using four methods: abundance charts and nonmetric multidimensional scaling provided simplification and visualization of the massive datasets, potentially aiding in expert testimony, while analysis of similarities and k‐nearest neighbor offered objective statistical comparisons. The vast majority of soil bacterial profiles (95.4%) were classified to their location of origin, highlighting the potential of bacterial profiling via next‐generation sequencing for the forensic analysis of soil samples.  相似文献   

10.
The construction of typologies of criminal behavior can benefit from the use of multidimensional analytic methods. Yet while some studies have applied such techniques to crime data (e.g., Shortet al, 1963; Nutch and Bloombaum, 1968; Chaiken and Chaiken, 1982), few have examined the assumptions of these methods as they apply to arrest histories. We argue that arrest histories represent a special form of data that are not ideally suited to standard multidimensional analyses. An examination of the different theoretical assumptions of factor analysis, multidimensional scaling, and variance centroid scaling (a form of correspondence analysis) reveals marked difierences in what is being uncovered by the analysis. In general, these claims are supported by an application of each technique to the arrest histories of 767 chronic juvenile delinquents.  相似文献   

11.
Abstract

This paper discusses the development of a filter model for prioritizing possible links in dwelling burglary. The filters utilize the central aspects of crime scene information that is available and accessible to investigators in burglary, namely geo-spatial, temporal, behavioural, and dwelling information. The proposed filters were analysed using a sample of 215 dwelling burglaries committed by 43 serial burglars (i.e. 5 offences each) in order to determine the sequence in which the filters should be considered in prioritizing possible linked offences. The results indicated that the following order (i.e. better performance to worse performance) was most effective at linking offences, utilizing: (1) geo-spatial information, (2) temporal aspects, (3) behavioural information and, lastly, (4) dwelling characteristics. Specifically, the results indicated that offences in close proximity to one another should be given priority. Further, any offence occurring within a 28-day span before or after the index offence should be given priority. The paper argues that behavioural and dwelling characteristics are less effective for linking than geo-spatial and temporal information because the former two aspects are influenced significantly by situational and contextual cues on offender decision-making.  相似文献   

12.
Abstract:  Information on homicide offenders guilty of mutilation is sparse. The current study estimates the rate of mutilation of the victim's body in Finnish homicides and compares sociodemographic characteristics, crime history, life course development, psychopathy, and psychopathology of these and other homicide offenders. Crime reports and forensic examination reports of all offenders subjected to forensic examination and convicted for a homicide in 1995–2004 ( n  = 676) were retrospectively analyzed for offense and offender variables and scored with the Psychopathy Check List Revised. Thirteen homicides (2.2%) involved mutilation. Educational and mental health problems in childhood, inpatient mental health contacts, self-destructiveness, and schizophrenia were significantly more frequent in offenders guilty of mutilation. Mutilation bore no significant association with psychopathy or substance abuse. The higher than usual prevalence of developmental difficulties and mental disorder of this subsample of offenders needs to be recognized.  相似文献   

13.
Abstract: Little is known about the racial patterns of crimes committed by sexual homicide offenders (SHOs). This study examined race and age influences on victim–offender relationship for juvenile and adult SHOs. A large sample (N = 3868) from the Supplemental Homicide Reports (1976–2005) was used. Analyses of victim–offender patterns included examining victim age effects (child, adolescent, adult, and elderly). The findings revealed several race‐ and age‐based differences. Black offenders were significantly overrepresented in the SHO population. This finding held for juveniles and adults independently. White SHOs were highly likely to kill within their race, “intra‐racially” (range 91–100%) across four victim age categories, whereas Black SHOs killed both intra‐racially (range 24–82%) and inter‐racially (18–76%), with the likelihood of their killing inter‐racially increasing as the age of the victim increased. This study underscores the importance of considering victim–offender racial patterns in sexual murder investigations, and it offers practical implications for offender profiling.  相似文献   

14.
Burglary is a serious, costly, and prevalent crime but prior typologies of burglars are mostly speculative and based on qualitative data. Using a sample of 456 adult career criminals, the current study used latent profile analysis to construct a methodologically rigorous quantitative typology. Four classes of burglars emerged: young versatile, vagrant, drug-oriented, and sexual predators. All groups demonstrated significant involvement in varied forms of crime, but the sexual predator group was the most violent and had the most serious criminal careers. Connections to the criminal career literature are offered and suggestions for further empirical study of offender typologies are discussed.  相似文献   

15.
    
Abstract

Three related measures of spatial movement (sequential angulation, spatial dispersion and consistency of distance in attack target) were compared across three serial offence types: serial homicide (n=35), serial rape (n=41) and serial burglary (n=30). In each case, each offender had committed at least five offences. “Spatial dispersion”, defined as the extent to which an offender distributes his offences across either a focused or relatively more evenly distributed area, revealed that burglary was less evenly distributed (i.e. more focused) than rape and murder. “Sequential angulation”, defined as the degree of rotational movement around the home of the offender from one offence to the next, revealed that serial murderers have higher angulation scores than do rapists who, in turn, have higher angulation scores than burglars. Lastly, a comparison of the offender's consistency in the relative distance travelled from home to each attack site (“consistency of distance in attack target”) was relatively similar across the three groups. This was despite the comparison of different serial offence types from disparate geographical areas. The supposition that differences in dispersion and sequential angulation scores across crime types are related to the perceived risk of the crime has been confirmed. The specificity and the mobility of the targets are also discussed.  相似文献   

16.
Abstract: Limited information is available on racial offending patterns of sexual homicide offenders (SHOs). This study used a 30‐year U.S. Supplementary Homicide Reports sample of SHOs arrested in single‐victim situations (N = 3745). The analysis strength was used to determine whether the findings yielded meaningful patterns for offender profiling. Several important findings emerged for the juvenile offenders. Juvenile White SHOs were likely to target victims with whom they shared a mutual relationship. In contrast, Black juveniles were equally likely to murder strangers and those with whom they had prior and familial relationships. Notably, no juvenile Black SHOs were arrested for murdering intimate partners. Juvenile White SHOs were twice as likely to use edged weapons as their Black counterparts. Black juveniles, conversely, were more likely than White juveniles to use personal weapons. Beyond these findings, known victim–offender relationships and weapon used may not have significant utility for investigators in identifying the SHO race, even after controlling for offender age. Limitations and future directions are discussed.  相似文献   

17.
18.
    
Previous research has revealed the potential of soil bacterial profiling for forensic purposes; however, investigators have not thoroughly examined fluctuations in microbial profiles from soil aged on evidence. In this research, soils collected from multiple habitats were placed on evidence items and sampled over time, and then bacterial profiles were generated via next‐generation sequencing of the 16S rRNA locus. Bacterial abundance charts and nonmetric multidimensional scaling plots provided visual representation of bacterial profiles temporally, while supervised classification was used to statistically associate evidence to a source. The ex situ evidence soils displayed specific, consistent taxonomic changes as they aged, resulting in their drift in multidimensional space, but never toward a different habitat. Ninety‐five percent of the 364 evidentiary profiles statistically classified to the correct habitat, with misclassification generally stemming from evidence type and increased age. Ultimately, understanding bacterial changes that occur temporally in ex situ soils should enhance their use in forensic investigations.  相似文献   

19.
    
The plot of the popular movie How to Train Your Dragon includes several features that are paralleled in the efforts of programme designers and treatment providers who work with the highest risk offenders in criminal justice systems. This introduction to the special feature on programmes for high-risk offenders notes that there are important differences in how treatments are provided for offenders with varying levels of risk, need, and responsivity. It asks if what is known about effective offender intervention – much of it derived from moderately risky offenders – applies to those who are thought to be at high risk of new criminal activity. It observes that the relative lack of intervention theory for these offenders provides an important justification for a feature that focuses primarily on describing a range of these interventions and their theoretical underpinnings. The papers that follow are then introduced.  相似文献   

20.
This paper presents a reanalysis of the Ahamad case study of 18 types of offenses. The suggested method is a nonmetric multidimensional scaling type called smallest-space analysis (SSA-I) which uncovers findings that were not expressed explicitly by the principal-components method used by Ahamad.  相似文献   

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