Multidimensional scaling and the analysis of sexual offence behaviour: a reply to Sturidsson et al.

Abstract

Sturidsson et al. (Psychology, Crime & Law, 12, 221–230, 2006) published an article on the replicability of early multidimensional scaling (MDS) behavioural research by Canter and Heritage (Journal of Forensic Psychiatry, 1, 185–212, 1990). Sturidsson et al. were unable to find a ‘readily apparent, simple interpretation’ of their MDS solution and therefore suggested that the MDS approach may be flawed as a device for interpreting sexual assault. The current paper explains how the methods employed by Sturidsson et al. represent an incorrect use of MDS, specifically in their input of Jaccard similarity data into the MDS (ALSCAL) procedure in SPSS as opposed to the correct MDS (PROXSCAL) procedure. A comparative example is used to illustrate how adopting the ALSCAL procedure will result in an inverse MDS solution, where objects appearing closer together are more dissimilar, making interpretation of the MDS plot meaningless in this context. The current paper discusses this methodological flaw in greater depth and in the context of behavioural investigative research using MDS in general. It concludes with some general guidelines in utilizing the MDS procedure in SPSS specific to criminal profiling research.     

Using multidimensional scaling for the analysis of sexual offence behaviour: A replication and some cautionary notes

Abstract

Crime scene profiling has received considerable attention, particularly in popular media. First, since low inter-rater reliability would affect the validity of profiling, we tested inter-rater agreement for 33 variables often used in manuals for the coding of crime-related behaviour. Thirty cases were chosen randomly from 146 cases of assault rape with unknown male offenders in Sweden during 1990–1994. Second, we used multidimensional scaling (MDS) with all 146 cases to replicate earlier work by Canter and Heritage (Journal of Forensic Psychiatry, 1, 185–212, 1990) regarding motivational dimensions in unknown assault rapists. On average, inter-rater reliability was good; physical behaviours were more reliably coded than were verbal behaviours. However, a two-dimensional MDS solution with the motivational dimensions suggested by Canter and Heritage was not replicated. We argue for better empirical support for the inclusion of specific variables in coding formats for crime scene information. This is particularly important for analyses like the MDS, since the number, representativity, and intercorrelations of such variables could affect results considerably.     

Dynamic risk and sexual offending: the conundrum of assessment

ABSTRACT

The potential to reduce sexual victimisation, promote community safety, and decrease incarceration costs has resulted in considerable progress in terms of how we understand and predict sexual recidivism. And yet, the past decade has seen a degree of fragmentation emerge as research attention has shifted away from relative risk prediction (with its focus on static risk factors) to the identification of factors capable of reducing risk through intervention (i.e. dynamic risk). Although static and dynamic risk are often treated as orthogonal constructs [Beech, A. R., & Craig, L. A. (2012). The current status of static and dynamic factors in sexual offender risk assessment. Journal of Aggression, Conflict and Peace Research, 4(4), 169–185. doi:10.1108/17596591211270671], there are arguments to support a claim that the two are in fact functionally related [see Ward, T. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: Scientific kinds or predictive constructs. Psychology, Crime & Law (in 22(01–02), 2–16); Ward, T., & Beech, A. R. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: A theoretical dead-end? Psychology, Crime & Law, 21(2), 100–113. This discussion clearly affects how we assess dynamic risk. This review considered several commonly used methods of assessment and the evidence offered for their predictive accuracy. Of note were differences in the predictive accuracy of single psychometric measures versus composite scores of dynamic risk domains and the conventions used for establishing effect sizes for risk assessment tools.     

A Commentary on Ward and Stewart's Model of Human Needs

Abstract

It is often assumed that offenders employ socially desirable responding when completing self-report questionnaires, thereby invalidating such measures. The aim of this study is to examine the extent that sexual offenders employ socially desirable responding and the impact that socially desirable responding, as measured by the Balanced Inventory of Desirable Responding-6 (BIDR: 6, Paulhus, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 46, 598–609, 1984), has on self-report measures. The sample comprised 1730 adult males, all convicted and serving a sentence for a sexual offence. The entire sample had completed a set of self-report measures used to identify treatment needs, and examine progress in treatment. The results indicate that the extent of socially desirable responding is smaller than assumed, and its impact on a number of self-report measures is lower than expected. Furthermore, lower levels of risk of sexual re-offending were significantly associated with higher scores on the impression management subscale. We suggest that impression management should be viewed as more of a trait-like tendency rather than a validity check, and the use of this scale in determining whether or not to interpret other self-report instruments should be questioned. The present study also indicates that self-report questionnaires used with forensic populations may be accurate and valid. Implications for research and practice are discussed.     

A study of stranger rapists from the English high security hospitals

Abstract

Heterogeneity hinders our understanding of sexual violence; but does this problem extend to stranger rape and, if so, would the construction of homogeneous subtypes advance our understanding of this crime and aid criminal investigations and clinical practice? To answer these questions, 41 stranger rapists from the English high security hospitals were examined using version 3 of the Massachusetts Treatment Centre rapist typology (MTC:R3) and multidimensional scaling (MDS). The MTC:R3 suggested that sexual desire and opportunism were the primary motivations for these men, but that proportionately more psychopaths were violent and sadistic. In accordance with previous research, the men experienced problematic childhoods and displayed high rates of criminality and psychiatric morbidity in adulthood. However, MDS found that rapist histories and offence behaviours generally divide into sexual and violent themes. These results have important implications for theory, criminal investigations and clinical practice.     

Impairment in the processing of fear gaze in adolescents with callous–unemotional traits

ABSTRACT

Callous and unemotional traits affect a subgroup of children and adolescents with severe conduct problems, characterized by lack of guilt, remorse, emotionality, and empathy, which trigger a chronic and severe antisocial pathway. One aim of the current study was to investigate if the results found by Dadds and his colleagues (Dadds et al., [2006]. Attention to the eyes and fear-recognition deficits in child psychopathy. British Journal of Psychiatry, 189, 280–281. doi:10.1192/bjp.bp.105.018150, [2008]. Reduced eye gaze explains ‘fear blindness’ in childhood psychopathic traits. Journal of the American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry, 47(4), 455–463. doi:10.1097/CHI.0b013e31816407f1) in the processing of the eye region of a fearful face in subjects with high levels of callous–unemotional traits could be replicated using event-related potentials (ERPs). From a sample of 48 male adolescent offenders, those who presented high CU (HCU) scores and low CU (LCU) scores were selected. Psychophysiological results show that HCU traits are associated with deficits in processing the eye region of fearful faces. These findings are discussed below.     

A cognitive-based indicator of deviant sexual interest: Concurrent validation of the Stroop task

ABSTRACT

One of the strongest predictors of sexual recidivism is sexual deviance [Hanson, R. K., & Bussière, M. T. (1998). Predicting relapse: A meta-analysis of sexual offender recidivism studies. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 66, 348–362. doi:10.1037/0022-006X.66.2.348]. Phallometric testing, the most commonly used method of assessing sexual deviance, has elicited methodological and ethical criticisms, while self-report is vulnerable to social desirability and poor insight. To overcome these limitations, researchers have utilised cognitive measures, including a modified Stroop task, to measure deviant sexual interests among sex offenders using victim selection as a comparison measure. However, the results have been inconclusive. The current study explored the validity of the modified Stroop task as a measure of deviant sexual interest among a non-offending sample of 570 females and 223 male participants, using self-report as the comparison measure. The results indicated a significant gender difference in concurrent validity; there was a significant relationship between self-reported deviance and deviant word Stroop performance for male but not for female respondents, suggesting the Stroop is a viable option for assessing sexual deviance among males. Implications of these findings are discussed relative to sexual recidivism risk assessment.     

An investigation into the applicability of the Ward and Siegert Pathways Model of child sexual abuse with Internet offenders

Abstract

This study examined the applicability of the Ward and Siegert (Psychology, Crime & Law, 8, 319–351, 2002) Pathways Model of Sexual Offending to a sample of Internet offenders. The Pathways Model identifies five etiological pathways, each with primary psychological deficits that interact to create a vulnerability to sexual offending behavior. The applicability of this model was tested on a sample of 72 cases drawn from a community sample in England and Wales, via the analysis of primary and associated psychometric indicators of pathway membership. Sixty per cent of men in the sample were found to display dysfunctional psychological mechanisms (43 cases). Two pathways were found to be particularly prominent: the intimacy deficits pathway and the emotional dysregulation pathway. The implications for future treatment and the appropriateness of current treatment programs for this population are examined in the light of these findings.     

Assessment of child witness statements using criteria-based content analysis (CBCA): The effects of age,verbal ability,and interviewer's emotional style

Abstract

The goal of the study was to determine what effects age, verbal ability (assessed with WISC-R Vocabulary), and interviewer's emotional style would have on the occurrence of Criteria-Based Content Analysis (CBCA) criteria. Children (N = 68) from three different age-groups (7–8, 10–11, and 13–14 years) made both a true and a false statement concerning a mildly traumatic event. The correct classification rate was 66%. Age and verbal ability were found to increase the occurrence of some of the CBCA criteria irrespective of the truthfulness of the statements. Also, different criteria differentiated between true and false statements in different age groups. Interviewer behaviour also affected the occurrence of the criteria. It is concluded that the CBCA should not be used in court proceedings in its present form.     

Analyzing block randomized studies: the example of the Jersey City drug market analysis experiment

Objectives

While block randomized designs have become more common in place-based policing studies, there has been relatively little discussion of the assumptions employed and their implications for statistical analysis. Our paper seeks to illustrate these assumptions, and controversy regarding statistical approaches, in the context of one of the first block randomized studies in criminal justice—the Jersey City Drug Market Analysis Project (DMAP).

Methods

Using DMAP data, we show that there are multiple approaches that can be used in analyzing block randomized designs, and that those approaches will yield differing estimates of statistical significance. We develop outcomes using both models with and without interaction, and utilizing both Type I and Type III sums-of-squares approaches. We also examine the impacts of using randomization inference, an approach for estimating p values not based on approximations using normal distribution theory, to adjust for possible small N biases in estimating standard errors.

Results

The assumptions used for identifying the analytic approach produce a comparatively wide range of p values for the main DMAP program impacts on hot spots. Nonetheless, the overall conclusions drawn from our re-analysis remain consistent with the original analyses, albeit with more caution. Results were similar to the original analyses under different specifications supporting the identification of diffusion of benefits effects to nearby areas.

Conclusions

The major contribution of our article is to clarify statistical modeling in unbalanced block randomized studies. The introduction of blocking adds complexity to the models that are estimated, and care must be taken when including interaction effects in models, whether they are ANOVA models or regression models. Researchers need to recognize this complexity and provide transparent and alternative estimates of study outcomes.

     

Crime scene actions and offender characteristics in arsons

Purpose. Crime scene actions displayed by offenders in arsons were analysed in relation to offender characteristics and self‐reported motives. Methods. Data were drawn from an official police database and consisted of a random sample of arsons occurring in Finland between 1990 and 2001 (N = 189). The structure of dichotomous variables derived through a content analysis of crime scene actions and offender characteristics was analysed using non‐metric multidimensional scaling (MDS) analyses. Results. The analyses revealed four separate crime scene action types, with thematic emphasis on either expressive or instrumental motivation and the target being either a person or object. The MDS solution for offender characteristics suggested four types of offenders: Self‐destructive, Serial, Criminal, and Adolescent. In order to analyse the associations between action and characteristics themes, each case was assigned to one of the action and characteristic themes or a hybrid based on the frequency of variables present from each theme. Several statistically significant associations between the action and characteristic themes were found. Self‐reported motives were also analysed in relation to the themes. Conclusions. The results support the thematic classification of arsonists presented in Canter and Fritzon (1998). The results are discussed with regard to earlier research and deducing offender characteristics based on crime scene actions.     

Hope in the treatment of sexual offenders: the potential application of hope theory

Abstract

The present paper attempts to demonstrate how hope theory is conceptually consistent with current positive approaches to sexual offender treatment. Hope theory and its components of goals, pathways thinking, and agentic thinking is reviewed as defined by Snyder and his colleagues. A theoretical relationship exists between the role of hope and many aspects of sexual offending and treatment. Developmental course, attachment style, and the formation and maintenance of coping styles are reviewed as they relate to hope and sexual offending. A framework by which to apply hope theory to pre-treatment, treatment, and more specifically, self-management or relapse prevention for sexual offenders is proposed. Emphasis is placed on the use of techniques that target hope components, particularly in pre-treatment programs.     

Role call: sex,gender roles,and intimate partner violence

ABSTRACT

Intimate partner violence (IPV) continues to be viewed in gendered and heteronormative ways. Stanziani, Cox, and Coffey (2018, Adding insult to injury: Sex, sexual orientation, and juror decision-making in a case of intimate partner violence. Journal of Homosexuality, 65(10), 1325–1350) presented participants with a case of alleged IPV while manipulating the sex and sexual orientation of the aggressor/victim dyad. Results suggested participants view violence perpetrated by a man against a woman most abhorrently. The current study replicated and expanded that study, exploring how gender role beliefs influence participant decision-making. Female participants held more adverse attitudes towards IPV when a male assaulted a female. Further, participant gender role beliefs influenced decision-making. Specifically, males who endorsed higher levels of hegemonic masculinity perceived the crime to be less serious, while females who endorsed the same beliefs perceived the defendant as less likely to benefit from treatment. Overall, results suggest individual beliefs regarding gender roles and masculinity may influence their perceptions of IPV, regardless of the gender and sexual orientation of the aggressor and victim.     

Childhood attention deficit hyperactive disorder (ADHD) symptoms and adolescent female sexual victimisation: mediating and moderating effects of risky behaviours

Abstract

The mediating effects of risky behaviours on the linkage between childhood attention deficit hyperactive disorder (ADHD) symptoms and adolescent sexual victimisation in college women were examined using structural equation modelling (n=374). The moderating effects of timing onset of risky behaviours were also examined. General risky behaviour was not a significant mediator. Rather, findings supported a specificity hypothesis suggesting risky sexual behaviour is a better explanation of the ADHD symptoms–sexual victimisation association than is general risky behaviour. Early onset of alcohol or marijuana use, consensual sexual activity and staying out all night interacted with childhood ADHD symptoms to increase general risky behaviour and sexual risk-taking. We conclude that to understand the risk for sexual victimisation in adolescent females with childhood ADHD symptoms it would be advisable to focus specifically on sexual risk-taking.     

Measuring interrogative suggestibility in children: Reliability and validity of the bonn test of statement suggestibility

Abstract

The present paper describes three studies that examined false confessions in the laboratory. Studies 1 (N=56) and 2 (N=9) relied on the by now classic computer crash paradigm introduced by Kassin and Kiechel (Psychological Science, 7, 125–128, 1996). Study 3 (N=12) employed a novel paradigm in which undergraduate participants were falsely accused of exam fraud. Our data indicate that false confessions do occur, even when conditions become more ecologically valid. Furthermore, we explored whether individual differences in compliance, suggestibility, fantasy proneness, dissociation, and cognitive failures are related to false confessions. Of these, only fantasy proneness was associated with false confessions.     

Celebrity worship,addiction and criminality

Abstract

Two studies assessed the relationship between celebrity worship and (i) addiction (n=1359) and (ii) criminality (n=2158). Overall Celebrity Attitude Scale (CAS) scores correlated positively with Eysenck Personality Questionnaire – Revised (EPQ-R) Addiction and Criminality sub-scale scores. In further support of the absorption–addiction model of celebrity worship (McCutcheon, Lange, & Houran, 2002, Conceptualization and measurement of celebrity worship. British Journal of Psychology, 93, 67–87.), addiction correlated positively with one component of celebrity worship, and criminality correlated positively with all four components produced by the current work. Different types of celebrity worship were associated with preferences for celebrities from particular domains. For instance, those scoring highly on the “Deleterious Imitation” component favoured music celebrities, as opposed to political figures. It was concluded that pathological celebrity worshippers are seeking a personal identity and are drawn to particular celebrities. Imitating these celebrities can have negative consequences for the worshipper.     

Sexual abuse by educators: a comparison between male and female teachers who sexually abuse students

ABSTRACT

The study aimed to identify the differences in case characteristics and typologies of female and male teachers who perpetrated sexual abuse on students. Decisions of sexual misconduct reports in England from June 2006 to December 2016 were used. Quantitative and qualitative content analysis was conducted on 20 cases of male and female teacher sexual misconduct (N?=?40). Regarding case characteristics, most were secondary school or college teachers, mid-career, with victims of the opposite sex. For differences, male teachers were older and more likely to have: perpetrated more severe and lengthier sexual abuse and previously received warnings. Interestingly, females and males were similar across the preliminary typology: minimisers and deniers; poor mental health or stressors; and young, early career. However, a fourth group of females emerged: “I was overpowered”. The study furthers the understanding of sexual misconduct by teachers and should assist in the development of policies, guidelines, and legislation around prevention.     

Impact of early intervention for youth with problematic sexual behaviors and their caregivers

ABSTRACT

Targeting broad implementation of early intervention services has a high potential for impact given the prevalence of child sexual abuse committed by youth and the low recidivism rate following effective interventions. This multisite quasi-experimental study examined the outcomes for 320 youth ages 10–14 years and their caregivers who participated in community-based problematic sexual behavior – cognitive behavior therapy (PSB-CBT). Significant reductions in PSB with a large effect size (e.g. t(126)?=?11.69, p?<?.001, d?=?2.08) were found. No site differences were found, despite racial and regional diversity. Nonsexual behaviour problems, emotional problems, and trauma symptoms also significantly improved. Positive outcomes extended to caregivers. Recommended next steps include rigorous strategies for examining the impact of widespread implementation of evidence-based early intervention programmes on the prevention of sexual abuse, complemented with thoughtful efforts to develop and implement policies and procedures that improve the safety and well-being of all children in the community.