Democratic Accountability and Foreign Security Policy: Theory and Evidence from India

Identifying the links between democracy and foreign security policy has proven elusive. This paper engages this research agenda by developing a novel theory of “accountability environments” and exploring it in the case of India. We hypothesize that the varying electoral salience of foreign security policy and the clarity of responsibility for policy outcomes combine to create different accountability environments in which politicians operate. Accountability environments determine the incentives that politicians face for devoting effort to external security issues. We illustrate the argument with evidence from India over time and across issue areas (India, Pakistan, and defense procurement/development). Scholars need to incorporate the complexities and diversity of representation and rule into the study of democratic politics and international relations.     

中亚国家:国际战略、外交政策与国家安全

分析影响中亚五国制定国际战略、外交政策和国家安全战略的各种因素,简介各国国际战略、外交政策和国家安全战略的异同点及其原因,以及中亚五国外交和国家安全观的特点,指出维护国家利益和民族利益是各国制定国际战略、外交政策和国家安全战略的出发点和核心.在当前国际形势相当复杂和三股恶势力肆虐中亚的情况下,中亚各国国家安全战略正面临巨大的考验.     

美国亚洲政策的"指南"--《美国在亚洲的角色:美国人的观点》评介

每逢总统大选 ,美国各大思想库便会开足马力 ,连续出台各种战略和政策建议报告 ,为新一届政府提供建言 ,期望对美国未来的内外政策施加各自的影响。对于 2 0 0 0年的跨世纪大选 ,各思想库更是高度重视 ,充分准备。其中 ,亚洲基金会 (ＡｓｉａＦｏｕｎｄａ ｔｉｏｎ)早在 1999年就已着手实施题为“美国在亚洲的角色”的研究项目 ,并于 2 0 0 1年 3月将《美国在亚洲的角色 :美国人的观点》和《美国在亚洲的角色 :亚洲人的观点》两大研究报告分别以书的形式正式出版。《美国在亚洲的角色 :美国人的观点》(Ａｍｅｒｉｃａ’ｓＲｏｌｅｉｎＡｓｉ…     

关于美国对华政策和中美关系的几点思考

如何正确认识错综复杂的中美关系,而不因一时一事的变化作出错误的判断?有五条带有规律性的原则应予以遵循,从而防止研究和观察美对华政策和中美关系中的片面性.     

中亚国家现行外贸政策及其评价

研究和掌握中亚国家多变的经贸政策是我国政府和企业开拓中亚市场,加强经贸合作之必需.本文在阐明中亚各国关税和非关税外贸政策的基础上进行了比较分析和评价,最后得出几点结论:中亚五国目前的市场开放程度总体上高于中国市场的开放程度;技术性贸易壁垒和海关程序是目前中国与中亚国家贸易的主要障碍;中亚国家一些外贸政策和措施与世界贸易组织的要求还存在着较大的差距.     

Keeping a Foot in the Door: Britain's China Policy, 1945-50

Based on Britain and China 1945-1950 (DBPO, 2002), this article examines four major themes in Britain's China policy between 1945 and 1950: British attitudes towards Chinese communism and China's civil war, Anglo-American relations over China, attempts to restore and sustain British commerce in China, and the future of Hong Kong. The central feature of policy was to 'keep a foot in the door', even under a communist government, to protect British interests. Only modest success was achieved. British officials were divided over the issue of Chinese communism and Britain miscalculated the timescale in the ending of the civil war. The US administration proved largely uncooperative over China, and British commerce was eventually squeezed out. Hong Kong survived as a British colony. Amidst the considerable thought given to the future of Hong Kong, and to Britain's ability to defend it, intelligence reported that the communists had no plans to seize the colony.     

以色列对外政策趋向及其后果

2010年5月,以色列拦截国际人道主义救援船队事件,印证了以色列政府在涉及自身安全问题上的一贯强硬和一意孤行,既折射出其面临的安全和外交困境,也反映了以色列继续奉行以"安全至上"为基本原则的国家安全战略.袭船事件持续"发酵",牵动中东地区和国际社会相关角色的"神经",势必对以安全环境及地区局势产生深远影响.     

试论奥巴马外交的得与失

奥巴马上台后推出的外交新政,经过一年的扩充与演化,基本上形成了一套比较完整的外交思想与政策。其主要特点是在坚持美国世界领导地位的前提下,以谋求多边合作为基调,以运用巧实力为基础,以柔性务实策略为基本手段。检点一年来的实践,奥巴马外交在一定程度上改善了美国的国际形象与对外关系,但由于其未能跳出美国独家支配的全球战略框架,成效和作用有限。     

Foreign Policy and its People: Transforming the Apartheid Department of Foreign Affairs

Just as apartheid was ending, South Africa’s foreign relations witnessed a massive expansion. However, the Department of Foreign Affairs that was to manage this change found itself undergoing institutional transformations of both personnel and ideology. Studies on South African foreign policy have mostly neglected this transformation, which has had a considerable influence on the content and direction of South African foreign policy. In discussing this seldom-studied issue, this analysis unearths the discussions and debates that took place between various stakeholders to bring about transformation in the Department. In doing so, it argues that two different cultures of diplomacy came together in forming the new Department of Foreign Affairs. These cultures have had a significant impact on the thrust and direction of post-apartheid South Africa foreign policy.     

Setting a Course: Congressional Foreign Policy Entrepreneurs In Post-World War II U.S. Foreign Policy

"Congressional foreign policy entrepreneurs" are those legislators who initiate their own foreign policy agendas. These individuals seek to frame policy discussions and mobilize public and interest group interest; to direct congressional agendas toward specific foreign policy issues; to structure and influence the formulation of foreign policies by the executive branch; to revise, refocus, or reformulate foreign policies; to generate alternative and replacement foreign policies; and to fill policy vacuums with their own preferred foreign policies. This paper examines the evolution and impact of such entrepreneurs across the periods of the Cold War Consensus (1946–1967), the Cold War Dissensus (1968–1989), and the Post-Cold War (1990–2000). The paper first provides an overview of the concept of foreign policy entrepreneurs. It then turns to case studies of entrepreneurial initiatives from three prolific entrepreneurs whose careers span the post-World War II era: Senators Jacob Javits, Edward Kennedy, and Christopher Dodd. Together, the overview and cases shed light on the different avenues and activities that entrepreneurs use to address their preferred issues and the impact entrepreneurs have on policy, as well as highlight changes in both over time.     

苏联外交的反思与俄罗斯对外政策

俄罗斯人对苏联时期外交政策的反思 ,是俄罗斯外交思想渊源的重要组成部分。对苏联时期外交政策的反思在戈尔巴乔夫执政时期随着“民主化”、“公开性”的推进即已展开 ,并且成为苏联外交战略调整的重要推动力。这种反思在苏联解体后的俄罗斯继续进行着。如果说在戈尔巴乔夫时期苏联对外政策的反思主要是为戈尔巴乔夫的外交新思维提供理论依据的话 ,那么 ,到这一时期 ,这种反思又构成为俄罗斯外交形成和发展的重要背景。     

日本民主党外交政策调整的动因及其展望

民主党执政一年来,前后两任首相所推行的外交政策调整幅度甚大.究其原因,首先是缘于美国在基地问题上施加的强大压力;同时,也凸显了日本精英层固有的战略思维的局限性,其舆论导向促成了民主党外交政策的急转弯;再次,它是民主党更新外交安保团队的结果.日本学者将这一现象称之为民主党的自民党化.日本外交政策出现的失衡局面,势将损害日本的根本利益,导致日本政坛开始新一轮的动荡.     

Public Opinion and Foreign Policy: Elite Beliefs as a Mediating Variable

Scholars have become increasingly interested in the nature of potential linkage processes between public opinion and foreign policy. The literature on elite beliefs suggests that the beliefs decision makers hold concerning public opinion may have an important influence on this relationship. This article argues that how decision makers perceive and react to public opinion depends upon their views of the proper relationship between public opinion and foreign policy choices. A theoretical framework to analyze beliefs is suggested containing two dimensions: (1) normative beliefs relating to whether it is desirable for input from public opinion to affect foreign policy choices; and (2) practical beliefs regarding whether public support of a policy is necessary for it to be successful. To explore this issue, this article reports the findings of a qualitative content analysis of Dwight D. Eisenhower's and John Foster Dulles's public opinion beliefs. Predictions of behavior are tested in a case study of the September 1954 Chinese offshore islands crisis. The results of this analysis suggest elite beliefs regarding public opinion may provide an important intervening variable worthy of further examination.     

冷战后美国对非洲政策和国际关系理论

本文首先回顾三大体系理论,然后从体系层次和国家层次分析美国对非洲的外交政策.结论是,相比而言,现实主义是解释美国对非政策的最好的体系理论;只有将体系层次的分析和国家层次的分析结合起来,才能更好地理解美国的非洲政策.     

Scientific Outlook on Development and China＇s Foreign Policy

More than half a century has passed since the founding of the People＇s Republic of China. There have been successes as well as failures in China＇s policies and practices at home and abroad. The failures are stepping stones for success; lessons drawn from errors lead to truth. Chinese leader Hu Jintao recently spoke about ＂Scientific Outlook on Development, ＂＇ a summary of past history and an important guiding principle for China＇s economic and social development both now and in future. The authors believe that this is a major development in China＇s strategic thinking following Deng Xiaoping＇s ＂Reform and Opening Up＂ and Jiang Zemin＇s ＂Three Representatives＂ and that it should be upheld and applied to foreign policy decision making.     

中国对中东欧国家政策研究报告

冷战结束后 ,中东欧国家摆脱“雅尔塔体系”的束缚 ,其地缘政治和地缘经济发生重要变化 ,欧盟、美国以及俄罗斯都已把对中东欧政策作为各自战略的重要组成部分。国家安全利益和经济利益是中东欧国家对外政策的基本出发点 ,与北约和欧盟结盟、发展与俄罗斯等周边国家的友好关系是其外交政策选择的优先点。中国与中东欧国家的关系具有友好传统 ,近年来出现良好发展势头。随着中东欧国家入盟的实现 ,今后中国对这一地区的政策将纳入对欧政策的整体框架之中 ,中国应更加积极主动推动与之关系的进一步发展。     

Global Television News and Foreign Policy: Debating the CNN Effect

This study investigates the origins and development of the cable news network (CNN) effect hypothesis. It reveals an ongoing debate among politicians, officials, and journalists who are involved in the political processes that this hypothesis attempts to explain, and also among scholars who have been studying it. Debates have been conducted both within and among these groups on the meaning and validity of the CNN effect, but none has contributed significantly to resolving the issue. On the contrary, these debates have presented contradicting statements that have only created confusion and misunderstanding. This study presents lessons from the decade-long effort to explore the CNN effect and projects a new agenda for more useful approaches towards different effects of global communication, apart from those covered by the present controversial hypothesis.     

内贾德总统第二任期伊朗内外政策评析

在伊朗,总统相当于真正意义上总统制国家的政府总理.在2009年的大选中,内贾德总统由于得到了中下层民众的广泛支持而再次当选.在新的任期内,内贾德总统的激进平民主义施政风格和具体措施仍有助于纾缓民怨,却无力解决伊朗社会发展滞后的根本问题,并可能对伊朗的国家发展产生负面影响.因为得到了最高领袖的有力支持,也因为确实改善了伊朗的国际境遇,内贾德总统未来的对外施政环境较为宽松,对外政策还将延续既往的强硬姿态和政策框架,并有望在营造地区性联盟以抗衡西方压力方面取得较大进展;伊美关系可能进一步缓和但通向这一目标的道路依然漫长,伊核问题还将维持斗而不破的局面.