美韩同盟与未来中韩关系的战略框架

随着中韩关系特别是政治安全关系的发展,中韩关系与美韩同盟之间的矛盾可能更加突出。美国一直对中韩关系的发展保持警惕,而韩国则坚持以美韩同盟为其外交安保政策的基石,这些都是提升中韩关系的深层次挑战。中韩关系要摆脱美国因素是不可能的,未来中韩关系的战略框架也必须与中美韩多边关系框架,甚至是整个半岛的地缘政治框架结合在一起考虑。而且,为了在中美韩博弈中占得先机,中国必须对这种未来战略框架进行前瞻性的规划和设计。本文认为,出于中国及地区整体利益的考虑,半岛的未来既要摆脱基于冷战经验的对抗式两极格局,也不能寄希望于那种多极均势下的脆弱和平。从长远来看,只有包括所有各方在内的地区集体安全机制才是稳定与和平的长久保障。美韩同盟可以成为这一机制的起点但又必须被超越,这就需要相关各方就此达成战略妥协,就地区未来做出彼此可以接受的决定。考虑到中美间的深层次不信任,韩国应该在中美间发挥沟通者而不是均衡者也不是中立者的作用,未来中韩关系应该在这种新背景下予以重新设计和发展。     

东亚金融合作的进展与未来的选择

近年来包括金融合作在内的东亚地区合作取得了一些实质性进展.本文论述了在"10+3"框架下东亚金融合作的发展趋向和前景,并提出了一些对策建议.     

US-Japan Alliance: The Political Dimension

George W. Bush was inaugurated as the new president of the United States on 20 January 2001. How will the change in personnel influence Washington's approach to its relationship with East Asia and, in particular, with Japan? Takashi Oka, a Washington-based consultant to the Liberal Party of Japan who was for many years a correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor, considers this question in the following article. Oka argues that the strategic importance of the US-Japan alliance has not lessened with the end of the Cold War,and that in order to confront the security challenges of the twenty-first century, Japan's position within the US-Japan alliance needs to change from that of a protected subordinate to that of an equal partner. For this to be possible, a politician with sufficient vision and power, someone with a clear foreign policy, who is strong enough in domestic politics to carry out that policy, needs to emerge in Japan.     

美韩同盟再定义:一种联盟理论的视角

冷战结束以来的美韩关系出现了诸多松散和变动的迹象,然而传统的联盟理论似乎难以提供合理的解释,制度主义和建构主义的理论也只是提供了某些有益的分析视角。本文试图借助于“利益平衡”与“安全平衡”的双平衡作为逻辑分析的基点,从而构建一种“威权式联盟”(authoritative alliance)的理论,并力图以此对美韩同盟当前的演变形态与重新定义的基本方向做出初步的理论分析。     

The Financial Crisis and America's Capital Dependence on Japan and China

In the Post-Bretton Woods financial system (1972–2009), the United States has been able to borrow heavily from savings-rich countries like Japan and China. Its access to international capital has allowed the US to cover years of extravagant spending and to enjoy unmatched levels of power and plenty. For lenders, like Japan and China, access to the huge US export market has stimulated aggregate demand, which, in turn, has facilitated economic growth, high rates of employment, infrastructure expansion, and technological development.

Notwithstanding the mutual benefits, the massive scale of Post-Bretton Woods imbalances has placed the financial system under stress. Such macro-economic imbalances usually require a major rebalancing—either immediately through a financial crash or gradually through a “soft” landing.

The financial implosion in 2008 constituted a crash landing. To arrest the steep slide into a possible world depression, most of the leading economies, including especially the United States, have taken bold monetary and fiscal measures. However, these expansionary measures will deepen deficits and generate strong inflationary headwinds while placing pressures on currency exchange rates.

Following the 2008 financial earthquake and its wave of after-shocks, America's access to foreign capital is apt to become more restricted and increasingly expensive. This will erode one of the central structural sources of US power—its extraordinary fiscal flexibility, monetary autonomy, and global economic clout. With a weakened financial superpower, the world may become less prosperous, less stable, less predictable, and considerably more dangerous.     

The Sudan: Past, Present and Future

Sir Angus Gillan Served in the Sudan Administration between1909-1939. He is now Director of the Empire Section of the BritishCouncil. This article is an abridgment of a lecture he gave,under the chairmanship of Mr. A.R.I. Mellor, at a combined meetingof the Royal African Society and the Royal Empire Society onthe 26th April. Sir Angus first gave reasons for the world'scomparative ignorance of the Sudan, broken only by events leadingup to the three dates: Khartoum 1885, Omdurman 1898, and Abyssinia1940.     

中部地区核心城市都市圈发展与消费结构优化——以大南昌都市圈为例

考察郑州、武汉、合肥和大南昌都市圈这四大中部地区都市圈,从边际消费倾向、需求收入弹性、需求价格弹性三个方面比较其核心城市消费结构,发现大南昌都市圈核心城市中城镇居民的生活水平逐年改善,正在由以生存型消费为主的基本阶段跨越到以发展型消费为主的注重消费质量的阶段,但其进度略落后于其他中部省份单中心都市圈的核心城市。大南昌都市圈要实现赶超,需着重增加城镇居民收入和提升供给产品质量,充分发挥消费空间,通过消费驱动的核心城市经济增长引领都市圈的发展。     

东亚货币同盟:理想与现实

东亚有可能实行某种形式的货币同盟.在开始将是实行共同单一钉住.东亚必须通过加强货币合作来推动地区货币一体化,最终建立东亚货币同盟.东亚有可能在货币一体化的机制化方面先行一步."东盟+3"合作框架对于实现某种形式的货币同盟将起到推动作用.     

韩美同盟的现状:以战略同盟构想为中心

本文旨在以李明博政府的韩美战略同盟构想为中心,对韩美同盟的现状进行探讨。李明博政府正力图将现有韩美安保同盟发展为一揽子战略同盟,以此提升国力。由于面临着霸权的现实性局限,深感全球层面的同盟合作变得更加切合实际的美国奥巴马政府正在接受这一构想,但是对于具体的方案,两国的理解并不完全一致。而这一点正是本文的要旨之所在。