美国领导:奥巴马政府《国家安全战略报告》评析

2010年美国《国家安全战略报告》拓展了国家安全的外延,强调对多种战略手段重新加以整合,尤其是对军事力量的运用做出了一定程度的限制。《报告》承认美国实力的局限性,扩大了外交接触范围,强调国际合作的重要,表达了实现"责任分担"的强烈意向。报告是对布什政府安全战略的一次较为全面的检讨与反思,体现了奥巴马政府务实、灵活的一面。但新战略以安全、繁荣、价值观与国际秩序为四大支柱,在"美国领导"下实现美国国家利益的实质并没有改变。     

中国对非战略:成功与挑战

新时期的中非关系在中非合作论坛机制的推进下健康发展,也面临诸多挑战,别是来自西方大国的挑战.西方大国在诬指中国对非搞新殖民主义的同时,紧对非战略调整.正视竞争、立足共赢、理性应对西方的挑战成为新时期中国对非战略的重要任务.     

制度创新：中国反贫困成功的关键

反贫困是世界各国的共同行动 ,也是我国政府的一贯方针。为了适应经济全球化和世贸组织的要求 ,中国必须加大反贫困的力度 ,不断创新和完善反贫困制度体系。在反贫困实践中 ,有效的制度体系必须以观念创新为先导 ,方式和手段创新为核心 ,法制完善和创新为保证 ,整合各种创新要素 ,充分发挥反贫困制度体系的整体效应     

China's Power and Will: The PRC's Military Strength and Grand Strategy

China's international behavior exhibits elements of both threat and peaceful intentions. Greatly increased defense budgets, the acquisition for more advance weapons systems, and certain pronouncements of the leadership argue for the threat scenario. Beijing's efforts to enhance the PRC's soft power, its more active participation in international problem-solving activities, and certain pronouncements of other leaders can be taken as evidence for more peaceful intentions. Even assuming that the leadership's motives are not benign, a combination of domestic weaknesses and foreign resistance could thwart them. The future is not predictable.     

A Theory of Terrorist Leadership (and its Consequences for Leadership Targeting)

States often target terrorist leaders with the belief that the leader's death or capture will cause the terrorist organization to collapse. Yet the history of this strategy of “leadership targeting” provides a mixed record—for every example of effectiveness, there are similar examples of ineffectiveness. The central question of this article is: what makes a terrorist leader important? Specifically, what does a terrorist leader do that no one else can do (or do as well) for the organization? To answer this question, I develop a theory of terrorist leadership that argues that leaders might potentially perform two main functions: they can provide inspiration and/or operational direction (or not for both). I also theorize as to how and why the provision of these functions changes over time as the organization itself changes. The consequences for leadership targeting flow naturally from this theory—when leaders provide these functions to the organization, leadership targeting is most likely to be effective. Case studies of Algeria, Peru, and Japan offer insights into why some cases of leadership targeting were effective and why others were not. The conclusion extends this model with an analysis of al-Qaeda's prospects after the death of bin Laden.     

意志力的经久较量:若干历史范例透视

四大历史事件提供了争端问题上国际经久较量的历史范例,它们是:美苏冷战史上的柏林问题争斗;中美之间就美台断交的长期较量;中苏之间就关系正常化的三大障碍的多年争执;中日之间关于日本首相参拜靖国神社的激烈对峙.对这些范例的透视和分析提供了饶有意义的启示,可予借鉴,以利中国在美国对台军售问题上业已历时约30年的对美较量.特别重要和迫切的启示在于:意志力较量是决定争端经久较量结果的根本因素;在对方对已方的根本态度已变得有利、或方向已定地趋于有利的情况下,行使意志力的目的只在于改变对方在争端问题上的立场,使之从属或符合已经或正在形成的这一根本态度;就此而言,与必须变更对方的根本态度相比,达到目的的信心可以大得多,倘若有相应的足够强劲和坚毅的意志力.这种意志力来自五个源泉:对争端所攸关的利害关系的意识;对其可能的广泛和长远效应的期望;对总体环境中争端较量的大趋向的预计和信心;争端问题上已方阵营的内部统一;政治领导者或日较量统帅的个人秉性.     

A Requiem for American Counterinsurgency

Counterinsurgency as an operational method employed by the American military to achieve policy aims at a reasonable cost in blood and treasure has failed miserably. The idea that it has worked should be buried in the ground with a requiem stating that counterinsurgency is dead. Unfortunately, a large group of writers over many years have constructed a deeply flawed narrative that suggests that it is alive and well and continues to shape and influence American foreign policy toward and activist use of American military force in the world's troubled spots.     

美国对外战略再思考--《抉择:全球统治还是全球领导》介评

当前,美国国内围绕国家安全问题正在展开独立建国以来的第三次大辩论。如果说此前诸多对布什政府对外政策持批评态度的人,一直未能提出一套有说服力的主张进而扬起一面大旗的话,那么,2004年3月出版的由美国前总统国家安全事务助理布热津斯基所著的《抉择:全球统治还是全球领导》一书显然对他们大有助益。布氏在书中从六个方面阐述了其美国对外战略再思考后的基本观点。     

俄罗斯核力量瞄准以质制胜

今年3月,美国<外交事务>杂志载文称,美正用高精度的新式隐形技术进一步使其核武库现代化,而俄罗斯核武库却在不断萎缩,美国将有能力一次性摧毁俄所有战略核力量,使其不再对美构成威慑.一石激起千层浪,俄罗斯军界、政界人士纷纷予以回击,称这只不过是美国有些人关于核实力的浪漫主义梦想.美俄双方相互叫板使俄罗斯的核力量再次成为世人关注的焦点.     

Leveraging Strength: The Pillars of American Grand Strategy in World War II

This article argues that U.S. leaders navigated their way through World War II challenges in several important ways. These included: sustaining a functional civil-military relationship; mobilizing inside a democratic, capitalist paradigm; leveraging the moral high ground ceded to them by their enemies; cultivating their ongoing relationship with the British, and embracing a kind of adaptability and resiliency that facilitated their ability to learn from mistakes and take advantage of their enemies’ mistakes.     

宗教:解读美国政治的新视角--《逐渐缩小的分界线:美国政治中正在变化的宗教角色》介评

宗教在美国政治中扮演着重要角色 ,宗教团体已是一支“成长中的力量” ,从 2 0世纪 6 0年代以来 ,它在政治中的作用变得越来越直接 ,并将在新世纪继续发挥作用。美国布鲁金斯学会 2 0 0 0年出版的《逐渐缩小的分界线 :美国政治中正在变化的宗教角色》(ＴｈｅＤｉｍｉｎｉｓｈｉｎｇＤｉｖｉｄｅ :Ｒｅｌｉｇｉｏｎ’ｓＣｈａｎｇｉｎｇＲｏｌｅｉｎＡｍｅｒｉｃａｎＰｏｌｉｔｉｃｓ)一书对此进行了深入分析。首先 ,该书对美国宗教现况进行了归纳 ,认为美国主流社会在朝世俗化方向发展 ,民众对宗教的感情日益淡薄。与 2 0世纪 6 0年代相比 ,…     

American foreign policy: A look ahead

The author reviews recent foreign policy achievements of the U.S. government. Relations with PRC and USSR are seen as having set the stage for further lessening of hostilities. The strong centres of power emerging in Europe and Japan are seen as requiring new frameworks for increasing cooperation, particularly in the areas of military deterrence vis‐à‐vis adversarial power centers and in the establishment of new and more equitable monetary and trading relationships. Relations with Third World countries are discussed. A large thrust of American foreign policy in the coming years is seen as devoted to the creation of a stable international system which is less dependent on the contribution of the United States.     

A Qualified Success for Collective Security: The Concert of Europe and the Belgian Crisis, 1831

Some scholars claim that collective security always fails. This article analyses a case where it succeeded. When Belgians rebelled against Dutch rule in the early 1830s, all five great powers agreed no fewer than four times to threaten or to use force against one or both sides. Why? Drawing extensively on diplomatic correspondence from Austrian, German and Russian archives, I show that the Concert of Europe functioned as a security regime, helping the powers to agree. Great power consensus broke down when Britain and France imposed a peace settlement on the Dutch in 1832. Yet the Belgian case—like Iraq's 1991 expulsion from Kuwait—shows that collective security can sometimes succeed against cross-border aggression.     

A Counterterrorism Strategy for the Obama Administration

This article assesses the scope and nature of the current terrorist threat to the United States and suggests a strategy to counter it. Al-Qaeda continues to pose the most serious terrorist threat to the U.S. today. If the September 11, 2001 attacks have taught us anything, it is that al-Qaeda is most dangerous when it has a sanctuary or safe haven from which to plan and plot attacks. Al-Qaeda has acquired such a sanctuary in Pakistan's Federal Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and its North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) and surrounding environs. Accordingly, the highest priority for the new American presidential administration must be to refocus our—and our allies'—attention on Afghanistan and Pakistan, where al-Qaeda began to collapse after 2001, but has now re-grouped. This will entail understanding that al-Qaeda and its local militant jihadi allies cannot be defeated by military means alone. Success will require a dual strategy of systematically destroying and weakening enemy capabilities—that is, continuing to kill and capture al-Qaeda commanders and operatives—along with breaking the cycle of terrorist recruitment among radicalized “bunches of guys” as well as more effectively countering al-Qaeda's effective information operations. The U.S. thus requires a strategy that harnesses the overwhelming kinetic force of the American military as part of a comprehensive vision to transform other, non-kinetic instruments of national power in order to deal more effectively with irregular and unconventional threats. This article first discusses the scope and details of the terrorist threat today and then proposes a counterterrorism strategy for the new presidential administration. It focuses first on creating a micro approach to address the deteriorating situation in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. It then considers the requirements of a broader macro strategy to counter terrorism and insurgency.