Energy Security and Germany's Response to Russian Revisionism: The Dangers of Civilian Power

This article examines the impact of German dependence on Russian gas supplies for Europe's ability to apply effective sanctions against Russia. It demonstrates that by focusing on the environmental dimensions of energy policy and a policy of rapprochement with Russia, Germany has neglected the security of supply implications of its dependence on Russian gas. The article argues that Germany's excessive energy dependence on Russia has limited the ability of the EU to challenge Russian revisionism by targeting its energy sector through sanctions. The article makes a number of energy policy recommendations which will be essential for Germany to avoid undue Russian influence on its foreign and security policies. The article concludes by exploring the utility of Neoclassical Realism in understanding Germany's approach to energy security. In doing so it highlights the dangers of allowing ideology to cloud a sober assessment of the imperatives of the balance of theat.     

Τhe energy parameters of the Russian–Ukrainian–EU impasse: dependencies,sanctions and the rise of ‘Turkish Stream’

The overwhelming dependency of Ukraine on Russian energy and the lack of any short-to-medium term diversification of European Union (EU) oil and gas supplies away from Moscow dictate a cooperative approach vis-à-vis Russia in dealing with the Ukrainian crisis. The EU is unable to impose any more severe sanctions on Russia’s energy industry without provoking a major negative impact on its own troubled economy. The continuation of the current confrontational friction in EU–Russian energy relations will most likely consolidate Russia’s decision to seek the elimination of its gas transit dependence on Ukraine after 2020. Such a target will be very difficult to attain by the end of this decade, even if Russia will be able to partly replace the now abandoned South Stream project with Turkish Stream.     

从“北溪-2”项目看德俄关系及俄美欧三方博弈

作为两个重要的地区大国,德国与俄罗斯的关系对彼此和欧洲都有着重要影响。在双边关系中,能源因素因其对国民经济生产的决定性意义长期发挥着“稳定器”的作用。2018年9月,由德俄牵头,法国、奥地利与荷兰合资建造的“北溪-2”天然气管道项目正式动工铺设。该项目将使输往欧洲的俄罗斯天然气绕开乌克兰,经过波罗的海海底直接连通德俄两国,德国由此成为俄罗斯天然气最重要的转运国。此举虽然在双边层面上保证了德俄的能源经济安全,但在多边层面却招致欧盟、美国等多方反对。因担心会进一步加深对俄罗斯能源的依赖,欧盟委员会及中东欧国家欲诉诸法律对该项目施以约束;美国在制裁项目企业的同时转而向波兰、乌克兰等国出口液化天然气,在利用政治机遇抢占欧洲市场的同时试图制衡俄罗斯的影响力。在多方力量博弈中,德国需要在平衡俄美欧关系中付出更多努力。     

商业理念还是地缘政治?——欧美在欧洲对俄天然气进口依赖上的分歧根源及其影响

俄欧天然气关系是跨大西洋伙伴关系中极具争议的议题。欧洲对俄天然气的商业理念之核心,是通过制度设计约束俄罗斯行为的不确定性,同时通过器物层面的天然气基础设施建设和进口多元化,降低俄罗斯中断天然气供给的潜在威胁,最终使俄罗斯成为安全可靠的天然气供给来源。在有关俄欧天然气关系的地缘政治思维上,美国已不仅仅着眼于俄天然气是否会对欧洲能源安全构成威胁,而是更多地将俄天然气视为助长其对外行为能力的重要工具加以限制。随着欧洲对俄天然气进口依赖增强与美国经济制裁力度加大,美欧俄面临经济制裁与国家治理的困境。这一困境可能导致跨大西洋伙伴关系的裂痕加深。欧盟能否通过地缘政治转向应对不断加剧的天然气地缘竞争,取决于其将经济力量变为政治意图的现实可能与效果。     

How Can Foreign Companies Influence Russia's Economic Course? The Cases of Finnish Firms Fortum and Neste

A geographer specializing in the Russian economy looks at the experience of two large Finnish energy companies, Fortum and Neste, in Russia during the 1990s and 2000s, to reassess the relationship between Russia and foreign investors. The article asks if foreign companies can influence the course of economic transformation in Russia, thus creating favorable investment conditions. From a source base that includes company publications, news sources, and the scholarly literature, Fortum and Neste's strategies for multidimensional geoeconomic engagement of Russia, their participation in pro-development coalitions of influential actors, and cultivation of long-lasting interactions with top Russian decision-makers are detailed and analyzed.     

The current EU/US–Russia conflict over Ukraine and the WTO: a preliminary note on (trade) restrictive measures

In 2012, the Russian Federation (RF) joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) as its 156th member. Two years later, an international conflict over the developments in Ukraine in general and the changing status of Crimea erupted, which henceforth saw the RF, the United States (US), and the European Union (EU) drawn into a circle of the unilateral imposition of trade and other restrictive measures. This article looks at the trade aspects of the ensuing conflict and provides a detailed survey of the restrictive measures imposed by the EU, the US, and the RF from the perspective of the national legal orders of the jurisdictions concerned, as well as from the international perspective of the applicable WTO trade rules. It includes a critical assessment of the compatibility of economic sanctions with the parties' WTO commitments, as well as the possibility of addressing the current divergences under the WTO dispute settlement mechanism.     

大国博弈、双层均势的亚洲时刻--俄罗斯智库对中美经贸摩擦的认知与政策立场

俄罗斯智库对中美经贸摩擦有着独特的认知和期待,并与克里姆林宫的官方立场互为表里。总体上,俄方智库的观点是,在经贸摩擦的背后,是中美两国对军事、政治、科技、地区和全球领导权的竞争;两国的国内议程和对外政策,将因此受到深远影响并产生溢出效应--在亚洲区域内形成两极结构。即使两国会因国内和国际政治因素,在经贸问题上达成妥协,但中方不会放弃获得世界科技领导者的雄心,美方也不会打消遏制中国发展动能的战略意图。俄罗斯应与中国继续保持经济与军事合作,避免与美国和西方关系的继续恶化,并在亚太地区推动"大欧亚伙伴关系"倡议。俄罗斯政策分析界基于自身利益的演绎,将中美经贸摩擦定性为大国博弈,相应的政策建议反映出俄罗斯以在全球和亚洲分别制衡美中为目标的双层均势策略。俄罗斯将在有亚洲其他国家参与的情景下扮演战略平衡手角色,借中美全面对抗之势,在中美俄三边关系之外扭转不利的外部发展环境。俄罗斯对亚太国际局势的盘活作用,将催生双边和三边竞合新模式的建立。     

Understanding Russia’s energy turn to China: domestic narratives and national identity priorities

This study investigates whether, as part of a broader “Asian Energy Pivot,” Russia’s energy giant Gazprom refashioned its export strategy away from Europe, and what impact such a reorientation might have on the EU–Russia gas relationship. It uses four empirical cases to emphasize the domestic movers underlying Russia’s eastward shift in energy trade, developing a constructivist theory rooted in the dynamics of Russia’s dominant public narrative and the contours of domestic politics. It argues that Russia’s national interests changed as a result of how Russian policy-makers interpreted and reacted to the stand-off with Europe, in response to what they perceived as Europe’s attempt to isolate it economically and geopolitically. Russia’s Eurasianists, who had advocated the notion of a necessary turn to the East for a long time, positioned themselves as norm entrepreneurs and their new interpretation of the preexisting material incentives shaped the future course of action.     

俄罗斯与美欧关系变化及对中国的影响

2014年初乌克兰危机爆发后,俄罗斯与美欧关系降到冷战结束后的最低点。但是,具有战略忍耐力的俄罗斯调整对外政策,先是在叙利亚战场打开局面,接着在2019年与美欧的关系也出现缓和。俄美领导人举行会晤,两国外长互访,两国开始就是否延长《新削减战略武器条约》进行谈判。同时,俄美在军备竞赛、地区冲突、人文限制等领域的争斗依旧激烈。随着2020年美国总统大选临近,"通俄门"阴影是否可能再度影响俄美关系,存在较大的不确定性。俄与欧盟关系相对来说比较稳定,双方都有改善关系、加强合作的愿望。乌克兰问题是影响俄欧关系的重要因素之一,2019年乌克兰总统选举后乌俄关系出现某些松动与对话端倪,这将使俄欧关系在2020年继续朝着缓和与合作的方向发展。美国对俄政策调整对俄中关系也许会产生某种影响,但是对整个俄中关系不会发生大的作用。俄乌关系打破僵局、俄欧加强合作则符合中国的立场和利益,中国乐观其成。     

Internet control through ownership: the case of Russia

The Russian Internet remained relatively unregulated compared to the media sector as a whole until about 2012. One of the levers for increased control over the Internet was ownership, direct or indirect, of the most important infrastructure and websites. Control through ownership over the Russian Internet companies has increased, but in a finely calibrated fashion in order not to spark discontent and risk the formation of a social movement. The Internet’s global nature, however, has made it impossible to use the same methods against international companies. The Russian government has had to exert other forms of pressure, change legislation, or block entire social networks. Furthermore, increasing and more systematic control through ownership carries with it considerable long-term consequences and costs, both when it comes to the modernization of Russia and in terms of possible rising discontent if Internet users no longer accept that the repressive measures taken are in their interest.     

The Russian Dimension of Baltic Maritime Governance

This paper seeks to reconstruct the development of Baltic maritime governance by filling in the gap in the systematic study of Russian maritime policy. In a review of historical, administrative, economic, and political facets of Russian maritime policy, the paper identifies the logic of “greatpowerness” underpinned by the category of “national interest” as its main driver. In this overall logic, cooperation with the EU in maritime affairs is a part of larger Russia’s EU politics. Thus, Baltic maritime governance depends on the ability of the EU and Russia to maintain constructive relations beyond the scope of the maritime domain.     

Russia’s energy relations in Southeastern Europe: an analysis of motives in Bulgaria and Greece

Although officially Russian state-owned energy companies operate as independent entities, their actions often lead to suspicion that they are acting as a tool of Russian state foreign policy. Countries on the southeastern borders of Europe – Bulgaria and Greece – are prime examples of where this might be the case, since they not only have a central position in Russia’s plans to penetrate European markets through new transport infrastructure but are also part of competing plans for routing non-Russian gas to Western markets. The main focus of the present research is on the natural gas and oil sectors, as these are the traditional foundation of Russian energy exports to Europe. The aim of this paper is thus to provide an objective, evidence-based analysis of Russian activities in the natural gas and oil sectors of Greece and Bulgaria in order to establish whether its actions have been implicitly or explicitly politicized and have served to strengthen Russian influence in the region.     

Bargain and Barter: China's Oil Trade with Iran

The US withdrawal from the nuclear deal and its ratcheting up of sanctions aimed to cut Iran's oil revenues virtually to zero by reducing trade between Tehran and its top foreign customers, especially China. This article examines the dynamics of the Sino-Iranian oil business and finds that the Chinese have never terminated their imports; instead, when Beijing cannot deal with Tehran directly, it continues the flow through subterranean methods. This practice holds some benefits for both sides, but the Iranian economy has become highly dependent on bartering with the East Asian power: exporting crude and receiving part of the revenues in Chinese goods and services. The two countries have vowed to keep up the oil trade, as sanctions have led Iran toward a growing economic and technological orientation toward the East.     

俄罗斯经济的转折点与“俄罗斯病”

俄罗斯经济一度在油价的暴涨中实现了高增长,但在2008年油价暴跌之后,俄面临着经济增长的转折点。虽说俄罗斯的经济转型伴随着一系列的市场经济结构改革,但还是对于油价变动反应过度。俄受油价变动摆布的资源依赖型经济可统称为"俄罗斯病"。这其实是一种"石油诅咒"综合症,但它不同于"荷兰病"。虽然俄罗斯历经石油价格高涨→实际汇率升值→进口扩大的发展路径,却没有出现GDP增长递减和制造业增长低迷的现象。因为俄国内市场大于荷兰,而且制造业发展缓慢。我们不能期待出现治愈"俄罗斯病"的特效药和特需,而有效利用资源利益来推动其经济发展是俄罗斯的现实选择。俄罗斯以"推翻世界史"的速度实现了开放的市场经济,但是,在重构文化背景和制造业基础之后再来发展经济恐怕还需时日。     

Towards conflict or cooperation? The Ukraine crisis and EU-Russia relations

The Ukraine crisis and Russia’s contribution to it have raised numerous concerns regarding the possible emergence of a new ‘Cold War’ in Europe. At the same time, Ukraine’s popular choice and enthusiasm for European integration expressed clearly on the streets of Kyiv seem to have caused Russia to adopt a (neo)revisionist attitude. In this context, relations between Russia and the EU (and the West for that matter) have been limited, frozen and directed on path towards conflict. This article analyses how the traditional dichotomy between conflict and cooperation in EU–Russia relations was replaced by conflict in the context of the Ukraine crisis. The article contends that the breakdown of the symbolic and peaceful cohabitation between the EU and Russia has been influenced by the fact that both actors have chosen to ignore key tensions that characterized their post-Cold War interactions. The article identifies three such tensions: the first emphasizes divisions between EU member states and their impact on coagulating a common EU approach towards Russia; the second (geopolitical) tension highlights the almost mutually exclusive way in which the EU and Russia’s security interests have developed in the post-Soviet space; finally, the third contends that a clash of values and worldviews between the EU and Russia makes conflict virtually unavoidable.     

Taking the “Poison Pill”: A Commentary on a Case Study

A prominent American specialist on legal affairs in the former Soviet Union and Russia comments upon a case study focused on managerial strategies to privatize a large industrial conglomerate. Efforts to prevent outsiders from buying the enterprise are likened to “poison pills” used in the United States to thwart hostile corporate takeovers. The commentary includes references to the tradition of corruption in Russian bureaucracy before and after the October Revolution and notes the difficulties encountered by Western lawyers advising foreign investors in recent years. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: K22, P13, P31.     

Public interest politics,corporate governance and company regulation in Germany and Britain

This article introduces a systematic framework for evaluating the impact of public interest issues on companies through regulation and mandatory corporate governance requirements that change the nature of the firm. It finds that public interest issues that apply to the firm are becoming more important in both Britain and Germany, despite their disparate historical patterns of dealing with the company. European integration and national politics are both expanding the range of issues companies must deal with, even under the competitive pressures of globalisation, while national institutions and politics continue to dominate the manner in which most firms confront public interest issues.     

The EU and the Syrian Crisis: The Use of Sanctions and the Regime's Strategy for Survival

The Syrian crisis has from May 2011 and onwards been met by the EU with rounds of tightening sanctions attempting to put pressure on the Syrian regime and the elites surrounding it. Based on a typology for the sanctions and a periodization showing how the measures have proceeded, the article discusses the EU sanctions and to what degree they have influenced the situation in Syria. Furthermore, the article sheds light on regional and international dimensions of EU policies towards Syria and demonstrates how the policies are met with the Syrian regime's ability to adapt to conditions related to changing internal and external challenges. The article concludes that what in the first phases of the EU sanctions against Syria represented a deviation from the traditional pragmatic EU policies vis-à-vis the Middle East, seems during the latest phase to be followed by a more cautious approach, which also takes security concerns into consideration.     

The logic of competitive influence-seeking: Russia,Ukraine, and the conflict in Donbas

The crisis in Ukraine since late 2013 has seen four successive internationally mediated agreements that have been at best partially implemented. Drawing on extensive fieldwork and 42 key informant interviews sides, we explain this outcome with reference to the logic of competitive influence-seeking: Russia is currently unable to achieve a friendly and stable regime in Kyiv and thus hedges against the consolidation of an unfriendly pro-Western and stable regime by maintaining its control over parts of eastern Ukraine and solidifying the dependence of local regimes there on Russian support. This gives Russia the opportunity to maintain the current status quo or settle for re-integration terms through which Russia can sustain long-term influence over Ukraine’s domestic and foreign policy. We conclude by reflecting on the consequences of competitive influence-seeking in the post-Soviet space: the likely persistence of low-intensity conflict in Ukraine; the further consolidation of territorial divisions in other post-Soviet conflicts; and the need for policy-makers in Russia and the West to prioritize the management of the consequent instability.     

俄罗斯油气资源依附型经济论析

尽管1999年后俄罗斯的经济增长是内需而非投资主导的,但俄仍然是出口矿产资源、进口机器等工业制成品和食品的单一经济模式的发展中国家,其经济增长受出口大宗商品的国际市场价格和汇率变化的影响较大。无论从名义GDP还是从实际GDP来看,油气产业对俄罗斯经济增长的贡献率都很大。俄罗斯制造业的竞争力依然很低。因此,俄罗斯经济是一种油气资源依附型经济。俄罗斯政府对国内市场的天然气价格实施管制,在一定程度上减轻了"荷兰病"的进一步发展。来自油气产业的税收大幅增加使俄财政收入由赤字转为盈余。俄政府为此设立了稳定基金,在抑制通货膨胀的同时偿还了外债。从2008年起,俄在引入油气收支或油气外收支等概念基础上开始实施新的预算编制和执行制度。稳定基金因此转化为储备基金和下一代基金。俄经济的长远发展取决于如何减轻"荷兰病"的影响以及通货膨胀的压力。