Is It Putin or Is It Oil? Explaining Russia's Fiscal Recovery

What accounts for the sea change in Russia's fiscal health? This article evaluates several contributing factors: high world energy prices, economic recovery, new tax policies, and the consolidation of state power. By examining the fiscal politics under the Yel'tsin and Putin governments, this article seeks to uncover the relative importance of political and economic causes for the recovery of the tax state in the 2000s. While increased energy production and high world prices augmented the Russian tax base tremendously, the consolidation of power under Vladimir Putin heightened the Russian state's extractive capacity and has enabled Russia's fiscal recovery.     

Broadcasting agitainment: a new media strategy of Putin’s third presidency

This article argues that accounts of the Russian media system that tend to view the time from Vladimir Putin’s rise to power in 2000 as a single homogenous period do not capture major qualitative shifts in state-controlled media coverage. By analyzing the output of Russia’s two main television channels during Putin’s third presidential term, we identify a range of distinctly new features that amount to a new media strategy. This involves a significant increase in the coverage of political issues through the replacement of infotainment with what we term agitainment—an ideologically inflected content that, through adapting global media formats to local needs, attempts to appeal to less engaged and even sceptical viewers. Despite the tightening of political control over the media following the annexation of Crimea, the new strategy paradoxically has strengthened the constitutive role played by the state-controlled broadcasters in the articulation of official discourse.     

The More Assertive and Pragmatic New Energy Policy in Putin’s Russia: Security Implications for Northeast Asia

The article examines Russia’s New Energy Policy (NEP) and its impact on Northeast Asian security and the development of the Russian Far East. In contrast to analyses highlighting competition between China and Japan for Russian resources, to the contrary it is argued here that greater cooperation among consumer states in Northeast Asia would be beneficial for Russia. Although the NEP has resulted in changes in the composition of foreign investors in Russian energy projects, the author suggests that Moscow is interested in multinational cooperation in the energy sector because it would help diversify the regional energy market and contribute to the development of the Russian Far East and eastern Siberia.

The politics of federal transfers in Putin’s Russia: regional competition,lobbying, and federal priorities

Most studies of intergovernmental financial flows in the Russian Federation focus on the federal center’s decision-making in determining the direction of these flows. Anecdotal evidence, however, suggests that regional governments employ a variety of tools and strategies to compete over federal transfers. This study uses data on federal transfers during 2002–2012 to examine the factors associated with the politically sensitive share of such transfers occurring in this period. The key findings highlight the importance of administrative capacity and the value of attracting attention from, as well as cultivating relations with, federal officials for shaping decision-making on the distribution of federal transfers. We discuss some specific strategies used by more successful regional governments in attracting additional federal funds.     

East Asia: Chile’s Missed Opportunity?

East Asia is regarded in Chile as an opportunity to achieve economic development, because economic integration would place it in East Asia’s value chains. This article suggests that the results of Chile’s economic strategy toward East Asia, based on trade agreements, have had a predominantly quantitative success. The value of exports toward East Asia has indeed increased impressively. However, the qualitative results are less impressive. These agreements are not adequate to achieve structural change, which would enable the Chilean economy to move along East Asia’s value chains. Statistical evidence confirms that Chile is still reduced to a commodity supplier and at the periphery of the chain. To change this situation, Chile has to design first a strategy of how to offer East Asia goods and services beyond commodities. This means looking beyond trade agreements.     

‘Very Brave or Very Foolish’? ‘Gallant Little’ Botswana’s Defiance of ‘Apartheid’s Golden Age’, 1966–1980

The period from 1966 to 1979 is claimed to have been ‘apartheid’s golden age’ when the anti-apartheid forces were alleged to have largely acquiesced in the well-resourced South African government. However, this paper observes that Botswana, a country of about one million people and almost entirely surrounded by extremely hostile white minority regimes, demonstrated a spirit of defiance to apartheid’s golden age. Botswana defied military intimidation and reprisals from South Africa (an African giant) and its ally Rhodesia by continuing to host large numbers of refugees despite Botswana’s severe budgetary constraints. Botswana did this even though it was landlocked and overwhelmingly dependent on South Africa for economic survival. Botswana felt that it was a moral obligation to make sacrifices for the benefit of the oppressed black people of South Africa. This article attempts to demonstrate that despite being defenceless and dependent on South Africa for economic survival, Botswana did not yield in its principled stand against apartheid, a stand which won international acclaim during the period from 1966 to 1980 – apartheid’s golden age. It concludes that in its own small way Botswana demonstrated that apartheid was not entirely invincible.     

De-Europeanisation or Counter-Conduct? Turkey’s Democratisation and the EU

Abstract

Many Turkish and European scholars have been (re)producing texts that praise the normative impact of the European Union (EU) which has helped the political transformation of Turkey. Nevertheless, the recent deterioration of democracy in the country indicates that the EU has been losing its transformative influence on Turkey. This might be regarded as de-Europeanisation. However, this article argues that the conceptual framework of de-Europeanisation can only partially explain the current situation in Turkey and the EU’s impact, and that an analysis based on counter-conduct, as produced by EU governmentality, may provide insight into a subtler dynamic at work in the country.     

Between anti-Westernization and Islamism: Turkey’s ‘Islamic’ vision in Cyprus?

This paper seeks to analyse the position of Cyprus within the geopolitical vision and broader worldview of the National Outlook Movement (Milli Görü? Hareketi) and especially of the National Salvation Party (MSP). The importance of this particular Party lies on the fact that it participated in the coalition government that made the decision to militarily intervene in the island in 1974. The paper’s principal focus is on the Islamic criticism of Turkey’s Westernization and the development of a comprehensive programme of Islamic transformation. Drawing from the above-mentioned axes, and from the context of the MSP’s geopolitical vision, Cyprus and the Cyprus problem, as well as their impact on the political stance of the MSP, are analysed.     

Japan’s Shifting Military Priorities: Counterbalancing China’s Rise

This article analyzes the most recent phase of Japan’s security policy reform, focusing on its shifting priorities towards the Japan Self-Defense Forces and the Japan–US alliance since mid-2010. From a realist perspective, it argues that these shifting military priorities first and foremost represent a traditional counterbalancing response to China’s rise. Conforming to the logic inherent in balance of threat theory, it moreover argues that this balancing behavior is explained by a confluence of two primary factors, namely Japanese perceptions of aggressive Chinese behavior in the maritime domain and concerns relating to the changing distribution of capabilities in China’s favor.     

Singapore’s 2015 General Election: Explaining PAP’s Resounding Win

Abstract

While Singapore’s 15th general election came about as expected, the ensuing results did not. In view of the opposition’s performance in the 2011 general election and the general sense that the ruling party had done well despite its performance being anything but sterling, the results were somewhat shocking. Even the leaders of the ruling party were caught by surprise at the party’s ability to garner 70% of the valid votes, 10% more than in the previous election. While many factors played a role, it was the opposition parties that lost the election rather than the ruling party that won it. Most of the opposition parties were rejected by the voters on grounds of not being worthy of support. The leading opposition party, the Workers’ Party, also suffered as many voters feared that it might perform too well to the detriment of the ruling party. In the end, the 2015 general elections strengthened the one-party-dominant state in Singapore and the quest for greater political representation was placed on the back burner.     

Singapore’s Phantom Workers

In 2009, the Singapore state prosecuted a string of businesses for listing fictitious local workers on their books in order to stretch their foreign worker entitlement. These “phantom” worker scams, prevalent since the 1980s, appear out of place in Singapore – a country with a strong international reputation for its government’s efficiency and strict legal enforcement. This paper examines the state’s prosecutions of the phantom worker scams in the context of the exceptional economic and political stresses in 2009, when Singapore was most severely affected by the global economic crisis, in order to address the employment regime in Singapore. It argues that the belated efforts to tackle the phantom worker scams reflected the pro-business state’s reluctance to tackle illegalities crucial to facilitating employers’ otherwise unlawful access to wealth and resources in Singapore.