Turkish Popular Presidential Elections: Deepening Legitimacy Issues and Looming Regime Change

This paper examines the politics of presidential elections in Turkey with particular reference to the 10 August 2014 presidential elections. It starts by scrutinising the change in the presidential election system from parliamentary to direct popular vote. It then probes the implementation of the new election rules, candidate selection, and the conduct of the campaign, followed by analysis of the election results and their influence on the Turkish record of democratisation. The paper concludes that the move to a partisan president elected by popular vote entails democratic dangers if the new incumbent does not abide by his or her constitutional role and attempts to intervene in government policy.     

Back to a Predominant Party System: The November 2015 Snap Election in Turkey

Abstract

Turkey’s snap parliamentary election in November 2015 took place in an environment of growing political violence and terrorism resulting from the renewal of the Kurdish conflict in the southeast and two major suicide bombings carried out by Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Presenting the coalition arithmetic, the article first examines the failure to form a government after the previous election five months earlier. It then examines the campaign for the November election, including party strategies, key issues and the role of the media, before analysing the results and the election winners and losers. In restoring a parliamentary majority for the Adalet ve Kalk?nma Partisi (Justice and Development Party – AKP) that has governed Turkey continuously for the past 13 years, the November election marked the basic continuity of Turkey’s predominant party system.     

A Small Yes for Presidentialism: The Turkish Constitutional Referendum of April 2017

Following four elections in three years, on 16 April 2017 Turkish voters once again went to the polls - this time under the emergency law established after the failed coup attempt of July 2016 - to vote on constitutional amendments aimed at replacing the existing parliamentary system with an executive presidency. This article reviews the content of the proposed constitutional amendments, analyses the campaign including the strategies employed by the main political actors in the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ camps and the resource advantages enjoyed by the ruling party, assesses the electoral performance of both sides through a summary of results from provincial areas and geographical regions, and considers how Turkish politics are likely to take shape under the new system.     

Political Consequences of Welfare Regimes: Social Assistance and Support for Presidentialism in Turkey

ABSTRACT

Tackling redistributive expansion in developing countries, this paper explores broader political consequences of social assistance programmes. Drawing from the Turkish case, where social welfare expanded since the 2000s, it examines attitudes of social assistance beneficiaries towards transition to presidentialism, which was approved in a referendum in 2017, and took effect in 2018. Using the results of an original survey, it indicates that social assistance benefits played a significant role in increasing support for presidentialism, by garnering votes from opposition voters, especially those with high-risk perceptions, in return for benefits. Given the character of Turkish presidentialism, devoid of vital checks and balances, the findings reveal that incumbents can mobilise support by using redistributive instruments in the context of democratic backsliding.     

Understanding Turkish secularism in the 21th century: a contextual roadmap

ABSTRACT

This paper asserts that Turkish secularism and Islamism represent two faces of one coin – contemporary Turkish politics – when one considers their goals and strategies. The two ideological movements have shaped one another and each now seeks to impose itself as superior. This article unpacks these differences and similarities in the following steps: (a) it defines the socio-historic modes of Turkish secularism and (b) examines its social and political origins; (c) it then explores Islam’s return to the public domain as an oppositional Turkish identity; (d) and thereafter considers the diverse understandings of secularism resulting from neoliberal policies that relaxed state control over Islam, which then prompted socially-acceptable reinterpretations of Islam; and finally (e) describes how the AKP’s has re-imagined secularism while (mis)using Islam as a political instrument. The comparison highlights such commonalties as a collectivist character, a desire for state control as a vehicle to realize an ideology, intolerance of diversity and criminalization of other perspectives, and the differentiation of religion as morality in the private sphere versus its cultural role in the public sphere. It concludes that, under the AKP government, Islam is used as a tool to consolidate the power of Erdo?an’s kleptocratic regime.     

Emergence of a Dominant Party System After Multipartyism: Theoretical Implications from the Case of the AKP in Turkey

This study aims to provide insights into how and why a dominant party system emerges after an era of multipartyism. Conceptualising the emergence phase of a dominant party system within the framework of Sartori's ‘predominant party system’, it elaborates the causal weight of different theories within the Turkish context through a comparative-historical analysis. Comparing the case of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) with the Justice Party (AP), it argues that perceptions of an incumbent's good economic performance and lack of centrifugal intra-party conflicts are two crucial factors that lead to the emergence of a dominant party system after multipartyism. Restrictive electoral rules and existing social cleavages, however, create a favourable setting for this outcome.     

Islam and economics in the political sphere: a critical evaluation of the AKP era in Turkey

ABSTRACT

Since Weber’s articulate conceptualisation of the nexus between religion and economics, these phenomena have been examined through various academic viewpoints. While some take religion as a determining factor of economic performance, others argue that it is the economy that influences religiosity. This paper focuses on the manifestation of religion and economics in the political sphere regarding the case of Turkey’s Justice and Development Party (AKP). After discussing the literature on the relations between religion and economics, it scrutinises the AKP period, considering three specific pillars: (a) the early years of the AKP in which Western economic policies were implemented as a continuation of the Kemal Dervi? period; (b) between 2008 and 2015, when the idea ‘we can do as well’ maintained the centre stage; and (c) 2015 and onwards, when the Islamist influence on economic policy became highly apparent, particularly regarding interest rates. This study argues that the AKP changed politically in terms of Islamic influence upon the economic sphere, however this remains at the discursive level for the time being.     

Erdoğan’s presidential regime and strategic legalism: Turkish democracy in the twilight zone

ABSTRACT

President Erdo?an and the AKP government initiated a comprehensive restoration process immediately after the failed coup in mid-July 2016. In fact, the country has been experiencing a very comprehensive and violent regime transformation since this time. I assert that recent political developments paved the way for institutionalization of a ‘plebiscitary presidential regime’ that depends on a particular combination of supreme power of the leader, an extremely weak parliament, and elections of a plebiscitary character. In this context, the paper aims to shed light on the role of the new strategic legalism which allows rule of law to be replaced by a rule by law approach, the executive prerogative principle to be dominant, and the law to be used for demobilization, all playing a highly critical role in the suppression of democratic opposition.     

Believing in Conspiracy Theories: Evidence from an Exploratory Analysis of Italian Survey Data

Beliefs in conspiracy theories have attracted significant international media attention in recent years. This phenomenon has been studied in the US but while anecdotal evidence suggests it is also widespread among the Italian public, little evidence has been collected to assess it empirically. Using data from a 2016 survey, this pioneering study of the Italian case investigates the extent of diffusion of conspiracy theories among Italians and tests several hypotheses concerning individual determinants. The paper finds that conspiracism is indeed widely diffused in Italy. It is negatively associated with education and positively with religiosity, while no correlation is found with political trust. Beliefs in conspiracies are also related to rightwing orientation and support for the populist Five Star Movement.     

Islamisation of Turkey under the AKP Rule: Empowering Family,Faith and Charity

Referring to the linkages between neoliberal social policies and religious forms of governmentality, this article analyses the Islamisation of Turkey under the rule of the AKP (Justice and Development Party) since 2002. It discusses the strategies, discourses, and policies deployed by the AKP to take control of the state, with a particular focus on the changing environment of social policies. The focus is on the growing importance of the family, faith-based voluntary organisations, charities, education, and Islam for AKP rule. It concludes with brief reference to the #Occupygezi movement, which was partly a response to the Islamisation pursued by the AKP government.     

Local Elections and the Turkish Voter: Looking for the Determinants of Party Choice

On 30 March 2014 Turkish voters elected their local (city) councillors. Their party preferences seem to indicate considerable correspondence with the national vote choices. So, do voters' choices in local elections differ from voters' party preferences at the national legislative elections? Based on previous research findings on Turkish voting behaviour, a list of hypotheses was compiled and tested, using binary logistic regression analyses and survey data collected immediately prior to the 2009 and 2014 local elections. The main findings are that the party lists are supported at the ballot boxes on the basis of the voters' party identification, ideological positions, and economic (dis)satisfaction, whether in national or local elections.     

An alternative reading of religion and authoritarianism: the new logic between religion and state in the AKP’s New Turkey

ABSTRACT

Since roughly 2011, the Turkish state and the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) have been going through a process of mutual transformation. Some of the historical apprehensions, biases and frustrations exhibited by Turkey as a middle power have been absorbed by the relatively reformist AKP. Conversely, the AKP and its undisputed leader Erdo?an have seen their socio-political fears, power based conflicts and ethno-religious desires become dominant in all areas, including religion. As a consequence of this bilateral transformation, Turkey has become both an inclusionary and a hegemonic-authoritarian state, and at the same time a weak one. Within this new identity and structure of the state, Sunni Islam has become one of the regime’s key focal points, with a new logic. This article seeks to explain the transformation of the relations between the AKP’s Turkish state, religion and religious groups, by scrutinising Karrie Koesel’s logic of state-religion interaction in authoritarian regimes.     

Potholes,pensions, and public opinion: the politics of blame in Putin's power vertical

What are the risks and rewards of power centralization in competitive authoritarian regimes, and who in the regime bears those risks and enjoys the rewards? The elimination of gubernatorial elections in Russia in late 2004 provides a unique opportunity to study public reaction to policies that replaced democratically elected regional leaders with Kremlin appointees, thereby further concentrating power in the hands of the central state while simultaneously reducing the level of democratic accountability in Russian politics. Using a 2007 survey of 1500 Russians, it is possible to observe how key measures of public opinion and regime support were influenced by the elimination of gubernatorial elections. Because the timeline of gubernatorial appointments was determined exogenously based on the expiration of elected incumbent governors' terms, by 2007 some regions had governors who still held electoral mandates, while others had Kremlin appointees with no electoral mandate. This quasi experiment allows us to draw surprising conclusions about whom Russians blame – and do not blame – when power becomes increasingly centralized in the hands of the president.     

Comparing public attitudes on EU membership in candidate countries: the cases of Croatia,Macedonia and Turkey from 2004 to 2011

Past enlargements of the European Union (EU) have demonstrated that public attitudes on European integration can influence the course of accession processes. Beyond the literature on public EU support in member states and former candidates, the dynamics that shape public attitudes on EU membership within recent candidate countries have not been systematically examined. Analysing nine Eurobarometer (EB) surveys from 2004 to 2011, we argue that evaluations of EU membership in Croatia, Macedonia and Turkey are shaped by utilitarian considerations, belief in various political institutions as well as the fear of losing national identity. The economic crisis of 2008 has changed public opinion towards EU membership in all three countries, but Turkey appears to have been affected the most compared to Croatia and Macedonia.     

The intersectionality of gender,sexuality, and religion: novelties and continuities in Turkey during the AKP era

ABSTRACT

This article argues that in the AKP era, gender and sexuality play a central role in reshaping the secular-religious divide to instil ‘yeni milli’ (new national) – or as AKP members call it, ‘yerli ve milli’ (homegrown and national)- values. Adopting a feminist and reflexive approach, this article seeks to demonstrate that Erdo?an and the AKP have used gender and sexuality-related issue areas not as diversions to highjack the public agenda, as it is often assumed, but as a medium to regulate the neoliberal redistribution of conservative values. After a brief presentation of the historical background of the gendered evolution of the secular-religious divide in Turkish politics, this article focuses on the following three particular cases: the policies and discourse on LGBTI rights; the link that was established between the reproductive rights of women and ethnic identity; and how the AKP created new types of ‘other men’ and ‘other women.’ The article also seeks to show that in each case the meanings attributed to the secular and the religious in the secular-religious divide have shifted accordingly and that shift was reflective of, and was used to instil the particular set of values supportive of particular political positions.     

Facebook: An Emerging Arena for Politics of Self-Determination in northern Cyprus?

ABSTRACT

The present article aims to expand scholarship on the political role of social media by focusing on the case of Facebook and the self-determination claims of Turkish Cypriots vis-à-vis Turkey. Drawing upon a virtual ethnography of relevant Facebook sites and groups, this article scrutinises whether social media offer an innovative public platform for the politics of self-determination or on-line claims are in reality formed and negotiated in the same manner as the offline ones. The article concludes that Turkish Cypriots’ Facebook activism may very well be for strengthening their community, shielding their distinct characteristics from mainland Turkey and raising their self-esteem, rather than indicating demands for complete autonomy in the traditional political sense of the word and/or statehood.     

Europeanisation and De-Europeanisation Dynamics in Turkey: The Case of Environmental Organisations

Abstract

While Europeanisation of civil society in Turkey has received considerable attention, there has been much less interest in how environmental organisations, as key civil society actors, have been affected by Europeanisation/de-Europeanisation dynamics. Interviews with civil society representatives and European Union (EU) and Turkish policy-makers indicate that the EU impact on environmental organisations has been ambivalent, and that Europeanisation dynamics are intertwined with the adverse consequences of these processes. While Turkey’s EU candidacy has empowered civil society through both EU-isation and Europeanisation, there has also been a remarkable rise of scepticism towards the EU’s civil society strategy and the EU has lost its attractiveness as a normative context in environmental debates.     

Public perception of energy security in Lithuania: between material interest and energy independence

The issue of the energy security in social sciences research area is mostly prevalent in political sciences. The sociological research of the issues of energy is rather scarce. The reasons of the lack of concern about sociology of energy security could be related to the specific geopolitical context of post-Soviet states. The energy policy of new democratic post-Soviet states are pressed to reconstruct the entire energy system of former Soviet Union. This is not only technological or political, but maybe, first of all, social issue directly related to the consumption of users of gas and electricity and their prices. The societies and different social groups become an important social actors in the stressful energy policy. There is a lack of attention not only to social determinants of perception of energy security but also a lack of deeper analysis of public opinion in Lithuania. This article aims to improve our understanding of the Lithuanian public perception of energy security. This article focuses on two aspects: (a) An analysis of public opinion on the most important aspects of energy security and the social factors influencing them. The hypothesis is that public perception of energy security is related to value orientations. (b) An analysis of how public opinion on energy policy executed by the government and confidence in the government are intertwined with the concept of energy security.     

Support for Democracy in Times of Crisis: Diffuse and Specific Regime Support in Portugal and Greece

In the context of a cross-national economic crisis, questions about democratic legitimacy are again topical. We explore the question of democratic legitimacy in Portugal and Greece by employing the conceptual differentiation between diffuse and specific regime support. Our findings indicate that while specific support has fallen in both countries, only Greece has experienced a precipitous fall in diffuse support, suggesting a link between regime performance and support for democracy. Individual-level analyses do not reveal any clear patterns concerning the impact of long-term societal factors or short-term economic considerations. Due to data quality limitations the paper has a predominately exploratory nature.     

Marching for Progress: Rituals of Citizenship, State and Belonging in a High Andes District

This article explores processes of citizenship and state formation in the Central Peruvian Andes in the wake of the armed conflict through the lens of a public ritual, the celebration of a district anniversary. The celebration is a reservoir of practices from past forms of state formation and may be read as a claim for recognition as full‐blown members of the nation‐state. While practices of citizenship as rights are emerging, the celebration is permeated by the association between citizenship and civilization, with discipline playing a major role as an instrument of modernisation and progress.