Turmoil in Egypt – 1968–2011: the status of the armed forces in citizen uprisings in Egypt

On 15 January 2011, there occurred an unprecedented event in the annals of Arab states: for the first time, the masses revolted and ousted a local ruler. The Tunisian masses took to the streets and stayed there until Zayn al-‘ābidīn bin ‘Alī stepped down, or, rather, fled the country. Ten days after Bin ‘Alī’s fall, the masses filled the thoroughfares of Egypt's major cities and demanded the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak, who had ruled Egypt for 30 years. On 12 February 2011, after 18 days of stormy protests, Vice President Omar Suleiman announced Mubarak's resignation and announced that Mubarak's powers had been transferred to him. This paper follows the Egyptian saga in the context of the new phenomenon taking place across the Arab world – citizen revolts. It does not address the protests by Islamic opposition groups, especially the Muslim Brotherhood; instead, it offers case studies in social, economic, and ideological (one might even say, secular) contexts, not religious ones. It surveys the recent epoch-making events in the Nile region and compares them with violent demonstrations and riots in its past. The paper's importance lies in its examination of the role of the armed forces in each case and primarily in its investigation of the assertion that the broad-based uprisings seem to have written finis to the military's pivotal role in Arab states.     

Challenges in conflict management in multi-ethnic states – the dissolution of Czechoslovakia and Serbia and Montenegro

This article examines the break-ups of post-communist Czechoslovakia and the Union of Serbia and Montenegro under consociationalism. According to Arend Lijphart, social divisions may be neutralized at the elite level with power-sharing mechanisms. Lijphart's theory has been abundantly criticized, particularly because, while its intention is to induce cooperation, consociationalism does not give leaders actual incentives to cooperate. Czechoslovakia and the Union qualified as consociations; however most favorable factors were absent. The states failed to overcome their divisions and broke apart. Both states were going through a democratization period, experienced differently in each republic. The article argues that the application of consociationalism at this time magnified the divisions. Stirring up the ethnic sensitivity of the population was the most reliable strategy for politicians to secure popular support. In this context, and with the EU enlargement prospect, the consociational structure, instead of bringing elites together, weakened the federal power and provided elites the opportunity to defend republican interests at the expense of the federations. Hence, while a consociation requires certain conditions and favorable factors, the context in which consociationalism is implemented, and particularly democratization periods, may have a decisive influence on the leaders’ ability to cooperate, on their decisions, and thereby on the state.     

Drivers and barriers of inter-municipal cooperation in health services – the Norwegian case

Inter-municipal cooperation in service delivery is widespread, as is the notion that this type of cooperation is primarily driven by economies of scale. However, the empirical results appear to be inconclusive, suggesting that additional explanatory factors are needed to explain why municipalities cooperate. This study aimed to identify the factors and conditions that influence the level of inter-municipal cooperation in health services by exploring a broad set of explanatory factors that go beyond simple economic concerns. In addition to confirming that a small population-size and fiscal stress constitute important drivers of inter-municipal cooperation, the results from this study also demonstrates the need to consider geographical location and heterogeneity relative to neighbouring municipalities as potential barriers to such cooperation.     

Welfare Dynamics in Pakistan and Ethiopia – Does the Estimation Method Matter?

Identifying household-level welfare dynamics and associated dynamic poverty trap thresholds can have important implications for the targeting of poverty reduction policies. The small existing empirical microeconomic literature has found evidence both for and against poverty traps. Using household panel data from rural Pakistan and Ethiopia, this article examines whether these different results are likely driven by differences in estimation methods or whether they reflect actual differences across settings. It applies the estimation methods from the existing literature to the same two datasets and also proposes a novel semiparametric panel data estimator that combines the advantages of the previous fully parametric and nonparametric approaches. The results suggest that absent any dynamic poverty trap thresholds the effect of using different estimation methods is secondary, having a small influence on the estimated long-term level of household well-being but not the identification of multiple dynamic welfare equilibria and associated dynamic poverty thresholds. Households in rural Pakistan and Ethiopia seem to be stuck in a static, structural-type poverty trap facing an expected level of long-term well-being that places them squarely in poverty.     

Community Participation in Local Governance – An Empirical Analysis of Urbanized Local Governments in the Philippines and Uganda

This article addresses community participation in local government, a controversial issue in the era of governance. Under the context of decentralisation reform in particular, active participation of the community in local governance has been expected, where as a range of critical arguments has been made on its concepts, ideas and feasibilities. Despite the significance of the issue, practices of community participation at the local level are academically under-examined, even in developed countries, let alone in developing countries. Given such situations, empirical observations from local governments of the Philippines and Uganda are introduced and comparatively analysed with in a specific analytical framework of participation. By doing so, the artide leads us to some keys to success for community participation schemes in the development context, which include the local leadership, functions of the central government and enhancing awareness of values of community participation both in the public and the local government.     

“Zdravljica” – toast to a cosmopolitan nation anthem quality in the Slovenian context

As with many states, in the case of Slovenia two songs principally contend for the position of national anthem. In this case an apparent ideological gulf masks perhaps a more essential temperamental divide: the bellicose army song versus the happy drinking “all together?…?” number. Vacillation between “Zdravljica” (“A Toast”) and “Naprej zastava slave,” (“Forward, Flag of Glory”) might be taken as reflecting the ambivalence with regard to potentially hostile others one reads attributed to Jesus Christ in the gospels of Matthew, Mark and Luke: who's not with me is against me/who's not against me is with me. The 1989 adoption of “Zdravljica” (lyrics courtesy of Slovenia's national poet France Pre?eren) is strongly suggestive of an outward looking state, one hoping for a place in a cosmopolitan Europe. “Naprej zastava slave” has remained the anthem of the Slovenian army and so is far from being discarded for the purpose of asserting Slovenian national aspirations. Perhaps retaining it in this minor role has been necessary because “Zdravljica” is a song which – at least as it is presently sung – de-emphasises national aspiration to a degree unusual for the anthem genre. In a crossroads of Europe dominated historically by the national (or imperial) aspirations of larger and more powerful political entities, “Zdravljica” is a song which tests the limits of what an anthem can be by holding out a hope of rising above the national.     

The environmental management system in the Republic of Macedonia – problems,issues and challenges

Starting with the premise that the environmental management system is an integral part of the multidimensional socio-economic, cultural and political system of a country, a critical overview of the existing environmental management system in Macedonia was conducted as a case study in an attempt to identify and evaluate the key problems, challenges, and issues that hinder the transition of post-communist countries. The analysis revealed that the same barriers were present in the different systems of many post-communist counties. These barriers may be overcome only by creating indigenous well educated personnel who understand the specifics of their country.     

‘It Depends on Them’ – Exploring Order and Disjuncture in Responding to the Local Needs of AIDS Affected Communities in the Kingdom of Swaziland

Abstract

Though the role of global–local partnerships in the HIV/AIDS response has been widely advocated, many social theorists question their ability to promote sustainable change in the lives of everyday communities. This is often related to the distance between policy and governance structures, and, the realities of life in AIDS affected communities. This article unpacks the specifics of this ‘distance’ in the context of the HIV/AIDS response in the Kingdom of Swaziland. A framework applies the notions of ‘order and disjuncture’ to structure a discussion of policy documents and a thematic analysis of focus group data with participants who ‘live’ the outputs of policies enabled by global–local partnerships. Findings uncover that programming and community difficulties emerge around assumptions about responsibility (which link back to international discourses on volunteerism) and actual requirements for supporting community life in the context of the pandemic.     

Not yet a democracy: establishing civilian authority over the security sector in Brazil – lessons for other countries in transition

Brazil is considered one of the more successful examples of democratic transition and consolidation in the developing world; and one of the fastest developing and emerging countries. This article contends that Brazil is not yet a fully established democracy, because it lacks the proper civilian checks and balances ensuring full authority over the armed forces, police and secret services. There are five main reasons for this: first, the Constitution does not provide a generalised guide for the institution of civilian oversight. Second, a change of cultural perceptions vis-à-vis the security sector entities is needed. Third, piecemeal rather than holistic or comprehensive legal and institutional transformation has occurred, with little civilian oversight of the armed forces. Fourth, the large structures still held by each of the armed forces require re-articulation and fundamental transformation. Finally, there is no fully fledged civil society participation in security sector life through the media and academia. These problems weaken democracy in Brazil. The course of democratisation in Brazil and the role the security sector played in the transition are examined before discussion of some of the more recent legal and political developments in the security sector, as part of the democratic consolidation. The conclusion presents insights from Brazil’s experience and lessons for states facing similar transition challenges.     

Staying the course in Mexico: the role of the US in the drug war, 2006–present

With drug-related violence reaching record levels in Mexico, there has been growing debate over its causes. US and Mexican officials blame many factors, including problems with their strategy in the drug war, fighting among cartels, corruption in police forces, an ineffective legal justice system and US drug demand. In this paper, I argue that the Mérida Initiative, a multi-billion dollar programme of US assistance, is an important additional factor. Drug-related violence increased in the years after the implementation of the Mérida Initiative, declined when Mexican officials paused new programmes in 2012 and increased again as US and Mexican officials implemented new Mérida programmes in the following years. Over the same time period, drug-related homicides and complementary counternarcotics assistance from the US Department of Defense are positively correlated. Using US records, I show that US officials have been willing to overlook the growing violence because they have been more focused on achieving their economic and strategic objectives. I conclude that their actions have played a significant role in increasing drug-related violence while starting an ominous new phase of US imperialism in Mexico.     

Disinvesting in America? the legacy of consumption policy in the 1980s

This article traces patterns of consumption, low productivity, debt accumulation and slow economic growth. Rather than calling for an increased emphasis on market and corporate incentives, the author calls for increased public investment. He favors particularly increases in scientific research and development and technology, in public works to rebuild the infrastructure, and calls for a public administration associated with increased investment in government.

The New Deal and the Great Society established the foundations of the public policy and administration of consumption—income transfer, entitlement, loan, loan guarantee, credit, subsidy, tax expenditure, and related programs designed to maintain or improve the income levels and social and economic well being of many elements of the United States population. Such programs now constitute approximately 50 percent of the federal budget. In the late 1980s, the United States entered into a new international economic, technological, and demographic order in which the public administration of investment will be increasingly important. The “public administration of investment” is defined as the administration of policies designed to produce future benefits for the nation through investment in people, knowledge and technology, the environment and public infrastructure, and public systems and public service.

Several trends in the 1980s contributed to the increasing importance of the public administration of investment. The first trend was the continuation of the low rate of productivity growth in the United States, a condition that has persisted since the early 1970s. ⁽¹⁾

Despite low productivity growth, the United States as a nation continues to spend as if productivity were increasing at pre-1973 rates and to borrow from other nations to make up the difference. The result has been large public and private debt. Increased productivity growth will require additional public as well as private investment if the United States is to maintain its standard of living and capacity to pursue social justice and other values into the next century.

The second trend has been the globalization of technology and the economy. The United States has been losing the comparative advantage it once enjoyed in many scientific and technological fields, as technological know-how has spread throughout the world. The United States fell further behind in the 1980s in the development of new production processes and in the commercialization of new processes and products in consumer electronics, semiconductors, and other fields.⁽²⁾ There is compelling evidence that both the private and public sectors underinvested in developing the scientific and technical workforce that will be essential in the global technological competition of the future.⁽³⁾ More generally, by many measures the education system of the United States has not been producing a well-educated workforce or well-educated citizens.⁽⁴⁾

The third trend of the ’80s was the maturation of the baby boom generation. This generation is now in the high consumption stage of its life cycle—homes, cars, and other consumer goods. The aging of the baby boom generation in the early decades of the twenty-first century will pose a complex challenge to public policy and administration. Early in the twenty-first century, the baby boomers will enter a stage of life usually marked by reduced consumption and higher saving.⁽⁵⁾ At the same time, increased longevity suggests growing demands on both public and private systems for income maintenance, health care, and social services. New technologies will compound health care costs. Unless saving and investment are increased now to partially support the baby boom generation in retirement, the “baby bust” generation that followed the baby boom will face a heavy burden of support.⁽⁶⁾ Currently, the Social Security Trust Fund does not have a single penny in it because the Treasury is borrowing the funds to reduce the federal deficit. Substantially increased productivity or substantially higher taxes will be necessary to replenish the fund in the early twenty-first century.

To compound the problem, by the year 2050, for the first time in American history (according to the middle series of Census projections), there will be more old than young Americans. The age cohort 60 and older will make up 28 percent of the population, while the age cohort 1-19 years will make up about 23 percent of the population.⁽⁷⁾ This is in stark contrast to the 16 percent of the population 60 and over, and the 32 percent of the population 1-19 years, in 1980. Greatly increased saving, increased productivity, substantially lower standards of living for working people, extended working years, or an influx of immigrant workers will be needed to produce the benefits that are promised in the entitlement programs of the federal government and expected by the American people.

Finally, many observers perceived an increase in private greed during the last decade in the United States and a growing indifference to common concerns—eroding public infrastructure, the highest infant mortality rate among industrialized nations, the highest rate of child poverty, and similar social conditions. They see a preoccupation with current pleasure at the expense of future benefits, and a decline in social discipline and civic virtue. To some observers, the United States has been in a temporary cycle of preoccupation with private needs.⁽⁸⁾ To others, civic virtue in the United States has been in decline.⁽⁹⁾

In any event, diminishing growth may intensify each individual's desire to protect his or her interests. In this context, redistribution in the pursuit of social equity will become increasingly difficult.     

Participatory Budgeting in Germany – A Review of Empirical Findings

Participatory budgeting (PB) is one of the most popular democratic innovations worldwide. PB is connected with high stakes regarding mobilizing political inactive citizens, efficient and effective budgetary policy as well as positive effects on citizens (e.g., civic education, democratic attitudes). However, in many Western countries empirical evidence for such benefits is scarce. This also holds for Germany. Since the conduction of PB demands financial and personnel resources, a thorough evaluation is necessary. This article systematically summarizes the current state of research to make the literature on PB in Germany accessible to international scholars as well as political and administrative practitioners. It focusses on the context (which municipalities conduct PB and why), process (role of local administration and council, participation, deliberation), and outcome/impact dimension (outcomes and impact on policies and citizens). To conclude, further research venues are briefly outlined, followed by an outlook on PBs future and practical implications.     

The BRICS – a paradigm shift in global health?

To what extent does the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) bloc constitute a paradigm shift in global health and development? This paper interrogates the concept of paradigm shift with the help of a framework familiar to scholars working in the field of International Relations. It distinguishes between the BRICS' material capabilities, institutions and ideas, and assesses the extent to which the BRICS contribution represents ‘a potentially transformative’ source of new resources and innovation for global health and development. It has been argued that the BRICS bloc champions a qualitatively different development discourse from industrialised countries that has made possible a progressive set of development practices. The BRICS discourse and praxis gives weight to the claim that a paradigm shift in global health is underway. However, the extent to which such discourse will be effective in improving global health will depend on the bloc making greater use of institutions and further deploying its material capabilities.     

Views of public health leaders in English local authorities – changing perspectives following the transfer of responsibilities from the National Health Service to local government

This paper reports on the findings of a research project that examined the changes to the public health system in England introduced in 2013. Drawing on case study research and two national surveys the findings explore the impact of organisational change on the composition and role of public health teams. Views and experiences were obtained from public health leaders involved in the transfer of staff and functions from the National Health Service in England to local authorities. National surveys at two points in time aimed to compare and contrast views on the evolving changes. The new organisational and managerial arrangements had enabled public health professionals to widen their work and influence, and public health skills and budgets were welcomed by those in local government. Initially, in some areas, directors of public health were less certain of the benefits of the transfer to local government compared to high levels of confidence expressed by elected members, but perspectives changed over time and moved closer together. National headline figures were found to mask high levels of turbulence and churn being experienced by individual authorities identified in the case study research, and the trend of reducing capacity through cuts to staff, budget and services was a cause for serious concern.     

Voting as a habit in new democracies – Evidence from Poland

Among the wide range of theories explaining why some people vote and others do not, one is recently gaining particular popularity. This is the theory of voting as a habit (e.g. Plutzer, 2002; Franklin, 2004; Hooghe, 2004). The empirical evidence supporting this theory covers only Western democracies, so the following question might be asked: is this pattern universal? In the case of old democracies, voting is a habit acquired gradually in a process which starts at the moment of the very first election one can cast the ballot. In new democracies the situation is different, as we can pinpoint the starting moment (first democratic election), which is the same for different voters and thus different age cohorts. In this paper we investigate voting as a habit in new democracies, using data from the Polish National Election Study. We find that voting in Poland has some habitual aspect; repeated voting brings about a (sort of) habit, which has an intrinsic, irreducible effect on voter turnout. We also find that habit of voting is formed likewise in all age cohorts.