Eurosceptic yet pro-enlargement: the paradoxes of Hungary’s EU policy

Abstract

The present article seeks to explore the main aspects of Hungary’s EU enlargement policy. It reveals a tension between the government’s committed support for EU enlargement and its critical stance towards the EU on several other fronts. However, on the basis of liberal intergovernmentalist theory, this article argues that this is not a real contradiction since enlargement to the Western Balkans serves Hungary’s national interests in spite of its government’s Euroscepticism. At the same time, Hungary’s questioning of the basic values of the EU as a community of liberal democracies has weakened the legitimacy of Hungarian interventions in favour of speeding up EU enlargement. While Hungary has become ever more isolated from the ‘old’ EU member states, more recently, its government managed to increase its leverage in the Western Balkans and central Europe in the context of the migration crisis.     

The Western Balkans and the EU budget: the effects of enlargement

ABSTRACT

The Western Balkan region needs credible European development prospects to break the cycle of enlargement and accession fatigue and to speed up regional adjustment to the EU. Post-accession EU budget flows can provide the necessary funding for such prospects. This article assesses the expected changes in the size and composition of EU budget flows to the Western Balkan countries after their EU accession. Our results show a sudden and substantial increase in gross and net flows, which gradually intensifies over several years before levelling off. EU budget flows are economically important relative to the size of the Western Balkan economies, and their composition is strongly biased towards development policies. We also find that Western Balkan enlargement comes at a minimal budgetary cost for the remaining EU member states. Our findings can help reduce scepticism behind the Western Balkan countries’ accession fatigue and the EU’s enlargement fatigue.     

Comparing public attitudes on EU membership in candidate countries: the cases of Croatia,Macedonia and Turkey from 2004 to 2011

Past enlargements of the European Union (EU) have demonstrated that public attitudes on European integration can influence the course of accession processes. Beyond the literature on public EU support in member states and former candidates, the dynamics that shape public attitudes on EU membership within recent candidate countries have not been systematically examined. Analysing nine Eurobarometer (EB) surveys from 2004 to 2011, we argue that evaluations of EU membership in Croatia, Macedonia and Turkey are shaped by utilitarian considerations, belief in various political institutions as well as the fear of losing national identity. The economic crisis of 2008 has changed public opinion towards EU membership in all three countries, but Turkey appears to have been affected the most compared to Croatia and Macedonia.     

EUROPE AND THE PROMOTION OF DEMOCRACY IN POST COLD WAR AFRICA: HOW SERIOUS IS EUROPE AND FOR WHAT REASON?

The ending of the Cold War brought new topics on the agendaof the international aid donors. Questions of democracy andhuman rights were voiced with rising intensity not least bythe European Union and by individual European countries. However,when it came to implementing the ambitious principles, boththe EU and the bilateral donors lacked a ‘serious’commitment. This is indicated by European policies towards SouthAfrica, Kenya, Niger and Algeria. The policies of the Europeanstowards Africa in the 1990s have primarily been influenced bysecurity concerns and thus by the narrow national interestsof individual donors. This is particularly manifest in the caseof France which has a dominating position within the developmentcooperation of the EU. Thus, only in very few exceptional instancesis it in the national interest of European donor states to promotemoral issues such as democracy and respect for human rights.In the 1990s such themes have become little more than the rhetoricof politicians and treaties, just as it was during the ColdWar.     

Between national and European foreign policy: the role of Latvia and Romania in the EU’s policy towards Central Asia

This article explores whether and to what extent new member states of the European Union (EU) seek to pursue their national foreign policy goals towards Central Asia through the EU rather than bilaterally. To do so, it focuses on Latvia and Romania. While the article finds evidence of Romanian attempts to project its interests in the region onto the EU level, Latvia appears to rely more extensively on the EU level to pursue its goals towards Central Asia. Using insights from the literature on Europeanization of national foreign policy, the article explains this finding with reference to four variables that determine whether a member state will seek to upload its national foreign policy preferences onto the EU level, namely the perceived salience of the policy goals, the extent to which member states can carve out a niche, their perceived capabilities and the level of Europeanization of their national foreign policies.     

Europeanisation or De-Europeanisation? Media Freedom in Turkey (1999–2015)

Abstract

The European Union (EU) has successfully been exercising its transformative power through both its enlargement and its neighbourhood policies for decades. Nonetheless, transformation towards a more European model of governance through Europeanisation is not a linear process, but a differentiated one. Adverse consequences for Europeanisation (i.e. de-Europeanisation) have often been neglected. The case of media freedom in Turkey, with a deteriorating trend across time, exemplifies such an outcome. This article explores media freedom in Turkey in the last decade. It argues that media reforms have been reversed over time in a de-Europeanising trend, with the EU losing its position as a reference point for reforms.     

The United Kingdom and EU enlargement in the Western Balkans: from ardent champion of expansion to Post-Brexit irrelevance

Abstract

This article examines the United Kingdom’s approach to the question of European Union enlargement in the Western Balkans. It shows that while Britain had no traditional attachment to the region, it championed expansion as part of its long-standing aim to widen EU membership to prevent deeper political union. However, as immigration from the EU increased after the 2004 enlargement and a Eurosceptic Conservative-led government took charge in 2010, official support for enlargement began to decline. Britain ceded its place to Germany as the strongest supporter of EU expansion. Meanwhile, during the referendum campaign on EU membership, the prospect that future enlargement could further increase the number of migrants emerged as a central point of debate. Although this discussion was primarily focused on Turkey, the Western Balkans also played a part. Therefore, even had the United Kingdom decided to remain in the EU, there is an argument to be made that Britain could well have become more opposed towards future expansion. As it is, the decision to leave the EU (Brexit), has ensured that Britain has now all but lost its say over enlargement.     

Towards conflict or cooperation? The Ukraine crisis and EU-Russia relations

The Ukraine crisis and Russia’s contribution to it have raised numerous concerns regarding the possible emergence of a new ‘Cold War’ in Europe. At the same time, Ukraine’s popular choice and enthusiasm for European integration expressed clearly on the streets of Kyiv seem to have caused Russia to adopt a (neo)revisionist attitude. In this context, relations between Russia and the EU (and the West for that matter) have been limited, frozen and directed on path towards conflict. This article analyses how the traditional dichotomy between conflict and cooperation in EU–Russia relations was replaced by conflict in the context of the Ukraine crisis. The article contends that the breakdown of the symbolic and peaceful cohabitation between the EU and Russia has been influenced by the fact that both actors have chosen to ignore key tensions that characterized their post-Cold War interactions. The article identifies three such tensions: the first emphasizes divisions between EU member states and their impact on coagulating a common EU approach towards Russia; the second (geopolitical) tension highlights the almost mutually exclusive way in which the EU and Russia’s security interests have developed in the post-Soviet space; finally, the third contends that a clash of values and worldviews between the EU and Russia makes conflict virtually unavoidable.     

Between indifference and hesitation: France and EU enlargement towards the Balkans

Abstract

France’s hesitant stance on EU enlargement towards the Balkans is illustrative of a broader ambivalence among both French elites and citizens towards the European project. Despite principled support for the Balkans’ EU membership, achieving this step is no strategic priority for France. The official approach emphasizes strict conditionality and a rigorous monitoring of reform progress in aspirant countries. A hostile public opinion and superficial media coverage further strengthen the country’s reluctance to admit new, possibly unprepared candidates into the Union. Analysing the historical evolution of the French position on EU enlargement as well as its current political, institutional and societal expressions, this article construes France’s disinvestment from the Balkans’ EU perspective as the result of failed expectations and a growing disillusionment with the EU’s international role and its political future more broadly.     

Greece and EU enlargement to the Western Balkans: understanding an ambivalent relationship

Abstract

Greece’s position towards the EU’s enlargement to the Western Balkans remains ambivalent: on the one hand, Greece remains declaratively one of the most ardent supporters of integrating the whole Balkan region into the EU; on the other hand, Greece is also a persistent obstructing factor whenever its multiple interests in the Balkans produce friction. We investigate this ambivalent position to understand its origins. We argue that Greece’s position can be understood with reference to three key factors: (a) the particularities of Greece’s foreign policy-making and its persistent traits, (b) the background of Greece’s relationship with the region and the legacy of multiple disputes that were created or exacerbated in the early post-Communist period and (c) the legacy of turning EU enlargement policy into a Greek foreign policy tool during the 1990s. These factors not only explicate the existence and persistence of Greece’s ambivalent policies, but also are likely to continue to shape Greece’s enlargement policy in the future. In that context, we expect that Greece will engage in a delicate balance of, on the one hand, strategically placing conditionality to ensure favourable compromises with neighbours, and, on the other, not jeopardizing the continuation of the enlargement process per se.     

Europe and China: Convergence,Politicization and Assertiveness

Relations between the People's Republic of China and the European Union have matured significantly. While the European Commission is actively promoting an EU China policy, the influence of the member states continues to be a defining element. In this regard, most studies and political comments call for greater coherence in European China policies. Looking at recent debates and programmes in five member states, the paper identifies three trends: programmatic convergence, the politicisation of bilateral relations within member states and an increasing assertiveness towards the PRC.     

Economic,trade and development relations between South Africa and the European Union: The end of a strategic partnership? A South African perspective

ABSTRACT

The relationship between democratic South Africa and the European Union (EU) has been in existence for over 20 years, with its roots tracing back to anti-apartheid support measures. In its earlier form, it was anchored in the Reconstruction and Development Programme. Currently, it is guided by the National Development Plan of the National Planning Commission. This relationship has been tested over time, especially as a result of negotiations over the Economic Partnership Agreement with the EU. In the meantime, the euphoria that marked new South Africa's participation in the global system, with trade and development cooperation with the EU as one of the cornerstones, has waned considerably. The cancellation of several bilateral investment treaties with EU member states has further strained the relationship. While there are notable successes in the EU–South Africa Strategic Partnership, these may not be reflective of the actual strategic value of the partnership in the context of global shifts and the rising influence of emerging powers with which South Africa is integrating.     

Europeanisation and De-Europeanisation Dynamics in Turkey: The Case of Environmental Organisations

Abstract

While Europeanisation of civil society in Turkey has received considerable attention, there has been much less interest in how environmental organisations, as key civil society actors, have been affected by Europeanisation/de-Europeanisation dynamics. Interviews with civil society representatives and European Union (EU) and Turkish policy-makers indicate that the EU impact on environmental organisations has been ambivalent, and that Europeanisation dynamics are intertwined with the adverse consequences of these processes. While Turkey’s EU candidacy has empowered civil society through both EU-isation and Europeanisation, there has also been a remarkable rise of scepticism towards the EU’s civil society strategy and the EU has lost its attractiveness as a normative context in environmental debates.     

The Limits of Normative Power Europe in Asia: The Case of Human Rights in China

In recent years an increasing number of works on EU international actorness have begun to focus on notions of “normative, value-driven external policy”. However, the majority of these works tend to uncritically analyse EU foreign policy without considering its internal complexity and the existing national, supranational and intergovernmental dynamics. This paper first sheds light on these issues by proposing an original theoretical and analytical framework to study European, rather than merely EU, normative foreign policy. Secondly, this paper attempts to empirically apply such a framework in the specific case of European human rights promotion in China. What emerges is that in the case of China, and Asia more broadly, Europe appears more as a normative trap, where the interaction of EU institutions and member states originate policies not in line with the EU human rights normative basis.     

Migration in the enlarged European Union: Empirical evidence for labour mobility in the Baltic states

Abstract

The free movement of workers again is a hot issue with regard to the Eastern enlargement of the European Union (EU). Members of the EU are extremely anxious of mass immigration flows from Central and Eastern Europe countries (CEECs). This paper analyses the socio-economic and demographic impacts of migration in the context of the next EU enlargement. How many people might migrate from the Eastern European transition countries to Western Europe, and what will be the socio-economic and demographic consequences of this emigration for the home countries? After providing a short overview of the theoretical literature and the empirical evidence on the socio-economic determinants of migration, the next section discusses the historical evidence of the migrant flows from the candidate countries into the EU. We draw on suggestions from the literature as well as on our empirical work. In the following parts, we evaluate the size and the structure of current and future migration to Western Europe following the opening up of the transition countries in the beginning of the 1990s. This part quantitatively evaluates the future migration pressure, based on the economic and demographic situation in the Baltic states and Western Europe. In the last section, we discuss the policy implication of our econometric analysis, and draw policy conclusions.     

Cyprus and EU enlargement to the Western Balkans: a balancing act*

Abstract

Cyprus’ commitment to the European perspective of the Western Balkans is shaped by a range of factors. As well as balancing its national interests, it also aims to stand by a ‘position of principles’ on conflict issues. It equally seeks to be a reliable partner to the EU and move closer to its Western allies, while accommodating its Eastern ones. Nevertheless, over the last 10 years, Nicosia has Europeanised its policies and thinking. This has seen it reach out to Kosovo to try and build de facto relations. However, since the ‘national problem’ remains at the core of its foreign policy, relations with ‘motherland’ Greece are also key. This has in turn complicated dealings with the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. Overall, Cyprus remains more firmly focused on the Middle East, making it a rather peripheral actor in the Western Balkan countries’ EU integration process.     

Sources of EU Support: The Case of Germany

The determinants of support for European integration and the European Union have been analysed by previous research from a comparative perspective: factors that help to explain the differences between the levels of support of the EU member states are considered to be the factors that drive EU support in general. This article takes a different approach using a cross-time perspective to identify the sources of EU support and to investigate the causal structure of the effects. We analyse German support for European integration which is very volatile over time and test potential explanations for these fluctuations. Three bundles of factors are considered: the economy, the increasing scope of EU policies, and the domestic political process. It appears that all three are associated with fluctuations of German support for European integration. However, domestic politics seems to be mightier than often understood. The empirical evidence that is presented in support of these claims is taken from the Mannheim Eurobarometer Trendfile and recent Eurobarometer surveys, from the Comparative Political Data Set, and from the official handbook of the Bundestag.     

German expellee organisations in the enlarged EU

This article examines German expellees (Vertriebene) as an interest group in domestic and enlarged European Union contexts. While their background and motivations may be unique, they have similarities to other non-party actors aiming to influence political and/or legal processes. German governments have made rhetorical and financial expressions of support but privileged foreign policy considerations over core expellee demands and sought to contain them as an internal issue. EU enlargement and accession by CEE states to its legal bases has been interpreted as opening new possibilities. A ‘Europeanising’ of ‘justice’ may have unintended implications for relations among European states and peoples.     

Brexit,Development Aid,and the Commonwealth

Abstract

Development cooperation between the European Union (EU) and the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) group of states has provided a vehicle for the UK’s ongoing relationship with the majority of the Commonwealth, although this was widely overlooked in the run-up to the UK referendum and its aftermath. Membership of the EU has provided the UK with the opportunity to collectivise its obligations to ACP Commonwealth states and a framework for its development cooperation relations across the Global South. This has augmented British leadership in global development and the alignment of development policy and practice at the global, regional and national levels. This paper argues that withdrawal from the EU would be a lengthy and costly process that threatens to undermine the UK’s position in global development, current levels and sources of development funding and existing and nascent trade relations. While this will present particular challenges for ACP Commonwealth states, there may also be opportunities to propose and advocate for alternative frameworks. However, recent changes to the UK’s post-referendum political leadership does not augur well for those hoping for a roll back of pressures for liberalisation and associated reforms.     

Intra-European Bargaining and the ‘Tower of Babel’ EU Approach to the Burmese Conundrum

Since the 1990 imposition of an arms embargo, the European Union has kept on furthering its sanction policies towards Burma’s military regime in response to its poor record on human rights and authoritarian rule over the country. However, more than a decade after the 1996 EU Common Position on Burma, the European approach to the Burmese conundrum has still failed to achieve its initial objective of facilitating a transition to democracy and of stimulating aid and development in the country. This article seeks to underline the limits of the EU position by highlighting the internal and external obstacles the Europeans have been facing in their policymaking process towards Burma. It is argued that the varied and multiple interests of the 27 EU members; an influential European public opinion favouring an attitude of ostracism; and misunderstandings or miscalculations in appreciating the current state of Burmese affairs have hindered the EU from playing an efficacious role. Moreover these factors also impede its reappraisal.