Vatican intelligence capabilities in the second world war

Stephen Koch, Double Lives: Stalin, Willi Münzenberg and the Seduction of the Intellectuals (London: HarperCollins 1994) Pp.419, 20 illus. biblio. index. £20. ISBN 0–00–255516–6.

Jenny Rees, Looking for Mr Nobody: The Secret Life of Gorowny Rees (London: Weidenfeld and Nicholson, 1994) Pp.291, 30 illus. biblio. index. £18.99. ISBN 0–297–81430–3.

V.E. Tarrant, The Red Orchestra: the Soviet Spy Network Inside Nazi Europe (London: Arms and Armour Press, 1995) Pp.224, biblio. index. £15.99. ISBN 1–85409–216–2.

Anthony Cave Brown, Treason in the Blood: H. St John Philby, Kim Philby and the Spy Case of the Century (London: Hale 1995) Pp.678, 23 illus. biblio. index. £25. ISBN 0–7090–5582‐X.     

Scrutinizing France: collecting and using newspaper intelligence during world war II

After the fall of France in June 1940, it became crucial for Britain to obtain grass-roots information on her former ally. Newspapers of all types were recognized to be a key source. This article investigates how intelligence material was gathered, analyzed and diffused and how it was used by a large number of government departments. The Royal Institute of International Affairs had set up the Foreign Research Press Service, which played an effective centralizing role. This article also demonstrates that the level of cooperation between the French and British departments was better than usually acknowledged and resulted in well-informed and perceptive reports.     

The spoils of war

Antony Beevor's Berlin: The Downfall 1945 has been an international best-selling history of the fall of Berlin to Soviet troops in 1945. Now published in paperback, Beevor's magisterial narrative of Berlin's downfall has become a leading work of contemporary popular history. The public discussion of this book has been dominated by two themes: first, the ‘normalization’ of the suffering of German civilians and, second, the ‘disclosure’ of mass rapes by the liberating Soviet army in Germany. This review traces how key debates concerning the remembrance of the Second World War form these dominant readings of Berlin. In particular, it examines the formation of the re-remembering of the wartime rapes of Berlin women, and considers the implications of Beevor's account of the downfall of Berlin for how we understand sexual violence in armed conflict.     

Foreign policy indicators: Predictors of war in history and in the state of the world message

Despite the promising advances in the construction and use of social indicators, there has been little application to the formulation, monitoring, or evaluation of foreign policy. In the formulation stage—our concern here—predictor or early warning indicators could be very useful. The annual state of the world message contains many such predictive indicators of war, but in a purely verbal and intuitive form. Three of these (prior war, relative capabilities, and alliance levels) are converted into operational language and then put to the empirical test. In general, the indicators do not predict war (over the past 150 years) as postulated by the Administration. These tests are, however, very incomplete, and our objective is not to evaluate the Administration's arguments, but to suggest one way in which indicators could improve the quality of foreign policy formulation.This is a revised and abbreviated version of the paper originally prepared for the 1972 meetings of the American Political Science Association held in Washington, D.C. We want to acknowledge the important assistance of Hugh Wheeler, the comments and help of John Stuckey, Russell Leng, Stuart Bremer, Catherine Kelleher, and Charles Gochman, and the support of the National Science Foundation under grant no. GS-28476X1.     

Protecting human rights in the era of uncertainty: How not to lose the war against ISIS

As the brutal and violent attacks on civilian populations multiply throughout the world perpetrated by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS or ISIL, or the Islamic State, also known as Daesh), the need for an effective response to terrorism has grown in intensity. The ISIS attacks in Paris have in particular introduced a wave of nationalist, securitized alarm, reinforcing a general concern about the influx of immigrants and asylum seekers while underscoring the shift from a regional to international nature of both threat and risk. These issues of security and terrorism have also illustrated the willingness of great powers to support military actions against ISIS in order to stem the atrocities perpetrated by this group, while placing the overthrow of the Assad regime on the backburner for the time being at least. We argue that the defeat of ISIS need not be accomplished by stigmatizing refugees and subjecting them to religious litmus tests. Closing Europe's porous borders and politicizing the attempt to admit refugees at a time when the growing humanitarian crisis poses mounting human rights challenges to the international community is fundamentally wrongheaded. We argue that these approaches, while temporarily satisfying, strengthen the hand of ISIS and other terrorist groups that tend to portray such policies and practices largely in terms of civilizational clashes. Defeating ISIS requires strategic patience and long-term logical and prudent decision making. While doing so, it is important to avoid the enemy's repressive, atavistic, and unsavory methods. The burden is on the international community to fulfill the commitment to international human rights law and international humanitarian law, which continue to be one of the most effective and legitimate tools in our arsenal to confront terrorism.     

The importance of uncertainty in a two-stage theory of constitutions

This paper analyzes the consequences of different assumptions regardingthe kind of uncertainty that exists at the constitutional stage of a two-stage political process. Individuals at the constitutional stagedecide the actions that are to be allowed, compelled or banned in thesubsequent stage. The analysis allows us to specify conditions under whichcertain bans and obligations might be included in a constitution, whileothers are decided by legislative action, to define the ``optimal votingrule'', and the conditions under which the majority rule is this optimalrule. The paper provides a unified framework for analyzing the choice ofinstitutions in a two-stage constitutional political system.     

The world as a moral community

He is the author and co-author of numerous books, among them The Sociology of the Future; The Democratic Revolution in the West Indies; Decisions of Nationhood; Jamaican Leaders; Ethnicity, and Nation Building; Public Leadership;and Social Area Analysis.He is currently working on a book titled Foundations of the Futures Field.     

The percolating proxy war in Yemen

Saudi Arabia and the UAE's military intervention against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, hesitantly supported by the United States, is an opportune way for Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to roll back Iran in the region. But it is also taking a severe toll on Yemen's infrastructure and population that is likely to increase pressure for reinvigorated conflict resolution efforts.     

Provoking a civil war

Nondemocratic governments under the rule of weak institutions use repression against the opposition to remain in power. Repression both muffles the opposition’s voice and strengthens the government’s supporters. Nevertheless, when repression becomes strong enough, it becomes intolerable to its victims who revolt and initiate a civil war. The government is aware of the mechanism and determines the level of repression accordingly. This paper studies the circumstances in which the ruler’s best alternative is to intensify repression to the point of provoking civil war. Although the model is abstract, its implications are discussed using the recent civil war in the Ivory Coast as a case study.