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Survival analysis: A survey   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
This paper is a survey of statistical methods used to analyze the length of time until a specified event occurs. These models have often been used to analyze the survival times (i.e., time until death) of medical patients, and so the term survival analysis is natural. In criminology, the main application of these models has been to analyze the time until recidivism, but many other applications are possible. The paper summarizes the statistical literature on survival analysis, and describes its applications in criminology. The methods are illustrated by an application to the prediction of time until recidivism for a sample of North Carolina prison releasees.  相似文献   

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In response to the public outcry for mandatory testing for AIDS, this Article explores the major issues concerning the identification of persons with AIDS in society. The Article first studies testing procedures and the purposes behind them to determine if a call for mandatory testing of the general populace would better achieve society's objectives for identifying individuals with AIDS. Concluding that testing should not be required of the population as a whole, the Article then explores whether testing should be required of certain subpopulations which society perceives as likely to have or to spread the disease. In this context, too, the Article concludes that mandatory testing would be unwarranted, and that funds proposed for mandatory testing would be put to better use in education and universal precautions to prevent the further spread of AIDS.  相似文献   

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Despite increased interest in child abuse and neglect in the past decade, little research attention has been focused on maltreatment in handicapped populations. This is surprising given that many handicapped children display characteristics (e.g., chronic and pervasive behavioral disturbances, decreased social initiations with caregivers) that are associated with high risk for assault and neglect in nonhandicapped children. Numerous investigations have found an overrepresentation of handicapped children in maltreated samples, and results of more recent efforts reveal a high incidence of abuse and neglect in handicapped populations. Although these data underscore the high risk for maltreatment in handicapped children, a number of important issues warrant further empirical examination. Moreover, generalizations and interpretations of findings from previous research have been obfuscated by methodological shortcomings. The present paper reviews the literature concerning abuse and neglect of handicapped children. Research strategies and issues are delineated and current problems in this field are discussed. Suggestions for directions future research might take are offered.  相似文献   

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This article details the history and development of the National Highway and Safety Administration's Standardized Field Sobriety Tests. They are reviewed in terms of relevant scientific, psychometric, and legal issues. It is concluded that the research that supports their use is limited, important confounding variables have not been thoroughly studied, reliability is mediocre, and that their developers and prosecution-oriented publications have oversold the tests. Further, case law since their development has severed the tests from their validation data, so that they are not admissible on the criterion for which they were validated (blood alcohol concentration), and admissible for a criterion for which they were not (mental, physical, or driving impairment). Directions for further research are presented.  相似文献   

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Abstract

The objective of this study was to obtain a quantitative measure of the discussion behaviour of real eyewitnesses. Undergraduate psychology students were given a questionnaire to determine if they had witnessed a serious event. Results from the questionnaire showed that the majority of respondents had witnessed a serious event at some point in their lives, and the majority of witnesses were not alone when they observed the event. Respondents who had experienced a serious event for which there was more than one witness present were invited to fill out a follow-up questionnaire. The follow-up study showed that when there is a co-witness present, most people (86%) report discussing the event with the co-witness. This is potentially problematic if the witnesses are contaminating one another's memories of the event. The results are discussed in terms of psychological research and policy implications.  相似文献   

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The purpose of this paper is to explore the “critical thinking” approach to teaching and develop those concepts into meaningful instructional activities in the classroom. The authors offer practical suggestions based on the critical thinking philosophy for implementing an active learning approach. The case study method serves as the foundation for an investigative process course and lead-up activity to the simulated preliminary and follow-up investigation. The instructor presents the critical thinking process and content information that enables students to perform five basic progressions: (1) case studies; (2) the preliminary investigation; (3) follow-up; (4) suppression hearing; and (5) moot court criminal justice simulations.  相似文献   

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This article explores the reasons for the introduction of anticorruption agencies of a specific type in Eastern Europe. It is argued that one of the important functions of these agencies—which are stronger on information gathering, coordination and strategy rather than on investigation of concrete cases—is to give to the government some leverage over the anticorruption discourse. Presenting the anticorruption commissions and agencies as (discourse-controlling) instruments gives an answer to the troubling question why governing parties are at all interested in the introduction of such bodies. Apart from instrumentalization in political discourse, anticorruption bodies in Eastern Europe have had other effects as well. As shown in the Baltic case, institutional engineering provides for a brief window of opportunity during which political forces committed to integrity could gain the upper hand. The problem in Eastern Europe, however, is not the lack of such windows of opportunities—it is more the lack of really committed political forces capable of continuous and consistent anticorruption effort.  相似文献   

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The Southern Association of Criminal Justice Educators (SACJE) is a regional professional organization which was developed to improve professionalism in criminal justice. In recent years the organization seemed to loose its focus and was having membership and budgetary problems. The authors, in an attempt to understand the feelings of members and former members, surveyed current and prior members of SACJE. The results of the survey are presented with recommendations for action by the SACJE Executive Board. Several areas of consensus were evident. The membership wants SACJE to continue to exist. The role of the organization is to promote better criminal justice education and to disseminate new criminal justice information. The membership wants annual meetings and the Southern Journal of Criminal Justice published twice yearly. They also want voting by mail on all major issues and elections. All other voting should be conducted at a business meeting on the second day of a three day annual meeting.  相似文献   

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The conceptual framework for measuring the economic cost of crime is reviewed. Although this framework is generally accepted, specific applications are shown to contain conceptual errors. In the drug abuse area, where the greatest number of applications have been made, serious misapplications are documented. Because of these conceptual flaws and careless extrapolation of estimates that are hardly more than guesses, the total economic cost of drug-related crime has been greatly overestimated. The result has been to reinforce the policy emphasis on law enforcement and to mislead the public as to the important sources and magnitude of the total economic cost of drug abuse.  相似文献   

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The results of a survey conducted to determine the extent and effectiveness of present correctional study-release programs and policies are presented, and direction is offered for the expansion of such programs based on current practices.  相似文献   

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This research addressed how professionals involved with the legal system evaluate children, primarily between 4 and 8 years old, as witnesses. In particular, we focused on professionals’ beliefs and opinions regarding children's memory, suggestibility, and behaviors as they relate to witness credibility. In addition, we surveyed professionals’ evaluations of investigative methods related to reliability. Four hundred and seventy-eight professionals working with children in the Norwegian legal system (i.e. judges, police detectives, psychologists, child psychiatrists, prosecutors, and defense attorneys) completed a questionnaire about child witness issues. Results indicated that psychiatrists as well as police officers expressed greater belief in children's capacities than did other groups, whereas defense attorneys and psychologists were more skeptical regarding children's general credibility. Psychiatrists and psychologists both, however, tended to favor, more than did legal professionals, the use of clinical techniques with children in abuse investigations. Implications are discussed in relation to professionals’ attitudes toward children as witnesses.  相似文献   

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The literature defining advocacy for battered women is almost nonexistent and there is no systematic research on its parameters. This article reports the results of a national survey of 379 advocacy services in the United States. Findings on organizational context, definitions of advocacy, client issues and concerns, advocate activities, and advocate interactions with other social systems are presented. Possible explanations of an apparent emphasis on individual over system change are discussed.  相似文献   

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《Justice Quarterly》2012,29(3):415-427

This paper illustrates some general analytic procedures which may be helpful in assessing various assumptions underlying alternative models in the causal analysis of panel data. The role of two basic mechanisms of change, temporal inertia and entropic decay, is specifically examined. The models developed are evaluated using data on changes in the politicalization of 172 male felons over a six-month period following their incarceration in a maximum security institution in the southeast. Several issues and problems in drawing causal inferences from panel data are addressed.  相似文献   

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