“Survival of the fittest:” Domestic and international dimensions of the authoritarian reaction in the former Soviet Union following the colored revolutions

This article examines the internal and external reactions by post-Soviet autocrats to the colored revolutions. First, the colored revolutions provoked incumbents in Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, and other post-Soviet countries to strengthen domestic efforts to preempt opposition challenges. Preemptive measures included restrictions on independent civil society, disruptions of independent electoral monitoring, promotion of pro-government civil society groups, and assaults on opposition and democracy assistance. Such actions, together with already existing endowments, allowed these regimes to survive. Next, the colored revolutions stimulated increased coordination among non-democratic states to squash opposition. Measures included counter-monitoring of elections to offset Western claims of fraud, and increased efforts at military and economic cooperation such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Simultaneously, Russia sought to destabilize Georgia and Ukraine through economic and, in Georgia, military pressure. This authoritarian backlash following the colored revolutions buttressed the surviving autocracies, which prospects for democratization have become even more bleak and distant.     

The Politics of Urban Bias: Rural Threats and the Dual Dilemma of Political Survival

Urban bias in government policy is a common phenomenon in many developing countries. Bates (1981) has famously argued that the wish to industrialize, paired with the political clout of urban residents, results in distinctly anti-rural policies. Empirically, however, the strength of urban bias varies substantially across countries and over time. This paper explains this variation by developing an argument about a countervailing force to urban bias: the threat of a rural insurgency. The direction of urban and rural bias is a function of the political threat that geographically distinct groups pose to the survival of the central government. When the rural periphery lacks collective action capacity, urban bias emerges, but if there exists a credible threat of rural violence, urban bias is diminished. I test this proposition and competing explanations using data on net taxation in the agricultural sector, covering up to 55 low- and middle-income countries from 1955 to 2007. The results show a strong relationship between past territorial conflict (which proxies for credible rural threats) and lower levels of urban bias in the developing world. The findings are robust to alternative model specifications, measures, and sensitivity analyses.     

在生存与失范之间——青年农民工越轨心理的二维路径分析

随着社会主义市场经济体制的逐步确立,城乡交流日益频密,越来越多的农村青年进城务工,这一群体具有较高的社会活动能量,他们在给城市带来巨大发展的同时,也引发了一些社会问题。如青年农民工的越轨问题。本文拟从社会体制结构及群体心理这两个纬度对青年农民工的越轨心理进行路径分析,并希冀能够给城市管理体制的改进有所裨益。     

A Survival Analysis of U.S. Municipalities in Fiscal Distress

This article uses survival analysis to investigate fiscal distress in U.S. municipalities. We hypothesize that fiscal distress is positively correlated with revenue concentration and debt usage, and negatively correlated with administrative costs and entity resources. We develop a model that can predict the likelihood of fiscal distress and correctly classify up to 86 percent of the sampled governments. The model enables users to analyze the impact of a change in the risk factors. Fiscal distress can be reduced most effectively by increasing tax revenues as a percent of total revenues or decreasing total debt as a percent of total revenues.     

Female Survival Calculations in Politically Violent Settings: How Political Violence and Terrorism Are Viewed as Pathways to Life

Evolutionary theory's utility for the study of political phenomena, including war and nationalism, has been demonstrated. However, these studies fail to explain substate violence, including terrorism, and rarely evaluate whether cost-benefit analyses differ for males and females. This article seeks to demonstrate that evolutionary theory provides intriguing insights into two phenomena that observers find difficult to understand: political violence, including terrorism and self-sacrifice in the form of suicide attacks, and female political violence.     

热话题与冷思考(二十三)--关于时代发展与政党现代化的一些思考

早在1996年,您就在<政党的危机--国外政党运行机制研究>一书中提出:"政党政治进一步现代化的问题已经提上日程."现在越来越多的人关注"政党现代化"这个问题,但在那时人们对"政党现代化"这个词还相当陌生,所以您的提法应该说十分"前卫".那么,您当时是如何考虑这个问题的呢?     

我国“外来人员第二代”犯罪的预防与治理

随着中国改革开放与现代化政策的实施、城市化进程的不断深入，中国有越来越多的农民进城谋生，由于户籍制度等社会原因，他们下一代的问题日趋突现。根据社会和谐发展的理念，笔者从我国“外来人员第二代”的现实境遇出发，提出了对这个群体犯罪问题的预防与治理对策，以供社会有关部门作为决策参考与借鉴。     

关于苏共败亡的几点思考--从三个代表思想看苏共败亡的教训

苏共败亡的原因,归根到底在于苏共违背了先进生产力发展要求,背离了先进文化前进方向,脱离了广大人民群众,丧失了人民群众的信任.三个代表思想的提出,说明我们党不仅善于总结自己的历史经验,而且善于借鉴和吸取其他政党成败的经验和教训.     

中国共产党对时代潮流的新认识

江泽民同志在"七一"讲话中,阐明了中国共产党对时代潮流的新认识.认清时代潮流,有助于把握时代的本质特征.20世纪70年代初,中国共产党曾将"国家要独立,民族要解放,人民要革命"概括为历史潮流.70年代以后,兴起了新的时代潮流,江泽民同志将其概括为:"世界要和平,人民要合作,国家要发展,社会要进步."这不仅对于国家制定对内对外政策具有重大意义,而且有利于人们加深对时代主题的理解和正确判断世界大事中的是非.     

克里姆林宫易帜十年祭

苏联之亡,戈尔巴乔夫及其所代表的那一代苏共领导人有不可回避的重大历史责任,但根源在于其制度基因和历史演变."斯大林模式"不过是斯大林主义的乌托邦,并非社会主义的合适的社会模式;大俄罗斯主义的单一制国家是导致苏联解体的重要原因之一;社会帝国主义、霸权主义、核军备竞赛、国民经济军事化都是导致苏联衰败的原因;极权官僚制度及其必然的腐败最终葬送了党和国家,苏联是"自杀自灭",亡于"脑坏死".     

欧洲左翼政党大整合

2004年5月8-9日,欧洲左翼党成立大会在罗马召开,300多位来自欧盟部分国家的共产党和左翼政党的代表出席了大会,德国民社党、意大利重建共、西班牙联合左翼、希腊左联党等欧盟12国的14个共产党与左翼政党成为该党首批成员.法共和捷克波西米亚--摩拉维亚共产党虽出席了成立大会,但由于党内有不同意见或对建党呼吁书内容持有异议,决定暂不正式参加新党.大会一致选举意大利重建共全国书记法乌斯托·贝尔蒂诺蒂为该党主席.另外,葡共、德国的共、北欧绿党左翼联盟、古巴共、巴西共、日共等22个来自欧、亚、拉美的左翼政党和组织应邀派代表与会.     

After the fall of the soviet union: the changing status of local governments in the republic of latvia

When the Republic of Latvia gained its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, one of Latvia's first priorities was to rebuild its system of local government. This article describes many of the problems local governments in Latvia faced after 50 years of communist rule. The article also discusses the new Latvian laws which changed the structure of local government in that country. Also discussed are Latvian central government institutions which impacted on local governments in general and local government finances in particular. The unique status of the Capitol City of Riga, Latvia's largest municipality is also reviewed in detail.