“Survival of the fittest:” Domestic and international dimensions of the authoritarian reaction in the former Soviet Union following the colored revolutions

This article examines the internal and external reactions by post-Soviet autocrats to the colored revolutions. First, the colored revolutions provoked incumbents in Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, and other post-Soviet countries to strengthen domestic efforts to preempt opposition challenges. Preemptive measures included restrictions on independent civil society, disruptions of independent electoral monitoring, promotion of pro-government civil society groups, and assaults on opposition and democracy assistance. Such actions, together with already existing endowments, allowed these regimes to survive. Next, the colored revolutions stimulated increased coordination among non-democratic states to squash opposition. Measures included counter-monitoring of elections to offset Western claims of fraud, and increased efforts at military and economic cooperation such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Simultaneously, Russia sought to destabilize Georgia and Ukraine through economic and, in Georgia, military pressure. This authoritarian backlash following the colored revolutions buttressed the surviving autocracies, which prospects for democratization have become even more bleak and distant.     

Poverty and Survival

A recent literature highlights the uncertainty concerning whether economic growth has any causal protective effect on health and survival. But equal rates of growth often deliver unequal rates of poverty reduction and absolute deprivation is more clearly relevant. Using state-level panel data for India, we contribute the first estimates of the impact of changes in poverty on infant survival. We identify a significant within-state relationship which persists conditional upon state income, indicating the size of survival gains from redistribution in favour of households below the poverty line. The poverty elasticity declines over time after 1981. It is invariant to controlling for income inequality but diminished upon controlling for education, fertility and state health expenditure, and eliminated once we introduce controls for omitted trends.     

The Survival of Spanish Provincial Governments in a Quasi-Federal Polity: Reframing the Debate

Despite harsh criticisms, Spanish provincial governments (diputaciones) have survived for 200 years and have remained practically unchanged since the Transition. The survival of diputaciones in a proto-regional state is clearly a paradox that requires consideration of a range of potential explanations. Drawing upon extensive empirical investigation within and around three provincial governments in 2013–2014 (Seville, Barcelona, and Valencia), the survival of the diputaciones is illuminated by the path dependency and functional arguments, but it is most convincingly explained in terms of cartel (party) politics. The impact of the 2008 economic crisis has stretched these “party bargains” to breaking point.     

The Politics of Urban Bias: Rural Threats and the Dual Dilemma of Political Survival

Urban bias in government policy is a common phenomenon in many developing countries. Bates (1981) has famously argued that the wish to industrialize, paired with the political clout of urban residents, results in distinctly anti-rural policies. Empirically, however, the strength of urban bias varies substantially across countries and over time. This paper explains this variation by developing an argument about a countervailing force to urban bias: the threat of a rural insurgency. The direction of urban and rural bias is a function of the political threat that geographically distinct groups pose to the survival of the central government. When the rural periphery lacks collective action capacity, urban bias emerges, but if there exists a credible threat of rural violence, urban bias is diminished. I test this proposition and competing explanations using data on net taxation in the agricultural sector, covering up to 55 low- and middle-income countries from 1955 to 2007. The results show a strong relationship between past territorial conflict (which proxies for credible rural threats) and lower levels of urban bias in the developing world. The findings are robust to alternative model specifications, measures, and sensitivity analyses.     

ISIS as an Existential Threat to the Druze: The Struggle for Survival

Faced with an existential threat by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria on one hand, and the repressive regime of Bashar Al-Assad on the other, the Druze community in Syria is faced with a dilemma of what political and military position to take. This study examines a variety of internal and external factors that affect the Druze's political and military choices in Syria, and finds that their best choice is to remain neutral in the conflict. I argue that any political and military choice by the Druze in Syria besides neutrality risks endangering the survival of the entire community. This article examines how internal organizational factors and the international community's divided position play important roles in understanding the Druze's decision to maintain a position of neutrality.     

在生存与失范之间——青年农民工越轨心理的二维路径分析

随着社会主义市场经济体制的逐步确立,城乡交流日益频密,越来越多的农村青年进城务工,这一群体具有较高的社会活动能量,他们在给城市带来巨大发展的同时,也引发了一些社会问题。如青年农民工的越轨问题。本文拟从社会体制结构及群体心理这两个纬度对青年农民工的越轨心理进行路径分析,并希冀能够给城市管理体制的改进有所裨益。     

A Survival Analysis of U.S. Municipalities in Fiscal Distress

This article uses survival analysis to investigate fiscal distress in U.S. municipalities. We hypothesize that fiscal distress is positively correlated with revenue concentration and debt usage, and negatively correlated with administrative costs and entity resources. We develop a model that can predict the likelihood of fiscal distress and correctly classify up to 86 percent of the sampled governments. The model enables users to analyze the impact of a change in the risk factors. Fiscal distress can be reduced most effectively by increasing tax revenues as a percent of total revenues or decreasing total debt as a percent of total revenues.     

Female Survival Calculations in Politically Violent Settings: How Political Violence and Terrorism Are Viewed as Pathways to Life

Evolutionary theory's utility for the study of political phenomena, including war and nationalism, has been demonstrated. However, these studies fail to explain substate violence, including terrorism, and rarely evaluate whether cost-benefit analyses differ for males and females. This article seeks to demonstrate that evolutionary theory provides intriguing insights into two phenomena that observers find difficult to understand: political violence, including terrorism and self-sacrifice in the form of suicide attacks, and female political violence.     

也谈苏联解体的一个原因--兼评美国学者科兹的几个论点

苏共及其社会主义失败的一个重要原因,是在苏共内部产生了一个特权阶层.美国学者科兹看到是这个特权阶层搞跨了苏共和苏联,却不懂得它产生的真正原因,而是把它归之于改革,进而得出了反对市场化改革的错误结论.历史已经证明,并将继续证明,社会主义不改革、不正确地进行改革,只能是死路一条.     

热话题与冷思考(二十三)--关于时代发展与政党现代化的一些思考

早在1996年,您就在<政党的危机--国外政党运行机制研究>一书中提出:"政党政治进一步现代化的问题已经提上日程."现在越来越多的人关注"政党现代化"这个问题,但在那时人们对"政党现代化"这个词还相当陌生,所以您的提法应该说十分"前卫".那么,您当时是如何考虑这个问题的呢?     

我国“外来人员第二代”犯罪的预防与治理

随着中国改革开放与现代化政策的实施、城市化进程的不断深入，中国有越来越多的农民进城谋生，由于户籍制度等社会原因，他们下一代的问题日趋突现。根据社会和谐发展的理念，笔者从我国“外来人员第二代”的现实境遇出发，提出了对这个群体犯罪问题的预防与治理对策，以供社会有关部门作为决策参考与借鉴。     

克里姆林宫易帜十年祭

苏联之亡,戈尔巴乔夫及其所代表的那一代苏共领导人有不可回避的重大历史责任,但根源在于其制度基因和历史演变."斯大林模式"不过是斯大林主义的乌托邦,并非社会主义的合适的社会模式;大俄罗斯主义的单一制国家是导致苏联解体的重要原因之一;社会帝国主义、霸权主义、核军备竞赛、国民经济军事化都是导致苏联衰败的原因;极权官僚制度及其必然的腐败最终葬送了党和国家,苏联是"自杀自灭",亡于"脑坏死".