基于退耕还林工程的农户生计能力变化研究

随着生态环境问题的日益突出,国家近年施行了一系列保护环境的类似生态补偿的重大工程。退耕还林工程即是其中之一。基于可持续生计分析框架(SLA),通过实地调研,构建了测度适合贫困山区农户开展退耕还林工程综合能力的指标体系,并通过主成分分析方法(PCA)进行指标赋权,据此比较了武都区退耕还林工程前后,农户综合生计能力指标权重的差异。最后,讨论了造成此种差异的具体原因,为今后在该类区域实施退耕还林工程提供相关政策依据。     

生计资本及社会保障对农民工消费的影响研究——收入的中介作用

目前,提升城市农民工消费水平是扩大内需、提高经济活力的重要途径,是实现中国经济持续稳定健康发展的重要保障。基于2013年全国农民工实地调查数据,通过Stata建立OLS回归模型,对比分析在加入收入中介变量前后生计资本、社会保障对农民工消费水平的影响差异。研究结果表明,生计资本和社会保障是农民工消费水平较低的重要影响因素,且作为中介变量的收入,在人力资本和社会保障对农民工消费影响因素模型中起着中介作用,在社会资本与农民工消费关系中没有起到中介作用。通过加入中介变量使农民工消费影响因素的研究路径更加完善。     

社区自组织的建构对农户生计资本的影响——以贵州省LB村的调查为例

通过对LB村社区自组织建构过程的实地调查与透视,发现社区自组织的建构是社区内、外部力量共同作用的结果,更是农户个体利益诉求不断达成一致的过程.依据DFID可持续生计分析框架,可以看出社区自组织对丰富和拓展农户的社会资本、人力资本、物质资本、金融资本和自然资本具有十分积极的影响,社区自组织建构对于推进农村社区民主治理也具有重要意义.     

失地农民可持续生计问题探讨

城市化与工业化的不断推进,促使一个新群体——失地农民的产生,在城市化的浪潮中,失地农民默默承担着社会变革的成本.从可持续生计的概念和分析框架出发,具体分析了当前失地农民的生计资本,并在此基础上,提出了构建失地农民可持续生计的路径.     

计划生育政策对家庭发展能力的影响及其政策含义

在家庭发展理论和家庭可持续生计理论基础上构建了家庭发展能力理论框架,为研究中国计划生育政策效应提供了一个新的视角。实证研究发现,计划生育政策的实施不仅有效地控制了中国人口增长的速度和规模,而且对中国居民的家庭发展能力也产生了重要影响,它限制了人们的生育选择权利、改变了不同家庭的禀赋构成和策略选择空间。在政策约束、市场主导和家庭资源整合三重力量交互作用下,中国家庭在自身的结构调整和策略重组中得以延续和发展。但是在当前稳定的低生育水平下,计划生育政策导致家庭自我调整能力下降,需要政府给予政策支持以帮助家庭更有效地整合社会资源。计划生育政策的调整可以将开放单独夫妇生育二孩作为过渡,逐渐向城乡二孩晚育政策平稳调整,以增强家庭发展的可持续性。     

人力资本框架下代际收入流动性的影响因素研究

基于代际收入传递的人力资本理论框架,对子代人力资本形成及其转换为收入阶段中代际收入流动性的影响因素进行整理和分析发现:子代受教育程度的提升,家庭和公共教育投资的增加均有利于代际收入的向上流动;然而受教育投资差异及劳动力市场缺陷等因素的影响,不同群体间教育机会、就业机会及教育收益的不平等并不利于中国整体代际收入流动性的改善。为此,应进一步完善公共教育政策,增加对低收入群体的公共教育财政支持,确保人人享有平等的受教育机会;同时不断削弱劳动力市场分割和就业歧视带来的行业壁垒和收入差距,降低父代社会资本对子代就业的影响力,不断推进就业机会和收入分配公平。     

我国粮食主产区农户种粮状况分析——基于13个粮食主产区农户调查的数据

粮食主产区农户的种粮行为体现在劳动力配置、土地配置、粮食产出、粮食收入四个维度。通过对不种地农户、不种粮农户、农户粮食播种面积、农户种植结构、户均粮食产量、粮食单产水平、户均粮食出售价格、粮食收入在家庭经营收入中的比重、粮食收入在家庭总收入中的比重等指标的分析,可以得出如下对策启示:第一,相对于非粮食主产区,13个粮食主产区的农户具有一定的同质性;第二,粮食主产区具有同质性,但差异性更应该得到关注;第三,粮食主产区农户家庭内部出现"工农二元结构"的兼业经营体系,家中青壮年外出务工,其余成员承担农业生产,不放弃土地成为普遍现象,这对粮食安全微观基础影响深远,值得高度重视;第四,农民种粮意愿成为粮食生产激励政策的首要着力点;第五,粮食主产区农户种粮行为有一定的"韧性",特别是在户均粮食播种面积上表现尤为明显;第六,重视各项激励政策在农户层面的落实。     

大都市郊区的农户收入结构探析——以上海浦东S镇为例

收入结构是检验农村居民消费水平和生活质量的重要指标。受城市化、工业化、市场化和全球化的影响,大都市郊区的农户收入结构与城镇家庭的收入结构在整体上呈趋同态势,但在收入绝对值上尚有相当差距。开展对大都市郊区农户收入结构的社会学研究,对于加快统筹城乡发展,着力推进新农村建设,缩小城乡差距,构建和谐的城乡关系,具有重要的理论与实践意义。     

差异化就业的新生代农民工收入影响因素分析——基于全国31省(市)4268个样本的实证研究

本文利用对新生代农民工的4268份调查问卷,采用扩展的Mincer工资方程,分析人口统计因素、人力资本、社会资本对新生代农民工务工收入水平的影响,并首次在大样本的基础上证实就业差异对新生代农民工收入的重要作用。研究结果显示,性别、年龄、健康程度等人口统计变量,是否培训、技术等级、有无证书、目前工作时间等人力资本因素对新生代农民工收入均具有显著影响,但社会资本的影响并不稳定。研究还表明,就业差异性已成为研究新生代农民工收入机理的重要影响因素,所处行业、受雇方式、务工地跨度等就业差异性变量显著影响新生代农民工收入水平。在此基础上,我们提出了相关政策建议。     

大学生精神健康差异形成的途径和机制

利用结构方程模型考察了来自不同社会经济地位家庭的大学生在精神健康上的差异以及家庭社会经济地位对大学生精神健康的影响途径和机制。研究发现,来自于不同社会经济地位家庭的大学生在抑郁水平上具有显著差异,社会资本和自我效能感是其中两个重要的中介因素。这进一步证实了精神健康状况是社会经济因素和心理机制共同作用的结果。预防和干预大学生抑郁不仅要着重于其背后的认知和心理机制,还要把大学生的家庭社会经济地位、社会资本等因素考虑进来。     

Estimation of housing needs amid population growth and change

Abstract

This article proposes a theoretical framework and more accurate methods for projecting the household growth component of estimates of housing needs. These estimates combine empirical evidence with normative assumptions about the quantity of housing expected with population growth. Recent California experience illustrates the theoretical and practical issues involved. Alternative empirical methods are used to model changes in per capita household formation and homeownership rates over time.

The results show great instability between 1960 and 2000 in the linkage between population and housing needs, casting doubt on which linkage to use for future projections. Past changes in housing growth are attributed to changing population composition and occupancy patterns for subgroups. Estimates based on a cohort method are lower than those using constant rates of housing consumption and conform much more closely to recent experience, but it may not be desirable to lock in the deficiencies of the past when projecting needs.     

The Greens in Brussels: Shaping or shaped?

Abstract.  The challenge for contemporary Green parties in government is to demonstrate both that they have not been completely de-radicalised, and that their presence in government can make a difference. Green party involvement in the European Union (EU) adds distinctive elements to this challenge. Does engagement in supranational decision making provide new opportunities for Green parties to exercise influence beyond borders? Or does it simply further exacerbate de-radicalisation tendencies? Focusing on the German and Finnish Green parties, this article explores the 'European dimension' of Green parties' governmental incumbency. Three sets of literature (Europeanisation, party change and EU policy making) are used to derive and test several hypotheses related to the impact of EU involvement on Green parties, and the impact of Green parties on EU policy making. It is argued that EU governmental engagement has accelerated Green party de-radicalisation both organisationally and programmatically, but the dynamics of this process are complex and surprisingly interactive as Greens also attempt to exercise influence over EU policy. The findings are relevant not just for those studying Green parties, but for those exploring wider questions of Europeanisation, party change and EU policy making.     

How husbands and wives vote

This article uses economic theories of voting behavior and household decision making to analyze the role of own and spouse earnings in determining political voting behavior. The main predictions from these models is that earnings is one of the factors that has an impact on political preferences and in households who share resources, voting behavior will be influenced more by the most representative labor income in the family. I investigate empirically the importance of individual vs household income, and find that the importance of individual income on voting behavior is contingent on employment. On average women earn less than their husband and vote according to their husbands income. If the wife is the maximum earner of the household or works fulltime, she votes more according to her own earnings.     

中国农业补贴政策变动趋势及其影响分析

中国农业补贴政策需要根据未来国内需要和世界贸易组织要求适当调整,本文试图通过对中国农业补贴政策的分析,得到对政策变动趋势的判断并分析其经济影响.本研究使用全球贸易一般均衡模型(GTAP)及其全球贸易和投入产出数据库,通过设计黄箱政策补贴和绿箱政策支持总量增减的变化,设定不同政策方案,模拟中国农业补贴政策可能的变化,讨论在黄箱政策补贴受限情形下,绿箱政策支持对黄箱政策补贴的替代作用和可行性,分析补贴增减给中国和世界主要农业生产区域农业生产和农产品贸易造成的影响.研究结果表明,增加中国农业黄箱政策补贴和绿箱政策支持会减少中国整体福利,但会促进农业生产和进出口贸易;当前应当继续稳定实施黄箱政策补贴,并逐步把农业国内支持政策由黄箱过渡到绿箱.对农业补贴政策变动趋势及影响的研究,将为中国政府进行农业补贴相关政策的制定提供参考.     

Policy is what it does: State trading in rural south India

This paper explores why the Indian central government's legal obligation to distribute grain is not matched in practice by a right to claim it on the part of those who need grain most. The public distribution of rice is examined at state and village levels using a framework for policy analysis developed by Schaffer. Laws enacted are compared with the political objectives lying behind such legislation. The process of administration of public resources for state trading betrays the unprogressive management of capital and labour and the subordination of state trading to private mercantile interests. The expansion and diffusion of grain allocation is examined via the experience of access of targeted groups in a time of severe drought. The perverse mobilization of grain in scarcity, and its allocation in times of plenty, are mirrored by the reduction of grain quotas in the months of greatest need, and by their restoration afterwards. The ration system is subordinated to a politically more conspicuous child nutrition scheme. But both are affected by the interests of private grain merchants, by the tactics of bureaucratic coercion, by short-term financial policy and by the use of food as a currency in political transactions between state and central governments. Grain, a symbolically powerful medium of political appeasement, fails to have a socially progressive distributional impact.     

Explaining the content of impact assessment in the United Kingdom: Learning across time,sectors, and departments

While several studies have documented how evidence‐based policy instruments affect public policy, less research has focused on what causes changes over time in the analyses mandated by the instruments, especially in Britain. Thus, we take the analytical content of a pivotal regulatory reform instrument (impact assessment) as a dependent variable, draw on learning as a conceptual framework, and explain the dynamics of learning processes across departments, policy sectors, and time. Empirically, our study draws on a sample of 517 impact assessments produced in Britain (2005–2011). Experience and capacity in different departments matter in learning processes. Guidelines also matter, but moderately so. Departments specialize in their core policy sectors when performing regulatory analysis, but some have greater analytical capacity overall. Peripheral departments invest more in impact assessment than core executive departments. The presence of a regulatory oversight body enhances the learning process. Elections have different effects, depending on the context in which they are contested. These findings contribute to the literature on regulation, policy learning, and policy instruments.     

Is government good for Greens? Comparing the electoral effects of government participation in Western and East-Central Europe

Abstract.  Examining the record of Green parties that have been involved in government at national level, two distinct pictures emerge. While the electoral fortunes of Green parties in East-Central Europe sharply declined after their stint in government, Green parties in Western Europe on the whole have not fared badly, with most experiencing gains in support. This article seeks to address the variety of factors that could account for different Green electoral fortunes. Among the approaches considered are economic voting, environmental issue salience, portfolio allocation, policy impact and strategic voting. While economic and environmental background factors clearly were important in the East-Central European cases, they are less useful in explaining variation between the West European experiences. The ability of Greens to improve their perceived policy competence and the profile of their leading politicians has helped them benefit from a period in office. Most crucially, Greens can benefit from strategic voting where a Green vote comes to represent support for the government as a whole. The main conclusion is that there are two paths to post-incumbency success: either Greens try to remain distant from taking full government responsibility, thus deflecting any electoral costs of incumbency, or they embrace government and the chance of demonstrating their competence fully to survive or fall with the government as a whole.     

The effects of rules on local political decision-making processes: How can rules facilitate participation?

It is often claimed that participation empowers local actors and that an inclusive decision-making process is crucial for rural development. We aim to investigate how formal and informal rules are set in local decision-making processes and how those rules may impact the actual level of participation by local actors. In a comparative case study, the rules-in-use for the planning of community projects in Thailand are examined. For our analysis, we use the Institutional Analysis and Development framework, which allows for more precise analysis of the impact of the rules. Fifty-three villages are served by four selected Tambon Administrative Organisations (TAO) which are either known for success in achieving participation or ranked as problematic in implementing the decentralization and local participation goals of the Thai government. The study is based on 60 semi-structured interviews with TAO staff, a survey of village leaders in 50 villages and a household survey of 104 villagers. We scrutinize seven types of rules and show some particular differences in terms of the impact from the rules-in-use. In the TAOs ranked as less participatory, the attendance rate in the meetings is found to be lower (boundary rule), villagers are informed about a meeting with a shorter notice (information rule) and more villagers mention that elites interfere in the project selection process (aggregation rule). A high level of fuzziness appeared in the position and authority rules. Further, we obtained information on the particular deontic logic, showing generally a high share of de facto may-statements in the implementation of the rules. We conclude that if the policy goal is enhancing participation, rule-setting offers good scope for intervention. From a practical perspective, information on administrative procedures has to be made more accessible and public administrators should receive procedural training.     

The Normative Frameworks of Public Policy

This article suggests some tools for the analysis of social conceptions that shape the policy-making process. It defines the three dimensions of policy frameworks and their links with the related notions of paradigm and myth. It analyses the institutionalization of policy framework building and its impact on power relations within the French policy-making process.     

A comparative insight into the status of the lobbying regulation debate in Estonia

This paper focuses on different approaches towards regulating lobbying. Special attention is paid to policy formulation regarding lobbying regulation in Estonia. The Estonian case study is juxtaposed with the regulatory solutions of lobbying in Scandinavian and post-communist countries. The reason for choosing such a comparative framework is justified by the fact that these two sets of countries have chosen rather dissimilar approaches in interpreting the role of lobbying in society. As Estonia's policy decisions are often determined by both of these two spaces of political culture, the article polemicizes over the question of which path Estonia could take in terms of regulatory framework for lobbying. The analysis concludes with policy recommendations to Estonia as well as with suggestions for further theoretical research directions for understanding better the policy impact of lobbying regulations designed and implemented by post-communist states. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.