Out of Sight,Out of Mind? External Voting and the Political Representation of Portuguese Emigrants

Over recent decades, emigrants have gained expanded voting rights on a global scale. Despite the normative debates about this issue, there are few empirical studies on why states decide to implement external voting and how electoral systems perform. This article seeks to fill this gap by looking at the Portuguese case. Our study suggests that a combination of political and socio-economic factors explains the implementation of external voting. On the other hand, the interests of political parties and the low level of civil society engagement are key to determining the failure of electoral reforms and the attempts to overcome the shortcomings of external voting.     

Correct Voting in Direct Legislation

Correct voting in elections has been extensively analysed in the recent past. However, thus far, correct voting in direct legislation has hardly been investigated. This is all the more surprising since direct legislation is a more demanding form of democracy and, thus, to vote one's true preferences in direct legislation represents a greater challenge than picking the “right” party or the “right” candidate at elections. Moreover, the few researches on the correctness of individual referendum votes used a measurement method that we think has some methodological shortfalls. Instead, we want to propose another better‐suited method of measuring correct voting in direct legislation settings. This method makes use of voters' stances on the issue at stake. Besides, we will scrutinize the share of correct voting as well as its determinants on the Swiss popular vote of November 2009, which included three rather different propositions. The study shows that a majority of Swiss voters are indeed able to vote their true preferences. The ability to vote correctly depends primarily on the individual voter's project‐specific knowledge, but also, under certain circumstances, on the use of heuristics.     

Values and Votes: The Indirect Effect of Personal Values on Voting Behavior

Recent research from social psychology suggests that personal values predict political behavior, such as vote choice. In contrast to previous studies, it is hypothesized in this article that personal values influence voting behavior only indirectly through political value orientation. Drawing on the personal value concept of Shalom Schwartz, structural equation models based on Swiss electoral data (SELECTS 2007) are applied to test the hypothesis of indirect effects. The empirical analysis shows that the effects of personal values are indeed mediated by political values, but that their indirect impact on vote choice remains substantial. It is argued on a theoretical level that personal values need first to be translated (or transformed) into political values to become effective on voting behavior.     

“Voluntary PR Voting” in the Election of Swiss Regional Governments

This paper analyses citizens' voting behaviour in the April 2011 elections of the regional governments in the cantons of Zurich and Lucerne. These elections were conducted with a majoritarian electoral system in a multi‐member district. In both cantons, the number of candidates in competition is relatively limited due to “voluntary PR”, that is, a coordination effort among parties that aims to achieve a proportional distribution of government seats. If citizens cast all of their votes, they must support candidates from various ideological camps. Alternatively, they can limit the number of votes used to cast a more concentrated vote. This paper examines what factors lead citizens to cast an ideologically concentrated or dispersed vote. The results show that the degree of ideological concentration of citizens' votes is related to partisan preferences, strategic considerations, political knowledge, and the level of satisfaction with the government performance.     

Was treibt die Stimmbürger an die Urne? Eine empirische Untersuchung der Abstimmungsbeteiligung in der Schweiz, 1981‐1999

Zunächst werden die theoretischen Überlegungen kurz dargelegt, die zur Entscheidungs‐ bzw. zur Mobilisierungshypothese führen. Zudem wird die Theorie des ‘expressiven Wählens’ vorgestellt, und es wird auf zwei weitere Hypothesen über Bestimmungsgründe der Stimmbeteiligung eingegangen. Danach wird der Schätzansatz beschrieben, bevor wir uns mit den empirischen Ergebnissen beschäftigen. Sie sprechen nicht nur sehr stark für die Mobilisierungs‐ und gegen die Entscheidungshypothese, sondern zumindest bei den fakultativen Referenden spielen auch die erwarteten (bzw. befürchteten) finanziellen Auswirkungen eine entscheidende Rolle. Allerdings sind sie nur bedingt mit der Theorie des expressiven Wählens vereinbar.     

盟友还是对手?俄罗斯与伊朗、土耳其在叙利亚问题上的关切与挑战

在叙利亚问题上,俄罗斯被视为最关键的一方。俄罗斯在2015年9月直接出兵叙利亚,帮助叙利亚政府收复大片土地,并与伊朗和土耳其一起,通过阿斯塔纳和平进程、索契和平进程,逐渐稳定了叙利亚的国内局势。此外,俄罗斯还积极促成叙利亚宪法委员会的成立,推动叙利亚开启战后政治重建进程。随着叙利亚国内局势逐渐缓和,俄罗斯在叙利亚问题上面临着新的挑战。一方面,俄罗斯需要面对伊朗和土耳其在叙利亚的关切。俄、伊、土三国在叙利亚问题上分歧犹存,很可能会导致叙利亚局势再度紧张。另一方面,俄罗斯需要处理好叙利亚一些敏感的政治和安全事项,维系叙利亚国内战局稳定,推动叙利亚政治重建进程实现突破。     

Turkish Popular Presidential Elections: Deepening Legitimacy Issues and Looming Regime Change

This paper examines the politics of presidential elections in Turkey with particular reference to the 10 August 2014 presidential elections. It starts by scrutinising the change in the presidential election system from parliamentary to direct popular vote. It then probes the implementation of the new election rules, candidate selection, and the conduct of the campaign, followed by analysis of the election results and their influence on the Turkish record of democratisation. The paper concludes that the move to a partisan president elected by popular vote entails democratic dangers if the new incumbent does not abide by his or her constitutional role and attempts to intervene in government policy.     

Local Elections and the Turkish Voter: Looking for the Determinants of Party Choice

On 30 March 2014 Turkish voters elected their local (city) councillors. Their party preferences seem to indicate considerable correspondence with the national vote choices. So, do voters' choices in local elections differ from voters' party preferences at the national legislative elections? Based on previous research findings on Turkish voting behaviour, a list of hypotheses was compiled and tested, using binary logistic regression analyses and survey data collected immediately prior to the 2009 and 2014 local elections. The main findings are that the party lists are supported at the ballot boxes on the basis of the voters' party identification, ideological positions, and economic (dis)satisfaction, whether in national or local elections.     

The Electoral Cycle and Multi-Level Voting in Germany

The aim of this contribution is to analyse whether Land elections may (have) become uncoupled from the federal electoral process, and, if they have, to explore the implications for party competition in Germany. Initially, an overview is presented of the relevant theoretical models that can help unpack the relationship between different electoral arenas. Secondly, how these ideas have been applied to national and sub-national electoral competition in Germany is outlined, before an examination of the 'fit' of the data in both the pre- and post-unification periods. We conclude with reflections on two key features that have regularly surfaced in Gordon Smith's writings: party system change and political stability.