Slipping through the net: everyday agency of youth and the politics of amnesty in Nigeria’s Niger Delta (2009–2015)

Using the 2009 Amnesty in Nigeria’s Niger Delta, this paper explores youth manipulation of neopatrimonial systems of coercion and cooptation. It makes three arguments. First, the violence preceding the amnesty declaration was as much a youth-led insurgency to protest social and environmental justice issues as it was a crisis within Nigeria’s neopatrimonial system. Second, the amnesty programme was designed to re-constitute the collapsed neopatrimonial system, linking youth to patrons both within the Delta and in the broader Nigerian society. Finally, the paper argues that a counter hegemonic process through which youth express their agency by manipulating the amnesty in innovative ways is going on simultaneously. These arguments indicate a need to reconsider familiar tropes of ethnicity, culture and institutional deficits in the way we think about governance projects in post-colonial Africa and the tendency to exaggerate the relevance of the ‘bigman’.     

The Resurgence of the Niger Delta Militants and the Survival of the Nigerian State

The 2016 resumption of hostilities in the oil-rich Niger Delta region that is the mainstay of Nigeria’s economy, in a dwindling international oil price, has become a subject of controversy. This analysis, which is based on empirical evidence from primary and secondary sources, shows a group of militants—the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA), selective anti-corruption crusade, the clamp down on federal government structure in the Niger Delta, amnesty time limit to Niger Delta ex-militants, self–determination and the attempt to single out former President Goodluck Jonathan from Niger Delta, among other former presidents for prosecution, as the core drivers of insecurity in the oil-rich region. It is suggested that the Nigerian government should embrace the power of dialogue that has brought relative peace in the Niger Delta region from 2009 to 2015, as a veritable tool to stop the ongoing hostilities.     

Peace and security concerns in the Niger Delta: a persisting struggle for autonomy and self-determination

This article argues that neither the amnesty granted the militants nor the election of Goodluck Jonathan as President of Nigeria will be sufficient to resolve the conflict in the Niger Delta as the crisis in the Niger Delta is an offshoot of some of the contradictions in the Nigerian federal structure, particularly the regional and power imbalance in the Constitution of 1960. Therefore, no matter how conceived, the Niger Delta crisis remains more fundamentally constitutional and political than socio-economic or environmental. Accordingly, what the paper attempts to address is the deliberate attempt by the Nigerian state to diminish the constitutional and political aspects of the crisis, while it creates the impression that the root of the problem of the Niger Delta is neglect and inequitable distribution of national resources by the federal government. The paper brings to the fore the constitutional and the political aspects which have underpinned the Niger Delta crisis since the 1950s and 1960s and concludes that any resolution of the crisis short of those imperatives will not endure.     

Borders that continue to bother us: the politics of cross-border security cooperation in Africa’s Lake Chad Basin

Until 2014, security responses to the Boko Haram insurgency were largely domestic and military. However, the increasing expansion of Boko Haram attacks in the Lake Chad Basin (LCB), compounded by the consequent humanitarian crisis, compelled a joint security action. This came in the form of the rejuvenated Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), comprising forces from the LCB member states (Nigeria, Cameroon, Niger, and Chad) and Benin. My goal in this paper is to interrogate the cross-border dynamics and ramifications of the Boko Haram insurgency, and the nature of security responses to it. The analysis extends to the politics of cross-border security cooperation against Boko Haram in the LCB, as well as the impact of the MNJTF on Boko Haram’s evolving tactics. Along the way, the paper identifies key challenges to the effective operationalisation of the MNJTF.     

Oil pollution and water conflicts in the riverine communities in Nigeria’s Niger Delta region: challenges for and elements of problem-solving strategies

ABSTRACT

In Nigeria’s Niger Delta, oil pollution has significantly harmed the natural environment on which the local people in the Niger Delta depend for their livelihood and sustenance. The direct consequence of oil pollution is that it has led to multidimensional and protracted conflicts in oil-bearing communities. Drawing on fieldwork data, this article examines the ways in which oil pollution harms water resources and fuels conflicts in the local communities. It explores the socio-economic dynamics of the conflicts and insecurity, and how they are aggravated by the ineffectiveness of the measures adopted by the state to manage the conflicts. It argues that the role of local actors in the ecological dislocation have been downplayed and not factored into the measures devised to tackle the intractable conflicts. This article demonstrates how the network of interactions among localised, national and globalised actors aggravate environmental pollution and the complex conflicts in local communities.     

Revolutionary Movements in Latin America after the Cold War: The Case of the Ejército del Pueblo Paraguayo

This article addresses the debate concerning the reasons for the emergence of revolutionary movements in Latin America in the post‐Cold War period. It uses the example of the Ejército del Pueblo Paraguayo (EPP, Paraguayan People's Army) to question the hypothesis by McClintock that, whereas political factors were the principal cause of such movements during the Cold War, economic factors have dominated since then. After reviewing the structural context in which the EPP emerged, as well as its history, strategy and ideology, the article offers a contemporary understanding of the insurgency, examines its relevance to the debate about the prospects for revolution in post‐Cold War Latin America and proposes a reformulation of McClintock's hypothesis.     

Polio vaccines--"no thank you!" barriers to polio eradication in Northern Nigeria

This article is an analysis of the boycott of the polio vaccinationcampaign in northern Nigeria, which has indefinitely stalledglobal polio eradication targets. The polio immunization drivewas brought to a standstill in July 2003 as religious and politicalleaders in northern Nigeria responded to fears that the vaccineswere deliberately contaminated with anti-fertility agents andthe HIV virus. The article explores the political and culturalangles of this controversy, revealing deeper dimensions thathave contributed to the rejection of polio vaccines in northernNigeria. In doing so, it argues that there is an underlyinglogic to public anxieties often dismissed as ‘anti-vaccinationrumours’. Although the polio vaccine boycott has provedcostly in both economic and human terms, it has opened importantlines of communication at global and national levels, potentiallydeepening dialogue, participation and sensitivity necessaryfor global health campaigns. Although immunization comes withcountless benefits, it is a complex and difficult health strategyto enforce. Decisions on broader health as well as immunizationgoals are often made at a global level to be incorporated andadapted into national health plans and budgets. Evidently forimmunization campaigns, the journey from the global to the localis a vulnerable and unpredictable one.     

"More In Than Out": Switzerland's Association With Schengen/Dublin Cooperation

From the point of view of modes of governance and constellations of interdependence, EU research policy offers ideal conditions for the flexible inclusion of non‐member states: it is based on transgovernmental coordination through policy networks rather than supranational legislation, it follows scientific rather than political imperatives, and cooperation is in the interest of both the EU and of Switzerland. This article analyses the degree to which these factors have allowed for Switzerland's inclusion into the regulatory and organisational aspects of EU research policy, and highlights the limits of such flexible sectoral integration.     

Turkey's Military Victory over the PKK and Its Failure to End the PKK Insurgency

This article explores the major reasons why Turkey could not end the PKK insurgency despite its military defeat in the late 1990s. It argues that Turkish governments have failed to sufficiently address two key aspects of their low-intensity conflict with the PKK, namely the fact that the PKK is not just a group of armed militants, but rather a complex insurgent organization and that it appeals to a large number of Kurds. Turkey's inability to definitively quell the PKK insurgency raises significant questions regarding the justification and effectiveness of the use of military force in dealing with insurgencies.     

Nationalism and modernism in the East Turkestan Republic, 1933–34

This study explains the intellectual history and ideology of the Turkic insurgency and the East Turkestan Republic in Kashgar in 1933–34. Texts in periodicals from the period suggest that the insurgency was defined by its intellectual elites more as a nationalist enterprise than as a religious one. The insurgency's ideologists established important national attributes of the East Turkestani nation, particularly its national name, homeland, symbology, and history, and they also articulated East Turkestani national interests, particularly political independence, representative government, and modernization. Regardless of the arguably low degree of social penetration of the ideas of the elites among common society and the small extent to which policy was actually implemented, the intertwining of East Turkestani national identity and interests with political self-government and modernization was an ideological concept that had a profound impact on all subsequent administrations in Xinjiang.     

Despite Insurgency: Reducing Military Prerogatives in Colombia and Peru

Colombia and Peru made significant progress in reducing the institutional prerogatives of their respective militaries in the 1990s and 2000s while reforming their economies in a neoliberal direction. They accomplished this despite internal armed threats to state authority and stability. The end of the Cold War, U.S. promotion of "market democracies," and the international centrality of free markets and formal democratic governance coincided with the rise to power in Peru and Colombia of "neoliberal policy coalitions." The internal insurgency mitigated the emergence of antiglobalization or antidemocratic reform factions in the military and civil society. The armed forces unified behind their counterinsurgency mission, and opposition in civil society was weakened, creating greater space for neoliberal elites to reform their economies and reduce military prerogatives.     

Understanding the insurgency in Balochistan

The management and incorporation of ethnic identities in Pakistan has historically been far more problematic in Balochistan than other provinces and regions. With the killing in 2006 of Akbar Bugti, a leading political figure who was the head of the Bugti tribe and served as federal minister, chief minister and Governor of Balochistan, the province became politically polarised and has descended into a new cycle of bombings, abductions and murders. The rebellion has resulted in a major security operation pitting the security forces against the Baloch people, attacks against Punjabi settlers and sectarian violence against Hazara Shias that collectively threaten to derail major development projects and increase instability in Pakistan as a whole at a critical juncture. This article examines the insurgency in Balochistan and evaluates various perspectives that have been used to explain the present crisis: external intervention, resistance to social change, resource driven conflict theory, transnationalism and diaspora, and failure to manage difference. After examining the evidence it concludes by arguing that the primary cause for the insurgency in Pakistan is due to poor management of difference.     

The three colors of Novorossiya,or the Russian nationalist mythmaking of the Ukrainian crisis

While the annexation of Crimea boosted Putin's popularity at home, the Donbas insurgency shattered the domestic ideological status quo. The Kremlin's position appeared somehow hesitant, fostering the resentment of Russian nationalist circles that were hoping for a second annexation. In this article, I explore the term Novorossiya as a live mythmaking process orchestrated by different Russian nationalist circles to justify the Donbas insurgency. The powerful pull of Novorossiya rests on its dual meaning in announcing the birth of a New Russia geographically and metaphorically. It is both a promised land to be added to Russia and an anticipation of Russia's own transformation. As such, Novorossiya provides for an exceptional convergence of three underlying ideological paradigms – “red” (Soviet), “white” (Orthodox), and “brown” (Fascist). The Novorossiya storyline validates a new kind of geopolitical adventurism and blurs the boundaries, both territorial and imaginary, of the Russian state.     

Insecure peace: understanding citizen and local government relations in a Maoist-affected region in India

This paper examines emerging citizen and local government relations in a village in the Junglemahal region of the state of West Bengal, once a major bastion of the Maoist insurgency in India. Since 2014, Junglemahal has not experienced a single Maoist-related incident. This has been widely attributed to the West Bengal government’s “model” handling of the insurgency, which rests on the rapid mobilization of public services through the non-elected arms of local governments, bypassing elected officials. How have Junglemahal’s residents experienced this particular form of post-conflict governance? Drawing on the culture-centered approach that ethnographically observes the processes of identifying development problems and developing community-grounded solutions to these problems, our findings indicate that the hyper-developmental state was paradoxically experienced by our respondents as a very distant entity. A recurrent theme in our interviews is the absence of a locally embedded party leadership that could be approached regarding issues of distributive justice. We argue that this desire for party mediation in public service delivery is an expression of a powerful social norm that has survived the conflict and ought to be integrated into post-conflict governance structures if the current peace is to endure.     

美国“反叛乱”理论的发展及其困境

20世纪中期以后,随着第三世界民族解放运动的勃兴和美国加大在第三世界的政治、军事干涉力度,美国政府日益关注和重视"反叛乱"理论与实践。美国"反叛乱"理论的形成与发展大体经历了三大阶段:肯尼迪时期、里根时期和小布什-奥巴马时期。其中肯尼迪时期强调对所谓"反叛乱"政府的扶持,与苏联争夺对第三世界的政治、军事控制;里根时期的"叛乱"和"反叛乱"被纳入"低强度冲突"理论的框架;小布什时期则是为了应对所谓的伊斯兰圣战主义"全球叛乱"。然而"反叛乱"理论作为美国海外干涉的一种理念依据,总是面临着对外干涉本身所固有的政治、军事和道义困境。     

Can Politicians Control Bureaucrats? Applying Theories of Political Control to Argentina's Democracy

In the United States, an important literature shows that legislators use interest groups, courts, and budgets to assert political control over bureaucrats. Similar theories can be applied to study the scores of new democracies that have emerged in recent decades. In Argentina, politicians in the first administration of Carlos Menem (1989-95) rewrote administrative procedures and relied on both "police patrol" and "fire alarm" oversight to realign the behavior of tax bureaucrats in conformance with their own policy preferences. Whereas U.S. legislators generally prefer complex administrative procedures, different electoral incentives led their Argentine counterparts to support reforms that significantly streamlined those procedures. This finding challenges theories that attribute legislators' bureaucratic preferences to the separation or fusion of powers between the executive and legislative branches.     

The crisis in Somalia: Tragedy in five acts

Somalia's catastrophic humanitarian crisis of 2007, in whichup to 300,000 Mogadishu residents were displaced in fightingpitting Ethiopian and Transitional Federal Government (TFG)forces against a complex insurgency of clan and Islamist opposition,was the culmination of a series of political miscalculationsand misjudgements on the part of Somali and external actorssince 2004. They resulted in a cascading sequence of politicalcrises which plunged Somalia into increasingly intractable conflicts.This ‘tragedy in five acts’ includes the flawedcreation of the TFG in late 2004, which emerged as a narrowcoalition rather than a government of national unity; the failureof a promising civic movement in Mogadishu in summer of 2005to challenge the power base of warlords and Islamists in thecapital; the disastrous decision by the US government to encouragean alliance between its local counter-terrorism partners inMogadishu, producing a war which led to the victory of the Councilof Islamic Courts (CIC) in June 2006; the radicalization ofthe CIC over the course of 2006, which guaranteed a war withEthiopia; and the Ethiopian offensive against the CIC in late2006, leading to its occupation of the capital, a complex insurgencyagainst Ethiopian forces and armed violence which produced whatthe UN described as a ‘humanitarian catastrophe’.In virtually every instance, key actors took decisions thatproduced unintended outcomes which harmed rather than advancedtheir interests, and at a cost in human lives and destructionof property that continues to mount.     

Inside the Karen Insurgency: Explaining Conflict and Conciliation in Myanmar’s Changing Borderlands

Since 2012 Myanmar’s oldest ethnic rebel group, the Karen National Union (KNU), has sought for considerable rapprochement with the government. To many, this seemed to be the direct outcome of wider political transition in Myanmar. This article proposes an alternative explanation. Based on extensive field research and an emerging literature on armed groups, it demonstrates that the group’s rapprochement with the government was driven by leadership struggles between two rival factions within the KNU. At the core of this contestation are shifting internal power relations, which resulted from military pressures and geopolitical transformations in the Myanmar-Thai borderlands. These findings point to significant shortcomings of Myanmar’s peace process. They also contribute to the field of Conflict and Security Studies with much needed primary source data on the internal politics of insurgency, which shows how dynamics of civil war are driven by an interplay between forces on different levels of analysis.     

Malcolm Caldwell

This paper is an analysis of the role played by the 1952 language movement (bhasha andolan) in East Bengal in the development of a Bengali nationalist discourse. The language movement forged a conscious link between various subaltern social groups, enabling them to transcend existing barriers and transform them into formidable political actors. Using the concept of counter hegemonic striving, this paper argues that the language movement was a definitive outcome of years of counter hegemonic activities of the Bengali subalterns.

This process of counter hegemony was especially evident in the peasant insurgency in rural areas and in the building of an alternative political organization. The articulation of political power through these two processes stands in sharp contrast to the efforts of the Muslim League, both ideologically and politically. It negated the idea of the very existence of the Pakistan state, and facilitated new ways of articulating the concept of Bengali nationalism. Although the unit forged by the language movement was short-lived it, nonetheless, underscored the existence of an indigenous political culture to the subalterns and paved the way for the historic emergence of a separate nationstate in 1971 — Bangladesh.     

From Rebels to Rulers: The Challenges of Transition for Non-state Armed Groups in Mindanao and Myanmar

This article presents a critical comparison of the ongoing peace processes in the southern Philippines and Myanmar (Burma). It does so by examining two key armed groups: the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) on Mindanao, and the Karen National Union (KNU) in Myanmar. We identify common elements that help to explain the relative – albeit incomplete – success of these two groups in navigating their respective peace processes. The MILF and KNU are ethnonationalist armed groups struggling for self-determination against states that are experienced by ethnic minority communities as culturally alien, and economically and politically dominant. Both conflict actors are characterized by complex combinations of “greed” and “grievance” factors but nevertheless enjoy significant (albeit contested) political legitimacy among the communities they seek to represent. We explore the complex relationships between armed ethnic groups, conflict-affected communities, and civil society actors. We argue that engagement with civil society is a key element of success in the Mindanao peace process, which could be replicated in Myanmar. We examine the roles and changing nature of the state in the Philippines and Myanmar, and contrast the degrees of international involvement, as key variables in these peace processes. We observe that negotiations of comprehensive peace settlements are threatened by “the tyranny of elections” in Myanmar (2015) and the Philippines (2016), and observe the importance of including national parliaments in peace processes in a timely manner. The peace process between Manila and the MILF represents a rare example of a Muslim minority pursuing its political objectives through structured dialogue. The article focuses on the challenges faced by armed groups moving from insurgency to reinvent themselves as credible political actors and governance authorities. Our analysis draws on peace-building literature, specifically the phenomenon of “rebel governance.”