Dynamic risk and protective factors

ABSTRACT

This paper reviews the literature regarding the identification and measurement of risk factors considered imminent precipitants of subsequent criminal conduct (i.e. dynamic risk factors). This paper also frames these risk factors against the so-called protective factors that are presumed to mitigate risk. Commonality among recent dynamic risk and protective measures reflects general agreement regarding viable candidate variables. Empirical studies suggest such factors yield incremental predictive validity and should inform case-formulaic understanding of criminal conduct and pathways to desistance, although this is not common practice. As well, definitional and measurement considerations are not well advanced and speak to the need for further conceptual clarity.     

Preventing youth suicide: issues for law enforcement personnel

Suicide is a leading cause of death for adolescents. A number of problem behaviors associated with youth suicide fall into the purview of law enforcement personnel, and they are therefore in a position to detect risk and prevent suicidal behaviors. Eight hundred one youth identified as having school difficulty, a group at increased risk for both suicide and legal problems, participated in a paper and pencil survey followed by an interview focusing on suicide risk and protective factors. Linear regression was used to examine the ability of factors within each risk and protective factor dimension to predict current suicide risk. The study goal was to determine the most relevant factors influencing suicide risk in each domain examined. Findings are discussed in terms of implications for assessment and policy for law enforcement personnel.     

Forensic occupational therapy to reduce risk of reoffending: a survey of practice in the United Kingdom

Forensic services are required to reduce an individual’s risk of reoffending. Despite being integral to forensic mental health services, the contribution of forensic occupational therapy to achieving this aim is unclear. This study describes current forensic occupational therapy practice to reduce reoffending risk in the United Kingdom. Responses to a cross-sectional survey consisting of multiple choice and free-text questions were analysed using frequency counts and percentages, and thematic analysis respectively. Of the 58 participants, 83% actively addressed reoffending risk. Participants informed practice with occupation-focused theories, models and assessment tools. Five themes described forensic occupational therapy to reduce reoffending risk: an occupational perspective of risk assessment and formulation; volitional realignment; increasing protective factors; community integration; and enhancing understanding of forensic occupational therapy. Forensic occupational therapists perceive their practice to contribute to reducing reoffending risk, but are yet to establish routine outcome measurement in this area. Implications for practice and future research are discussed.     

Review of the Literature on Risk and Protective Factors of Offending Among Native Americans

Abstract

The social and economic conditions faced by much of the Native American population, as well as the history and treatment of Native Americans in our society, create many risk factors for criminal offending. At the same time, however, the cultures, traditions, and spiritualities of Native American tribes likely provide unique protective factors against offending in light of these risks. While these issues, especially drug and alcohol abuse, have received considerable attention by a handful of scholars, the level of research on risk and protective factors of offending have not, although recent research and funding decisions are beginning to make this topic a priority. This paper provides a brief review of the literature on risk and protective factors among Native Americans, highlighting some of the major factors likely to receive the most research attention over the next several years.     

Measurement Properties of the Communities That Care<Superscript>®</Superscript> Youth Survey Across Demographic Groups

Prevention science has produced information about risk and protective factors that predict adolescent drug use and related problem behaviors. This paper investigates the Communities That Care Youth Survey that measures multiple risk and protective factors. Using a sample of 172,628 students who participated in surveys administered in seven states in 1998, analyses were conducted to test the factor structure of these risk and protective factors and to test the equivalence of the factor models across five racial/ethnic groups (African Americans, Asians or Pacific Islanders, Caucasians, Hispanic Americans, and Native Americans), four grade levels (6th, 8th, 10th, and 12th) and both gender groups. Results support the construct validity of the surveys risk and protective factor scales and indicate that the measures are equally reliable across males and females and five racial/ethnic groups. Implications of these findings for science-based prevention planning are discussed.     

Assessing dynamic risk and protective factors in the community: examining the validity of the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry

Recently, there has been a growing interest in advancing the state of offender risk assessment: particularly through the development of risk instruments to assist with parole management and the incorporation of protective factors specific to re-entry. The current study's aim was to validate a measure of stable and acute dynamic risk factors and protective factors used by probation officers managing offenders in the community: the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-Entry (DRAOR). Empirical examination of the structure of DRAOR scores soon after release from prison suggested four components, rather than the theoretically proposed three-subscale structure. Both the original three subscales and the four new subscales showed good convergent validity with other dynamic risk instruments, and reliably predicted new convictions; however, only the new stable component added significant incremental predictive power over existing static and dynamic risk instruments. These findings provide initial support for the validity of the DRAOR; suggestions for future research are discussed.     

Invariance of Measures of Prevention Program Effectiveness: A Replication

Recent literature has suggested that measures of risk and protective factorsfor delinquency and substance use are not equally reliable or valid acrossgender and ethnic groups and has recommended differentiated programming andculturally specific evaluation methods. Three data sets containing up tofive ethnic groups were used to determine the degree to which risk andprotective factors are equally reliable and valid predictors of drug use anddelinquency across gender and ethnic groups. Congeneric measurement modelsand structural equation models were evaluated to determine if the factorstructures for these measures and their covariances with measures of druguse and delinquency were equivalent across gender and ethnic groups. Half ofthe risk and protective factors included in this analysis were found to beequally reliable across gender and ethnic groups. When controlling forreliability differences, all of the risk and protective factors were foundto predict both drug use and delinquncy for all gender and ethnic groups. Interms of the magnitude of these associations, no substantive differenceswere found in the validity of risk and protective factors for drug use anddelinquency. Differences in the validity of risk and protective factors weremore prevalent for delinquency than for drug use. However, all differenceswere substantively trivial. We conclude that measures of prevention programeffectiveness are invariant across gender and ethnic groups.     

Biological protective factors for antisocial and criminal behavior

Purpose

Although risk factors are typically the focus of criminological research, increasingly researchers are interested in identifying protective factors that reduce the probability of antisocial behavior, either in the presence or absence of risk factors. Biosocial researchers are in an opportune position to research factors that protect against the development of antisocial behavior in high-risk individuals, given biosocial criminology’s focus on the interaction between biological and social factors. The purpose of this article is to review neuropsychological and psychophysiology research into protective factors.

Results

Of the neuropsychological factors, high IQ has the best-replicated protective effects, though executive functioning is also a promising candidate as a protective factor. High resting heart rate, as well as enhanced autonomic fear conditioning and attentional processing may also have protective effects.

Conclusions

Though research into biological protective factors is currently limited, there is promising evidence that biological factors could help us to better understand why some individuals do not become antisocial or criminal in the presence of high social risk. Neuropsychological and psychophysiological measures are relatively easier and less costly to operationalize than other biological measures, making them promising candidates for criminological researchers who would like to incorporate biological measures into their research designs.     

Risk Factors Associated with the Chronicity of High Potential for Child Abuse and Neglect

The present 4-year follow-up study involves 56 mothers who were evaluated by social agencies as being abusive and neglectful or at high risk for child abuse and neglect. The aim of the study is to analyze the relationship between psychosocial risk factors (relating to the history and current situation of the mothers) that were present at the time the families were initially recruited and the fact that some of the mothers continue to show a high potential for child abuse and neglect (chronic abuse and neglect), whereas others were able to overcome the problem (transitory abuse and neglect). Results indicate that the following variables are particularly associated with situations involving chronic problems of abuse and neglect: initial level of severity of potential for abuse and neglect; dual-parent status; a large number of children at the time of intervention (3.13 times more risk of chronicity for large families); the fact that as a child the mother herself had been placed in a foster home (3.7 times more risk); that she had been sexually abused (3.5 times more risk); and that as an adolescent she had run away from home (3.02 times more risk). Our results indicate that mothers who have a combination of more than eight risk factors are four times more likely to be in the chronic group.     

Posttraumatic Stress Disorder: Protective and Risk Factors in 18 Survivors of a Plane Crash

The aim of this study is to identify protective and risk factors related to the development of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) on a sample of survivors from a single plane crash. Eighteen survivors were examined 6 months following the event. The subjects all underwent psychiatric interviews, Clinician‐Administered PTSD Scale structured interviews, personality and cognitive tests. Only 38.9% of them presented with all of the symptoms of PTSD; 22.2% showed no symptoms for PTSD; remaining survivors exhibited emotional/affective symptoms related to the event. In addition to the severity of the traumatic event itself, other risk factors identified were the loss of a relative, the manifestation of depressive symptoms, and the severity of physical injuries sustained. Low levels of hostility and high levels of self‐efficacy represented protective factors against developing PTSD.     

Forecasting Recidivism in Mentally Ill Offenders Released from Prison

Little research has focused on assessing the risk of mentally ill offenders (MIOs) released from state prisons. Here we report findings for 333 mentally ill offenders released from Washington State prisons. Logistic regression identified sets of variables that forecasted felony and violent reconviction as accurately as state-of-the-art risk assessment instruments. Sums of simple recoded versions of these variables predicted reoffense as well as complex logistic regression equations. Five of these 9 variables were found to be relative protective factors. Findings are discussed in terms of the value of stock correctional variables in forecasting risk, the need to base actuarial risk assessments on local data, the importance of protective factors in assessing MIO risk, and the need for dynamic, situational, and clinical variables that can further sharpen predictive accuracy of emergent risk in the community.     

Integrating DSM-IV Factors to Predict Violence in High-Risk Psychiatric Patients

Abstract:  This study incorporated Axis-II and Axis-IV factors in DSM-IV to test the relationship between predicted risk for violence assessed in the psychiatric emergency room and actual violence during hospitalization. Psychiatric nurses lack an objective instrument to use during the acute psychiatric assessment. The retrospective study comprised consecutive psychiatric admissions ( n  = 161) in one tertiary veterans' hospital. Statistical testing for the predictive power of risk factors, relationships between variables, and violent events included nonparametric tests, factor analysis, and logistic regression. Of the 32 patients who committed violence during hospitalization, 12 had committed violence in the psychiatric emergency room. Statistical significance was shown for violent incidents and dementia, court-ordered admission, mood disorder, and for three or more risk factors. The 13-item Risk of Violence Assessment (ROVA) scale suggests validity and sensitivity for rating DSM-IV factors and psychosocial stressors to predict risk for violence during hospitalization. Replication studies are recommended to strengthen validity of the ROVA scale.     

Violent disorder in Ciudad Juarez: a spatial analysis of homicide

This article considers the extent to which specific demographic and socioeconomic factors correlate with homicidal violence in the context of Mexico’s “war” on organized crime. We draw on Ciudad Juarez as a case study and social disorganization theory as an organizing framework. Social disorganization is expected to generate higher levels of homicidal violence. And while the evidence reveals several social disorganization factors associated with homicidal violence in Ciudad Juarez, not all relationships appear as predicted by the theory. Drawing on public census and crime data, our statistical assessment detects six significant variables (or risk factors) positively associated with homicidal violence in Ciudad Juarez between 2009 and 2010. Likewise, the assessment finds another six specific variables (or protective factors) that are negatively associated with above average homicide in the city between 2009 and 2010. The featured data and level of analysis do not conclusively demonstrate causation, nor was this the intent. Rather, we propose a baseline model for testing spatial-temporal dynamics of organized violence in multiple settings.     

“Because you’ve got faith it doesn’t mean that you’ve got wings on your back”: a qualitative analysis of the accounts of Christian prisoners serving time for a sexual offence

Religious beliefs have been variously promulgated as both protective and risk factors for sexual reoffending. Moreover, therapists working with religious prisoners struggle with unravelling cognitive distortions embedded within religious views, with concerns about accusations of prejudice salient in their mindset. This paper presents a novel contribution to research by combining the qualitative analysis of the accounts offered by individuals (n?=?12) convicted of sexual offences who describe themselves as Christians. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews and analysed using Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis. This paper focuses on two superordinate themes: (i) The God Effect and (ii) The Shadow Side of Religion. Implications of this research are discussed with reference to the assessment of dynamic risk and protective factors with religious individuals who have been convicted of a sexual offence.     

Decisions to offend in men who sexually abuse their daughters

Abstract

A group of nine intrafamilial child molesters of daughters and stepdaughters from Canada and the United Kingdom were interviewed about their analysis of opportunities to sexually offend. Questions focused on the evaluation of immediate and life circumstances surrounding the offence, including how the offender defined, created and responded to opportunities for offending. An equally important goal was identifying strengths in resisting opportunities and coping with spoiled attempts. The interviews were transcribed and subjected to grounded theory analysis. Consistent with the rational choice theory of criminal behaviour the majority of offenders identified information and decision-making processes used to evaluate opportunities for offending. Themes related to offender and victim characteristics, as well as situational factors, are identified and discussed with respect to risk and protective factors. Offenders described positive relationships, greater social/community connectedness and successful employment as present in their lives when not offending. These elements are consistent with positive approaches to sexual offender treatment and management.     

Evaluating the utility of ‘strength’ items when assessing the risk of young offenders

There is emerging recognition that positive or pro-social characteristics may lessen criminal propensity. There are now several adult and youth forensic instruments that include protective or strength components. Yet evidence supporting the protective capacities of these instruments with youth offending populations is still developing. This study aimed to identity the prevalence of strength items on the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory tool, and their relationships with risk and re-offending for a cohort of 212 multi-cultural Australian juveniles in custody. The prevalence of strengths in the sample was low, and differed by cultural group. Young people who possessed a strength yielded lower instrument total and domain scores and were more likely to be afforded a lower level of risk compared to youth without a strength. Moreover, youth who possessed a strength were significantly more likely to desist from re-offending. This association remained after controlling for level of risk. Findings point to the importance of strengths when assessing a young person’s risk for re-offending.     

Toward a multidimensional model for sexual recidivism risk

The paradigm underlying current sexual offender recidivism risk assessment procedures conceptualizes such risk in a linear fashion, ranging on a single continuum from 0% to 100%. Each risk and protective characteristic thought of relevance in an evaluation is used as an indicator of increased or decreased risk, respectively, along that same continuum. This conceptualization of risk was useful as a starting place for the application of empirically supported risk and protective factors. On the other hand, this perspective is likely simplistic and therefore potentially results in some errors that a more sophisticated assessment model would avoid. Recent research findings indicate support for a multidimensional model for sexual recidivism risk. This article explores what we already know about the existence of multiple risk dimensions, what those dimensions may be, and which risk factors assess which dimension. Implications for risk assessment procedures are discussed including how risk evaluations using this model might be conducted.     

Dynamic risk factors: scientific kinds or predictive constructs

ABSTRACT

There are a number of theoretical problems evident in the concept of dynamic risk factors that arise from their (increasing) importation into the explanatory and treatment domains of forensic and correctional practice. More specifically: (a) the concept of dynamic risk factors has not been well defined; (b) relatedly, there is a lack of clarity whether dynamic risk factors refer to causal processes or are predictive constructs; and finally (c) because of the above problems no one is sure how best to integrate them into clinical assessment and treatment. I will examine each of these three conceptual problems in this paper and make some suggestions about how to utilise dynamic risk factors in explanations of offending.     

“I Wanna Make My Mom Proud of Me”: Embracing Mothers as Protective Factors Against Future Offending in Delinquent Youth

The potential protective factor of mothers is often overlooked in literature on juvenile delinquency. However, when hearing from incarcerated youth themselves, their mothers are a clear and unquestionable priority. Through embracing mothers using a strengths‐based lens, practitioners have an opportunity and responsibility to capitalize on this asset in a youth's life in an effort to aid rehabilitation and decrease recidivism. In this study, 1,008 writing samples from incarcerated youth were analyzed and writings to or about their mothers emerged prominently. Recommendations are shared on how to embrace and support mothers as protective factors against future offending among incarcerated youth.     

Discriminating deliberate self-harm (DSH) in young prison inmates through personality disorder

This study investigated deliberate self-harm (DSH) in young inmates. The objectives are twofold: first, to identify the social and clinical characteristics of inmates who commit DSH; and secondly, to ascertain the types of personality who are vulnerable in order to be able to predict future inmates who may harm themselves. A cross-sectional design was used to study psychosocial correctional personality characteristics and clinical pictures in inmates with DSH versus a control group without DSH. The measures used to evaluate different variables were a standard protocol and a self-report questionnaire (MCMI-II). Although the two groups compared are homogeneous and similar in terms of different psychosocial variables, inmates with DSH presented a significant background of maltreatment. Borderline, passive-aggressive, and antisocial personality disorders best discriminated both groups. The detection of borderline, negativistic, and antisocial disorders may help the medical services of penitentiary centers to predict youths with a possible risk of DSH. Despite the results obtained, longitudinal studies are needed to help clarify other risk factors, as well as other risk factors leading to self-harm behavior.