Stochastic models for analyzing Criminal Careers

The recent National Research Counci! Panel on Research on Criminal Careers (Blumsteinet al., 1986) identified the following as one of its items for future research: ... changes in the model [for analyzing criminal careers] are needed to reflect the consequences of the considerable heterogeneity in the values of A. This paper discusses the range of stochastic models available that take account of variations in A that occur during an individual offender's career, variations in A between different types of offenders, and both forms of variation simultaneously. Together these models are a flexible and powerful tool for studying criminal careers. For completeness, failure rate regression models are also briefly described.     

DYF155S1基因座的法医学应用研究

目的探讨Y染色体小卫星DYF155S1基因座在法医学中的应用价值。方法采用荧光MVR-PCR和Amp-FLP技术。结果同一个体不同组织所获得的分型结果一致;本方法能作出正确分型的最低基因组DNA量为0.3 ng;在女性成份为男性成份100倍的混合DNA样本(总DNA量多少为110 ng)中能正确检出DYF155S1基因型;调查130个父系家庭的男性成员样品(减数分裂336次),总共发现DYF155S1基因座有3次突变,突变率为0.9%。对强奸案混合斑的分析,可直接检出DYF155S1基因型。但是,本方法只能区分哺乳类雄性动物与非哺乳类动物。结论采用荧光MVR-PCR和Amp-FLP方法分析Y染色体小卫星DYF155S1基因座,方法可靠,灵敏度高,对混合斑和微量检材中男性DNA的分析具有较高的应用价值。     

行政责任概念的比较分析

行政责任概念主要在行政法学和行政学上使用,多种行政责任定义具有明显的差异和区别。本文主要对行政法学研究的行政责任概念和行政学研究中的行政责任概念进行了详细的比较分析,并着重阐明行政学的行政责任概念的定义、性质和内容,从而为行政学研究和思考行政责任问题提供一个确定的、适宜的概念基础。     

Scanning for patterns of relationship: analyzing kinship and marriage networks with Puck 2.0

The article presents the software Puck (Program for the use and computation of kinship data), a computer tool for the in-depth analysis of kinship networks. Its core feature consists in identifying, counting and classifying matrimonial circuit structures (resulting from marriages between kin or affines). Such matrimonial censuses make it possible to explore in a rigorous fashion one of the most central questions in kinship studies: the relationship between particular marriage choices and the patterning of the global kinship network that emerges from them. At the same time, Puck constitutes a general tool for the management, treatment and exploratory analysis of genealogical datasets, including non-genealogical relations and random simulations. Puck has been designed to meet two complementary expectations: the identification of the recurrent, cross-cultural organizational properties of kinship networks, and the ability to situate particular actors within social processes involving both genealogical and non-genealogical factors. This article presents the theoretical foundations and main functions of Puck, using concrete examples drawn from a genealogical dataset of upper-class Parisian Jewish banking dynasties present in Paris during the nineteenth century.     

A note concerning the use of classificatory techniques by police for analyzing crime areas

These research notes present one approach to the analysis of crime areas within police jurisdictions. Association Analysis appears to be a useful method to not only classify crime areas but also to discover crimepatterns within those areas. This approach is briefly discussed and an example given to illustrate its application. Other methods and areas of application are also mentioned and discussed.     

Raman spectroscopy of blood samples for forensic applications

We investigated Raman scattering from human blood as a function of parameters that are relevant for forensic field analysis, such as substrate, sample dilution, individual from which the sample originates, and age of the sample. Peaks characteristic of blood components and in particular the hemoglobin peaks were routinely detected when blood was deposited on substrates that are not strongly luminescent, such as plastic, metal utensils and dry wall. Raman scattering from blood proved quite sensitive and blood samples with a dilution up to 1:250 could be measured for an excitation power of ～2 mW measured at the sample plane. The sensitivity of Raman scattering to diluted blood allowed measurement using blood reconstituted from fabric substrates, thereby alleviating issues related to luminescence and scattering from the substrate. The dependence of Raman scattering on sample age and individual was also investigated. We found that the relative intensities of scattering peaks depended on sample age and history. For example, the relative intensity of oxyhemoglobin peaks decreases after blood has dried. Fresh blood drawn directly from a donor without intermediate storage exhibits also scattering peaks at 1155 and 1511 cm(-1) which disappear after drying. The origin of these peaks is under investigation. We noticed, however, that they were not found in blood that had been stored for longer than one week in EDTA containers before analysis, thus requiring the use of fresh blood for future studies and validation purposes. The relative intensity of scattering peaks was also found to be somewhat dependent on the donor and, for a same donor, on the day on which blood was drawn.     

试析“行政问责制”

行政问责制是对政府的违法或不当行为及其后果追究责任的制度。行政问责制在我国的形成与发展道路是曲折的,但发展的前景是光明的;当前我国行政问责制的具体内容已相当明确、具体,但还有待于进一步完善,强化和完善我国的行政问责制有着十分重要的实践意义。     

利用足迹特征分析身高时应注意的问题

利用足迹进行遗留足迹人的身高分析是一项经常使用的足迹检验技术,本文针对不同的身高分析方法,探讨在这些方法的使用过程中应注意的一些问题,以期提高利用足迹进行身高分析的准确率,充分发挥这一检验技术在侦查工作中的作用。     

Screening tablets for DOB using surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy

2,5,-Dimethoxy-4-bromoamphetamine (DOB) is of particular interest among the various "ecstasy" variants because there is an unusually long delay between consumption and effect, which dramatically increases the danger of accidental overdose in users. Screening for DOB in tablets is problematic because it is pharmacologically active at 0.2-3 mg, which is c. 50 times less than 3,4-methylenedioxy-N-methylamphetamine (MDMA) and makes it more difficult to detect in seized tablets using conventional spot tests. The normal Raman spectra of seized DOB tablets are dominated by the bands of the excipient with no evidence of the drug component. Here we report the first use of on-tablet surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) to enhance the signal from a low concentration drug. Raman studies (785-nm excitation) were carried on series of model DOB/lactose tablets (total mass c. 400 mg) containing between 1 mg and 15 microg of DOB and on seized DOB tablets. To generate surface-enhanced spectra, 5 microL of centrifuged silver colloid was dispensed onto the upper surface of the tablets, followed by 5 microL of 1.0 mol/dm(3) NaCl. The probe laser was directed onto the treated area and spectra accumulated for c. 20 sec (10 sec x 2). It was found that the enhancement of the DOB component in the model tablets containing 1 mg DOB/tablet and in the seized tablets tested was so large that their spectra were completely dominated by the vibrational bands of DOB with little or no contribution from the unenhanced lactose excipient. Indeed, the most intense DOB band was visible even in tablets containing just 15 microg of the drug. On-tablet surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy is a simple method to distinguish between low dose DOB tablets and those with no active constituent. The fact that unique spectra are obtained allows identification of the drug while the lack of sample preparation and short signal accumulation times mean that the entire test can be carried out in <1 min.     

An improved methodology for analyzing age-arrest profiles: Application to a Western Australian offender population

A new methodology for displaying and analyzing arrest profiles of a population of offenders is illustrated on a data set containing information on all arrests made in the jurisdiction of the state of Western Australia in the 12-year period 1 April 1984 to 31 December 1995. The arrest profile shows the number of arrests accumulated by an individual offender as a function of the age at which each arrest took place. This provides a summary of the arrest careers of the individuals in the population and facilitates comparisons between groups of interest in the population, such as sex and race groups. In particular, it enables comparisons to be made between cohorts of offenders defined by the age-at-onset of their offending. For the Western Australian population analyzed here we find large differences between sex and race (Aboriginal or non-Aboriginal) groups, and also between age-at-onset cohorts, and we place these differences in the context of current criminological discussions which posit that higher mean numbers of offenses will be committed by early career starters.     

mtDNA测序结果与Anderson标准序列的比对－ClustalX等共享软件在法医物证学上的应用

目的 对多个样本的线粒体DNA(mtDNA)高变区测序结果与Anderson标准序列进行比对分析。方法 利用ABI测序仪测定生物学样本的mtDNA高变区序列,得到测序结果文件,通过Chromas、 SeqVerter软件将之转换为aln文件,用ClustalX软件与Anderson标准序列(txt文件)进行比对,确定突变点的碱基排列次序和位置。结果Chromas、SeqVerter和ClustalX软件界面友好,操作简便,可以方便地用于多个样本DNA序列的比较,结果直观,易于判读。结论　运用Chromas、SeqVerter和ClustalX等共享软件,可成功地对多个样本的mtDNA高变区序列进行比对分析。     

土地用途管制模式的立法转变

我国现行土地用途行政管制模式出现“制度失灵”,公法与私法规范结合的激励性管制应成为行政管制的替代模式。国际上土地用途管制改革已出现了总量管制与弹性管制、社区赋权、规划协议等激励性管制的实证样本,规划的不确定性理论、规划权利理论、管制协商理论为新型管制做出了法学解释。激励性土地用途管制的本质是模仿市场机制的私人自我管制。在我国,国家本位的衰落,土地市场多元利益的并存与竞争,迫切需要以激励性管制替代制度成本过高的传统行政管制。土地用途管制改革的基本路径是,划分行政干预与市场配置土地资源的法定边界,合理嵌入管制的私法规范。     

A quantitative differentiation method for acrylic fibers by infrared spectroscopy

Absorbance peak areas of nitrile (2240 cm(-1)), carbonyl (1730 cm(-1)) and CH (1370 cm(-1)) groups were obtained for 48 colorless acrylic fibers by infrared (IR) microspectroscopy. The carbonyl signal, related to the comonomers most commonly used in acrylic fibers, was ratioed against the nitrile and CH bands, pertaining to the backbone of the polymer chains. The ratios A1730/A2240 and A1730/A1370, a relative measure of the comonomer content in the fiber, were used to differentiate the samples. A decrease in the crystallinity of fibers has been noted with increasing comonomer content. Relative standard deviation (R.S.D.) of the ratios were 1 and 3% for repetitive analyses on the same location and along the length of the same single fiber, respectively. When different fibers of the same sample were examined, results were reproducible within 6%. This simple method can greatly enhance the evidential value of colorless acrylic fibers, being able to discriminate them and thus helping the Court to better assess their significance.