Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates

A methodological critique of Cantor and Land's (1985) approach to the time series analysis of the crime–unemployment relationship is developed. Error correction models for U.S. homicide and robbery rates for the years 1946–1997 are presented to illustrate procedures for analyzing nonstationary time series data. The critique is followed by a discussion of methodological problems in work by Devine et al. (1988), Smith et al. (1992), and Britt (1994, 1997) that builds on Cantor and Land's approach.     

Testing Theory and the Analysis of Time Series Data

Although the relationship between unemployment and crime has been a longstanding interest in criminology, there is little agreement about appropriate models for analyzing this relationship. David Greenberg's (this issue) discussion highlights two issues that raise questions about recent research on the unemployment–crime relationship. First, he extends the work of Hale and Sabbagh (1991) and argues that cointegration methods should be used instead of first-differenced regression models to analyze unemployment and crime time series data. Second, he argues that previous attempts to test his strain theory linking unemployment to the age distribution of crime rely on flawed hypotheses, inappropriate data, and faulty measurement. In this paper, I address both of Greenberg's claims. I begin with a discussion of the relative utility of cointegration analysis and of first-differenced regression models for the analysis of the unemployment–crime relationship, focusing on the link between theory and statistical model. I then discuss the possibility of ever testing and falsifying Greenberg's strain theory.     

The Series Hazard Model: An Alternative to Time Series for Event Data

An important pursuit by a body of criminological research is its endeavor to determine whether interventions or policy changes effectively achieve their intended goals. Because theories predict that interventions could either improve or worsen outcomes, estimators designed to improve the accuracy of identifying program or policy effects are in demand. This article introduces the series hazard model as an alternative to interrupted time series when testing for the effects of an intervention on event-based outcomes. It compares the two approaches through an example that examines the effects of two interventions on aerial hijacking. While series hazard modeling may not be appropriate for all event-based time series data or every context, it is a robust alternative that allows for greater flexibility in many contexts.     

Economic and Sociological Correlates of Suicides: Multilevel Analysis of the Time Series Data in the United Kingdom

For the effects of social integration on suicides, there have been different and even contradictive conclusions. In this study, the selected economic and social risks of suicide for different age groups and genders in the United Kingdom were identified and the effects were estimated by the multilevel time series analyses. To our knowledge, there exist no previous studies that estimated a dynamic model of suicides on the time series data together with multilevel analysis and autoregressive distributed lags. The investigation indicated that unemployment rate, inflation rate, and divorce rate are all significantly and positively related to the national suicide rates in the United Kingdom from 1981 to 2011. Furthermore, the suicide rates of almost all groups above 40 years are significantly associated with the risk factors of unemployment and inflation rate, in comparison with the younger groups.     

Examining the Effects of Health in Explaining Fear of Crime: A Multi-Dimensional and Multi-Level Analysis

We examine the understudied link between mental/physical health problems and their relationship with perceived unsafety via higher levels of vulnerability. We examine this relationship by linking data at the individual-level, the neighborhood-level, and the county-level using the Portraits of American Life Survey (PALS). Using this data we examine the effect of individual and neighborhood conditions on perceived safety while controlling for county-level crime rates. Findings indicate that higher numbers of physical impairment and mental health issues are independently related to higher levels of perceived unsafety. Both mental and physical health problems are associated with higher levels of fear. These higher levels of vulnerability then directly contribute to higher levels of feeling of unsafety. Unlike past research, we find a mental health link to fear of crime that cannot be explained by physical impairments.     

A Test of Competing Hypotheses about Homicide Following Terrorist Attacks: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis of September 11 and Oklahoma City

There is substantial evidence that catastrophic events, including terrorist attacks, lead to increased levels of post-traumatic stress, especially in communities in close proximity to the incident. Some scholars also argue that these events disrupt social organization. On the other hand, many contend that these incidents produce social cohesion as community members coalesce to help each other in time of need. These ideas have resulted in competing hypotheses in the literature. The first is that violence will increase in the wake of catastrophic events due to heightened levels of individual stress and community disorganization. The second is that violence will decline after these events because of increased social cohesion, especially in the face of an outside threat. In order to test these competing hypotheses, we employed autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) techniques to model the impact of the Oklahoma City bombing and the September 11 attacks on monthly homicide counts at the local, state, and national level. Unlike prior studies that provided evidence of an effect but did not use rigorous time-series techniques, we found no support for either of the competing hypotheses. We conclude that while such catastrophic events may have an effect on individual and collective efficacy well beyond the immediate impact of the incidents, these effects are not strong enough to influence homicide rates. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Estimation of Time of Death With a Fourier Series Unsteady‐State Heat Transfer Model

Abstract: The purpose of this study was to return to fundamental principles of heat transfer and derive a suitable model to establish a firm basis for constructing a postmortem human cooling curve. A Fourier Series Model was successfully applied to unsteady heat transfer within a wooden cylinder in controlled laboratory conditions. Wood has similar thermal diffusivity properties as human tissue. By manipulation of the model, sensitivity analyses were performed to observe the impact of changes in values of input variables. Variables of initial temperature of the cylinder and ambient surrounding temperature were shown to be very sensitive and have the most impact upon predictive results of the model. The model was also used to demonstrate the existence of an initial temperature plateau, which is often the subject of controversy in estimating time of death. Finally, it was demonstrated how the Fourier Series Model can be applied to estimate time of death for humans.     

特定物所有权转移时间的经济分析

本文用经济分析的方法,对是否应当在民法中规定特定物做一个比较.本文认为总体而言,法律应当规定特定物.这能给社会整体带来更多的利益或者减少损失并且能够促成当事人有效违约,达到社会资源的最佳配置.但在某些情况下,规定特定物可能会带来负面的影响.将来的立法应当考虑对特定物制度进行一定的限制.     

Pitfalls in the Use of Time Series Methods to Study Deterrence and Capital Punishment

Objectives

Evaluate the use of various time series methods to measure the deterrence effect of capital punishment.

Methods

The analysis of the time series approach to deterrence is conducted at two levels. First, the mathematical foundations of time series methods are described and the link between the time series properties of aggregate homicide and execution series and individual decision making is developed. Second, individual studies are examined for logical consistency.

Results

The analysis concludes that time series methods used to study the deterrence effects of capital punishment suffer from fundamental limitations and fail to provide credible evidence. The common limitation of these studies is their lack of attention to identification problems. Suggestions are made as to directions for future work that may be able to mitigate the weaknesses of the current literature.

Conclusions

Time series studies of capital punishment suffer from sufficiently serious identification problems that existing empirical findings are compatible with either the presence or the absence of a deterrent effect.     

Explaining corruption: An institutional choice approach

The end of the Cold War, thestrengthening of world democracy, and the advancement of neoliberaleconomic reforms, have exposed corruption as a major world problem andspawned a plethora of international and national anti-corruption programs. Past theorizing has increased our knowledge about corruption, however, aninterdisciplinary (political, economic, cultural) theory of the causes ofpolitical corruption has never emerged. This article develops amiddle-range interdisciplinary theory of the causes of corruption builtthrough employment of an institutional choice analytic frame. The analyticframe draws on the Institutional Analysis and Development work of ElinorOstrom, Roy Gardner, & James Walker, and the constructivist work ofNicholas Onuf. The resultant theory is advanced through a statisticalanalysis. The article concludes that ongoing international and nationalanti-corruption programs will likely fail unless they include reforms to stateinternal power structures and political cultures.     

Explaining crime in developing countries: The need for a case study approach

The relationship between crime and development typically has been investigated within the theoretical umbrella of three dominant frameworks (modernization, underdevelopment, routine activities) and by the analysis of cross-national, statistical correlations between developed and developed countries. We outline the empirical, methodological, conceptual and theoretical weaknesses of these studies. The categories developed and developing are invalid when studying crime and change and the defects of existing approaches can only be overcome by a case study approach to the relationships of patterns of crime in different countries.     

The Elderly Victim at Risk: Explaining the Fear- Victimization Paradox

Current research argues that criminal victimization of the elderly is less of a problem than advocates for the elderly have argued it was in the past. The rate of victimization has been empirically demonstrated to be lower than for most other age groups. At the same time, the elderly express high levels of fear regarding criminal victimization. This article seeks to explain this apparent paradox through an “at risk” hypothesis that accounts for both low rates and high fear.     

Explaining Sexual Harassment Judgments: Looking Beyond Gender of the Rater

Law and Human Behavior - In two decades of research on sexual harassment, one finding that appears repeatedly is that gender of the rater influences judgments about sexual harassment such that...     

失序与弹压:2011年英国骚乱之诱因与刑事法制的反应

2011年夏发生的英国骚乱具有深刻的社会政治经济、文化与种族背景,是各种反权威、反社会的合力的总体现。其直接导火索是少数族裔与执法部门之间因种族问题而导致的冲突,其后续发展反映了社会政治经济地位被"相对剥夺"了的下层民众与社会权威机构之间的矛盾。同时,骚乱活动又具有相当程度的盲目性、松散性与自发性。为了修补破碎的英国社会,单纯靠监狱、刑罚、警察与军队的暴力解决不了根本问题,因为刑罚的威慑力应该并且实际上是有限的。以这场骚乱为启示,缓解社会矛盾和维护社会稳定,一方面要解决社会贫富不均与不同利益群体之间的矛盾等深层问题,另一方面需要培养社会公众的、守法的、内在的道德抑制机制,提高法律和执政当局的权威和正当性。     

A Meta-Analysis of Race and Sentencing Research: Explaining the Inconsistencies

Numerous studies have addressed the question: Are African-Americans treated more harshly than similarly situated whites? This research employs meta-analysis to synthesize this body of research. One-hundred-sixteen statistically independent contrasts were coded from 71 published and unpublished studies. Coded study and contextual features are used to explain variation in research findings. Analyses indicate that African-Americans generally are sentenced more harshly than whites; the magnitude of this race effect is statistically significant but small and highly variable. Larger estimates of unwarranted disparity are found in contrasts that examine drug offenses, imprisonment or discretionary decisions, do not pool cases from several smaller jurisdictions, utilize imprecise measures, or omit key variables. Yet, even when consideration is confined to those contrasts employing key controls and precise measures of key variables, unwarranted racial disparities persists. Further, a substantial proportion of variability in study results is explained by study factors, particularly methodological factors.