Perceptions,fear, and economic loss: an application of prospect theory to environmental decision making

Most of the analysis of costs associated with the introduction of risky prospects has concerned contingent costs amenable to insurance programs. An important missing element is the current cost associated with changes in uncertainty. These costs are not amenable to insurance plans and require compensation in order to prevent transfers. In a novel approach, this paper develops an application of prospect theory to such questions, in an intergenerational context. The importance of such an application is demonstrated in a case study of the high-level nuclear waste repository (HNWR) siting decision. As a case study, the costliness of obtaining some elements of the analysis leads to a simulation approach, comparing prospect costs at the three sites that were under consideration by the U.S. Department of Energy. Finding that such costs can be large, we argue for a reassessment of current risk analysis approaches. On a policy note, on the basis of the prospect cost analysis here, the choice of the Yucca Mountain, Nevada, HNWR site seems ill-advised.     

Backjumps: writing,watching, erasing train graffiti

This article deals with mobile semiotics. First and foremost, it discusses mobility as a semiotic device. The analysis engages with backjumps, a genre of train graffiti that draws inventively on various forms of movement. The term backjump refers to any fairly elaborate graffiti piece painted on trains in traffic, notably during the trains’ extended stops at terminal stations. The examples focus on the Stockholm metro, where a rigorous anti-graffiti policy has been firmly in place: graffiti is quickly cleaned off trains and a range of strategies is implemented to keep graffiti writing under wraps. By slyly inserting graffiti into the metro system, the mobility-driven backjump practice allows graffiti writers to temporarily subvert this semiotic regime. Furthermore, the forms of semiotic mobility at play are not limited to the movement of the trains. As the present study shows, mobile backjumps are entangled in other patterns of mobility, which jointly underwrite a number of interlinked semiotic processes.     

高铁动车组列车旅财犯罪打防工作初探

防范和打击高速铁路动车组列车上的盗窃旅客财物犯罪活动,是铁路公安机关面临的一个新课题。拟分析近年来上海铁路公安处管内动车组列车旅财犯罪特点、原因和工作难点,从细化勤务规范、加强基础建设、完善站车配合、规范处警程序、实行动态用警等方面提出对策。     

Are bureaucrats efficient? An application to the provision of AFDC

The question on how bureaucrats behave in the provision of a public service has been the subject of a considerable amount of research, most of which has been largely theoretical and inconclusive, especially on the issue of efficiency. This paper builds a bureaucratic theoretical model and provides empirical evidence by examining the workings of a government bureau, supplying a public service, namely Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC), at the state level. It builds and estimates a generalized short run cost function that allows for systematic relative price inefficiency and does not require cost minimization subject to market prices as a maintained hypothesis. The model tests cost minimization as a testable special case. The estimating procedure allows us to test for a number of other features of the technology that are of interest such as productivity growth, marginal costs, returns to scale, technical change, and factor demands.     

The nuclear weapons issue in the 1983 British general election

Abstract. In common with many other Western European countries, the issue of nuclear weapons rose to political prominence in Britain in the course of the 1980s. However, whereas the issue was often taken up by newly formed environmentalist parties elsewhere, it differentiated the traditional parties one from the other in Britain. This was made possible by the Labour party's manifesto commitment to unilateral nuclear disarmament. This article details the views of the British electorate on the nuclear issue and assesses its importance for individual voting patterns in the 1983 general election. The electorate shows itself able to distinguish between, and hold opposing views on, nuclear weapons in principle and control over them in practice. Its general support for them, however, means that Labour's perceived hostility to them cost it a considerable number of votes in net terms. These losses could have been mitigated, perhaps even turned into gains, had the party emphasised the security problems stemming from Britain's lack of control over American nuclear weapons on its soil.     

对张世兵客车流窜犯罪团伙的剖析与思考

张世兵客车流窜犯罪团伙的作案特点:(1)团伙成员多,具有职业化;(2)活动范围相对固定;(3)作案手段多变;(4)作案多,危害大;(5)逃避打击伎俩多;(6)抗审心理强。当前积极预防控制和打击客车流窜犯罪的对策:(1)加强刑侦基础工作,为防范、打击服务;(2)落实站车查堵,增强防控犯罪的针对性和实效性;(3)采取积极举措,切实解决立案不实问题;(4)加强协调,加大打击力度;(5)群防群治,增强群众自我防范与保护能力。     

Public versus private production and economies of scale

The cost of producing the same good often differs substantially for public and private producers. We investigate the effect of organization in a case where the production technology is simple: The cleaning of Danish schools. Three forms of organization are used: Decentral municipal, central municipal or private. For small schools the organizational form has little impact on cost. For larger schools decentral municipal production is the most expensive. On average centralization reduces costs by 5%, while privatization reduces costs by 30%. Similar cost differences are reported in the literature for other cases, but it is a new result that the cost differences are due to economies of scale. Public choice theories predict that cost differences are due to ownership or competition. We find evidence that both theories help explain the cost differences.     

关于站车交接案件的调研报告

站车交接案件是铁路公安机关最具特色的案件类别,抓好站车交接案件办理工作,是发挥铁路公安机关整体作战优势,实现“以地保车”,及时有效打击违法犯罪的重要勤务模式.在修改后的《刑事诉讼法》颁布实施,特别是在当前铁路公安改制转型、公安职能理性回归的大背景下,更应采取各项行之有效的工作措施,进一步规范办理站车交接案件,切实提高办案质量,更好地为铁路的持续安全稳定发展大局服务.     

17例铁路货物列车“拖尸”案（事）件性质鉴别

铁路货物列车“拖尸”案（事）件是指受害人由于他杀、自杀、意外死亡等原因,尸体被货物列车从事发地拖运至发现地的案（事）件.在1991年-2012年上海局鉴定的17例货物列车“拖尸”案（事）件中,意外死亡12例、杀人碎尸1例、自杀1例、其他3例,死者以男性为主（16例）,多为乡村农民和盲流,死亡原因主要为机械性窒息和颅脑损伤.在17例货物列车“拖尸”案（事）件中,受害人多为缺乏铁路常识,无钱买票而爬乘货物列车的乡村农民或盲流,尸体通常多在货物列车终到站并多在卸货时被发现,由于尸体现场遭到人为或外在不同程度的破坏,增加了法医学鉴别的难度.     

铁路车站爆炸案件现场勘验

铁路车站爆炸案件现场,既具有铁路线路和旅客列车爆炸现场构成因素的一些共性,同时和一般爆炸现场相比又有很强的铁路特殊性。铁路车站爆炸案件现场的勘验,必须运用刑事技术、爆炸现场勘验的基本原理,结合铁路基本知识,抓住铁路车站爆炸案件现场的特点,正确处理“积极侦查,及时破案”和“保证铁路运输畅通”之间的矛盾,才能迅速、高效地完成勘验任务,为侦查提供可靠的线索,为破案提供有力的证据。本文主要探讨铁路车站爆炸案件现场勘验的程序,以及现场炸点、爆炸痕迹、爆炸残留物、爆炸损伤勘验的内容等。     

Risk Assessment in Environmental Policymaking

A problem in policymaking for prevention of harm to persons and the environment concerns the probability of harm occurring—that is, the measure of risk involved. Policymakers have almost always sought to calculate the risk involved in proposed courses of action. Their methods have often been irrational and their estimates erroneous. Explicit analysis of risk to society and systematic methods for estimating it emerged with the advent of science as more reliable procedures for prediction and decision-making. However, as with many other forms of analysis, the assessment of risk has carried its own risk—namely an undue reliance on logical quantitative techniques which fail to address the root causes of public concern and apprehension. Common-sense assessments of risk tell us more what risks people regard as acceptable and risks arouse anxiety and protest. Carnage from accidents on the nation's highways arouse much less apprehension than nuclear accidents even though actual risk from automobiles is much greater than injury or death from nuclear reactors. The following paper makes the case that the art and science of risk assessment will fall short of social and political realities until the psychological and cultural aspects of risk receive more adequate attention.     

Traveling frames: How corporate and civil society actors try to influence public administration and courts in a case on nuclear emission data in Switzerland

This paper focuses on the framing strategies lobbyists apply to influence public policy in a case on nuclear emission data in Switzerland. Framing analysis is at the heart of communication science and has been applied in lobbying settings, but framing theory has not yet been fine‐tuned to the specificities of public affairs research. This qualitative case study gives insights into the dominant frames seven actors ranging from corporations to nongovernmental organizations to public institutions employ to defend a legal court case in the nuclear power industry. The results of the document analysis and the interviews show that frames travel among diverse actors and only some are picked up by the courts, at times stating a position opposite to the one initially intended by the frame sponsor. A public affairs‐specific integrated process model of framing is presented that views the media in the role of a moderator in the framing process and pronounces the lobbying organizations' strategic goals, the different stakeholders as target audiences, and the outcomes of the public affairs process.     

North Korean Space Program Legitimization Efforts: Review and Policy Recommendations

With much attention being concentrated on containing North Korean nuclear and ballistic missile programs, the North Korean space program also faces objections from the international community. This article claims that identifying North Korea’s space program developments with its ballistic missile program is unjustified and even undermines the space program’s potential for hastening a successful Korean unification. The goal of the article is to suggest a departure from a current hostile attitude toward the North Korean space program and to make alternative policy recommendations. The first part of the article focuses on a literature review of sources devoted to the North Korean space program, emphasizing the existence of alternative views of it other than the common view of it being a threat to international security. The second part describes efforts made by North Korea on the international and domestic scenes to confirm its space program’s legitimacy and make it more transparent, amidst continuing condemnations and sanctions by the United Nations, concluding with the positive dynamics of North Korean space efforts. The final part is dedicated to possible alternatives to current international policy towards the North Korean space program, underscoring a potentially mutually beneficial cooperation between North Korea and Southeast Asian prospective spacefaring nations. It is claimed that such cooperation might raise the technological level of the North Korean economy and narrow the gap between the two Korean states, offering more possibilities for eventual unification.     

Consultation, Constraints and Norms: The Case of Nuclear Waste

The objectives of public consultation can clash with other policy objectives, partly because the norms underpinning public consultation clash with other institutional norms within the policy process. This phenomenon is evident in the case of selecting a site for a low-level nuclear waste disposal facility in Australia. This case shows how the results of consultation processes are moulded by the process design, which in turn is constrained by a range of policy process norms to which governments adhere. The case confirms some recent critiques of participatory practices. It also suggests that reconciling potentially competing policy process norms will be an important exercise in institutional design if elected representatives wish to mitigate citizens' alienation from their governments.     

Intergouvernementale Beziehungen und Fiskalpolitik in Bundesstaaten

This article is dedicated to the question if and how federal structures have an influence on decisions in fiscal policy. In order to answer this question four countries are selected as case studies that represent on the one hand a more competitive model (Canada, Belgium) and on the other hand a more cooperative model (Germany, Switzerland). We want to know which effect and disturbing potential federal structures in these countries could have on fiscal policy making and if the distinction of federal types explains variations in decision making. The focus will be on intergovernmental relations in fiscal policy making, i.e. the possibility to act of the federal government in the light of the veto-power of member states and parties. The result is: federal structures have in general, without differences according to the type of federalism, a constraining influence for keynesian demand management. They also have, though in different ways, a potential negative influence on deficit reduction. This negative influence can, however, be neutralised by intended and unintended mechanisms which differ between countries.     

The influence of management on the cost of fire protection

An important and unresolved issue central to the study of government performance is how the actions of managers and the nature of organizations affect the cost of public services. This paper presents an empirical analysis of fire departments that estimates the influence of managerial choices on per capita spending within a simultaneous public production system. It does so by refining a theoretical cost model from the field of public management to include fundamental dimensions of government organizations and administration. Two‐stage least squares regression analysis is then employed to examine the fire protection case. The results of the analysis substantiate the intuition that managerial practices and decisions influence the cost of a public service. They show that the cost of fire protection depends significantly on the outcomes of a department's fire prevention and suppression activities, some key aspects of a department's management practices, the configuration of its workforce and equipment, its legal structure, and factors in its external environment. © 2004 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

This other and other others

This paper offers an alternative understanding of the relationship between feminist ethics, time and otherness. Rather than suggesting a feminist ethics should simply be for ‘the other’, or that feminist ethics is always futural (dedicated to that which is not yet), the paper suggests that ethics involves responding to the particular other in a present that carries traces of the past, as well as opening up the future. It is through responding to particular others (where particularity is not understood as a characteristic of another, but as a mode of encounter) that we face and face up to ‘other others’. The relationship between ‘this other’ and ‘other others’ suggests an intimacy between the particular and the collective, between the face-to-face of an encounter and political economies, and between feminist ethics and politics. Indeed, the paper concludes by suggesting that the ethical and political imperatives of feminism are aligned precisely given that collectivity is an effect of the work that has to be done to get closer to this other and, with her, other others. This other and other others collect together in the making of a feminist ‘we’. Such a ‘we’ can be embraced only through a willingness to struggle with and for others who are faced in the present (a facing that is indebted to a past that cannot be left behind), and an openness to the future, as the promise and hope of what we might yet become.     

Context and innovation in traditional bureaucracies: A Hong Kong study

Traditional bureaucracies, defined in Weberian terms, are almost invariably seen as antithetical to innovation. Yet, although the academic literature presents an array of formidable structural barriers to the emergence and implementation of new ideas, innovation does occur in traditional bureaucracies. How can the structural impediments be overcome? What are the processes that enable innovation to take place? Based on a longitudinal study of the Hong Kong government's innovation policies and practices, it is argued that political context is a critical variable explaining how, even in rigid traditional bureaucracies, barriers may be avoided or temporarily suspended. Two contrasting case studies are used to illustrate, first, the importance of political commitment in gaining acceptance for new ideas and, second, the failure of agencies dedicated to innovation to achieve their objectives. It is postulated that circumventing structural barriers or working through political channels to reduce their impact may be a more constructive strategy than creating dedicated agencies to develop innovative measures. The study is grounded in a literature review, documentary evidence from the Hong Kong government's innovative agencies, and interviews with senior staff from those agencies.     

The Aversion to Direct Cost Imposition: Selecting Climate Policy Tools in the United States

Numerous policy tools could be employed in attempting to mitigate climate change through reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Direct cost imposition through the taxation of carbon content of fossil fuels has long enjoyed support from diverse policy analysts but has proven highly difficult to advance politically in the United States and many other nations. This article considers the evolving American experience in climate policy tool selection, including extended engagement by many states over the past decade and growing federal involvement in recent Congresses. It demonstrates the enduring aversion to direct cost imposition as opposed to other policy options. This includes a brief period in late 2008 and early 2009 when prospects for direct cost imposition heightened markedly at the federal level but collapsed quickly in favor of a mélange of other approaches that are likely to be less efficient but also less direct in their imposition of costs. The article concludes with considerations of other methods to advance direct cost imposition in the American case.     

Benefits and costs of the 55 mph speed limit: New estimates and their implications

The national 55 mile-per-hour speed limit was in effect from 1974 to 1987, and over the years many analysts have attempted to measure and compare its costs (enforcement and travel time) and benefits (safety and fuel economy). In 1984 a committee of the National Research Council completed a major study of the speed limit. The following article completes the committee's calculations; summarizes the results in units of money, lives, and travel time; and divides these effects between rural interstates and all other roads. Over a range of plausible dollar values for extra travel time, the cost of saving a life is estimated to be much higher on rural interstates than on other affected roads—and higher than the cost of saving a life by other highway safety measures as well. Hence, proponents of higher speed limits on the rural interstates have a strong case in the debate, which continues in the state legislatures.