The Exoteric Politics of Bank Mergers in Australia

The Australian government's 1997 policy ban on in-market mergers among the largest four domestic banks has been a key intervention shaping the direction of bank consolidation in Australia as such mergers significantly accelerated from 1997 through 1999 in developed economies. This paper will show that the knowledge about the social and economic impacts of the bank mergers and the Treasurer's merger veto power made the policy debate exoteric (political and public) by including interests outside the banking policy community (i.e., interest organisations of employees, customers, and farmers, as well as political parties, and the broad public). Thus, the merger policy discussions were not esoteric, technical and limited to a small number of influential public and private sector institutions leaving policy discussions vulnerable to be structured to favour the interests of large, financial firms over other interests. This, in turn, created significant pressure on government for to retain the policy. The paper also outlines the significance of the domestic political conflicts and electoral politics in a world of global finance.     

制度距离、文化差异与中美贸易摩擦中的权力因素——基于1980~2018年美国对外贸易争端数据的定量研究

中美贸易摩擦是体系压力和美国国内因素共同作用的结果。基于1980~2018年美国对外贸易争端数据的定量研究,文章采用面板负二项模型对中美两国间的制度距离、文化差异和相对实力差距的缩小等结构性变量,以及美国国内政治等单元层次的中介变量、贸易和投资等渠道变量,对中美贸易摩擦的影响进行了实证考察。研究认为,中美间军事、经济和科技实力差距的缩小即相对实力分布的变化会显著强化美国作为守成大国对中国作为崛起大国发起贸易摩擦的可能性;中美两国间的政治、经济制度距离和文化差异或价值观的不同也会显著影响中美两国间发生贸易摩擦的可能性,同时,与美国政治关系良好、在制度和文化上与其接近的国家并不必然意味着与美国贸易摩擦的减少;美国国内不同政治行为体、社会行为体的利益诉求、政策偏好,与贸易的交互效应一起,会进一步增加中美两国因实力差距的缩小、制度和文化(观念)差异等体系因素或结构性变量所引发的贸易摩擦发生的概率;经济因素依然是决定中美贸易摩擦的基础性因素,中美贸易失衡、中国对美直接投资的迅速增加以及中国对美国市场渗透率的提升、美国国内经济绩效的波动、美国国内收入不平等程度的加剧,与贸易的收入分配效应一起,也会显著提升两国间发生贸易摩擦的可能性。     

软法与硬法的冲突和对抗:重塑国际贸易体制的新路径选择

作为治理国际贸易问题的两种不同属性的规则系统,软法与硬法之间有时候以相互补充和相互协调的关系出现;然而,冲突与对抗也是二者关系的表现形态。在利用软法以软化、修正和改变硬法,进而影响或塑造新的国际贸易利益分配制度框架方面,发达国家和发展中国家均有过成功的实践。当前,国际经济结构正在经历变革,作为负责任的发展中大国,中国可以且应当善用软法,积极有效地参与国际贸易体制的调整与重塑,使国家经济利益在以WTO为中心的国际贸易体制中得到应有和恰当的表达。     

大国博弈、双层均势的亚洲时刻--俄罗斯智库对中美经贸摩擦的认知与政策立场

俄罗斯智库对中美经贸摩擦有着独特的认知和期待,并与克里姆林宫的官方立场互为表里。总体上,俄方智库的观点是,在经贸摩擦的背后,是中美两国对军事、政治、科技、地区和全球领导权的竞争;两国的国内议程和对外政策,将因此受到深远影响并产生溢出效应--在亚洲区域内形成两极结构。即使两国会因国内和国际政治因素,在经贸问题上达成妥协,但中方不会放弃获得世界科技领导者的雄心,美方也不会打消遏制中国发展动能的战略意图。俄罗斯应与中国继续保持经济与军事合作,避免与美国和西方关系的继续恶化,并在亚太地区推动"大欧亚伙伴关系"倡议。俄罗斯政策分析界基于自身利益的演绎,将中美经贸摩擦定性为大国博弈,相应的政策建议反映出俄罗斯以在全球和亚洲分别制衡美中为目标的双层均势策略。俄罗斯将在有亚洲其他国家参与的情景下扮演战略平衡手角色,借中美全面对抗之势,在中美俄三边关系之外扭转不利的外部发展环境。俄罗斯对亚太国际局势的盘活作用,将催生双边和三边竞合新模式的建立。     

Can Mercosur Survive? Domestic and International Constraints on Mercosur

Mercosur has survived several crises by resorting to presidential diplomacy, but it risks becoming an empty shell unless member states work to coordinate macroeconomic policies. Its survival depends on the outcome of domestic political struggles in Brazil and Argentina and on the harmonization of exchange-rate policies between the two countries. This article examines the Argentine-Brazilian "trade wars" provoked by successive devaluations of the Brazilian currency, aggravated in 2001 by the Argentine economic crisis. The social explosion in Argentina in December 2001 showed that domestic actors can successfully challenge proglobalization policies. To consolidate, Mercosur will have to address the democratic deficit while building supranational institutions and an effective dispute-settlement system.     

Trade Liberalisation and the Australian Labor Party

The three most substantial decisions to reduce Australia's trade barriers — in 1973, 1988 and 1991 — were made by Labor Governments. Labor's policy shift preceded the conversion of social democratic parties in other countries to trade liberalisation. To understand why this was so, it is necessary to consider trade policy as being shaped by more than interest groups and political institutions. Drawing on interviews with the main political figures, including Gough Whitlam, Bob Hawke, Paul Keating and John Button, this article explores why the intellectual arguments for free trade had such a powerful impact on Labor's leadership, and how those leaders managed to implement major tariff cuts, while largely maintaining party unity.     

China and the Worldwide Search for Oil Security

The notion of oil security on a global scale is problematic because of the diverging perspectives with which oil-importing countries and oil-exporting countries view energy security. Oil-importing countries are interested in “oil supply” while oil-exporting countries focus on “oil demand.” This leaves ample space for major powers to maneuver within the complex political-economic dynamics associated with oil trade. China has been no exception.

This commentary addresses the international debate that has emerged concerning the geo-strategic and geo-economic motivations behind China's pursuit of offshore oil supply. By examining China's oil-related overseas investments in Sudan we shed light on some of the business and political complexities associated with the China-Sudan relationship. In the view of many Chinese observers, Sudan has in terms of oil exploration been a Chinese success story while in the view of many foreign observers, China's dealings in Sudan are the very reason why China has faced harsh international criticism of its overseas oil operations.

Instead of debating whether or not China has the right, just as all oil-importing countries do, to pursue its own route to oil security we encourage oil-importing countries to re-examine the existing mechanisms of oil trade. It is in the interest of China as well as the established economies to collaborate in shaping a new global structure for oil trade.     

Procedure over substance? CETA and the political economy of subsidiarity

ABSTRACT

Competing notions of subsidiarity can help to understand the intricacies of new types of trade deals as concluded between Canada and the European Union. From this perspective the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) balances two fundamentally different models of economic distribution and decision making authority either giving priority to private actors and their domestic communities or to political institutions aiming for a social embedding within global markets. Examining CETA as an unusual compromise in international regulatory cooperation, this article focuses on the settlement of highly contentious issues through complex procedural innovation. While this eventually made a final agreement between trading partners with two different polities possible, it could not settle widely diverging assessments about the long-term economic effects of the new deal. As a consequence, and to build bridges between distinct spaces of subsidiarity, the final agreement represents a flexible and open-ended approach to future trade relations.     

全球环境治理“领导者”的蜕变:加拿大的案例

加拿大长期以来曾是西方发达国家中积极领导全球环境治理的典范,一度也是全球气候治理的积极参与者,但是近年来却俨然蜕变为气候谈判中的"拖后腿者"。发生这种转变的原因究竟是什么?本文通过国际和国内、政治与经济多个层面的分析发现,除了美国因素以外,加拿大国内的经济形势变化和政治体制是导致其战略变化的主要原因。20世纪90年代以来,油砂大规模开发和原油出口(特别是对美国的市场依赖),导致加拿大在气候变化问题上处于比较劣势;而相关利益集团的游说,正好与加拿大松散的联邦制等制度因素相结合,导致了加拿大气候政策的转向。从这个层面上看,经济利益的变化和政治决策制度特征共同成为决定国家气候或环境战略的主要因素。在某种程度上,这一案例也反驳了发达民主国家因其制度因素必然成为全球环境保护积极支持者的命题。     

US Trade Deficits and Sino-US Relations

American politicians and policy makers have blamed China's exchange rate for the large US trade deficits. This paper explains why the USA treats its trade deficits with China as a security issue that have become a source of friction in Sino-US relations. The essay argues that this friction is a useful deflection from the politically difficult policy action needed to remedy the US economy and cannot easily be removed by the Chinese side alone. The structure of global trade and the reality of China's political economy, which forces Chinese leaders to develop policies for a “harmonious society” in the face of growing inequality also makes it difficult for China to respond positively to US pressure on the exchange rate.     

试析中日农产品贸易摩擦

随着全球经济一体化,各国之间的经贸关系日趋密切,我国对外贸易迅速发展,贸易摩擦逐年升温,特别是中日农产品贸易摩擦此起彼伏.本文以近年来中日农产品贸易摩擦实例为依据,从经济和政治两方面分析产生贸易摩擦的原因,而后提出缓解贸易摩擦的措施.随着中日双方的相互协调和经济发展,中日农产品贸易将在摩擦中继续发展.     

粤泰经贸关系:前景与挑战

文章从广东与泰国经贸关系的基础出发,重点分析粤泰经贸的现状和前景,并介绍了在泰国政治危机和全球金融危机双重条件下粤泰经贸关系进一步发展所面临的挑战.     

欧盟战略自主与欧版“印太战略”

为提高国际社会影响力,实现“新安全战略”,应对“美国优先”、英国“脱欧”等危机和挑战,欧盟强化战略自主并培育安全力量建设。随着印太地区地缘战略重要性的增强,欧盟及其成员国不断加强与印太的联系,力求成为该地区新的战略参与者。欧版“印太战略”,以日欧贸易协定为蓝本,优先发展对日关系,联合介入印太,通过与印太国家签订双边或多边自由贸易协定,探索在这一地区建立多边自由贸易体系;强调经济与安全并重发展;法英在欧盟介入印太过程中充当先遣队。它以维护自由与开放、繁荣和稳定的印太秩序为切入点,使欧盟成为这一地区解决传统与非传统安全问题的利益攸关方,谋求与中美在印太地区实现战略平衡。     

Steuerwettbewerb und direkte Demokratie in den Schweizer Kantonen

The issue of the impact of tax competition between the cantons has been quite present in the public discussion, especially in relation with the reform of the Swiss system of financial equalization. The connection between the degree of direct democratic rights and the intensity of tax competition ana‐lysed by Feld (1997) seems to be particularly interesting for political science. Differently to the approach of Feld (1997) this research note examines it with regard to the tax policies in the cantons. In addition, a less criticized way to measure the institutions of direct democracy is used and the research period is extended. The analysis shows that there is a trade‐off between the exit‐ and the voice‐option. In other words: those cantons that have well developed direct democratic institutions, are less affected by the pressure of tax competition. As a consequence of the perceived influence, their citizens do less probably move to an other canton as a reaction to a heavy tax burden.     

The vicious circle of post-Soviet neopatrimonialism in Russia

Since the collapse of Communism, Russia and some other post-Soviet states have attempted to pursue socioeconomic reforms while relying upon the political institutions of neopatrimonialism. This politico-economic order was established to serve the interests of ruling groups and establish the major features of states, political regimes, and market economies. It provided numerous negative incentives for governing the economy and the state due to the unconstrained rent-seeking behavior of major actors. Policy reform programs revealed these institutions to be incompatible with the priorities of modernization, and efforts to resolve these contradictions through a number of partial and compromise solutions often worsened the situation vis-à-vis preservation of the status quo. The ruling groups lack incentives for institutional changes, which could undermine their political and economic dominance, and are caught in a vicious circle: reforms often result in minor returns or cause unintended and undesired consequences. What are the possible domestic and international incentives to reject the political institutions of neopatrimonialism in post-Soviet states and replace them with inclusive economic and political ones?     

Feminism and Political History

Political historians traditionally privileged the political activities of men and masculine political institutions. This vision of political history was revised from the early 1970s, first by "women's history" and later due to the influence of the "gender turn". The latter encompassed a recognition that conceptions of masculinity and femininity contribute to the shaping of political power. Both developments challenged but ultimately reinvigorated political history. However, as this article will argue, political history and feminist history remain to an extent quarantined from one another, despite the radical potential for feminist scholarship to change the way politics is conceived.     

From interest groups to parties: The change in the career patterns of the legislative elite in German social policy

Analysing the careers of members of the Bundestag Standing Committee for Labour and Social Affairs, the paper demonstrates that the ties between social politicians and social policy organisations such as trade unions, faith-based social policy organisations, independent charity organisations, works councils and social insurance institutions have become blurred. Since the 1990s social politicians have become more focused on political careers in the party and in parliament than on social policy. The new social politicians are party politicians who have distanced themselves from the interest groups. The qualitative change in parliamentary personnel is explained by changes in electoral politics, parties and interest groups. The author argues that the weakening linkages confirm contemporary research results on change in German neo-corporatism.     

Institutional Weakness and the Puzzle of Argentina's Low Taxation

Current explanations of taxation levels have identified a host of factors, such as levels of economic development and GDP per capita, tax handles, tax morale, and political regimes. But none of them can account for Argentina's exceptionalism. Using a "transaction cost politics" approach and the case of Brazil for comparison, this article argues that the key to explaining low taxation in Argentina is political instability. Systemic instability affects the tax behavior of governments. Facing an uncertain future, incumbent governments choose to extract resources from society through inflation rather than normal taxation. This article argues that political institutions, particularly federalism, contribute to instability and thereby reduce the discount rates of government policymakers.     

Reviews

The expansion of the global economy and the governance deficit it has generated raise questions about the possibilities for regulating the practices of participants in global production networks. This paper focuses on the regulation of industrial relations in Cambodia's textile and garment industry – a unique ensemble of state, trade union, private sector and international institutions that is promoted as a “fair model of globalisation.” We track the trajectory of Cambodia's industrialisation and insertion into the global economy over three interrelated phases: first, the beginnings of export-orientated garment production in the mid- to late 1990s; secondly, the promotion of Cambodia as an “ethical producer” from 1999; and, thirdly, privileging “competitiveness” in global production networks over labour compliance for its advantage. In doing so we centre our analysis on the complex intertwining of global production, the genesis of the unique ensemble of actors in Cambodia and the anomaly of Cambodia's labour movement.     

Institutionelle Arbeit am Konflikt – ein Beitrag zur Transnationalisierung der Arbeitsbeziehungen?

Although political decisions and the mobility of capital have advanced the integration of markets at the European and the global level, durable transnational bargaining relationships between labor and capital remain rare. Drawing on case studies in two automobile companies the article explores whether and how class-based conflicts are institutionalized in the transnational social space of European industry. Concepts are borrowed from the theories of Pierre Bourdieu and neo-institutionalism to develop a relational, space-sensitive understanding of power lacking in existing perspectives, such as the power resource approach. This allows for a better grasp of the institutions shaping transnational employment relations in the two studied companies, Volkswagen and General Motors-Opel, as well as of the differing stability of these institutions.