国际政治中违反国际规范行为分析

国际关系主流学派在违反国际规范原因分析上仍存在较大分歧.理性主义学派认为违反国际规范是国际规范与国家利益相互冲突造成的.建构主义学派则认为是由于国际规范参照系模糊性与特定国际环境下决策的观念导致的.国际政治心理学认为,决策者的动机偏见使得决策者在解释其政策和外部环境时,出于维护国家利益的需要将违反国际规范视为社会可接受的行为.此外,国际规范中存在多元的参照系数和决策者对于国际环境不同认识,使得决策者在违反国际规范时在心理上心存侥幸或者刻意采取不同的标准对其行为进行解释.也就是说,违反国际规范的行为是由于国际规范本身相对的模糊性和决策者对于规范本身认知上的主观性造成的.文章试图在分析违反国际规范行为心理因素的基础之上,探究理性主义和建构主义在违反国际规范愿意分析上的契合点.     

The Psychology of Political Extremism

Any attempt to analyse the phenomenon of political extremism must seek to explain why choices are sometimes made to articulate such views through violence. It is proposed that such a choice may have little to do with the specific ideology through which extremism is expressed but instead may reflect deeper psychological considerations. Investigations of persons who grew up in totalitarian systems suggest that the state may invade the psyche, interfering with the normal interplay of ego, superego and id. An explanation depending on the construction of a tripartite model of personal, non-personal and impersonal self was developed to explain the consequences of this process. It is proposed that such models may have a wider relevance and can be applied to the phenomenon of violence arising from contemporary political extremism. The advantage of such models is that they can be subjected to empirical investigation.     

When States Choose to Die: Reassessing Assumptions About What States Want

In order to explain the creation and maintenance of a number of important international institutions, scholars must reconsider a commonly held assumption about what states want. Structural realists show that the assumption that states desire survival explains a wide range of outcomes. Yet the survival assumption prevents both realists and liberal institutionalists from offering a plausible account of international organizations that are costly to autonomy. The cultures of anarchy argument helps explain when the desire to survive is more or less salient but is burdened with the survival assumption nonetheless. I argue that it is useful to assume that states pursue the national interest and that survival is only a potential means to that end. By employing this assumption within the cultures of anarchy framework, we can begin to formulate an explanation for the willingness of states to cede autonomy to international institutions.     

范式选择与中国国际政治学科的发展

本文在考察“国际政治”、“国际关系”、“世界政治”、“全球政治”概念的产生及其相似性,以及国外学者使用这几个概念的倾向性基础上,探讨了中国学术界使用这几个概念的基本情况,认为有必要使专业设置与概念的应用协调一致,以利于中国国际政治学各学派的争鸣以及理论体系的创新。     

中东发展中国家政党(政权)与军队关系透析

政党(政权)与军队关系对中东发展中国家的政局影响重大.两者关系可以归纳为5类:一党独大管控军队型、多党执政军队"中立"型、多党(派)武装并存型、君主及家族管控军队型、宗教领袖管控军队型.政党(政权)对军队通常采取从思想上、组织上管控,以及利用权威主义传统和给予较高待遇等方式进行管控.不同类型的两者关系对政局稳定性的影响也不尽相同,需要进行具体辩证分析.以历史和现实为依据,可以预见这些国家管控军队的主体、管控军队的方式、军队干政的可能性和军队性质将随着中东政治经济发展而随之发生变化.     

Failed States After 9/11: What Did We Know and What Have We Learned?

This paper addresses the relationship between accumulated knowledge and U.S. policy dealing with failed states and terrorism. The central thesis is threefold: (1) that more was known about the possible linkages between failing states and terrorism than appears in pre-9/11 U.S. policies; (2) that since 9/11 some important realignment of knowledge and practice has occurred, but it remains partial and incomplete; and (3) that new knowledge, especially about the policies to sustain and promote legitimate governance, needs to be generated in order to support an effective grand strategy for addressing the threats and challenges of the twenty-first century. The paper recommends such a grand strategy and, in addition to the required new knowledge, a significant reorganization of the U.S. national security policy-making apparatus. International studies curricula appear well suited for contributing to that new knowledge and the practitioners we require.     

伊拉克临管会的实权在哪里

7月 1 3日 ,伊拉克临时管理委员会宣告成立 ,临管会作为第一届临时政府机构 ,已得到部分国家的承认。临管会由美国负责监管伊拉克战后重建事务最高文职行政长官布雷默一手操纵 ,它具有两大特点 :1 .由美国任命 ,不是经民选产生 ;2 .布雷默对临管会的决定拥有否决权。仅这两点即可表明 ,临管会没有实权 ,说了算的是布雷默。目前伊拉克仍然在维持军事管制 ,是美国军管的天下。临管会与美国的关系只能是服从。尽管临管会按照伊拉克人口比例分配委员名额 ,什叶派穆斯林占多数 ,但不意味什叶派有望当选伊拉克未来总统。临管会究竟能发挥多大作用 ,有待密切关注     

Chinese Military Power: What Vexes the United States and Why?

The enhancement of Chinese military power over the past decade is generating ample debate over its meaning and consequences for American security interests. China's characterization in larger conceptions of U.S. national security strategy has experienced repeated shifts over the decades. China is now an arrived major power according to virtually all relevant power criteria, without U.S. policy makers conclusively resolving the implications of China's military modernization for American security interests. Comparable uncertainties bedevil Chinese thinking about American military power. The latent elements of strategic rivalry (if not outright confrontation) are beyond dispute, and could readily take deeper root in the bureaucratic processes of both countries. Without leaders in both systems fully imparting and communicating to one another their respective strategic equities in Asia and the Pacific, the emergence of a reconfigured regional security order fully accepted by both states remains very uncertain.     

United States Hegemony and Globalisation: What Role for Theories of Imperialism?

This article examines the return of the subject of imperialism to the social sciences since 2001, focusing in particular on Marxist and Marxist-related attempts to reconstruct an analysis of the US-led international order based on this concept. It does so by first examining attempts to update Marxist and Marxian work to understand contemporary globalisation, and then points to both the weaknesses of these approaches and international events that have undermined these theories. The paper then examines the return of imperialism in some detail. While the international order can still be described as imperialist, the article is sceptical of many accounts of the ‘new imperialism’. This is partly because the utility of classical theories was questionable in the pre-1914 era, and are even more so now. Theorising imperialism in turns of surplus capital or a spatial fix ignores the direction of capital flows, both before the First World War, and in the current era. Moreover, as Marxist and Marxian theories of globalisation point out, the current era is one of greater openness and international integration than the pre-1914 era, and there is far greater cooperation between the core capitalist states, as well as sovereign states in the developing world. Contemporary imperialism is characterised by US hegemony but also greater global interdependence, and US military domination does not guarantee its economic domination. At the same time however, US hegemony is closely related to neo-liberalism and, despite as much as because of US intentions, these same policies undermine the prospects for development in the ‘South’. In this respect, US attempts to ‘Americanise’ the world are undermined by US hegemony and the imperialism of free trade.     

Small States in the European Union: What Do We Know and What Would We Like to Know?

Recent developments in the European Union have created new opportunities and challenges for small member states, increasing the demand from policy-makers and diplomats for coherent and accessible analyses of the conditions and potential strategies of small states in the EU. Unfortunately, the academic literature on small states in the EU appears both diverse and fragmented: there is no agreement on how we should define a small state, what similarities we would expect to find in their foreign policies, or how they influence international relations. However, if we are to understand the challenges and possibilities currently faced by small EU member states, we need to systematise what we already know and to identify what we need to know. This article makes a modest contribution towards this goal by answering three simple questions: What is a small state in the European Union? How can we explain the behaviour of small EU member states? How do small states influence the European Union?     

Contracts,Norms, and Political Economy: Sub-Saharan State Credibility and the Microeconomic Foundations of Developmental Taxation

The article focuses on the microeconomic foundations and effects of the fragile tax base in Sub-Saharan Africa, which have been insufficiently taken into account by the international financial institutions. Two vicious circles are analysed. The first addresses the political economy of states: their inability to redistribute revenues reinforces a lack of credibility, leading to a reluctance by the majority of the population to pay taxes. Instead, there is ongoing reliance on private interpersonal transfers. This is compounded by the way markets interlock, creating negative effects in terms of efficiency. This vicious circle is related to a second one, which stems from the nature of the social contracts that link citizens to the state, and which are rarely of the individualistic-voluntary type characteristic of developed states. States, therefore, are often not part of the reciprocity chain, which explains the failure of some reforms in Africa.     

A Nested Game Approach to Political and Economic Liberalization in Democratizing States: The Case of South Korea

South Korea enjoyed high rates of economic growth until the mid–1990s. However in mid–1997 the country went into a severe economic crisis which ultimately resulted in a request for an IMF bailout. Leading up to the crisis, the government had embarked upon democratic liberalization but not much economic liberalization. This research explores why the government would lay the foundation for political reform without creating institutions capable of imposing economic reform on the politically powerful business sector. The absence of such institutions put the government in a position where it could not respond to the emerging economic crisis. The government's inability to act eroded its own position of power and governance. From this perspective, the government's inattention to economic reform appears irrational as it led to a weakening of its own position. We build a model of political and economic liberalization showing that the government was engaged in nested games (i.e., games in multiple arenas) with the political opposition, the labor unions, and the powerful business sector. We develop an argument that strong, antiliberal economic actors create incentive for the government in a democratizing state to refrain from economic liberalization, even while moving forward with democratic liberalization.     

国际气候治理规范的演进与传播：以印度为案例

国际气候治理的关键在于形成国际气候治理规范并传播到各个国家,使之被国际社会普遍接受和切实遵守。从国际层面上看,需要各个国家积极地参与国际气候谈判,建立气候治理共识;从国内的视角来看,需要国际气候治理规范落实到国家层面,对国内政治产生积极影响。国际规范和国内政策环境的契合程度是决定规范能否在国家内得到有效传播。由于国际政治与国内政治的分离与差异,二者的完全契合的并不多见,因此,国际规范的传播过程往往也是双方相互建构的过程,在这个过程中,国际规范和国内环境都不是一成不变的,国际规范发生着变化,国家行为也在规范的影响下发生变化。在气候谈判中,印度政府不断的重申“共同但有区别的责任”原则,强调本国远低于发达国家的人均排放量。但是随着气候谈判的深入以及气候规范传入国内后引起国内利益的分化,印度的气候立场有所调整,反映了在气候问题上的新认识。     

政治参与和政治稳定——关于当前拉美国家政局经常出现局部动荡的一种解释

拉美国家政治参与的主体主要有政党、社会运动、土著人组织、天主教会、工会、军队、国际组织和个人等。首先,上述任何参与既可能采取体制内或合法的参与形式,又有可能采取体制外的或非法的参与形式,这主要取决于一国和地区内各主体时代背景、政治经济条件以及参与主体的力量结构的不同。其次,上述任何主体体制外的政治参与都有可能影响到该国或地区的政治稳定。第三,拉美国家政局局部动荡的制度方面的原因,就是这些国家议会民主制度已经确立,但由于人民教育水平和政治觉悟的提高,文化、分配和政治上的需求迅速增加,与当前拉美的政治参与机制,如政党制度、三权分立等制度不健全之间产生矛盾,人民的愿望难以伸张,需求难以得到满足,对政府的信任度降低,转而采取非法参与形式,引发政治局部动荡。     

Political Risk: The Institutional Dimension

The argument developed in this paper is that the political arrangements and institutions that help leaders stay in office are not necessarily the ones that promote economic growth and prosperity. Indeed political leaders can remain in office more securely by rewarding the groups that keep them in power with privileged access to public resources. The net result is that the leadership remains in office but at the price of poor economic performance. It is not that the consequences of mismanaging the economy are unforeseen; rather the increased chances of an economic crisis are an acceptable price to pay if it means avoiding a political crisis which challenges the leaders' hold on power. Political survival, not peace and prosperity, is what determines the choice of policies. In this way bad economics can be good politics. The principal hypothesis addressed is that the smaller the size of the winning coalition the more the leadership depends on distributing private goods to the coalition members in order to purchase their loyalty, and, therefore the greater is the level of political risk. The ultimate effects of coalition size and the corruption attending the competition for private goods are the reduction of foreign direct investment per capita. These hypotheses were tested in a three stage least squares (3SLS) simultaneous estimation. The results generally supported the theoretical expectations.     

The Company You Keep: International Socialization and the Diffusion of Human Rights Norms

Does membership in Intergovernmental Organizations (IGOs) affect states' human rights behavior? One might expect IGOs with a specific human rights mandate, like the International Labour Organization or the Council of Europe, to have a positive effect on the human rights practices of their member states. But what about other sorts of IGOs, particularly those with no direct connection to human rights issues? This study employs cross-national data on abuses of "physical integrity rights" for 137 countries over the period 1982–2000 to test the hypothesis that IGOs can promote the diffusion of human rights norms by providing venues for interstate socialization. Recent empirical work on IGOs has suggested that this sort of socialization effect can play an important role in promoting democracy and can also lead to a more general convergence among states' interests. The results presented here suggest that IGOs can have a surprisingly powerful influence on states' human rights practices as a result of this process.