International Cooperation,Spoiling, and Transnational Terrorism

Do interstate relations influence the sources and targets of transnational terrorism? A considerable body of recent research suggests that the answer to this question is yes, and that one state may sponsor terrorist attacks to weaken the bargaining positions of other states. We suggest, in contrast, that positive or cooperative actions invite terrorist attacks from a different source: nonstate groups wishing to spoil interstate cooperation that they oppose. We assess this argument with a dyadic dataset using monthly data on transnational terrorist attacks and cooperative and noncooperative actions between states. Our results suggest that spoiling in response to interstate cooperation is an important determinant of transnational terrorism.     

Counter-terrorism and alien justice: the case of security certificates in Canada

This article examines the security certificate process that has been in effect in Canada since 1978 and the 2008 amendment (Bill C-3) of the Immigration and Refugees Protection Act. It highlights how democratic means can be used to subvert meaningful policy changes, and underscores the antinomy inherent in a nation-state's zeal to protect its citizens and appeals by a group of Arab Muslim men held under security certificates for suspected terrorist activities for their human rights to be recognised and respected by a state in which they are non-citizens. The problematic immanent in nation-states serving as guarantors of human rights and its concomitant misconstruing of human rights for citizenship rights are used to demonstrate that an ‘internal Other’ has been created in Canada. The security certificate, it is argued, in stipulating that detainees may request to be deported to countries where they regularly reside or hold nationality, makes them akin to Hannah Arendt's notion of the ‘rightless’ – people who have not only lost their home (i.e., polity) or ‘distinct place in the world’, but also their legal status. Consequently, even in an advanced democracy with grandiose claims to, and assurances of, individual liberty and fundamental freedoms, ‘rightless’ people face a great danger by the fact of being nothing beyond ‘human’.     

How International Reputation Matters: Revisiting Alliance Violations in Context

We investigate the role of international reputation in alliance politics by developing a signaling theory linking past alliance violations with the formation of future alliance commitments. In our theory, past violations Are useful signals of future alliance reliability conditional on whether they effectively separate reliable from unreliable alliance partners. It follows that states evaluating potential alliance partners will interpret past violations in their context when deciding to enter a new alliance, attaching less weight to violations in “harder times,” when many states are defaulting on their alliance commitments together, and more weight to violations in “easier times,” when fewer states are defaulting on their alliances. We test our theory and find that states are empirically more likely to form new alliances with states that violated in harder times compared to states that violated in easier times. The results have important implications for how scholars understand and estimate the impact of international reputation.     

加强中国与东盟能源安全合作的国际法思考

中国与东盟的能源安全合作已从现实和制度层面展开,但是仍然存在能源产品出口受到限制、能源运输通道安全受到威胁、南海问题向国际化方向发展等问题,应当注重国际法规范在保障中国与东盟能源安全合作中的作用,利用联合国条约体系、WTO协议和CAFTA协议,充分认识ECT和NAFTA协定的借鉴意义。     

核事故、能源结构调整与国际气候合作

福岛核事故将对各国能源结构调整和国际气候合作产生重大影响。从短中期来看,部分国家将对核能产业实施紧缩政策,化石能源比重可能增加,在国际气候合作中作出积极减排承诺的意愿也将降低,国际气候合作可能继续陷于僵局之中。在可预见的未来,人类需要通过追求核能安全来维护能源安全和气候安全。     

Andreas Wenger and Reto Wollenmann,eds. Bioterrorism: Confronting a Complex Threat

This article examines the transformation of the Chechen conflict from a predominately nationalist to jihadist struggle, and compares the similar changes that took place in the Kashmiri insurgency. Using global jihadist strategy and ideology, and the accompanying influence of Al Qaida, both conflicts are shown to have taken on a new ideology and to have expanded beyond previous areas of operation. In both instances, the political leadership wrapped themselves in the mantle of political Islam (Islamism) as ensuing violence led to rapid socioeconomic transformation and social breakdown, thus allowing foreign jihadists to exert power and take up/divert the cause. In the past few years, two main groups originating in Chechnya and Kashmir have taken on Western targets and become more indoctrinated in Al Qaida's global jihadist ideology: the Caucasus Emirate (CE) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). The opportunist franchising strategy of Al Qaida could come to play a role in the future of both groups, especially if the CE is able to coalesce into a more unified front. More importantly, the global jihadist attributes of the CE must begin to garner the same attention in the Western world as that of LeT.     

The Rise of the Islamic State and Changing Patterns of Cooperation in the Middle East

Interstate relations are highly interdependent: a change in relations between a pair of states can impact the relationship each of those states has with third parties, as well as relations among those third party states. This is particularly salient in cases where emerging security threats have the potential to destabilize existing patterns of interstate behavior. While the interdependent nature of states’ strategic responses to varied security challenges is often discussed and theorized in the international relations (IR) literature, it is less frequently modeled empirically. We present an approach for analyzing state relations that takes into account higher-order dependencies in the position of states within a network. We apply the approach to a unique context: diplomatic relations between Middle East and North African (MENA) states during a period in which the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) becomes a significant destabilizing force in the region. We find that the emergence of ISIL dramatically reshaped the region’s politics, improving relations among the region’s major powers while worsening relations for the states facing territorial threats from the group.     

International Socialization in Difficult Environments: The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe in Central Asia

This article explores the potential of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to be an agent of socialization in the five Central Asian Republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. In drawing on both rationalist and constructivist approaches to international socialization it is argued that the organization's inability to provide tangible material and political incentives as well as Central Asia's indigenous culture and institutions impede successful socialization dynamics. Moreover, the power-oriented elites consider the bulk of the OSCE activities to be a threat to their grasp on power, not only making socialization almost impossible but also making OSCE–Central Asian cooperation increasingly difficult to sustain. Recommendations to increase the OSCE's influence in the region concentrate on a better understanding of the cost-benefit calculation of Central Asian governments as well as a more responsive attitude to traditional institutions in the OSCE's approach toward the region.     

中俄海洋安全合作论析

中俄两国在太平洋、北冰洋等海域存在诸多共同的海洋安全目标和利益,双方的海洋安全合作不仅可以在理论层面丰富发展国家间海洋安全合作的内涵,也可在现实层面改善两国的海洋安全环境,维护两国海洋安全权益,同时为全球海洋安全治理做出贡献。21世纪以来,国际形势的变化和中俄关系的相向而行给中俄海洋安全合作营造了良好的外交环境。中俄两国多层级、多领域的合作机制,为两国海洋安全合作的开展提供了丰富的交流沟通平台。北极地区作为新疆域为中俄海洋安全合作带来了新的机遇。中国“一带一路”倡议和俄罗斯“向东看”发展政策也在不断拓展双方共同的海洋安全利益。与此同时,中俄两国的海洋安全合作也面临着“互信程度有待进一步提高、海上防卫方向不完全重合、世界海洋安全环境的复杂与敏感”等问题。在此情况下,通过加强中俄海洋经济的合作、积极构建海洋安全利益共同体以及合理规划中俄海洋安全合作的重点方向和拓展空间,可有效应对双方海洋安全合作面临的挑战。同时,推动多边海洋安全合作机制的建立不仅可为新时代中俄海洋安全合作的深化保驾护航,也有利于促进全球海洋安全的制度化建设。     

澜湄水资源安全与合作:流域发展导向的分析视角

进入21世纪,澜湄流域的人口增长、经济快速发展和城镇化,增加了各国用水需求,而各国对水资源的非协调性开发以及气候变化影响下的极端天气频发,导致水安全问题凸显,流域可持续发展面临压力。当前,澜湄流域水安全处于中等脆弱状态,但已建、在建和计划建设项目的累积影响将进一步加剧水资源脆弱性。为保障水安全,湄公河国家迫切期望加强彼此之间及与上游的中国在水资源问题上的磋商、协调和合作,其共同水安全需求从低到高可分为四个层次:防洪安全、供水安全、生态安全及水—粮食—能源协同安全。这四种安全需求是同时存在的,但在流域国家社会经济发展所处的不同阶段,亦有不同侧重。澜湄水安全合作既要满足流域各国水安全需求,又不能脱离流域的整体发展,因此应正确把握安全与发展的辩证关系,分阶段、有步骤地推进和深化:尽早建立风险防控协调机制,开展流域国家联合勘察和应对气候变化协同研究;2030年左右建立供水安全和生态安全合作机制;到21世纪中叶开展全流域水资源综合管理,实现水—粮食—能源协同安全。     

老挝的矿业开发及其国际合作

老挝有丰富的金、银、铜、铁、锡、铝、铅、锌、锰、煤、盐和宝石等矿藏。进入21世纪后，老挝政府将矿藏的全面开发利用列入10年发展规划和20年发展战略的主要开发和发展领域，并制定了一系列的地矿勘测、矿藏开发和矿业发展计划及招商项目。在矿业开发方面，老挝寄希望于国际社会的支持和合作，积极鼓励外国企业参与和投资。     

Terrorism: A matter for moral judgement

If politics and military affairs often raise moral questions, terrorism is a politico‐military matter that veritably flings moral problems in our faces. This essay, initially prepared for military chaplains, explains why terrorism is a form of political depravity and a form of armed activity bearing little resemblance to legitimate guerrilla warfare. Dr Harmon analyzes how terrorists nonetheless use arguments ‐ moral and political ‐ to try to transform public attitudes and even paralyze the body politic into inaction and impotence. Common arguments of the terrorists and their public supporters and apologists are analyzed and rebutted. Conclusions include the proposition that internecine blood‐letting among terrorists themselves, and the self‐defeating character of terrorist logic, make these ostensible architects of new societies more adept with the wrecking ball than with the blueprint.     

金砖国家粮食安全合作评析

粮食安全与否,对人、国家和国际体系的安全都意义重大。它所产生的威胁具有高度跨国性、扩散性、嬗变性、多层面性和多向度性,是典型的非传统安全。实现粮食安全,要超越以国家为中心的传统安全观念和手段,建立以共同、综合、合作、可持续的新安全观为基础的粮食安全治理体系,构建多层次和大规模的非传统安全共同体。金砖国家粮食安全合作,有利于提升各成员国的粮食安全水平,促进金砖国家落实《2030年可持续发展议程》,提高金砖国家参与全球粮食安全治理能力,推动全球粮食安全治理改革,构建金砖国家命运共同体。作为金砖国家非传统安全合作的重要组成部分,金砖国家粮食安全合作基本确立了合作架构,初步搭建农业科技信息平台,金砖农业实力不断壮大,全球粮食安全治理中实现有限合作,具有了金砖国家非传统安全共同体的雏形。但其仍然面临着合作动力减弱、合作机制不完善和合作领域亟待深化的挑战。只有金砖国家真正树立并践行新安全观,才能聚合各方诉求,加强合作动力,深化气候、科技创新、农业贸易投资便利化、信息交流与共享等领域的合作,完善政府、科研、企业三位一体的合作机制,推动全球粮食安全治理体系向更加有利于发展中国家的方向发展。     

国际安全制度与总体国家安全：一种理论分析

一国的总体国家安全虽然涉及方方面面,但国内政治和国际政治是贯穿这些领域的两条主线。国际安全制度构成了维护各领域国家安全的重要依托：国际安全制度能够塑造各国国家安全的外部环境,影响不同领域的国家安全利益,促进不同领域的国际安全合作,从而有利于实现各国的总体国家安全。二战结束以来,主权平等、不干涉内政和不使用武力解决国际争端等基本原则已经大大改善了全球安全环境,构成中小国家主权独立和国家安全的重要保障。同时,普遍性的国际安全原则和规范也可以应用到各个具体领域的安全规则的构建,从而直接影响各国维护相关领域国家安全的能力与利益。多边安全联盟会带来高水平的国际安全合作,促进联盟成员的总体国家安全,但也可能减损其他国家的安全水平,从而导致冲突。纯粹的区域性集体安全制度在提升各成员国家安全水平的同时,也具有合作安全和共同安全的优点。各国应该积极参与国际安全制度的构建,并有效运用国际安全制度提升本国的国家安全水平。     

南亚地区合作：从地区认同的构建到地区主义的形成

冷战的结束使地理空间的认同取代了意识形态的认同。随着经济全球化和政治多极化的进一步加深,地区合作成为各国谋求进一步发展的主要手段和行动取向。然而,由于历史和地缘政治的因素,南亚地区最大的两个国家印度和巴基斯坦一直没有实现关系正常化,阻碍了地区合作的进展。建立稳定的印巴关系,推进制度化建设和互信建设,培育地区认同,南亚地区可以通过合作安全实现地区整合。南亚地区实现合作安全取决于印度对自身在南亚的身份定位及对参与南亚地区合作自我意识的建立。     

Make Hegel great again: on Hegel’s epistemological contribution to critical terrorism studies

ABSTRACT

Despite the contribution of Foucaultian inspired approaches to Critical Terrorism Studies, this article invites us to consider Hegel’s epistemological insights. Foucault’s power-knowledge nexus is an invaluable intellectual tool which reveals how terrorism can be a “social fact”, yet it rests on a genealogical account of history and a passive notion of subjectivity determined by power (regimes). Hegelian philosophy maintains some of the benefits met in Foucault’s approach (sociality and contingency of knowledge) while providing a richer epistemological account. This article introduces Hegel’s epistemological insights to: i) challenge the portrayal of terrorism as a major external threat against the western liberal democratic states in the vein of “New Terrorism” or the “Clash of Civilizations”; and ii) domestically explore how the concept of liberal democratic rights, equality, freedom affect the interpretation of counter-terrorist bills, the threat perception of terrorism and domestic polarisation. Hegel’s insights critically interrogate the notions of “liberal rights”, “equality” and “freedom”, revealing how their ambiguous definition accommodates inherent contradictions which can fuel a controversial interpretation of counter-terrorist bills, leading to domestic polarisation and (reciprocal) radicalisation. Therefore, Hegel’s epistemological insights reveal how the defective definition of human rights, equality and liberty can amplify the effects of Terrorism and radicalisation.     

Terrorist profiling: human rights concerns

Post-9/11, law-enforcement agencies have expanded the processing of personal data for terrorist profiles; this is actually among the very reasons why personal data are processed in the first place. De facto terrorist profiles tend to be based predominantly on the use of such criteria as ‘race’, colour, religion, or ethnic and national origin to single out persons for enhanced scrutiny. Terrorist-profiling practices, therefore, raise the question as to their conformity with the right to privacy, the protection of personal data, and the principle of non-discrimination. This article critically examines to what extent, if any, terrorist-profiling practices may be regarded as compatible with the principle of non-discrimination and the fundamental rules pertaining to the protection of personal data. For this purpose, it looks at various approaches to defining profiling in the context of countering terrorism, as well as describing de facto manifestations of terrorist-profiling practices. The conclusion is that terrorist-profiling practices all too often fail to comply with the fundamental requirement that any restrictions on the right to privacy and the protection of personal data are adequately regulated, necessary and proportionate. The so-called ethnic profiling gives rise to particularly serious problems. It tends to assume the nature of ‘racial’ profiling and, accordingly, entail discriminatory effects that can result in feelings of humiliation and stigmatisation among the targeted groups. Since the risk of further marginalisation and even radicalisation within those groups also appears to be a very real consideration, the whole necessity of ethnic profiling in the name of countering terrorism must be called into question in a contemporary democratic society built on the principles of pluralism and respect for different cultures.     

在华印支难民与国际合作:一种历史的分析与思考

在华印支难民既是国际印支难民的重要组成部分,也有其自身特殊性。他们主要是中国与越南关系恶化之后越南反华排华的结果,中国政府一开始是以难侨来对待他们,1979年之后才主要从难民的角度进行处理。中国与国际社会在印支难民问题上积极合作,包括与联合国难民署的友好合作,以及与日本、澳大利亚和老挝等国家在印支难民外流、自愿遣返等问题上的双边合作。这些历史经验为近年来关于中国难民立法与政策的相关争论提供一些有意义的思考。     

印度与东盟军事与安全合作试析

印度与东盟的军事与安全合作日趋频繁，合作层次不断提高，印度在东南亚地区的军事影响力正在逐年增强。但由于印度自身的政治、经济和军事实力仍然有限，印度与东盟军事、安全合作存在许多制约因素。     

Why Target the “Good Guys”? The Determinants of Terrorism Against NGOs

Why would a terrorist group target nongovernmental organizations (NGOs)? We theorize that certain types of NGOs, namely those using mainly nonviolent pressure to advocate for changes in government human rights practices, influence the behaviors of potential terrorist group supporters in ways not liked by terrorist organizations. These advocacy-based human rights NGOs make terrorism attacks against the whole NGO sector more likely by changing the dynamics of terrorist-domestic audience relations in ways that threaten to limit audience support of terrorist groups. Other types of NGOs, especially those that do not have an advocacy focus, are less likely to directly challenge the terrorist organization or the state and can provide resources utilized by terrorist groups and potential sympathizers. Thus, their presence would not increase the likelihood of any NGO-targeted terrorist attacks. A global test of these dynamics supports our basic hypotheses.