Political Opposition in Russia: A Dying Species?

A specialist on Russian politics examines the evolution of political opposition in Russia from 1989 to 2005. The article specifies and employs a framework that focuses on the structure of the political elite and the political opportunity structure that it provides to oppositional forces. The framework is tested in brief case studies of three oppositional forces: communists, liberals, and democrats. Prospects for the future of political opposition in Russia are discussed.     

Russia’s image of China and Russian-Chinese relations

Views of China in today's Russia are characterized by great diversity. There are those who stand for strengthening ties with China to counterbalance the West; those who prefer Russia balancing between various power centers; and those who fear China as a growing geopolitical rival with a potential of expanding at the expense of Russian territory. Russia's government for the foreseeable future can be expected to advocate closer ties with China. However, the real question now is not whether a future Russian leadership will advocate a more hostile or more friendly course toward China, but if it will be able to support its wishes (whatever they may be) with the real resources necessary to pursue any consistent policy. Alexander Lukin received his first degree from the Moscow State Institute of Foreign Relations and a doctorate from Oxford University. He worked at the Soviet Foreign Ministry, Soviet Embassy to the PRC, and the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Soviet Academy of Sciences. From 1990 to 1993 he was an elected deputy of the Moscow City Soviet (Council), where he chaired the Sub-Committee for Inter-Regional Relations. He is the author of Russian Democrats: A Study in Political Culture (to be published by Oxford University Press in 1999) and numerous articles on Russian and Chinese politics and Russian-Chinese relations which have been published in Russia, the PRC, the U.S., the UK, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. In 1997/1998 he was a visiting research fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University. He is currently a research fellow at the Center for International Studies of the Moscow Institute of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Foreign Ministry (MGIMO-University) and an Associate in Research at the Fairbank Center for East Asian Research at Harvard University.     

Russia and the Kurds: A Soft-Power Tool for the Kremlin?

Russia has been the Kurds’ patron for more than two centuries, motivated primarily by the cynical desire to use them against adversaries in broader great-power games while casting itself as a champion of the Kurdish cause. Russia's longstanding and multifaceted relationship with the Kurds demonstrates that when it comes to geopolitics, the United States has more than brute force to contend with. The Russian state also utilizes soft power as an authoritarian state defines it: a tool of pragmatic leverage. While the Kurds are not a monolith, they are anxious about the trajectory of US politics and feel they cannot rely on anyone. The Russian state has opportunities to undermine American interests in places such as Syria and Iraq through its connections with Kurdish groups. This article reviews tsarist, Soviet, and post-Soviet policies toward the Kurds, including Kurdish communities in Russia. It concludes with a discussion about implications for the United States, given that Moscow will not let go of its Kurdish card, including in the context of the Ukraine invasion.     

Editor's Note: Special Feature – China,India, and the Future of Great-Power Politics

Abstract

This review essay is based upon Shuja Nawaz' Crossed Swords: Pakistan, Its Army, and the Wars Within and Ayesha Siddiqa's Military Inc.: Inside Pakistan's Military Economy. Based upon these two author's insightful volumes, this essay explores the roles of both military and civilian actors and institutions in the undermining of Pakistan's constitutional rule of law. While conventional wisdom places the onus disproportionately upon the military's penchant for interventionism, this review essay contends that the army has intervened only with the active assistance of civilian institutions which are subsequently further eroded with every military takeover. Thus any long-term solution to democratize Pakistan must focus both upon the army's presumed “right” and “obligation” to intervene in Pakistan's political system while simultaneously strengthening and professionalizing those civilian institutions needed for providing good governance with accountability.     

Understanding Russia’s energy turn to China: domestic narratives and national identity priorities

This study investigates whether, as part of a broader “Asian Energy Pivot,” Russia’s energy giant Gazprom refashioned its export strategy away from Europe, and what impact such a reorientation might have on the EU–Russia gas relationship. It uses four empirical cases to emphasize the domestic movers underlying Russia’s eastward shift in energy trade, developing a constructivist theory rooted in the dynamics of Russia’s dominant public narrative and the contours of domestic politics. It argues that Russia’s national interests changed as a result of how Russian policy-makers interpreted and reacted to the stand-off with Europe, in response to what they perceived as Europe’s attempt to isolate it economically and geopolitically. Russia’s Eurasianists, who had advocated the notion of a necessary turn to the East for a long time, positioned themselves as norm entrepreneurs and their new interpretation of the preexisting material incentives shaped the future course of action.     

The Baden-Württemberg State Election of 2011: A Political Landslide

After 58 years in the position of dominant political party, the Christian Democrats suffered from an electoral defeat in the Baden-Württemberg state election of 27 March 2011 and, as a result of the election, the first Green prime minister was elected and headed a state government formed by the Green and the Social Democrat parties. The main reasons for this political landslide were the unique constellation of political issues and the voters' attitudes towards the candidates for the office of prime minister. Instead of economic issues traditionally ‘owned’ by the Christian Democrats, the nuclear catastrophe in Fukushima and the bitter conflict over the reconstruction of the Stuttgart railway station brought ‘new politics’ issues to the top of the agenda. Moreover, never before in the history of German state elections was a prime minister running for re-election as unpopular as the leading candidate of Christian Democrats. Finally, many voters were convinced that it was just time for a change.     

Uzbekistan's ‘spirit’ of self-reliance and the logic of appropriateness: TAPOich and interaction with Russia

The article looks at Uzbekistan's political economy from the perspective of a logic of appropriateness, an approach that takes rules to be the underlying principle of action. The rules are mostly in line with a ‘spirit’ of self-reliance (mustaqillik), which has shaped Tashkent's international engagement since independence. From the perspective of those rules, the article reveals some important features of Russian–Uzbek relations, particularly the difficult and often tense negotiations over the future of the Tashkent Aviation Production Association (TAPOich). Self-reliance and the rules by which it was comprised were not, in the end, conducive to long-term cooperation with Russia in the aviation sector, where collaboration was first and foremost necessary.     

Japan’s Political Economy and Koizumi’s Structural Reform: A Rise and Fall of Neoclassical Economic Reform in Japan

For five years of his premiership, Jun’ichiro Koizumi bravely fought against politicians, bureaucrats, and interest groups to promote his structural economic reform. Fortunately, by the time he retired, Japanese economy got out of the depression. But the tide changed. In the July 2007 Upper House elections, the public was opposed to structural reform that Koizumi and Abe had advocated. Now it is not clear where Japanese political economy is likely to go. This paper will take a long-term view on the evolution of Japan’s political economy, and try to understand Jun’ichiro Koizumi’s structural reform in that long-term context.

Partisanship and Political Sophistication During and Outside of Election Times: A Longitudinal Analysis Using the German SOEP Survey 1984–2012

In many established democracies, partisan attachments play a central role in guiding citizens’ attitudes as well as their political behaviour. Most importantly, partisanship has an effect on what party citizens vote for on Election Day. In general, highly politically sophisticated citizens are more likely to identify with a party compared to the less politically sophisticated. This article argues that the strength of an individual’s partisan attachment varies considerably over time. More specifically, it finds that party attachments are stronger when Election Day is close. The less politically sophisticated in particular benefit from such an effect and develop stronger attachments at election times.