Terrorism as theater: Analysis and policy implications

In some regards the production of terrorism resembles the production of culture, especially television and theater. Terrorism is a spectacle produced for viewers, many of whom live apart from the violent staged events. Spectacular theater and the telling of memorable stories are inputs for fundraising and motivating subsequent terrorists. This understanding of terrorist motivation has concrete policy implications.     

Positivism and its limitations for strategic intelligence: a non-constructivist info-gap critique

Knowledge underlies rational choice between options. Predictive optimization is the prioritization of options according to their predicted outcomes based on available knowledge. The epistemological justification of predictive optimization is based on positivism, which asserts that facts and laws about the world exist and are discoverable. However, knowledge of human affairs in strategic adversarial interactions is often severely limited and erroneous: residual uncertainty is often vast. This results especially from deception and innovation by the adversary which introduce deep Knightian uncertainty. Consequently, predictive optimization is unreliable: outcomes may differ substantially from predictions. An alternative strategy for prioritization of options is info-gap robust satisficing: achieve critical goals (that are adequate but perhaps suboptimal) over a wide range of deviation of reality from current knowledge. The epistemological justification of robust satisficing is based on extending positivism to acknowledge and manage the unknown. Prioritization of options by robust satisficing manages both the limitations of knowledge and the need for achieving critical goals. This critique of positivism is not constructivist. Rather, we extend positivism to account for highly deficient knowledge. We present several examples and conclude by discussing the relation between inductive, abductive and deductive inference.     

Cyber operations and useful fools: the approach of Russian hybrid intelligence

This article argues that Russian intelligence has achieved recent success in influencing democratic elections and referenda by combining the traditional Human Intelligence (HUMINT) discipline of manipulating useful fools with cutting edge cyber tactics, including hacking, phishing, social engineering, and weaponizing purloined information. This essay further argues that this synthesis yields greater effects than the sum of its parts. Given its potency, democracies and NATO members should expect to confront this type of threat more often. The 2016 American presidential election is used as a case study to conceptualize Russian hybrid intelligence, a new term reminiscent of Soviet ‘complex active measures’ and updated for the twenty-first century.     

Local racial context,campaign messaging,and public political behavior: A congressional campaign field experiment

Local racial contexts influence public opinion and voting behaviors. This paper argues that differences in community racial demographics also change public political behavior and influence the effectiveness of different campaign appeals to change public political behaviors of white Americans. Using data from an experiment run by a congressional primary campaign, I examine the responses of white Republicans to display a yard sign of a white Republican running against a Latino Republican. Consistent with theories of racial threat, whites in Latino neighborhoods were more likely to be willing to post yard signs. Moreover, the results also show that the effectiveness of different campaign appeals varies by neighborhood racial context. These findings show that racial diversity affects the public political behaviors of white Americans and, more importantly, changes the effectiveness of different campaign appeals.     

Subnational political regimes and formal economic regulation: Evidence from Russian regions

The paper contributes to the studies of effects of political regimes on public policies by looking at a previously unexplored aspect of this issue: the propensity of political regimes to create vast and extensive formal regulation. To study this topic, it applies subnational comparative method and uses a dataset of subnational regions of Russia, which provides a unique opportunity for a large-N investigation of the research question because of substantial variation of regional political regimes and regulatory environments and because of availability of a proxy for comparing the use of formal regulation across regions. The paper shows that more competitive regimes are more likely to expand the formal law than less competitive ones; however, the implications of this expansion of formal law for the economy are ambiguous.     

Integration of strategic and operational intelligence during the Peninsular war

Wellington is well known for his understanding of the importance of intelligence, but so far history has recorded that he presided over a one-man intelligence department, himself being the only analyst of what proved to be a massive quantity of raw information. New research highlighted in this article reveals that this has been an inaccurate interpretation. The British government also acted to establish a civilian network of correspondents and agents communicating with the British ambassadors to Spain and Portugal. Wellington's main priority was to integrate the ‘strategic intelligence’ collected by government agents with his own ‘operational intelligence’. Instead, analysis was conducted more by Wellington's subordinates in the field, applying their personal localized expertise to the information they received. In this way, an early and primitive form of the staff system later developed by the Prussians was created in the Peninsular War.     

Good literature and bad history: The 9/11 commission's tale of strategic intelligence

Uncritical acceptance of the findings of the 9/11 Commission has obscured how the commission intentionally misrepresented pre-attack strategic intelligence on the threat from Al Qaeda. The commission staff used such techniques as highly selective use of material, partial truths, irrelevant references, plays on words, quotations out of context, and suggestive language leading to false inferences to portray as weak what had been a strong strategic analytical performance. The commission's misrepresentation corrupted history, damaged public understanding of the role of intelligence in counterterrorism, and helped to build support for a reorganization scheme that has made US counterterrorist intelligence worse rather than better.     

Augmenting human cognition to enhance strategic,operational, and tactical intelligence

The unprecedented increase in the volume and velocity of data collected by open source and classified platforms is simultaneously disrupting and transforming the intelligence enterprise. This article posits a technology-based approach for augmenting human cognition by leveraging high-performance computing and artificial intelligence applications to enhance the intelligence enterprise’s capability to identify, synthesize, and act on the key intelligence-relevant information elements embedded in those data. Adapting AI to the intelligence enterprise and national security decisions more broadly thus facilitates rapidly bringing to bear the essential human element of interpreting context and intent amid an otherwise insurmountable cascade of data.     

De Witt Clinton Poole,the foreign nationalities branch and political intelligence

The Foreign Nationalities Branch of the Office of Strategic Services served as an important source of political intelligence for the Roosevelt administration during World War II. The philosophy of the Branch's most influential director, DeWitt Clinton Poole, and his organization's work among Yugoslav‐Americans, illustrates the concerns that ethnic politics generated in the United States, as well as appreciation of the role that ethnics could play in psychological warfare and postwar anti‐Soviet propaganda.     

Debating globalization: cosmopolitanism and communitarianism as political ideologies

Economic, cultural and political systems formerly bounded by the borders of nation states are increasingly globalized. Politicians, civil society and other societal actors engage in publically debating issues related to globalization. Whether conflicts consolidate to form a stable cleavage depends among other factors on the extent to which they become ideologically underpinned. As the basis for such an underpinning, we identify philosophical debates about justice between globalists and statists and between universalists and contextualists as raw material that political entrepreneurs active in the public sphere can draw upon. On this basis, we identify four major bones of contention that could provide the core of such ideological underpinning: the permeability of borders; the allocation of authority between levels; the normative dignity of communities; and the patterns of justification. One ideal typical combination of those four components can be labelled cosmopolitanism—combining arguments from globalists and universalists; another communitarianism, combining statist and contextualist arguments. The more these two ideal types feature as political ideologies in public debate, the more do debates about globalization solidify into a new cleavage. We develop a conceptual framework which can subsequently be used in support of empirical research analysing the ideological foundations of globalization conflicts.     

Neoliberal feminism as political ideology: revitalizing the study of feminist political ideologies

Abstract

The emerging literature on neoliberal feminism appears to signal the revitalization of the study of feminist ideologies, suspended since the mid-1980s. However, it is argued here that scholars tend to conceptualize neoliberal feminism in a way that inhibits ideological analysis, as exemplified in Nancy Fraser’s Fortunes of Feminism. They take classifications of feminist political ideologies from the 1980s as representative of the only true feminisms, and thus view neoliberal feminism as a perversion, rather than an outgrowth, of earlier feminisms. This account of the emergence of neoliberal feminism is both historically inaccurate and politically problematic: it positions feminists as passive in the face of an overpowering neoliberal agency, and limits feminists’ capacity to imagine themselves as agents of political and ideological change. Building on Michael Freeden’s work on political ideologies, an alternative account of neoliberal feminism is offered, one that locates feminist agency in the production of new feminist ideologies.     

“God of vengeance and of reward?”: The economy and presidential popularity

The relationship between the economy and the political fate of incumbents is reexamined empirically by proposing seven multivariate statistical models representing major approaches found in the literature. These models are tested empirically to determine the influence of aggregate economic conditions on presidential popularity as measured by Gallup Poll data from 1950 to 1974. Analysis suggests (1) that inflation and military expenditures constitute consistently significant influences on popularity and (2) that this influence is best detected in an Almon distributed-lag model which allows for an initial political response that increases cumulatively and remains strong for several months before diminishing.The title quotation comes from V. O. Key, Jr.,Politics, Parties, and Pressure Groups (5th ed), New York: Thomas Y. Crowell, 1964, p. 568. I am indebted to Edward R. Tufte for calling it to my attention.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the meetings of the Public Choice Society in New Orleans, March 1977.     

Where you lead we will follow: a longitudinal study of strategic political communication in election campaigning

The ways in which election campaigns are planned, organized, and conducted have changed considerably during recent decades, and political parties constantly employ new ideas and practices in order to communicate as strategically and effectively as possible. The concept of strategic political communication refers to an organization's purposeful management of information and communication to achieve certain political goals. In this article, we focus on the role of the individual political party in developing election campaigning. The empirical material covers the 2002, 2006, and 2010 Swedish national election campaigns and illustrates how political parties lead and follow each other in the development of strategic political communication. By exploring party agency, this article contributes to the understanding of how ideas and practices of strategic political communication emerge and develop over time in election campaigning.     

Populism as political communication style: An empirical study of political parties' discourse in Belgium

Abstract.  The scientific debate about populism has been revitalised by the recent rise of extreme-right parties in Western Europe. Within the broad discussion about populism and its relationship with extreme-right, this article is confined to three topics: a conceptual, an epistemological and an empirical issue. First, taking a clear position in the ongoing definition struggle, populism is defined primarily as a specific political communication style. Populism is conceived of as a political style essentially displaying proximity of the people, while at the same time taking an anti-establishment stance and stressing the (ideal) homogeneity of the people by excluding specific population segments. Second, it is pointed out that defining populism as a style enables one to turn it into a useful concept that has too often remained vague and blurred. Third, drawing on an operational definition of populism, a comparative discourse analysis of the political party broadcasts of the Belgian parties is carried out. The quantitative analysis leads to a clear conclusion. In terms of the degree and the kinds of populism embraced by the six political parties under scrutiny, the extreme-right party Vlaams Blok behaves very differently from the other Belgian parties. Its messages are a copybook example of populism.     

Social science mandarins: Policymaking as a political formula

This article strongly suggests that the customary sequence of events starting with science and terminating with policy-making lacks empirical confirmation; that in fact, the actual sequence of events is primarily determined by policy stances and terminates with some form of scientific investigation, geared however to legitimation rather than explanation. Four empirical case studies are examined: Brown v. Board of Education; Project Clear; Project Camelot; and the Moynihan Report. In each case it is evident that the causal model most appropriate is one that recognizes the legitimation role of social science as dominant. The article concludes with an examination of key factors in the present structure of government and science that makes the teleological model central; it also points out that such a model is neither better nor worse than the customary ways of viewing the relationships; only different in implication and explication.     

Campzenship: reimagining the camp as a social and political space

This article engages with current debates on the sociology of camps and camp-like institutions in contemporary society. Drawing on ethnographic material collected in Italy in ‘nomad camps’ where forcibly displaced Roma from former Yugoslavia were sheltered in the 1990s and 2000s, it argues that Agamben's conceptualisation of the camp as a space of exception, by constructing the camp as other to an idealised notion of citizenship and the rule of law, offers limited purchase for a sociological investigation of the complexity and ambivalence of social relations in and around camps as well as residents' everyday practices and experiences of political membership. Focusing on the resources, entitlements and ‘rights’ of camp residents and their interactions with state, regional and local authorities and non-governmental actors, this article invites to de-exceptionalise the camp and the experiences of its residents, and proposes the concept of ‘campzenship’ to capture the specific and situated form of political membership produced in and by the camp. Getting closer to the camp and its inhabitants through the adoption of an ethnographic gaze reveals the camp space as paradigmatic of the stratification and diversification of political membership in contemporary society, a social and political terrain where rights, entitlements and obligations are reshaped, bended, adjusted, neglected and activated by and through everyday interactions.     

Caricatures,cartoons, spoofs and satires: political brands as butts

• A theory of caricature is used to analyse and explain the nature of—and reactions to—a controversial political cartoon depicting Jacob Zuma, the highly publicized president of South Africa, and how the cartoon both played on and affected his political image and brand. Jacob Zuma has crafted his image as a person who has overcome insurmountable injustices to lead his nation. The cartoon directly questioned Zuma's claims of discrimination by the justice system. The cartoonist (Zapiro) was able to use the cartoon to further solidify Zuma's image as an embattled yet contentious and divisive leader. The framework that follows depicts the spoofing of a political brand, in a marketing environment in which parody and spoofing of more conventional products and services are increasingly common.

Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Life space and social networks as political contexts

Based on data collected in the course of the September and November 1980 waves of the National Election Studies, this contextual analysis of interpersonal relations in social networks presents two major findings: First, the neighborhood as a geographical unit does not appear to be a perceptually salient environment for political behavior; and second,particular neighbors, individually linked to a voter, appear to constitute a social network that has an independent impact on partisan affect for the political parties and their candidates as well as on stability or change in vote preferences as the electoral season goes forward. Thus, although the neighborhood appears to be of minor importance as a politicalenvironment, social relations among particular neighbors result in an interpersonalcontext that has an impact on political behavior.This article is being published simultaneously as Chapter 12 in Heinz Eulau,Politics, Self and Society (Cambridge, MA: Harvard UniversityPress). Copyright 1986 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College.