Ethics, Foreign Policy, and Liberal Wars: The Role of Restraint in Moral Decision Making

Can morality be a basis for making foreign policy? What happens when it is? The dangers in using morality to justify violence are discussed in the light of the just war tradition and liberalism. An ethical case for the importance of restraint in moral decision making, especially with regard to unnecessary but desirable wars within liberalist approaches to foreign policy, is presented.     

The Influence of Advisers and Decision Strategies on Foreign Policy Choices: President Clinton's Decision to Use Force in Kosovo

In the following paper, I analyze the influence of advisers and domestic political factors on President Clinton's decision to use force against Slobodan Milosevic and the Serbs in Kosovo in March 1999. I present an analysis and examination of President Clinton's decision-making process, using press reports, personal speeches, etc. In other words, I attempt to trace the process by which Clinton came to the decision to use force in Yugoslavia. Specifically, using the poliheuristic theory, I argue that President Clinton's decision was influenced by noncompensatory domestic political calculations and the strong influence of his Secretary of State, Madeleine K. Albright. Examining how advisers interact with one another, their status in the advisory group, and the manner in which presidents solicit information from advisers will further our understanding of how, when, and under what conditions national security-level decision makers make decisions.     

When and How Parliaments Influence Foreign Policy: The Case of Turkey's Iraq Decision

Turkey's decision on its role in the Iraq war in 2003 illustrates the power—and limits—of parliaments as actors in foreign policy. Traditionally, assemblies are not seen as important players in the foreign policies of parliamentary democracies. Instead, cabinets are generally considered the chief policymaking authorities. If the government enjoys a parliamentary majority, legislatures typically support the cabinet, if they are brought into the process at all. The March 1, 2003 vote by the Turkish parliament to not allow the United States to use Turkey as a base for the Iraq invasion challenges this conventional wisdom on parliamentary influence (in addition to many interest-based explanations of foreign policy). This paper examines this decision in the context of the role of parliaments in foreign policies and explores the relationships between parliamentary influence, leadership, intraparty politics, and public opinion.     

Decision Making in Autocratic Regimes: A Poliheuristic Perspective

This paper applies the poliheuristic theory of foreign policy decision making to non-democratic states. Poliheuristic theory asserts that state leaders assign primary importance to their political survival; however, the meaning of "the political" varies dramatically from country to country. Furthermore, the types of actors who hold leaders politically accountable also vary between countries. Consequently, leaders often pursue vastly different means of ensuring their political survival. The author uses the common distinction between single-party, military, and personalist autocracies to show that apparently arbitrary differences in autocratic leaders' political concerns actually vary in systematic and potentially predictable ways. Because this argument is generalized to non-democratic states as a whole, it has important implications for the ways in which democratic states craft their policies toward autocracies.     

对越南国际直接投资法律政策问题研究

2014年以来,越南对以《投资法》为代表的投资法律制度进行了大幅度的修订。这些体现了越南政府改善本国商业环境的决心,同时也增强了外国投资者的投资信心。但是这些新的政策法规在执行过程中也存在困难和障碍。中国投资者到越南从事直接投资活动应注重对当地现行法规政策的了解、加强对项目的风险评估,从而降低投资风险。     

Foreign Policy Making Under Koizumi: Norms and Japan's Role in the 2003 Iraq War

Japan's policy toward the 2003 Iraq War is a test of the constructivist argument about the weight of norms as opposed to material systemic factors in foreign policy making. Constructions of external threats and interests were contested between a largely realist-minded elite around prime minister Koizumi bent on Japan's remilitarization and those still holding to antimilitarist norms. This contest is traced in an analysis of the policy-making process, including the role of bureaucratic and political institutions, the opposition parties and the public. Indicative of the power of norms, Koizumi was forced to compromise his ambition to use the Iraq crisis to help make Japan a normal great power.     

建构主义:解读外交政策决策的一种方法--以6O年代美国对华政策为例

建构主义是西方国际关系理论中的新生流派.目前,我国学者对于这一流派的认识基本上停留于介绍和引进阶段,而对其实证价值鲜有关注.本文试图运用这一理论的核心观点来解读外交政策决策的形成.     

印度国大党联合政府外交抉择初探

印度国大党在 2 0 0 4年的印度大选中获胜并为首组成“团结进步联盟”联合政府 ,新政府的外交纲领和政策走向引起国际社会的广泛关注。对新政府执政初期的外交政策进行观察 ,可看出它与前届政府相比既有明显的连续性 ,也有某些微妙的变化 ,这体现在某些重要的双边关系及对重大国际问题的某些看法上。但即使新政府强调外交的新面貌 ,但“变”与“不变”应是相对的 ,宣称的新特征目前仍主要体现为姿态 ,不少制约性因素将继续发挥作用。因此 ,需进一步密切关注国大党联合政府的外交政策、尤其是印美关系和中印关系的发展走向。     

印度外资政策改革：历程、经验教训和启示——基于文献梳理视角解读

随着外资政策改革不断深化,印度外资政策问题受到国内外学者的广泛关注,相关文献也逐渐增多。本文从印度外资政策改革历程、印度利用外资的经验教训、印度外资政策对中国的启示等方面对印度外资政策改革的研究文献进行梳理,以期深度解读和预测印度外资利用情况。     

U.S. Foreign Aid and Foreign Policy: Building Strong Relationships by Doing It Right!

Foreign aid policies cannot be more successful than their implementation, which inherently involves people and institutions. But people have their own interests and cultural frameworks, and institutions are inevitably grounded in culture and politics. Inattention to the agendas of individuals involved on both sides of foreign aid to Central and Eastern Europe played a major role in its shortcomings. A recent court decision holding two Harvard university scholars guilty of defrauding the U.S. government while running a flagship project to reform the Russian economy underscores the pitfalls in outsourcing traditional functions of government to small, well-connected groups that are not fully accountable in serving the public interest. Drawing on the author's experience studying informal systems and networks over several decades, this article illuminates the importance of foreign policy and aid relationships—how they are set up, who wins and who loses, and how their lack of accountability can contribute to the derailment of nation-building and constructive relations among countries.     

The Impact of Institutionalized Ideas in Coalition Foreign Policy Making: Turkey as an Example, 1991–2002

This study is an attempt to fill an important gap in three distinct yet closely related fields: international relations (IR), comparative politics (CP), and foreign policy analysis (FPA). On a more general level, the study examines the conditions under which domestic ideas influence foreign policy. More specifically, it investigates the role of institutionalized ideas that are represented at the highest levels of the decision-making structure in foreign policy decision outcomes. The theoretical framework advanced in this study calls for three interrelated steps to be taken in examining the relationship between ideas and state action: (1) a clear conceptualization of ideas, (2) a careful analysis of the institutionalization of these ideas, and (3) a methodological exploration of the discord among political actors who represent them. The framework proposes that coalition governments present a potential venue for analyzing and operationalizing how the "battles of ideas" at the decision-making level affect foreign policy choices. The study finds that institutionalized ideas are highly influential in shaping foreign policy choices in coalition government settings when several conditions are fulfilled. These conditions are categorized into three subheadings: (1) reasons to enter into coalition governments, (2) nature of coalition governments, and (3) characteristics of parties. The findings of this study contribute to general IR, CP, and FPA literatures on the role of ideas, coalition government foreign policy making, and comparative foreign policy. The study also contributes to the literature on Turkish politics by entering coalition policy making in Turkish Foreign Policy and showing that Turkish political parties are important actors in foreign policy making.     

The Bush Doctrine: The Foreign Policy of Republican Empire

The dominant narrative concerning the Bush Doctrine maintains that it is a dangerous innovation, an anomaly that violates the principles of sound policy as articulated by the Founders. According to the conventional wisdom, the Bush Doctrine represents the exploitation of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, by a small group of ideologues—the “neoconservatives”—to gain control of national policy and lead the United States into the war in Iraq, a war that should never have been fought. But far from a being a neoconservative innovation, the Bush Doctrine is, in fact, well within the mainstream of U.S. foreign policy and very much in keeping with the vision of America's founding generation and the practice of the statesmen in the Early Republic. The Bush Doctrine is only the latest manifestation of the fact that U.S. national interest has always been concerned with more than simple security.     

Clarifying Decisions: Assessing the Impact of Decision Structures on Foreign Policy Choices During the 1970 Jordanian Civil War

This study examines situation versus personality effects on foreign policy decision making. It proposes that while both factors are important in explaining decision outcomes, the relative importance of each in a given circumstance is a function of the structural constraints imposed by the policy decision environment. Following Maoz (1990) and Maoz and Astorino (1992b), a decision-game theoretic framework is used to "reconstruct" policy decision problems in order to study individual and environment effects concurrently. The substantive focus is the ten decisions that comprised the major events of the 1970 Civil War in Jordan. The decision reconstructions are used to rate these decision tasks according to the presence and degree of structural constraint. Although it represents a preliminary test, the decision analysis indicates that in structurally constrained decision settings, policymakers tended to respond in accordance with environmental clues, while response variability and evidence of simplifying decision heuristics was greater in more fluid decision settings.     

Applied Decision Analysis: Utilizing Poliheuristic Theory to Explain and Predict Foreign Policy and National Security Decisions

In recent years, more than 40 articles and chapters have utilized Poliheuristic Theory to analyze critical decisions made by foreign leaders and U.S. presidents. In this paper, I introduce the Poliheuristic Procedure—a series of steps that one can use to explain or predict decisions by world leaders. Subsequent articles in this Symposium present examples of poliheuristic analyses of decisions made by Presidents Carter, Clinton, Gorbachev, Mussaref and Saddam Hussein. These case studies provide strong support for Poliheuristic Theory: leaders use a two-stage process in making decisions: they first use simple heuristics to eliminate alternatives based on the avoid-major-political-loss principle, and then use more analytic calculations in selecting an alternative from a subset of surviving alternatives.     

赫鲁晓夫时期苏联对外政策论析——以苏联与西方国家关系为例

赫鲁晓夫执政后,在对外政策上重申执行和平共处原则,外交实践中主动对西方国家采取了一系列和解行动,在一定程度上打破了苏联与西方国家关系停滞不前的状态。但是,由于对形势认识的偏差、体制固有的弊端、理论上的缺陷以及外部因素的影响,其对外政策也有许多失误。因此,科学考察和客观评析赫鲁晓夫时期苏联对外政策对于我们今天制定对外政策和处理对外关系具有重要意义。     

论印度外资政策的演变

印度被殖民的恶梦可溯源至以外资面貌出现的东印度公司。因此，独立以后的印度社会，对外资具有天然的恐惧、厌恶和抵制。但基于殖民经济的固有特色，以尼赫鲁为首的印度资产阶级统治精英认识到立即驱逐外资的可怕后果。这决定了印度对待外资的矛盾性。观察印度独立60年来的外资政策轨迹，我们可以发现印度外资政策的三大特点：实用主义；理性、务实、灵活；非意识形态性和非超国民待遇性。     

俄罗斯对外政策演进的阶段性总结--《当代俄罗斯对外政策和安全(1991-2002)》介评

《当代俄罗斯对外政策和安全(1991-2002)》①是由Т.А.莎克琳娜主持,由俄罗斯外交部直属莫斯科国际关系大学、俄罗斯国际研究联合会、信息—科学—教育中心共同编纂的全面反映1991-2002年俄罗斯对外政策演进的多卷本学术论文集。这套文集于1999年第一次出版,分为2卷3本。文集出版后很快成为俄罗斯国际关系、国际政治、俄罗斯现代史的通用教材。2002年文集再版并在保留第一版全部内容的基础上,增收了1999-2001年发表的有关文章,形成了较为完整的体系。新版文集的第一部分是在1999年版基础上新增的内容,即“当代世界:由两极世界走向全球化”,…     

Invoking Teddy: The Inspiration of John McCain's Foreign Policy

Since John McCain's first aspirations for the presidency became public in 1999, he has often indicated his affinity for Theodore Roosevelt as his role model. Though McCain is not alone in admiring Roosevelt, his 2008 bid for the White House offers an opportunity to observe Roosevelt's legacy, and particularly how that legacy has impacted foreign policy thinking. The central argument of this article is that John McCain's impression of Roosevelt is as a composite of realist and idealist standpoints. This perception of Roosevelt is outlined in McCain's own publications and in his advocacy for foreign policy as a representative, senator, and presidential contender in both 2000 and 2008. John McCain's own style of statecraft is also conducted in full recognition of the legacy of Theodore Roosevelt.